The Jets have been connected to virtually every wide receiver who is, was, or could be on the trade block this offseason, and they are “all in” on 49ers WR Deebo Samuel, as Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network reports. New York currently holds the Nos. 4 and 10 overall selections in this week’s draft, and GM Joe Douglas is prepared to use the No. 10 choice as part of a package to acquire Samuel, who has requested a trade.
As Rich Cimini of ESPN.com writes, Douglas would obviously prefer to acquire Samuel without giving up either of his top-10 picks, though that seems like a pipe dream. San Francisco is said to have “zero intention” of trading its dynamic offensive weapon, and Cimini writes that, if the Niners do elect to make Samuel available, the Jets expect them to “ask for the moon.” Several days ago, Ralph Vacchiano of SNY.tv reported that the 49ers are not even listening to offers at this time.
Assuming San Francisco power brokers John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan do not deviate from that position, the Jets are going to have fill their WR need through the draft. Which may not be a bad thing. There are plenty of talented wideouts in this year’s collegiate class, and such a player would be cost-controlled for at least three seasons. Samuel, meanwhile, wants a deal with an AAV of at least $25MM, and though the Jets were willing to dole out that kind of money for Tyreek Hill, it’s still a steep price to pay, especially when combined with the draft capital that it will take to acquire Samuel.
The 49ers, who are coming off an NFC Championship Game appearance and who have designs on making another deep postseason run, obviously want to give presumptive QB Trey Lance as many weapons as possible. While the Jets’ No. 10 pick and (presumably) a handful of other draft choices would help to mitigate the loss of Samuel and would keep a hefty cap charge off the books in the coming seasons, Lance’s rookie contract affords plenty of cap flexibility in the near-term, and Samuel’s All-Pro presence would be difficult to replace.
Samuel is prepared to sit out the 49ers’ offseason program until he and the team reach an agreement on a long-term pact.
As good as he is, this is where the Jets will be the Jets and overpay. They need to continue building through the draft.
I mean…if they’re not trading the 10…they’re not getting him. And idk that I’d do that and have to pay him. Just one man’s opinion
It would be more than just the 10. But, I agree that it’s an overpay.
No team is paying that contract and more than the 10th overall pick.
I’d offer the 10th pick and that would be it. I agree with the others, why waste so many picks on 1 player. They tried that with 3 2nd’s to get Darnold. How did that turn out?
That’s kinda apples to oranges. One move is for an unproven potential franchise QB, the other is for a proven weapon who is the top playmaker in the game.
1-First rounder will not get it done for any all-pro. If I’m Lynch I need 3 picks with nothing later than day 2 of the draft
Hill and Adams didn’t even cost that much.
Hill got a first and second in 2022. Deebo is two years younger and has produced more as of late. So he should at least be worth a first and second, IMO
The production thing simply isn’t true. I love Deebo as a player, but come on.
the value of #10 overall is the same as the pack got for Adams. at best the Jets maybe add 1 3rd/4th.
The 10th overall pick doesn’t get it done for an expiring deal? Yeah, you’re living in reality bud.
You’re joking, right? The 10th pick is a lot of value for a player that other teams know doesn’t want to stay in SF. If they have that offer, my opinion is take it and run before you lose your leverage.
If they’re gutsy, fish for a late 3rd or high 4th in addition. No one is paying your rate, though.
So Deebo isn’t worth what Tyrek was traded for? Being two years younger and producing like him?
producing like him for a year and has a history of injury in his young career. He could be an all pro or the equivalent of the yankees aaron hicks or the mets jason bay. One or two good seasons and parlayed that into a big contract and he fell off a cliff / injured.
If it was just picks i may take the chance but you not only have to give picks, you have to give a big contract and by looking at the cap space left for the jets you will have to do some cutting or serious restructuring to get him under the cap. Right now i think the jets are about 18 under the cap and assuming they keep the draft picks they have i think that is around 19 mil based on sport cap.
A rare Jason bay call out dang
Samuel doesn’t get them into the playoffs. Why waste cost controlled picks and add massively to the payroll if it doesn’t get you over a hump? I’d wait and make a play for him if he hits free agency.
I can understand the Jets being interested. If they believe in Wilson, and I think they do, they probably want to give him every possible advantage. It’s a tough market. They’ve got Wilson on a cheap deal, so it’s a great time to pay a WR big. Plus, it’s a good situation to take advantage of because SF is in a bit of a bind. I think as long as the ask isn’t more than the 10th pick, makes sense.
with the 10th overall pick the 49ers select malik Willis because they feel a team behind them is interested
Then trade Lance for the 11th pick so they can draft a receiver at 10 and Willis at 11, committing to JG for ‘just’ one more year.
I know you’re not being serious but Lance wouldn’t fetch a 1st rounders at this point.
I think he would compared to the QB’s in this draft but that only works for this year
10th alone or maybe a 4-5th rounder or swaps somewhere in there. Dude is on his last year and SF doesn’t seem like they wanna pay what he wants.
Pipe dream if they think they’re getting much more than that for him. Jets can let SF keep him and stay disgruntled.
