Injuries are hitting the Broncos harder than most teams. Starters continue to be moved to IR, with Garett Bolles‘ leg fracture the latest significant issue to emerge. But this is standard in-season fare. Ditto close losses. The Broncos’ bigger-picture problems are not.
The team’s hire of Nathaniel Hackett and trade for Russell Wilson have not produced offensive success; the Broncos’ defense has been largely responsible for their two wins and the team being in position for two more. Hackett and Wilson’s performances keyed both the upset losses to the Seahawks and Colts. Considering what these two figures mean for the franchise’s future, the early returns warrant scrutiny.
Denver cycled through 11 starting quarterbacks between Peyton Manning‘s retirement and the Wilson trade. First-round picks (Paxton Lynch), second-round picks (Drew Lock), free agent signings (Case Keenum) and trades (Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater) did not produce worthwhile solutions, leading the franchise to pony up for Wilson. The Broncos’ eight-asset trade haul — headlined by 2022 and 2023 first-round picks — for Wilson doubled as one of the most expensive in NFL history, and the team committed to the perennial Pro Bowler via the five-year, $245MM ($124MM fully guaranteed) extension in August.
Through five games, the Broncos rank 31st in points per game and 28th in EPA per drive. While the team has mounted productive drives, it is consistently crashlanding in the red zone. This continued Thursday night, when the Broncos were 0-for-4 on touchdowns after reaching the red area. The only two instances of a team going 0-for-4 on TDs in the red zone this season, as ESPN.com’s Field Yates points out (on Twitter), came Thursday and in the Broncos’ bizarre Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. The Broncos have scored touchdowns at a ghastly 21.4% clip in the red zone. That is in last place by a wide margin; the 49ers rank 31st at 40%.
A star quarterback suddenly losing his form at 33 would be one of the more interesting on-field storylines to develop in recent memory, so it is worth speculating whether these rampant issues are Wilson-based or if they are more closely tied to the shift to a new offense. The nine-time Pro Bowler ranks 22nd in QBR, and the latter of Wilson’s two interceptions Thursday helped the Colts tie the game in the final minute. Wilson has rarely opted to use his legs this season; the likely Hall of Famer has 73 rushing yards through five games. That is in line with the new pace he set in 2021 (43 carries, 183 yards), when he missed three games. The Seahawks, who derived considerable value from Wilson’s rushing ability during his 10-year stay, believed Wilson’s run-game reluctancy would increase as he aged. Wilson sits fourth in QB history (behind Michael Vick, Cam Newton and Randall Cunningham) with 4,762 rushing yards.
Wilson’s accomplishments and success leading diminishing Seahawks rosters, at least compared to the franchise’s dominant mid-2010s squads, to the playoffs from 2018-20 point to Hackett being the bigger variable here. The 11th-year passer’s acclimation period to this offense — one that entered Thursday without starting running back Javonte Williams and has played without No. 3 wideout Tim Patrick all season — has been shaky at best. The Broncos’ final offensive play — a fourth-and-1 shotgun set in which Wilson missed an open K.J. Hamler, leading to extensive Hamler post-play frustration — effectively epitomizing the Hackett-Wilson partnership’s first month. Wilson is 2-for-18 on end zone passes this season, per ESPN Stats and Info.
This season has brought Hackett’s first play-calling role since he was fired from his Jaguars OC post during the 2018 season. The dual role of play-caller and game manager proved daunting for Hackett, whose 64-yard field goal attempt decision did well to foreshadow the Broncos’ eventful first month, and a game management assistant (the unretired Jerry Rosburg) is now in place. Situational struggles, as the brutal red zone numbers illustrate, have plagued Hackett since Rosburg’s arrival as well. The last of those produced a notable reaction from ex-Wilson teammate-turned-Amazon analyst Richard Sherman. Hackett rebuilt his career in Green Bay, having a hand in Aaron Rodgers‘ back-to-back MVP awards — and receiving steady endorsements from the future Hall of Famer — and interviewed for four HC jobs this offseason. But his Denver tenure is skidding off track early.
The Broncos rebounded from a 2-3 start in Manning’s first season, shifting quickly to some of Manning’s former Colts concepts to close out that 2012 campaign — a 13-3 season. But that team lost to three division champions, whereas none of this Broncos iteration’s blemishes have come against over-.500 competition. With the Broncos’ new ownership group not having signed off on Hackett, the prospect of a one-and-done HC tenure may be greater.
While these decisions are rare, five coaches (Urban Meyer, Freddie Kitchens, Steve Wilks, Chip Kelly and Jim Tomsula) have been fired during or after their first season. Meyer, Wilks, Kelly and Tomsula all lost 11-plus games; Kitchens’ firing came more as a result of dysfunction. Following Thursday’s result, BetOnline.ag moved Hackett to the top of its first-coach-fired prop odds. With the Broncos tied to Wilson through at least 2025 (due to guarantees), Hackett’s job security will shift to the forefront if his offense continues to produce at this level.
