Christmas Day’s Broncos-Rams matchup will pit two of the league’s most disappointing teams against one another, and the Seahawks and Lions will have a vested interest in this contest. The loser of this game will give one of the latter teams — via the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trades — a better chance of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft.
At 1-12-1, the Texans are cruising home. The Bears are on their heels, potentially set to become the team that selects the 2023 draft’s first non-quarterback. But eight four- or five-win teams reside behind these two, providing some intrigue for fanbases whose squads are not moving toward the playoffs.
The NFC South’s plunge toward becoming perhaps the worst division in NFL history carries draft stakes as well. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers each have five wins, and Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia (via the Saints’ pre-draft trade this year) would see those picks land in the top 10 as of now. The division-leading Buccaneers would see their draft slot check in no higher than 19th. Should one of Tampa Bay’s challengers vault the current first-place team in the standings, the Bucs would see their 2023 first-round slot rise considerably.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 16:
- Houston Texans: 1-12-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-11
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-10
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-9-1
- Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
- Carolina Panthers: 5-9
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8
- Green Bay Packers: 6-8
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
- New England Patriots: 7-7
- New York Jets: 7-7
- Detroit Lions: 7-7
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8
- Tennessee Titans: 7-7
- Washington Commanders: 7-6-1
- Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
- New York Giants: 8-5-1
- Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
- Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
- Cincinnati Bengals: 10-4
- Kansas City Chiefs: 11-3
- Minnesota Vikings: 11-3
- Buffalo Bills: 11-3
- Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice.
The lions are by far the most interesting team at the top of the draft. If Goff does well and they make the playoffs but he struggles in a playoff game and they have a top 3 pick do they go QB, Anderson or Carter, trade down?
Team isn’t bad enough anymore to get top 5 picks on a regular basis.
The only QB in this class I think is a lock to be good is Bryce Young but even he has concerns (durability, size).
Its no anomaly that the Lions are finally competitive after picking o-line and d-line the last couple of years with top picks. When they last competed for the NFC north, they had Suh. They need to stick with that idea and stack their lines this draft. If Goff cant win with the trenches secured then go for a qb in 2024.
Too many teams get a qb and have no team for them to play around and few rookies can handle the load.
What would they add to their lines with a top five pick and a top 20 pick? They need so much help in the back of the defense.
I kind of think they need to take one regardless.
I think its also they are already playing the lying game about the draft.
But yes, very interesting.
Agreed, ride the wave. Get defensive help in first round. They’ll be QB’s every year
It kind of sucks the QB choices this draft are not as good as next year. There will be picks that exceed expectations but which ones? That is hard to tell.
That being said I would like Seattle to trade down and get a first next year. Then if they can trade up with their two picks maybe the one from 2024. There could be an edge rusher we could take I know but getting the QB right is the most important.
Apparently the Dolphins had a choice of punishments. They could forfeit a first round pick or film another Pet Detective movie. It was an easy decision to make.
I actually laughed out loud