Housing the defending Super Bowl champions and the conference’s runner-up, this year’s NFC West was set to feature another chapter in the reinvigorated Rams-49ers rivalry. But both would-be contenders have offered inconsistency that has further muddled the NFC.
As the Sean McVay–Kyle Shanahan series has seen injuries and roster deficiencies cloud its sixth season, the Seahawks have gone from a team projected to be close to a top-five 2023 draft choice to one with legitimate aspirations at a home playoff game. With the Cardinals also within two games of first place — ahead of a key Hawks-Cards Week 9 tilt — this division still features many questions at the midseason point.
Winners of this division three times during McVay’s first five seasons, the Rams have been unable to generate much offense involving anyone beyond Cooper Kupp. After Andrew Whitworth retired, Los Angeles re-signed his backup — Joe Noteboom — to a three-year, $40MM deal and brought back center Brian Allen. Both Noteboom (out for the season) and Allen (five missed games) have seen injuries define their 2022 slates. The team let three-year guard starter Austin Corbett walk in free agency (Panthers), and the Rams’ guard spots have endured a litany of setbacks. Both Rams starting guards (David Edwards, Coleman Shelton) remain on IR. These issues have limited the Rams considerably. No McVay-led Rams offense has ranked outside the top 11; Los Angeles enters Week 9 with the league’s 30th-ranked offense.
While no problems have surfaced after Kupp’s extension agreement, Stafford, 34, has not started well since signing a four-year, $160MM deal. The 14th-year veteran battled an elbow issue throughout the offseason and is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt — down from 8.1 in 2021 — and enters Week 9 with seven touchdown passes and eight interceptions. Allen Robinson posting 22 catches for 254 yards in seven games has also been an issue, with the Rams having signed him to a three-year, $46.5MM deal that included $30MM guaranteed. Football Outsiders gives the Rams just a 21.6% playoff shot. No defending champion has missed out since the 2016 Broncos.
San Francisco making the call to bring back Jimmy Garoppolo became vital after Trey Lance‘s Week 2 injury. Garoppolo inconsistency remains, but that should not surprise. The 49ers traded two future first-rounders for Lance because of their incumbent starter’s low ceiling. Of course, the 49ers are 2-for-2 in NFC title game berths with Garoppolo at the controls. But this team has battled major injury problems as well, seeing key contributors on each of their three defensive levels miss time or land on IR. That said, the 49ers still rank first defensively. Following an October swoon, the unit should be expected to stabilize once some of its pieces return.
The 49ers outflanking the Rams in the Christian McCaffrey sweepstakes made a major difference in the teams’ Week 8 rematch, and although McCaffrey’s injury history figures to inject nervousness into the equation for 49er fans the rest of the way, the prospect of CMC, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle teaming up probably gives San Francisco (67.3% playoff odds, per Football Outsiders) the highest ceiling in this division. But Seattle (71.9%) remains an obvious threat.
Moving on from two of the best players in team history — Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner — the Seahawks entered the season with long odds to win the division. They hold a one-game lead on the 49ers, thanks largely to the stunning re-emergence of Geno Smith. Off the starter radar since the I.K. Enemkpali punching incident back in 2015, Smith made one start between the 2015 and 2020 seasons. The Seahawks were able to re-sign him to a one-year, $3.5MM deal on April 14, indicating the tepid interest leaguewide. After beating out Drew Lock, Smith (13 TD passes, three INTs, NFL-best 72.7% completion rate — on 7.7 yards a pop) ranks fourth in QBR. While Smith’s offseason market and NFL past would provide signs this may not last, the Seahawks are reaping the benefits of their extended Smith partnership — one the team is interested in exploring beyond 2022.
Seattle’s rookie class — featuring left tackle Charles Cross (obtained with Denver’s No. 9 overall pick), second-rounder Ken Walker and fifth-round project Tariq Woolen — is also delivering immediate returns, doing so after recent draft-weekend struggles set back some of the late Wilson-era teams. The 49ers routed the Seahawks in Week 2, and Seattle has yet to face Los Angeles. But Pete Carroll‘s team is also showing more on defense compared to another woeful start; Clint Hurtt‘s unit has minimized the Cardinals, Chargers and Giants during a three-game win streak.
Extending their Steve Keim–Kliff Kingsbury–Kyler Murray troika this offseason — with Murray’s deal coming after a bizarre film study-based controversy — the Cardinals rank 30th in scoring. They have seen DeAndre Hopkins make a difference upon returning from his six-game PED ban, and Vance Joseph‘s defense — despite a breakup with Chandler Jones after five years — has fared better since Patrick Mahomes torched that group in Week 1. But injuries and continued offensive inconsistency have hindered Arizona season.