Can the Broncos re-emerge as a more stable operation after their mini-bye? Or have Hackett’s early-season missteps become too big of a concern? How much of the Denver offense’s issues are Wilson-driven compared to the system in which he now finds himself? What does this all mean for the franchise’s long-term outlook? Weigh in on the Broncos’ strange start in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate installment.
The broncos are in trouble. They play in a division where every other team got better this year (except maybe the chiefs but they were already elite). Signing Wilson to that extension will hamper this franchise while he’s on the books.
22nd in qbr tells you who should get the blame
I don’t think Wilson is the same guy he was for most of his time in Seattle, anymore, but a lot of the blame goes to Hackett IMO. He’s battling it out with Matt Rhule for worst HC in the league.
While I agree Hackett is in way over his head you still can’t make an excuse for Wilson’s poor play. He’s missing wide open targets every single game. Bad play calling or not that’s on the guy throwing the ball
I have watched Wilson play twice this year. He is responsible for his reads and throws. Hackett didn’t make him throw the 2 int in the red zone. The OC didn’t make him throw the ball down the field not having a clue to who it was going to.
This is pretty much what Wilson looked like after the awful game he had in Arizona a couple years ago. Russ was well on his way to the MVP and for some reason Wilson fell apart that game. He played poorly the rest of the year. Last year he was doing OK until the injury. He played bad after the injury and got a little better as the season went along.
Denver fans will if they don’t hero worship him like many did in Seattle find he is a phony. He says the right things he is never seen unless a good picture of his family or he is visiting kids in a hospital.
His new saying let’s go is part of that. He started the go hawks after an interview the media cought on and commented on it so he kept saying it. He had to come up with a new saying and let’s ride won out. There is a video of him practicing different ones. Lastly he has picked up an accent. Might have been a one time deal but saw an interview with his accent. Kind of a cowboy type accent. Pete saw something in him he didn’t like about his game plus the struggle with Russ and him wanting to be involved in every move. Denver better reel him in or give him an assistant GM title.
Thanks a lot for the 2 1s and 2s. Seattle fans will be rooting for you to lose like we did in the Mr Ed days you know when we were in the same Div. Funny you took Seattle’s cast off to replace Mr Ed.
The NFL likes to push players of color in the QB spot with commercials and extra media. Reminds me of Cam Newton. He was nothing but an average NFL QB that had problems throwing spirals. Russ made plays with his legs by getting out of the pocket. Now we’re seeing what his real skill level is without his legs. Great sports players adjust as they get older.
That weird I thought in his prime he almost won a SB and got the MVP that same season. But I get that only happened because he was black. Not because he was a star at one point.
Rex Grossmann almost won a superbowl too. But he wasn’t an arrogant entitled spoiled brat like Cam is. Cam was always overrated.
That INT in the end zone against the Colts was all Wilson. He waited too long and then threw it behind the receiver. Terrible play.
As most would point out (especially Richard Sherman), when your QB is having trouble, a smart coach would have called a running play in that situation.
Yeah, in the offseason, I wondered what the hell Schneider and Carroll were doing.
Turns out there’s a reason why I’m sitting of my couch drinking beer and they’re not.
The Broncos are done. Wilson has turned the locker room against him with his demands for special treatment.
Do you pick up towels in the locker room?
Wilson turned the team against him in Seattle. He was called not white enough. His insistence on being involved in so many aspects that had none or little to do with his job. He will have and has had a say in Denver. He is so full of himself he feels he deserves it. The guy is on his way down fast.
The Broncos have lost a lot key impact performers on the defensive side of the ball from Harris, Miller.
It seems apparent that everyone in the Seattle locker room during the Legion of Boom years found him to be a lame guy, and I could see the clash of egos from both sides of the ball being the downfall of an organization that has since benefitted with a change in personnel.
If it’s anyone I have faith in it’s the Indianapolis Colts. If we’ve learned anything from their past they have always known how to get their head out of the gutter, and start winning games down the wire. Especially with an experienced QB core in Ryan and Foles at the helm.
*Harris and Miller leave the Broncos organization leaving a lack of quality veteran leadership in the Broncos roster.
Whats worse than a dumpster fire?
Cause this team is straight trash. AND they dont even have much money or draft picks to fix this issue.
Theyre currently projected 11th in cap with about 23 mill in 2023.
I get injuries but when you had Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler plus Williams Gordon you shouldn’t be running too many multiple TE sets.
Offense needs to run 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1RB majority of the time.
They also need to start moving Wilson outside the pocket more.
Overrated QB & a deer in headlights HC spells disaster in Mile High
Credit due to Seattle coaching staff and FO for seeing a decline in Wilson and convincing owner it was time to move on.
Broncos Country, Let’s Ride!
So…he got an NFL HC job because he coached one guy who was already an MVP player…?
K.
Don’t forget that his dad was really good friends with the guys who were good friends with other guys who knew some important guys, and ya. That matters.
