As players widely linked to first-round destinations fell into the third, the long run of skepticism about this year’s quarterback class manifested itself. While this was the lowest-rated quarterback crop since at least the 2013 class, a few of these passers have paths to early playing time.
Russell Wilson‘s rapid rise notwithstanding, third-round QBs do not have an extensive track record for extended QB1 run as rookies. Only six non-Wilson Round 3 QBs (Joe Ferguson, Mike Glennon, Chris Chandler, Davis Mills, John Hadl and Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton) made at least 10 starts as rookies. (Wilson is the only third-round QB to start a full season.) The bar is low for the likes of Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Matt Corral, but they each landed in interesting situations.
Conversations around starter promotions for this year’s class must first include Kenny Pickett, who ended up going 54 spots before the next quarterback came off the board. The Pittsburgh alum, who will turn 24 next month, was a four-year starter at the ACC school. Pickett’s NFL entrance looks similar to new teammate Mitchell Trubisky‘s. The No. 2 overall choice in 2017, Trubisky unseated Glennon after the latter signed with the Bears that offseason. A value gap between being picked second and 20th certainly exists, but the Steelers clearly have Pickett penciled in as their long-term preference.
Four of the five QBs taken in last year’s first round were full-time starters by September, while three of the four 2020 first-rounders moved to the top depth chart position by October. The Steelers bumped 2004 No. 11 overall pick Ben Roethlisberger into their lineup in Week 3 of his rookie year, following a Tommy Maddox injury. How eager will they be to put Pickett out there? Trubisky has 50 career starts to his credit, and the oft-maligned Bears draftee rebuilt his value in Buffalo — to some degree — to create a bit of a market in March. A Trubisky-Mason Rudolph depth chart adds some fuel to a scenario in which Pickett waits a bit before taking the reins.
The second quarterback chosen this year, Ridder joins a Falcons team amid a full-scale rebuild. This is a similar situation to the one Mills walked into in Houston. Ridder started four seasons at Cincinnati, topping it off by helping the Bearcats become the first Group of Five team invited to the College Football Playoff. Marcus Mariota resides as Atlanta’s stopgap starter, and while Ridder’s No. 74 overall draft slot does not mandate a lengthy look as the team’s long-term arm, Mariota has not made it past October as a starter since 2018.
The former Arthur Smith Titans pupil would stand to buy Ridder time in a low-expectations season post-Matt Ryan, but Ridder has a clear path to an extended look — if he proves worthy in the coming months.
Willis’ tumble doubled as one of the modern draft’s most notable freefalls. Linked to teams in the top half of the first round, the Liberty prospect fell to No. 86, when the Titans traded up for him. Of the top QBs taken this year, Willis seemingly has the best chance for a full-on redshirt. Ryan Tannehill has not seen his job threatened since taking over for Mariota midway through the 2019 slate, though the Titans have featured one of the lowest-profile QB2 situations since Mariota left for Las Vegas.
Willis’ all-around skillset, which allowed the Auburn transfer to nearly put up a 3,000-1,000 season during a year in which he accounted for 40 touchdowns, will make things interesting for Tennessee — if the Titans struggle after losing a few key offensive starters.
Perhaps the biggest wild card here, Corral resides on a Panthers team that spent the past two offseasons trying to made a big quarterback splash. Sam Darnold still represents Carolina’s projected Week 1 starter, unless the team finally decides to acquire Baker Mayfield. The Panthers have balked at trading for the disgruntled Browns QB for several weeks, due to his $18.9MM fully guaranteed contract. Darnold and Corral’s performance this offseason may well determine if Mayfield ends up a Panther, with Matt Rhule on the hot seat and Darnold showing little — albeit behind a bad offensive line — in 2021. Corral finished last season with a 20-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, adding 11 rushing scores, and led Ole Miss to its first major bowl game in six years.
Which quarterback will make the most starts for his team this season? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
I think Trubisky is going to win that job, but even if Pickett gets it I think he’s gonna be a bust and benched. Ridder will take over for Mariota at some point if he doesn’t beat him out in the preseason, so he’s my vote.
Of course this is contingent on what happens with Baker Mayfield, but I think the clearest avenue for any QB is Carolina … Darnold is terrible. Think Corral has the best shot but this years draft is a crap shoot
Pickett no doubt is the best QB in this class,
but gotta assume Corral is gonna take the most 1st team snaps.
Trubisky would have to be blatantly terrible to lose the job before week 10 . (very possible, but he’ll have a long leash if he’s even decent… which I think he will be)
and to add to this, Pickett may be the most NFL ready guy,
but every QB is best served sitting out most of their rookie season and focusing on practice reps.
and while Pickett has some nice qualities, theres a ton he needs to develop like pocket presence, in which you pay dearly if you’re forced to learn that during games
(ask Mitch about that)
…in Carolina I don’t think theyre trying to develop any long term plan at QB,
seems more like with Darnold & Coral, hey we got 2 guys who can run & throw, send em out there
Ridder also should see some usage if Mariota gets hurt,
but don’t see him getting any starts while Marcus is healthy.
as for Malik, ILL STICK TO MY PRE-DRAFT EVALUATION ,
that he’s not an NFL starting QB ,, and thus has no chance of beating out Ryan Tannehil , or even another backup on the team, should Tanny go down.
