As those who even casually follow the NFL predraft process know by now, this year’s collegiate class includes an intriguing but flawed set of quarterbacks, which has led to seemingly unprecedented variance in how executives throughout the league are evaluating the prospects who play the most important position in sports.
ESPN draftnik Todd McShay said, “[w]hat’s wild about this year’s class — more so than any previous year that I can remember — is the difference of opinions when I get off the phone with one guy in the league versus the next guy. And I’m not just talking about scouts, I’m talking general managers, guys who are making the decisions” (via Mike Triplett of ESPN.com).
Per McShay, one club has Ole Miss’ Matt Corral ranked as the top passer in the class, while several teams have Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder at the top of their respective draft boards. Liberty’s Malik Willis has frequently been mentioned as the QB with the highest ceiling, and while McShay suggests some teams prefer Willis to his draftmates, other clubs have Willis as the fourth-best signal-caller. Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, meanwhile, is generally viewed as either the best or second-best quarterback.
As one might expect in light of these differences in QB evaluations, there have been plenty of conflicting reports regarding how many passers might actually be selected in the first round. On Friday, Matt Miller of ESPN.com reported that it would not be a surprise to see Pickett as the only QB picked on Day 1, but Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network wrote on Saturday that the Saints and Steelers look like “sure bets” to nab a first-round quarterback, and that at least three QBs will hear their name called among the first 32 picks.
The Saints now have two first-round choices (Nos. 16 and 19 overall) by virtue of their trade with the Eagles earlier this month. McShay and others have opined that New Orleans did not make that move with the goal of selecting a quarterback, but it certainly puts the club in good position to do exactly that. Indeed, one thing that all evaluators do seem to agree on is that this year’s highest-profile QBs are not top-10 prospects, and are actually mid- to late-first-round talents. As such, even if the Saints do not want to package their two first-rounders in an effort to move into the top-10 and assure themselves of the opportunity to nab their preferred passer, they theoretically could still have their pick of the litter just by staying put (though the premium that teams place on the quarterback position suggests that such a strategy would be a risky one if New Orleans really does want to come away from the draft with its highest-rated quarterback in tow).
The Saints took top-30 visits with Corral, Pickett, Willis, and UNC passer Sam Howell, and that same quartet also met with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has heavily scouted this year’s quarterbacks and is said to prefer Pickett, though ESPN.com’s Jordan Reid (in the same Triplett piece linked above) reports that the Steelers are high on Ridder — with whom they also visited — and could be poised to pounce on the former Bearcat if he falls past the Saints.
Pauline writes that both Ridder and Corral are building first-round momentum, and he also hears that the Seahawks — who presently hold the No. 9 overall selection — could try to move into the back end of the first round to pick up a passer to groom behind Drew Lock. Earlier reports maintained that Seattle could use its top-10 choice on a QB, but Pauline’s piece implies that the club has other ideas for that pick. Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times reiterates that the ‘Hawks truly think Lock can be a legitimate NFL starter, which suggests that if team brass is targeting a quarterback in the draft, such a player would be acquired with the No. 40 or No. 41 pick or by packaging one or both of those picks to trade up 10 spots or so.
Shocking…SHOCKING…revelations!
The most shocking revelation is that Seattle thinks Drew Lock is an NFL starter. They have been saying it since they reached out to Denver to facilitate a RW trade, but it seems they haven’t seen him play. Someone get John and Pete some tape on Drew Lock. They also really liked them some Charlie Whitehurst and Matt Flynn.
Seahawks trades two first round picks for Jamal Adams. You shouldn’t be surprised about their evaluation of talent
Not surprised at all. Very concerned that Seahawks will have traded RW for picks and then use them to draft a bunch of LJ Colliers.
I think Flynn had a lot more good on tape than Lock did, so at least there was some precedent there. They’re just paying lip service to Lock right now-I’m sure that Seattle has no intention of starting him after this season, or even in this season if they can find another option.
That said, is there really any guarantee that any of these rookies will be any better? Lock looked great in college, though there were obviously a few questions, as there are with these guys. In this class, he would likely be considered the best quarterback available, and yet we saw what he did in Denver. I just don’t think that there is any guarantee that these guys give any team a better chance than who they have. Maybe the right team will offer the right situation, but that’s a tough bet.
Who has a better arm, Pickett or Trubisky?