Square peg, round hole. This is exactly the same thing that would happen with Lamar Jackson if he left Baltimore and the new team didn’t run the same offense that Baltimore does.
Wilson has been a very good QB for most of his career up until this point and the only change is the team and offense they run. I blame the coaching staff, not Wilson.
22nd in qbr is rating the qb not the coach. Wilson can’t even hit simple dump offs to the rb at this point it’s sad
Things can look pretty terrible when guys aren’t all on the same page. It’s the system.
How would you know? You don’t watch the NFL.
No Politics (aka Brownsbacker) is a Brown fan, so you’re correct, he doesn’t watch the NFL.
No politics is borderline illiterate, what did you expect?
No it isn’t. Why is it so hard for you to understand the NFL?
I posted a book above but Wilson started his decline at the game in Arizona. He was in a race to MVP against himself. He threw how many picks? His play did get better but not back to what it was. Then after the injury got worse. He threw an int on the 3 yard line just hucking the ball with no idea who was there. Then one in the end zone to a guy who was covered. He also didn’t lead him enough. That could be not knowing the receivers he didn’t do that a ton in Seattle.
You are absolutely wrong about Lamar being in the same boat if he left the Ravens. If he couldn’t read the play right, he can just run, and he will. A lot. You don’t need to run a certain offense to throw the ball to an open receiver.
Lamar is one of the worst in the game of football in throwing a ball on target. He is getting bailed out by his receivers.
Lamar can run for now, but you just wait a couple of more seasons with 100+ carries and watch him slow down. When he loses that half step, he’s done, because he doesn’t have the arm talent.
When he loses a half of step, can’t he still be getting bailed out by his receivers? You’ve never even seen Jackson throw one pass since you claimed to have not watched an NFL game for 5 years
Poor decisions, overrated players, the Let’s ride thing is a joke, 4 place.
They’re toast. Dug a hole and they are too flawed to dig out of it.
So it took the new owner all of 4 games to find himself a fall guy? If only Wal-mart could be run that efficiently.
“Get yourself a fall guy” -Cris Carter
Warren Sapp with the assist.
Hackett just another guy who for some reason was a must have. Let’s see. His dad was a horrible play caller. Nathaniel himself got fired from the Jags?? and who couldn’t coach a talent like Crybaby Rodgers. Really come on the guy is so overmatched as a head coach it isn’t funny? The GM who is also still there should shown the door after that hire, as he obviously also has no clue.
You said being fired by the Jags as a bad thing.
Bad coaching isn’t the only thing hurting Denver. The Charger fans in Cali watching last week’s Broncos game couldn’t help but smile when Melvin Gordon fumbled straight to a Raiders DB who ran it back the other way for a TD.
COLORADO! state of the broncos.
Wilson has lost two steps and his sandlot game is suffering as a result. Teams don’t trade viable QBs in a league without enough viable QBs, unless they have good reason….
Seattle had a good reason. Wilson has a big contract, they are completely rebuilding their team, they want to tank for draft picks, so why pay Wilson when they can trade him for draft capital?
None of my friends wanted to hear it, but I knew as a jets fan that Geno could play. He always moved the ball. His problem was between the ears. I think now, after years of film and clipboards and headsets … he’s putting it all together. Could be wrong. But his success traces back to late last year. Don’t think it’s a fluke. Seattle’s brass is looking awfully smart at this moment. This very site reported that some in the organization saw Wilson as declining. So far that’s looking 100% accurate. This isn’t a new or exciting take. It’s been all over the media. It’s a sad way to end the prime of a now borderline HOF QB. This may set Denver back years. I feel the most bad for Surtain who looks like maybe the best CB in football and now it looks like his whole rookie contract will be on losing teams and won’t be taken advantage of. Most of the time the star QB wins the dispute with the franchise and/or coach. Very likely, not this time.
I haven’t read any comments, I didn’t even read the article. Disclaimer aside, Wilson looks old and slow. His head coach is trash.
Deerhunter, I have muted you because you are an absolute moron with severe mental problems. You have nothing intelligent to say about anything, and it is a waste of my time to read and/or reply to any nonsense you post. Please devote all of your brain power to breathing before you forget again, and leave the higher level thinking to people that are actually capable of it.
No politics is Brownsbacker
It’s almost like not having a top scoring defense and Marshawn Lynch for years is exposing Wilson.
Yeah, it is almost like if you have a terrible defense, an idiotic head coach/OC, and don’t have at least a competent running game that it doesn’t matter how good your QB is or something.
I don’t begrudge anyone trying to get as much $$ as possible, but it is hard to build a consistent winner when the QB soaks up cap money that otherwise would got to other skilled players. Russ probably is on the downside of his career, but he’s not likely to take less money to let his team sign complementary pieces. Whatever you think about TB12, he did that a lot longer than he needed to.
Wilson is trying to make as much money as he can. He is trying to be in an ownership group to own a franchise. With His wife’s help he can probably do that. If he can turn things around he might get another contract not close to as big but it is all about the cash for him.