Should the Cards (6.9% postseason odds) not be able to upend the Seahawks on Sunday, their road back to the playoffs will be difficult. A last-place finish would certainly invite big-picture questions about the team’s path, with its power trio all under contract through 2027.
Will the Seahawks hang on? Or will one of the 2021 playoff teams surpass them with a better second half? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in on the state of this division in the comments section.
Niners or Rams. Seahawks are the biggest pretender in years
Rams look trash this year. Niners are the obvious choice at this point. Seattle looks good as a WC.
I think that you have to go with San Fran. I could go on about why (who I am kidding, here), but they’re trending upward with proven players who been there before on that team, and a new addition that should add some production as well. The Rams have less depth (f them picks, right Les?), and their starters have been showing their age or general inconsistency at many positions. There’s nobody to cover for those guys when they’re struggling.
Seattle has played well as a unit, but they have an obvious ceiling talent-wise. Carroll has “his guys” again, hence their record, but he’s going to need to start again with his pick haul from the Wilson trade to rebuild the team long term. The culture resurgence this year is good foundation-wise for the later teams. The Cardinals…well, we know that dysfunction is distraction. They have the opposite issue of Seattle-tons of talent with no culture. Hopkins coming back will make their expensive QB better at first glance, but a moody starter and a frustrated head coach are not enough to compensate for an improved but midlevel defense. Long term, the 9ers and Seahawks are trending upward but the others are moving in the opposite direction. The 9ers have the most talent in combination with that, and more guys who have in their spots longer. I’ll take the 9ers.
Ironically, that Denver team finished 9-7 and could have made the playoffs if one other hadn’t edged that edged them out at the end. I don’t see L.A. getting quite as close.
Yeah, I’m sure the Rams really regret having their champion QB, Jalen Ramsey or having got Von Miller last season. Picks haven’t been the problem. McVay tends to reach for offensive players like Akers or Tutu in the 2nd round. The Niners have shown zero abailty to be a consistent team outside of beating the Rams. They go crazy over beating LA, but then lose games to the Bears and Falcons.
I’d be curious to hear if, why lack of picks haven’t been the problem, the Rams have been terrible all year with many of the same contributors. Maybe depth would help? Depth from, say, developing draft picks?
Miller is in Buffalo by the way, so I’m not sure how he is relevant to the 2022 L.A. Rams, which is the topic of discussion here.
The 2 losses you chose to exploit couldn’t have been any worse choices. Chicago was played in a monsoon. You can’t fault any team for playing in that. You never get the best from anybody. The Atlanta game was played without over half the starters on defense. Denver would have been the best choice. That was a head scratcher to me.
PFR should probably offer carpal tunnel insurance to forum regulars (although I won’t mention specifically who could use it).
The performance of Geno Smith this year has confounded both NFL people and the general public.
So I’m basically being asked which team is least likely to get screwed by game officials? Only Goodell knows the answer to that.
The trifecta of re-uppping the GM, HC, & Murray is looking like great business decisions by the Bidwill’s again!
I give credit to Bidwill for lasting in the desert as long as he has. Thought he would have relocated to Hawaii by now.
Pulling for SF to win the SB. Garoppolo is the MVP. On the victory podium, following the game, Jimmy looks in to the camera and answers that famous question with “I’m going to Disney World”. Immediately after that, Shanahan grabs the mike and announces Trey L will be their starting QB in 23.
Losing to the Bears, Broncos, and Falcons doesn’t make me think there’s much of a difference between last place and first place in this division. If the Niners win two of those three they look like a different team all together. I can blame coaching on those loses as much as Jimmy or injury bug but all three had their turn ruining a game. Beating the Rams is great. Chiefs got them at the right time. But if we don’t win the division you can blame those three games we had no business losing.
I still really don’t see SF as all that great, but I feel they kinda end up winning by default. NFC just sucks.
I would’ve bet on the 49ers to top the NFC West even w/o CMC.
Arizona has to “figure things out”
Rams are feeling the fade of being around 30+
and while the draft hungry Seahawks are worthy of a coach medal, they’re not going to beat the 49ers, Vikings Philly or the Cowboys.
It’s a 3-sheets vote because the 49ers aren’t going to beat the AFC either. Hoot on, and smoke em if you got em.
It all depends on if the Niners can stay healthy for a Super Bowl.