Kyler Murray landed a contract that, in terms of average annual value, eclipses Deshaun Watson‘s. At five years and $230.5MM, it is easy to see how Murray’s camp used Watson’s deal to benefit the former No. 1 overall pick. But Murray’s contract, lacking the unique circumstances that drove the Browns into historic financial territory for Watson, is not fully guaranteed.
While over half of Murray’s contract is not guaranteed at signing, the $103.3MM in full guarantees rank second in the NFL to Watson’s $230MM. Lamar Jackson may not be willing to make a Murray-like compromise on guarantees. The Ravens quarterback is believed to want a fully guaranteed extension worth more than what the Browns are paying Watson, Jason Cole of Outkick.com notes.
Extension-eligible since January 2021, Jackson has certainly not made an extension a priority on the level Murray did. The Cardinals quarterback aimed at a pre-Year 4 deal. Jackson is going into his fifth season, and the Ravens’ top three decision-makers — Steve Bisciotti, John Harbaugh and GM Eric DeCosta — have said publicly the former MVP was not actively pursuing an offseason extension. Momentum toward an extension has appeared to pick up since Jackson showed for minicamp, however. If Jackson is pursuing a Watson-structured deal, he likely will begin this season playing on his fifth-year option ($23MM).
[RELATED: How Will Ravens’ Jackson Negotiations End?]
Watson was able to secure his historically player-friendly structure due to the four-team bidding war — trimmed to four by Texans GM Nick Caserio — commencing in March. The Browns being on the verge of losing the battle prompted them to offer the monster contract. With the Ravens having exclusive negotiating rights with Jackson potentially until 2025 — via the two-franchise tag arrangement, a Kirk Cousins-esque scenario Bisciotti referenced earlier this year — he would not be in the same kind of position to secure such a deal. Even if Jackson has shown more than Watson, he does not have that kind of leverage.
It would cost the Ravens close to $40MM to tag Jackson next year. Although Cousins, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan had $40MM-plus cap numbers entering March, their respective teams adjusted those figures — the Falcons by trading their QB — to avoid those cap-clogging totals. No player enters this season with a cap number higher than $39MM. Only four players have $30MM-plus cap hits. If Jackson plays a second season on the tag, his cap figure would come in around $48MM, Cole adds. While that would be a record, the salary cap’s rise will lead to $40MM-plus figures becoming more common in the near future. Watson’s fully guaranteed contract will bring cap numbers north of $54MM from 2023-26.
Still, the Ravens seeing Jackson’s cap hold spike from $23MM to around $40MM will make for more challenging roster building come 2023. That represents some leverage for the three-time Pro Bowler. Jackson’s star power notwithstanding, it is difficult to foresee Baltimore agreeing to such a deal. Jackson’s rushing volume (615 carries through four seasons — 148 more than any other QB through four years) potentially shortening his career is a component that is surely factoring into these negotiations on the Ravens’ side. He has also gone from first in QBR (2019) to seventh to 17th over the past three seasons. An uncertain wide receiver situation this year may challenge Jackson more — as both a passer and a runner, with the Ravens not exactly planning to deviate from their ground-oriented attack.
Jackson, 25, continues to represent himself, with the NFLPA providing counsel. He is not planning to negotiate with the Ravens during the season. Finality, for 2022 at least, is approaching in this situation.
He chose to bypass talks this offseason, let him play play out the season. Another injury marred, average stat season will dispute his numbers.
Another? It’s the first time in four years he got hurt.
Running QB’s have short lives, like RB’s.
Certainly not all of them. Several running QBs have grown as passers and relied on their legs less over time, and held on to be effective deep into their careers. Steve McNair Won MVP at 30. Randall Cunningham was an all-pro at 35. Russell Wilson cost a boatload at 33. Jackson has run more often than those guys did, but so has Josh Allen.
RG3 was done before his 1st contract as well. Cam and CK also had terrible endings to their careers.
Your points are valid, but I don’t think Lamar is a top 5 QB.
There’s also McNabb. I see the increased risk, of course, but assuming he’ll have a short career is silly. He’s already shown growth as a passer.
As for being top five, I don’t think so either, but next man up gets the big contract.
I wish for 1% of that contract! I get the owners are banking and time for the players as well. But it seems marketing is as much of a factor as on field performance these days.
You are missing the lead. THEY ALL LEARNED TO BECOME POCKET PASSERS AND STOPPED RUNNING.
There are more examples of guys who did not learn this and were gone as soon as their legs were done.
Are there more examples? Of guys who were nearly as good?
As good as what? What has Jackson won?
Just off the top of my head, guys who “revolutionized” the game and were winners or set the league on fire:
Vince Young
RGII
Colin Kaepernick (actually got to a super bowl, something Lamar hasn’t done)
Cam Newton (also got to a superbowl.)
Lamar Jackson has an MVP and led his team to the playoffs. Comparing him to Vince Young is ridiculous.
Vince Young won OROY, was a 2x Probowler, and took the Titans to the playoffs. Comparing him to Lamar is apt.
Young had more interceptions than TDS for his career. It took until his fifth season before he threw as many TDs as Jackson did in 2018 alone. Both his pro bowls were as replacement for injured players, and in the latter case, two other replacements said no.
