The consensus top running back in the 2023 draft class has, to no surprise, entered the pool of April’s NFL-eligible prospects. Texas’ Bijan Robinson announced (on Twitter) that he is forgoing his final year of NCAA eligibility and turning pro. 
Robinson was an immediate contributor for the Longhorns in his freshman campaign, rushing for 703 yards and four touchdowns. He also displayed a dual-threat ability by adding 196 yards and a pair of scores through the air. That production continued the following year, when the 6-0, 215-pounder topped 1,000 rushing yards and recorded double-digit touchdowns for the first time.
This season, Robinson went a step further with a Big 12-leading 1,580 yards on the ground, coupled with 314 receiving yards. His 20 total touchdowns led the conference, and made him an easy selection as a consensus All-American and this year’s winner of the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back. Robinson also finished top-10 in Heisman voting, and his 3,410 career rushing yards rank fourth in school history.
Robinson represents the latest fodder for the debate on how highly running backs should be valued in the draft. In a mock released earlier this month, ESPN’s Todd McShay has the Eagles selecting him fifth overall – by far the highest a tailback would be taken since Saquon Barkley went second to the Giants in 2018. Five running backs have heard their names called on Day 1 since then (Sony Michel, Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Najee Harris and Travis Etienne), although there were no first-rounders at the position last year.
The fact that Philadelphia is slated to have multiple first-round picks could play a significant role in their choice to draft a Miles Sanders replacement, should they go down that hypothetical path. A number of other teams will be highly interested in adding Robinson, of course, so his draft stock in the coming months will be worth monitoring closely.
It would be more interesting to see a list of of second and third round running backs in that same period. I’m not sure the results are that much better when spending first rounders. The issue with RB is that there’s a one in four chance every year that your bell cow goes lame and only recovers after a year out. And when this happen he may never run like he did before. Happily Saquon Barkley is turning out to be the exception, post-injury. Barkley’s fifth year option was turned down as a consequence of injury.
When spending that kind of draft capital (first round, top of second) it makes sense to prioritise durability (by player and by position), as so many top players with injury history or injury concerns either don’t play or play very little.
Basically don’t draft RB’s in the first round is one of the better NFL draft axioms for a passing league.
Everything you said and more. Part of it is situation. How much of a running back’s performance can be chalked up to their own talent and skill, as opposed to their opportunity, protection, and scheme is much more evenly split than any other skill position. Shanahans have been making late round and undrafted backs look like starters for decades because of their scheme.
Part of it is the value in terms of money and scarcity. Not only are starter caliber running backs found all over the draft, but starter caliber running backs are available in free agency every year for not much more than a first round pick’s salary. So the pick isn’t as strong a value. A good receiver, pass rusher, or offensive lineman not only might be a much better discount on a rookie deal, but it can be the only way to get one of the really good ones. How many really good receivers or tackles even make it to free agency?
Even for teams that can afford a “luxury pick,” wouldn’t the Chiefs have been better off aiming for something more valuable when they took CEH? And that was at the end of the round.
Don’t get me wrong, Robinson looks amazing, but in terms of resource allocation and team building, I don’t think it’s basically ever wise to take a running back in the first.
Barkley is playing on his 5 th year option , the giants turned down Daniel Jones 5th yr option.
Which has him fifth in cap hit and seventh in cash for this year among running backs. He had to be healthy and really, really good this year to be worth the option on his rookie deal, which speaks to the lack of upside in drafting a running back in the first round.
Thanks for the clarification. I remember there was a lot of conversation about whether to pick up Barkley’s fifth year option. What surprised the world was there was no attempt to extend Barkley at a reasonable rate. Barkley was in a bit of a pinch – asking for an early extension with a big guarantee became basically impossible due to injury.
I hope Barkley continues to play well both before and after a well-earned extension. Except in Redskins games.