Shanahan: ‘Not A Guarantee’ 49ers Trade Jimmy Garoppolo

Baker Mayfield‘s saga has generated considerable buzz, dwarfing Jimmy Garoppolo‘s time on the trade block for publicity. But the longtime 49ers starter is in the same boat, albeit with an unproven quarterback expected to replace him.

After entering the offseason with the plan of trading Garoppolo, the 49ers remain hopeful they can do so. But that is no longer a lock. After John Lynch alluded to the possibility Garoppolo plays out his contract with the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan did the same Tuesday.

I expect at sometime he’ll be traded, but it’s not a guarantee,” Shanahan said, via the San Jose Mercury News’ Cam Inman (on Twitter). “It went on hold when [surgery] happened.”

The 30-year-old quarterback underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder this offseason, putting him in a similar unavailability boat as Mayfield, who had surgery on his nonthrowing shoulder. Mayfield is expected to be ready by training camp. Garoppolo is expected to be ready for Week 1, but the surgery — which did not occur until March — changed the 49ers’ game plan here. They had entered trade talks previously, but Garoppolo’s operation scuttled those. San Francisco’s asking price — once believed to be a Day 2 pick — has almost certainly plummeted, with quarterback-needy teams moving to other options.

Lynch has said he believes Trey Lance is ready to take over, though CEO Jed York has also offered that the 49ers’ two quarterbacks can coexist for a second season. It would still surprise if Garoppolo was back on the 49ers next season. His $26.95MM cap number is holding up team business, which includes extensions for Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel. Frequent scrutiny and injuries aside, Garoppolo has quarterbacked the 49ers to two NFC championship games. He could represent the best option to keep San Francisco a contender, depending on Lance’s Year 2 readiness.

That said, Lance coming from a Division I-FCS program that did not have a season in 2020 — due to the pandemic — and having one year of college starter experience opens the door for a longer NFL onramp. The North Dakota State prospect did not seriously threaten Garoppolo’s QB1 status as a rookie and could find himself in a position battle again come camp, if Garoppolo is indeed still a 49er.

Garoppolo’s camp would likely not be thrilled by the veteran being a very expensive Lance insurance policy, especially considering other teams could still upgrade via the ninth-year veteran. But the 49ers, like the Browns, appear to be threatening to take push complex QB situation into training camp — potentially in hopes of an injury or underperformance entices a team to make a viable trade offer.

The Panthers and Seahawks have been more closely connected to Mayfield, with Carolina entering trade talks for the disgruntled Cleveland QB during the draft. But a Garoppolo-to-Carolina scenario should not be ruled out. It is more difficult to see the 49ers trading Garoppolo to a division rival, though precedents exist — most notably in 2010’s Donovan McNabb Philadelphia-to-Washington swap. The Texans emerged on the radar here just before the draft, which featured no Houston QB picks. Nick Caserio was in New England throughout Garoppolo’s time there, but acquiring the contract-year QB now would impede Davis Mills‘ development.

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