JaMarcus Russell. He could throw 70 yards from one knee. Are you asking who is a better a QB or who can throw 70 yards from one knee?
Kid had a million dollar arm….but not even a 5 cent head.
So…because JaMarcus Russell stunk…arm strength is no longer part of the criteria of evaluating quarterbacks…?
Pretty sure it still is…
Sure it is..I think Trubisky has the stronger arm of the two. I have a good feeling about him.
ya I’d prefer they move up in round 2 if they want a QB.
too much talent to pass up on in R1 to take a QB
but then again, Pickett would be decent pickup, just not the smartest move when they could add a DT or WR
I agree with you, Goku
Trubisky has a pretty average arm, but Pickett’s isn’t especially strong. I couldn’t find any speed clocking of Pickett’s, but Trubisky threw a 55mph ball, which is above average. His deep ball touch is not good though, which you could consider as being either a function of not having a great arm or just not judging where he needs to go with it. Trubisky is much more accurate on shorter passes, but he can struggle with touch in general, so it could be unrelated. I’ve seen him put great zip on short or intermediate throws personally, so I don’t think that his arm is weak necessarily, just that it’s not especially strong.
Pickett doesn’t have any pro tape obviously, so it’s an even bigger guess as to how his arm will translate to making successful NFL throws, but he seems to have good arm strength, if not necessarily spectacular arm strength. He can put the ball where he needs to, like Trubisky, and has improved his accuracy a lot from his earlier career. I don’t think he has the strongest arm in the class, but it might be a little stronger than Trubisky’s in my opinion. He’s a little taller than Trubisky-by an inch-and the Steelers have a couple of tall linemen and throw a lot of slants currently. That might give him an edge, but I don’t see a significant size difference.
ya I think Pickett has all the tools to make it work in the right environment.
He’d have Pittsburgh fans backing him off grip.
I was pretty indifferent on him all off-season.. but now I’m 100% cool with them taking him even if there’s a tough pill to swallow still on the board.
I’m confident he’s the best QB in this draft if put in a good situation (obviously where these guys end up will shape their future)
Not saying that arm strength isn’t part of evaluation of a QB prospect, but that isn’t how you asked the question. Which QB has the ability to win NFL games and lead your franchise to a Super Bowl victory, Pickett or Trubisky? The answer neither. Which has a stronger arm though??
well the way Pittsburgh D played last year, if they can get holes open Najee and keep the D rested, then I would consider them a serious contender with even just average play at QB.
not saying it’s anything more than a long shot, but I wouldn’t put them in the same category as teams with no chance
With the right team, Trent Dilfer can win a Super Bowl! I’m saying neither of those QBs can win the SB without all the things that you stated, and no one can get hurt!
so you are admitting they can win a SB? lol
but im excited for draft… reason I’m higher on Kenny is bcuz a lot of the guys I like like Wyatt & Olave look like they won’t be there at 20
Copy! Let’s Draft Already!!!
let’s goooo
I just don’t see the Saints taking a QB in the 1st round. Too much need at LT, WR, LB. Maybe, maybe with their 2nd round pick. That’s just my opinion.
Saints aren’t drafting a QB they’re getting a defensive player and offensive linemen. They signed Andy Dalton & resigned Winston with Ian Book still there. James Hurst from North Carolina who was on the Ravens last year is not going to be your starting left tackle on a power run team. They also need corner as well.
Hurst hasn’t been a Raven for a couple years. Matter of fact, he’s been on the Saints the past two years and started 15 games
Okay, Hurst still ain’t any good.
What baffles me is that nobody seems to think the Saints have a weakness at LB except apparently you and me. I think it’s easily one of the most glaring holes on the team. If they trade up to select a QB, there’s going to be quite a deflating feeling amongst the fans.
Deannn.. and ya outside POV I’d give Winston another chance
Supply and demand makes it hard to imagine the QB’s fall that far. Too many teams really need a QB and with such even depth at so many other positions & a desire to trade down by teams at the top I could easily see an early run.
And we can’t overlook the ego factor most GMs possess. They’re always convinced they are the smartest guy in the room and can avoid the mistakes others have made.
This is the “I’ll settle for” QB draft. The Steelers should focus on their needs like OL and the secondary in the first round, but Tomlin wants one of these QBs and Colbert wants to exit with a splash. If they are going to do it, I will remind them of history and tell them not to pass on the Pitt QB like they did back in ‘83. If he’s gone, wait to get someone in the 2nd round or later.
