With two weeks remaining in the regular season, much is still to be decided both in terms of playoff positioning and the order of the upcoming draft. Five teams are still eligible to land the top pick.
The Texans remain in pole position to hold the No. 1 spot, but their win over the Titans (coupled with the Bears’ losing streak extending to eight games) leaves Chicago just a half-game away. The fact that the Bears would likely select a defensive player rather than a quarterback with the top pick adds considerable intrigue to the potential implications of them ending up with that slot.
With the Browns continuing to struggle even with Deshaun Watson back from suspension, there is a distinct possibility that four first-rounders which changed hands (including Cleveland’s top 2023 pick, part of the package they sent to Houston for Watson) land in the top 10. Another premium selection would obviously soften the blow of losing out on the No. 1 spot from the Texans’ perspective, should that take place.
The final Wild Card spot in each conference is still being contested by several teams, resulting in a logjam of 7-8 squads in the middle of the order. Several head-to-head matchups will be played out between those clubs, which could lead to plenty of change in their positioning over the next two weeks. The race for both the AFC and NFC South titles will also have a significant impact on the final order, given the average (at best) record each division’s winner will have at the end of the regular season.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 17:
- Houston Texans: 2-12-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-12
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-11
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-10-1
- Atlanta Falcons: 5-10
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Carolina Panthers: 6-9
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6-9
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-8
- Tennessee Titans: 7-8
- New England Patriots: 7-8
- New York Jets: 7-8
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-8
- Green Bay Packers: 7-8
- Detroit Lions: 7-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-8
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-8
- Washington Commanders: 7-7-1
- New York Giants: 8-6-1
- Los Angeles Chargers: 9-6
- Baltimore Ravens: 10-5
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
- Dallas Cowboys: 11-4
- Cincinnati Bengals: 11-4
- Kansas City Chiefs: 12-3
- Minnesota Vikings: 12-3
- Buffalo Bills: 12-3
- Philadelphia Eagles: 13-2
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice
crazy idea,
would Russell Wilson be worth two 1st round picks for the Patriots?
if I’m reading the contract correctly, Patriots would ONLY be paying him 10 Mil per year.
The Broncos while eating around 200 Mil could still net a decent return netting 2 1st rounders.
I think we’d all like to see Russell in a different situation.
No one would trade one 1st for Wilson right now, even at a reduced contract, and the Broncos aren’t going to sign up for a $68 million dead cap hit in 2024. They’re going to count on a different coaching staff being a different enough situation.
I’m not a capologist, but that math doesn’t sound right to me. Just hypothetically, saying it is, I still can’t see a scenario it’d be worth it to Denver to eat 200m for two firsts. You’re not even talking high firsts. I don’t know how you build a team with the dead cap money.
I think the only option Denver has is to go into next year with Russ and a new coach, and just cross their fingers it works. If Russ is cooked (and I think he is, for the record), you tear it all down and rebuild after next season by trading whatever you can for picks.
he might not even be worth 2 1sts if you wait another season ..
Maybe if you mean the broncos attach 2 first rounders with Wilson…..that I could see…..
I bet if the only 2 choices were trading a first rounder for Wilson, or forfeiting it, every team would choose to forfeit it.
Except maybe the Colts.
if it’s 10 mil per season he’d be a pretty sweet pickup for Patriots
I can’t tell if you’re a bad Patriots fan or a bad Broncos fan.
Patriots with Mac Jones and a mid round pick
or Patriots with Russell Wilson on a cheap contract
literally no one’s been able to provide any real information on how Russell’s contract would work if traded.
so obviously I’m not a “bad fan” and have a higher football iq than the ppl belittling this instead of contributing factors.
I admit I don’t know what Wilson’s contract would look like if traded..but my opinion is it doesn’t matter, if he doesn’t play any better than he has this year.
so as a steelers fan I love Kenny’s potential.
but if he hadn’t fallen and steelers had similar mid-round record with Mitch and maybe a Corral at QB
then I’d definitely be open to RW for 10 mil per season.
think he’d certainly be worth a 1st rounder , maybe 2 when we’re talking that kind of discount financially for a QB who is still worth at least 10 mil (good backup money)
so I find a team like Patriots or Jets may have similar opinion.
..as for Denver, they’re stuck with a bad contract no matter what.
could at least get 2 1st round picks out of it
Denvers screwed no matter what
I don’t see how contract guarantees would void with a trade. Players would not sign up for such with or without no-trade clauses. It is common for players to modify contracts moving salary to signing bonus to spread costs out for a team trading for them. There are also situations where teams agree to continue to pay a portion of a players salary when traded if they really want that player gone.
I think the Broncos are stuck with the Russell Wilson costs and due to this year’s performance it’s unlikely anyone wants to risk 2022 being a fluke. The signing bonus accelerating to current or current plus following year would be a cap strain for Denver. Check out Overthecap.com for more info.
no one’s saying it would void his salary tho
Denver would be on the hook in my estimation
I get ur sentiment that Broncos wouldn’t want to risk 2022 being a fluke.
However if the same results continue from Wilson this will be a dire situation.
This could turn into trading him for a single 4th round pick in 2025..
so two 1sts and washing their hands of him wouldn’t be a bad option (sans all the money that’s wasted either way)
I don’t think Denver would be paying any of his salary post-trade unless they agree to do so in order to facilitate the trade (like they did with Von Miller, but in that case it was so the Rams could fit him under their cap).
In Wilson’s case, I feel they’d have to eat a significant amount to get a decent return..which I’m not sure they’d do, or if league rules would allow it.
Therefore, they’d probably have to restructure it PRIOR to trading him, then the acquiring team do so again to satisfy his ego.
In any instance, I can’t see Denver netting 2 1st rounders for him. He’s just not that good right now to justify it.
I really wish we could get a mod in on this contract situation..
Looking at his contract costs on overthecap.com, He only has fully guaranteed salaries for 2024 and 2025. A post June 1 accounting trade would leave Denver on the hook for ~$14M of dead cap space. This assumes that a trade partner absorbs the entire contract and obligations.
I still think it highly unlikely that he gets moved in such a way, but his deal is more favorable to such a trade as compared to what Cleveland gave Watson.
awesome analysis . these nfl contracts are so complicated compared to other leagues
You’re not reading the contract correctly. The $10M/yr was the prorated signing bonus, not the base salary. Wilson is due base salaries of:
’23: $8M (fully guaranteed)
’24: $17M (fully guaranteed)
’25: $37M (fully guaranteed on 5th day of ’24 league year)
’26: $40M ($4M guaranteed for injury only)
’27: $44M
’28: $50M
yes that’s what Broncos would pay.
they’d trade his bonus money.
you can’t trade guaranteed contracts in the NFL.
so I do think new team would only pay the 10 mil per season .
Need some clarity from a mod or something
Winning one game could be the difference in drafting 12 or 20 (or somewhere in that range). Can’t recall that big of a spread with the same record. Under .500 nonetheless.
If Bears get the no 1 pick, they have to trade it. No Dl or DE is worth it. This team needs talent just about everywhere and trading down to some team who will overpay for Young just makes sense.
The Bears have had an allergic reaction to common sense for as long as I can remember.
It’s a darn shame they wasted their high second on Chase Claypool, horrendous trade. They need as many picks as possible, there’s maybe 4-5 players starting currently that should be starting.