Every team in the NFL came into the 2021-22 season with a plan at quarterback. Some of those plans have gone awry and some of those plans have proven unsuccessful. The Texans, Football Team, and Saints have seen injuries dismantle their plans for Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jameis Winston, respectively. The Giants, Panthers, and Lions hoped for promising seasons behind youngsters Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, and Jared Goff, respectively, but a lack of success has left them disappointed. The Broncos might not see Teddy Bridgewater return after a one-year deal. And teams like the Falcons and Steelers have aging veterans in Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger, respectively, that may be starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Any of these teams may stick it out and see their plans through, and any teams that seem set at the quarterback position may decide that some young talent may improve their franchise. Well, there’s only one place to go for young football talent, and that leads us to the pool of top quarterback prospects presumed to be available in the 2022 NFL Draft.
When you look at the list of college quarterbacks preparing to enter the NFL next season, you’ll notice something a little different from years past. There is no Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield. That is to say there is no unanimous top quarterback prospect with star power that led their team to the College Football Playoffs. Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder achieved what was seemingly impossible: guiding a Group of 5 school into the College Football Playoffs, but most GMs in the NFL do not see him as a first-round pick.
Instead, NFL GMs and evaluators seem to have narrowed it down to two quarterback prospects most likely to be taken on day one of the NFL Draft: Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett and Ole Miss’s Matt Corral.
Pickett spent most of his freshman season in 2017 as a backup with his first start coming against the visiting Miami Hurricanes who were ranked second in the country by the College Football Playoff Committee going into the last week of the regular season. Pickett introduced himself to the college football world by leading the 4-7 Panthers to a huge upset over the Hurricanes. Pickett took over the starting job and never looked back. The next couple of years were nothing to brag about as he threw 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in both his junior and his senior seasons. But COVID-19 granted him a fifth year of eligibility and he made sure to take advantage. In his final year, Pickett completed 67.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards, throwing 42 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. Pickett led the Panthers to their first ever ACC Championship and finished third in Heisman voting.
Corral spent his freshman season backing up current Washington practice squad quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and took a redshirt after only appearing in four games. He took over the next year as the Ole Miss starting quarterback and led the team to a 4-8 finish completing 59.0% of his passes for 1,362 yards and throwing 6 touchdowns to 3 interceptions as a redshirt-freshman. Corral developed over the next two years, completing 69.5% of his passes for a combined 6,670 yards and throwing 49 touchdowns to 18 interceptions over his redshirt-sophomore and -junior seasons. The intrigue with Corral comes from what he adds on the ground. Over those final two seasons, Corral added 1,103 yards and 15 touchdowns rushing the ball. It should be noted the Corral hasn’t technically announced his intentions to enter the NFL Draft, but he posted an announcement calling Ole Miss’s matchup against Vanderbilt his “final game” at the Rebel’s home stadium, a strong indication of his intentions.
While those two are widely considered the most likely quarterbacks to go in the first round, it is also a fairly popular opinion that three quarterbacks could be taken on day one of the Draft. Who that third quarterback will be is up to a lot of speculation.
Two of the more common names to pop up in that conversation are Nevada’s Carson Strong and Liberty’s Malik Willis. Strong had a breakout performance in the COVID-shortened season and built off of that success in his redshirt-junior year completing 70.2% of his passes for 4,186 yards and tossing 36 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in 2021. Willis transferred from Auburn to Liberty for the 2020 season and led the Flames to a 10-1 season and a final ranking of 17th in the AP poll in Liberty’s third season in the FBS. Like Corral, Willis brings a lot to the table with his legs as well as his arms. In two years with the Flames, Willis threw for 44 touchdowns and ran for 25 more. He led quarterbacks in rushing yards in 2020 and finished third in that same category this year.