Could be used on some trick plays, but doesn’t even boast elite athleticism to consider him a threat.
Trubisky may win the starting job out of training camp, but he simply isn’t good enough to lock it down unless Pickett doesn’t show well.
Carson Strong will make 7 starts this year.
I could see Trubs having the shortest leash, if he comes out and plays like his last few years with Bears then he could get benched by week 4. I don’t think Steelers fans have much patience for downright awful QB play, he could easily make the last few years of Big Ben look great by comparison and I doubt they’ll give Rudolph any snaps so it’s not unreasonable that Pickett will play early on.
Ben has been truly awful for the past three seasons. Immobile, inaccurate, and well below league average. Mitch is a mobile QB which is conducive to Matt Canadas offense. And your “last few years” comment is just ridiculous as Trubisky had the Bears at 12-4 and made a pro bowl just 3 seasons ago. What trailer park do you live in?
Yeah, agree. Roethlisberger was not only one of those guys who hung on too long, he also had an ego that precluded working with and help a successor. Was never a big fan and sorry, he still wasn’t at the same level as Bradshaw
I’m betting Trubisky is going to put the Steelers in a quandary if the O-line steps up. I believe he will do nothing that merits a QB change and “The Pickett Era” will have to wait
Either way, can’t be worse than the past two or three years
Awful? For three seasons? Most of the league’s starters would have similarly languished behind that line with those inconsistent receivers. The average fan has a long way to go in understanding how valuable smart QB play is to an NFL offense. Roethlisberger called the protections and protected the ball by getting rid of it at the quickest pace in league history (or close to it). That kept the Steelers in more games than they would have been in otherwise with that offense.
Ben hung around because apittsburgh had no future solution. If they had someone better, they’d have kickstarted the post-Ben era much earlier. Fact is, they didn’t. So to assume that Ben was holding the team back is ludicrous when he was far from its biggest issue.
I literally watched every game Trubs played in, he’s a bum. The team went 12-4 and just like Baker Mayfield the league desperately wanted to crown Trubs even though he wasn’t even very good in his pro-bowl year (which let’s be honest the pro bowl is a joke and he was an alternate). The guy is beyond inaccurate, can’t go through his progressions, and has happy feet, the bears absolutely ruined this guy. But sure maybe sitting behind Josh Allen fixed EVERYTHING wrong with Trubs but I really doubt it. By the way thanks for resorting to insults, that’s an instant admission that you lost the debate and that’s just embarrassing for a grown adult Lars.
Won’t be Pickett. I think they ride with Mitch unless he gets hurt or is a complete bust and then maybe it’s a different story, but otherwise, I think they give Pickett a year to hold a clipboard.
So, I don’t give two blanks about college sports and have never seen Pickett…but I was also unaware until he made news transferring, but evidently Pickett’s best year also coinciding with playing with an elite WR…
Pickett’s good year wasn’t a product of Jordan Addison, right?
Steelers better hope.
Aren’t starting nfl wide outs elite when compared to college #1s pretty much across the board? Sure a ton get drafted but few are nfl #1s or 2s. So that should benefit Pickett based on that view, like it seemed to do at Pitt…
I’m not saying he’ll struggle cuz his NFL WR aren’t as good as he had at Pitt…obviously.
Wondering if his much improved numbers this season can be traced to having an elite WR catch any bad pass and make it into something and taking coverage away from everyone else…or legit improvement by Pickett himself.
the film on Pickett last year was great.
doesn’t boast the best long ball, but can definitely make all the throws.
pocket presence wasn’t great either, but is extremely effective when rolling out of the pocket (early Ben)
overall he’s a smooth operator who’s very aware of routes and defenses. really good mobile short-passer perfect for Canada’s offense.
and to adress your point, no he wasn’t someone locked on to Addison.
he simply threw to whoever was open, but obviously mainy times were designed plays to get the ball in Addisons hands
I doubt ANY of the 2022 rookie QBs see the field at all this year.
Corrall. Us someone has to start and it might as well be the unknown commodity. We also know what Darnold is now a legit backup. Unless an injury happens elsewhere
Thing is, Corral hasn’t run an NFL offense. Before he gets the opportunity to even beat out Darnold, he’ll need to learn how to adapt to the NFL in general. There’s larger void ahead of him, but also a larger gap to traverse.
No doubt but I could see them start with a more college style offense and sprinkle things in bit by bit.
None of the 2022 QBs will touch the field in 2022-2023. The 2022 draft had the worst QBs I’ve seen ever. Pickett ain’t it but I’m not Pittsburgh tho. They clearly saw something in this Pickett guy while being high or had a couple of snorts.
I truly think it’ll be Matt Corral because I whole heartedly believe Carolina is gonna be the worst NFC South team this year and I think Darnold is benched by mid season barring a miracle
However, if somehow Pickett is named Starter prior to the start of the season, which I truly believe he won’t be, then it’ll obviously be him unless he’s absolutely terrible and/or injured. But I think Trubisky is a heck of a lot better then the one dude above me is putting off and as long as he’s at least average I see Pickett getting the redshirt, so I’m gonna stick with Corral.
Also, in my opinion other then a few rare cases I think majority of Rookie QBs should get the redshirt, I really believe it’s more beneficial then getting thrown out to the wolves, but I see Corral not having as much of a chance for that versus the rest of the crop.