Jets aren’t a deep run playoff team this year so it makes no sense to trade the 10 for Debo
and then pay him. Just wait a year and sign him as a FA
I’m starting to think the major difference between good GMs and really great ones is good ones find make reasonable deals that help the team that have come to market. The great ones seek out what they want that haven’t hit the market yet and try to make it reasonable.
Like is Deebo honestly the best they can do for the money or if they dug deeper could they make something else happen? A lot of the really ‘Wow’ deals seem to come from surprise.
I know statistics don’t tell the whole story, but outside of the second half of last season, what is it about Samuel that puts him in the same class as Hill, Adams, and the other top WR in the game? Those guys have done it for multiple seasons and most importantly, are actually on the field. Is this guy overplaying his hand? Maybe just trying to capitalize on his stick being as high as it will ever be? I’m not trying to be critical. I am just genuinely curious as to what all the hubbub is about.
I believe the reason he is asking for such a lucrative contract is due to the dual nature of his game. Simply put, using him as both a receiver and a runner increases his value. It also reduces the likelihood of him having an extensive career, so he recognizes the importance of cashing in now.
Although you make a fair point with your comparison to the likes of Adams and Hill, bear in mind that Deebo is both younger and worked with an inferior quarterback
While I agree with everything you’ve said, I still cannot help but think of Leveon Bell. As a GM, I’d be wary of the price to pay, but SF knows there’s depredation out there, more specifically the Jets.
Bell was not a comparable situation. Bell had carried the ball over 1200 times in the NFL by the time he held out, including over 300 times his last year playing for the Steelers.
Yeah but the reason he doesn’t have more than the 248 total touches has to do with injuries.
You’re right it’s not comparable in the number of carries but Bell had started slowing down those last 3 years which is why Pittsburgh got what they could and moved on from him. Those 400 touches that last season there was pretty much them saying they were going to use up the last of his talent.
Deebo is only 3 years in but is showing signs of getting the bug. I don’t mind him trying to get paid but I get why a better team in SF wouldn’t do it while a worse one in the Jets would.
also if he plays enough snaps at “RB” position they can franchise him as a rb which is a lot less than WR.
Likely not. Attempting to tag the guy who makes All-Pro as a WR and say he played 100 snaps at the RB position so he’s a RB is how you get a grievance filed and still end up paying him while simultaneously looking like dummies as an organization.
true but they can argue based on where the player lines up the most they can be tagged at that position and a grievance can be filed if the player disagrees. That is the new rule based on a prior grievance for a TE (Kelce i think as he wanted to be tagged as a wr and not te) and i think if you are lined up in the “RB zone” over 60% of the time or something like that. You will be considered a rb regardless of your all pro status. This could be the reason Deebo is fighting about his use.
I think it’s more about the wear and tear of playing both. If the Jets or anyone else gives up a top ten pick for him, they’ll plan to sign him to a long term contract, so the franchise tag discussion would go away for now.
But he doesn’t log 20% of his snaps at the RB position so it’s a moot point.
He’s really good, he’s younger, and there’s room between $20 million and what those guys are making.
Ron Jeremy is the only person I can think of who has gone “all in” on someone more often than the Jets.
Which one has caught more diseases that way? It could be the Jets…
Maybe I’m misunderstanding the situation, but here’s my take on it. Please feel free to correct me, if I’m wrong.
Samuel as a 2nd round pick is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 22-23 NFL Season. His rookie season was average, not superstar material. His second season was worse due to injury and he broke out in season three, when he was used differently.
Samuel wants to be paid now. The Niners want to wait to see if last season was an outlier or the norm that can be expected from now on before doling out the big bucks.
Samuel can hold out but still needs so many games played this season to get credit for a year of service time and unrestricted free agency. If Samuel plays and has another standout year, then he is a free agent and Niners can Franchise Tag him, if they wish. If they choose to franchise tag Samuel on the Transition tag, Samuel gets to shop for his best deal or sign the tag. The Niners can choose to either match the deal or take two 1st round draft picks as compensation? If my understanding is correct, why would the Niners accept only one 1st round pick in a trade, if they have 2 coming their way in free agency?
It would be just like the lowly Jets to give up BOTH 1st round picks then pay him $25 mill per season. Lol
No guarantee the Jets scheme him open as well as the 49ers either
It would be such a jets things to do… please give up the tenth pick (+) and subsequently overpay a decent wide receiver who doesn’t want to be utilized the only way he actually has had success in the NFL. Plus add in Zach Wilson and this whole thing becomes a joke. One can only hope that Joe Douglas pulls this off.
Let’s look at it this way: SF would likely want picks in this year’s draft rather than future draft picks. That said, the Jets should wait it out. If someone else wanted Deebo, they would have stepped up and made the trade already. The price will go down if the relationship with SF is irreparable. SF will lose leverage if Deebo gets hurt in practice or holds out.
Bottom line: don’t trade #10. Stand your ground Jets. Let the situation play out and swoop in when the time is right.
Expiring deal.
Flip of 10 & SF 1st plus a 3rd.
Or two 2nds