One of the two quarterbacks who finished with more rushing yards than Willis this season, is North Carolina’s Sam Howell. Before the 2021 season was played, Howell saw his name frequently in the top 5 of “way-too-soon” mock drafts. Many expected, with Howell as a third-year starter, that the Tar Heels would stake their claim at the top of the ACC, but a down year for the team hurt Howell’s draft stock. While Howell saw his passing numbers drop a bit from past seasons, he found a new talent for rushing the ball piling up 825 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.
The last name that seems to find its way into the conversations is Desmond Ridder. Yes, I said that most GMs don’t see Ridder as a first-round pick, but most doesn’t mean all. Ridder has produced every season as a four-year starter saving his best year for last. And while he didn’t run the ball quite as much this year, he’s shown his abilities in past years racking up 650 yards in 2019 and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2020. Perhaps most importantly, Ridder knows how to win, achieving a 44-6 record in four years as a Bearcat, with the possibility of adding two more wins to that total.
So buckle up for an intriguing leadup to the 2022 NFL Draft. With so many differing opinions and valuations, chaos is sure to ensue as teams try to gauge just how long they can wait for their favorite quarterback prospect. The headline names may not be sexy and the certainty of teams’ decisions won’t resemble what we saw in 2012 when Indianapolis and Washington informed Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III of their decisions days before the Draft, but that shouldn’t make April 28, 2022, any less entertaining!
This weak selection will only drive up the trade value of Rodgers and Watson.
As things currently stand I see
Kenny Pickett goes #12 to Washington
Malik Willis #15 to Denver if they can’t get Rodgers or Wilson or Watson in the off season
Matt Coral #19 to the Saints
Carson Strong goes to Detroit in 2nd round
Desmond Ridder goes to Steelers 2nd round
Sam Howell goes to Falcons 2nd round
Carolina opts to brings back Newton instead of using a top 10 pick on a QB.
I too was thinking Willis quite possibly to Denver.
Not saying you’re wrong, but a lot of those 1st round picks scream of reaching for need. There’s nothing in this QB group that makes me believe any of them are day one picks.
Teams have a tendency to over drafted QBs.
I dont see teams trading up this year to nab a signal caller but if a QB they like happens to fall to them I can see them taking a chance not having to give up picks and players.
Yeah it’s not necessarily about the players; it’s more about the teams that need quarterbacks
No way Newton is still Carolina’s starter next season. Or Darnold. Or Walker. Their starter next season is out of house, I guarantee it.
Starting Quarterback predictions for next season:
Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
Lions: Jared Goff (with Malik Willis waiting in the wings)
Texans: Davis Mills (they also trade up at the back of the second round for Strong but Mills wins competition)
Jets: Zach Wilson
Giants: Kenny Pickett (bye bye Daniel Jones)
Bears: Justin Fields
Panthers: Tua Tagovailoa (via 3-tm trade with MIA and HOU)
Seahawks: Derek Carr (plus a bunch of future first-rounders)
Falcons: Matt Ryan
Raiders: Russell Wilson
Eagles: Jalen Hurts (Wins offseason competition with Minshew)
Vikings: Kirk Cousins
WFT: Matt Corral
Broncos: Aaron Rodgers
Dolphins: Deshaun Watson (finally! Not that I have to like it though)
Saints: Jameis Winston (over Taysom Hill and Sam Howell)
Steelers: Teddy Bridgewater (they also draft Ridder)
Browns: Baker Mayfield
Ravens: Lamar Jackson
Bills: Josh Allen
49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo (Cause Lance ‘isn’t ready yet’)
Chargers: Justin Herbert
Colts: Carson Wentz (Because they won’t move on from him cause ‘Carson is our qb’)
Bengals: Joe Burrow
Titans: Ryan Tannehill
Patriots: Mac Jones
Rams: Matthew Stafford
Cardinals: Kyler Murray
Buccaneers: Tom Brady
Cowboys: Dak Prescott
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
Packers: Jordan Love (Unless the Pack wins the Super Bowl. Nothing short of that will satisfy Rodgers)
I will be incredibly disappointed if you’re right, SC. The Raiders do not need a QB. Derek Carr is a good one. Trading for Russ would be silly. They don’t need a QB. They need more WRs, a Guard and some secondary help.