Will get local guy Steelers. Day one will be see where QB’s go and like Fox,CBS,NBC wishing their were to covering Draft to live.
Ummm. What?
I want to believe in Pickett. I’ve watched him here for a couple years and the kid works hard on improving his game. He’s not Marino but he still has upside. But the nagging thing I keep returning to is the fact that he was playing in the ACC. I just wonder about what I was watching in context. This was not Joe Burrow making mincemeat out of the SEC
Kenny P is already a legend in Pittsburgh and feel he’d be a good fit long term.
this Malik Willis guy is a joke tho. Plays at Liberty, struggles with accuracy.
How is a 6’0 QB being called an athletic specimen?
if Malik Willis went to Pitt, he’d be moved to WR and catching passes from the real yinzer legend
Yeah. Because I’m old and tired I watched his pro day on NFL Network. Look, the kid is a good QB and has wheels. I get it. He’s good natured and team oriented and it resonated in workouts with his Liberty receivers. But again, I think there’s a lot of hype surrounding him right now
I know having “mobile quarterbacks” is the new NFL idea but I wonder about the shelf life of those kinds of players. Everyone is looking for another Mahomes when to me at least, Pickett is in the Burrows vein. Like I say, I want to believe in the kid and if they are going with a QB, I think he’s the choice
Problem is, there are a lot of needs to fill. Will be interesting
crazy I want from wanting him , to not wanting him , to now draft week and I definitely want Kenny P in black & gold even if it means pick 20
.. would certainly be hard to pass on Wyatt or Davis , but theres plenty of run stoppers on day 2.. same with WR & safety
goku… the all knowing
Taking any of these QBs in the first round is a stretch. Second round material at best. This just isn’t the year to get caught taking a QB in the first round based on need. That need will still exist.
Ridder is ridiculously overrated!
I disagree.
I’d go
Pickett, Howell then Ridder
this Malik kid has proven nothing and doesn’t have the size to match these other kids
I think it’s insane that teams would use a R1 on Malik who didn’t even run a 40 at the combine
Seattle lies a lot. You haven’t figured that out yet?
You are a real football fan
I say the Steelers round 1 board includes only a handful of players assuming 1 will almost certainly be available
Jordan Davis, Devonte Wyatt, Chris Olave, Kyle Hamilton, Kenny Pickett
I’m betting Skyy Moore lands here. Not only because of his connection with the Tomlin kids—and coach was at most of his high school games—but also because he’s one of the fastest receivers out there and would ably fill JuJu’s role
interesting.. I’ve heard the name.. don’t know much about him,
but know WR r1 makes a good deal of sense
I must be the only person who isn’t big on Chris Olave. I do like the Georgia tackles for Pittsburgh, though. Pickett might be their best fit out of the QBs, but I’d hope for their sake that they fill some needs and wait a year.
really? I actually think the 2 Ohio state revievers are the 2 best WRs in the draft..
both check every box for me , fluid runners, soft hands, sub 4.4 speed
what’s not to like?
I personally think it’s insane to draft a guy with a torn acl top 20 .. modern medicine or not, I’m not touching that guy if I’m other GMs.. u got a really undersized player to begin with and hes coming into the league with an serious injury before he even gets started. this is just a Tavon Austin with better routes.
and then you got this Drake London who supposedly moves unlike anyone at his size… yet he’s afraid to run the 40… I don’t buy it .. i smell a 4.45+
not a bad player, but is he someone you can throw to all the time as your main guy/top 20 pick? or is he just a guy who can bail you out downfield from time to time as am extra read?
he reminds me of a way less athletic Claypool or Tee Higgins…. who both went 2nd round
Not saying that arm strength isn’t part of evaluation of a QB prospect, but that isn’t how you asked the question. Which QB has the ability to win NFL games and lead your franchise to a Super Bowl victory, Pickett or Trubisky? The answer neither. Which has a stronger arm though??
Seattle doesn’t need to reach for any of these bums. We have a solid QB prospect in lock. He was a good QB in college and had a few nice games for the drunkos. Under the right teacher and scheme he can refund himself. He’s young big and has heart and Seattle fans are def starting to feel him. See what he can do , trade the pick and build the line.