So? He has twice as many wins as losses for his career, won those awards, and took his team to the playoffs. As many defenders of Lamar say, it doesn’t matter how he plays, he wins. Right? Something else he has in common with Lamar, an extremely low Wonderlic score.
Ok, now you’re not even trying to troll well. Take care.
The truth is not trolling. Sorry you can’t deal with it. It will be much better for you if you can accept reality rather than trying to fight against it. Lamar is a run first, poor passing QB that makes poor decisions and has fumbling issues.
Yes and it happening again would be “another” such season.
1 plus 2 equals another. Anytime it is more than one it is another. Hope that clears it up for you.
Not being mean just a smart a**.
He’s been honest since the MVP season. He wants a big contract but wants to earn it by doing what Mahomes did. He said it then. Has not changed it.
It’s the downside of not having an agent is people leak a bunch of garbage because they honestly don’t have anyone leaking things to them. It might infuriate some but I honestly love that he has kept it close to the vest this whole time.
The linked article itself is just a bunch of guesstimation…
“According to a source familiar with both Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens’ position on the negotiations, Jackson is asking for a contract that is both fully guaranteed and worth more than the $230 million that Cleveland gave to quarterback Deshaun Watson on a five-year deal this offseason.
“Why wouldn’t he (ask for more than Watson)?” the source asked, rhetorically.”
He can ask for anything he wants. What he deserves is to be kicked to the curb and let the FA market figure out what his value is and then watch him fail on another team.
Enjoy your sexual predator.
If by that you think I am a Cleveland Browns fan, you’re a moron. I like BROWNIES, you know the cake-like stuff.
How much must the rest of the NFL hate Cleveland for absolutely nuking the QB contract market? You can think Jackson’s an injury risk or prefer a QB with more pure passing acumen, but he’s a former MVP who’s still only 25, didn’t sit out all of last season, and isn’t facing a suspension for having more sexual misconduct accusations than he has fingers and toes.
Has there ever been a time when some team hasn’t been accused of nuking the QB contract market? I remember the uproar created when the Jets signed Namath to the then insane amount of $400,000.
There wasn’t a salary cap then. Cleveland more than doubled the record for guaranteed money, and on top of everything I mentioned, he also has a significant injury history.
It is going to spill into all positions. Who doesn’t think the Prima Donna WRs won’t ask for it soon. Then the just Donnas CB will be it too. Will get interesting owners will have to shut it down before it gets too far. If players want full guaranteed contracts like MLB they need to get in negotiations.
Or just end the leagues. All the fans need to walk away. Players acting like they are superior because they destroy their brains playing a game. They don’t deserve the money they get. Most of them can’t hold onto it anyway because they never actually earned their free college education.
Jackson is an idiot, if he gets hurt he is costing himself 100’s of millions of dollars. This is what happens when you family member is acting as your agent.
I don’t know if I’d go so far as to say hundreds of millions of dollars, but I understand your point. The flip side is if he leads his team to a SB, he stands to make quite a bit more. It’s a gamble -and it’s bold- but I wouldn’t call him an “idiot” for doing it.
The Ravens would be insane to give him that deal. They need to part ways.
I sure don’t want my team in this situation! So by default, I agree.
Looks like a short game offense strategy for the Ravens this year? IE. no replacement for Hollywood. I guess the Ravens feel that’s the path that gets them to the Super Bowl? Why? If Lamar gets hurt, Huntley can manage it. Heck his QBR (over 5 games) last year was practically identical to Lamar’s. So ownership has confidence in him to succeed but do not have confidence in him to succeed with an offense custom made for Lamar’s all world skill set. If I’m Lamar, I’m out after this year.
Good. Signing Lamar to a long term, huge contract would be a sinking ship albatross for the Ravens. He’s not worth that, not that any player is worth what they are getting these days.
This “all world” skill set is running with the football and not throwing it. Time for the Ravens to get away from this losing football style and get themselves a real passer and actually win games that matter.
@DopeBrowniesBruh; IMHO, he can chunk it down field as well as run with it. Skill set looks all world to me. Huntley and just about everyone else in the league, no. Again, looks like Ravens are going small ball for continuity purposes so to give the team a shot at winning if Lamar goes down.
Right. They are going short passes inside the hash because Lamar can’t go deep outside of them.
Except for for the 2 years of arb they have.
If you’re just talking having speed at WR, Duvernay is about as fast, but they’re expecting Bateman to step up in year 2 to take the majority of Brown’s targets. He may not be as fast, but his route running is on par, if not better, and he has better hands than Hollywood.
@OhthePossibilities; I like Duvernay as well as Protege. I hope my analysis is off here. Loved to see a healthy balance of short game and down the field action. That said, I thought the draft was revealing. 2 tight ends chosen and they move Hollywood. Hmm
I think, with the trade agreed to well before draft night, they were looking at someone who got taken before their 1st pick and then nothing really lined up after that… but Likely may be able to line up wide at times as well.
Those guys are banged up, one of them pretty seriously.
@OtheP; interesting take on how the draft played out. I didn’t think of that. And, Likely lining up wide sounds intriguing.
Anybody who fully guarantees the contract of a running QB is an idiot. Last year should have sent the Ravens a strong message.