I don’t really understand why everyone is so far down on Carson Wentz. I’m not going to pretend he’s been outstanding or anything, but his numbers this year are in line with what he put up in 2019. He has, at the very least, been adequate.
It’s not like the Colts can really be expected to find anyone better unless they make yet another trade anyway.
Also, at this stage of their respective careers, I don’t think Carr is so much worse than Wilson that LV would need to throw in more than one future first rounder. As pointed out by Appalachian_Outlaw, the Raiders should be using their draft capital to improve weaker areas of their roster
Yeah I do agree that Wentz has been adequate, but the Colts need a guy who can carry the team and not just Jonny Taylor. The TEAM in itself is adequate, at best. I believe a good quarterback, plus a couple more good receivers, is the difference between good and average.
Plus, why not go get Russell Wilson? He’s an upgrade from Carr and he’s on Russ’s list. Yes, it’s somewhat risky, but if he’s back at pre-finger level next season, that could potentially turn the Raiders around.
Both of you do have valid points though.
Is Russ an upgrade over Carr? I don’t believe so, at least not significantly so. He may do a few things better, but not to the point you trade multiple 1sts.
Carr is a good QB. The Raiders are an average team. He has them right about .500, which given the talent (or lack of) at some spots on the team is outstanding.
Russ is a good QB, too. It’s not as if he’s willing a bad Seahawk team to the playoffs, though.
You make the trade and Russ is on a mediocre LV team with no draft capital to improve. I don’t understand why people feel this works.
No thanks. Keep Carr, let Russ go wherever… and draft a deep threat WR, CBs who can play… and please get a Guard because Leatherwood is terrible.
Time for the falcons to cut bait with Ryan, not saying he’s not serviceable but they need to retool/rebuild. Rb core is terrible outside of patterson, WR group sucks, Ridley hasn’t show anything as the main go to. Pitts is used terribly. Offensive line should all be released. Get what you can for him and start over. Just my opinion.
Yes. If I were in charge of the Falcons, I would cut or trade him. However, I think the Falcons will give him another year just because teams are never quick to move on from qbs – remember last year everyone thought Big Ben was gonna go, but now he’s going a year later. I think something similar happens here while the Falcons rebuild their roster. Maybe they go get someone in the 2nd round, I dunno. I still think Ryan will end up being their starter for one more year.
What an underwhelming group.
That’s the point of the article genius
Why the condescending comment? Sheesh.
A little salty.
Why waste a first rounder on any of those choices? Feel bad for any team that does.
“Youngster Jared Goff” a 6 year veteran in the middle of a 134m contract is not a youngster.
Would you rather have Jalen Hurts or Matt Corrall/Kenny Pickett?
Pass
For next year it’s obviously Hurts. Long term Hurts contract would end several years earlier so that’s a consideration.
A lint covered Tasty Cake.
I think you stick with Hurts/Minshew for the time being and continue to build up the rest of the roster. Once the roster is strong enough, be active on the trade market to look for an upgrade if neither of the incumbents have proven capable of leading the team
I definitely would stick with Minshew, or, if Philly insists on sticking with Hurts, take advantage of this class and flip him to Denver or Pittsburgh or somewhere else (Carolina honestly seems like the best bet to me).
Sam Hartman of Wake Forest should be a third-day sleeper for somebody. He’s not an NFL starter (yet) but should be an excellent draft-and-develop guy.
I like him too, but even though he’s eligible, as a redshirt sophomore I don’t think it’s a good idea to leave so early unless he’s a guaranteed top pick. With another good year next year, he could be.
In the next few months you’ll see QBs climb the mocks to a point much higher than their actual worth just because so many teams are chasing their “franchise QB”. See Trey Lance, he had no business going where he went.
Lance would go 1-1 in this year’s draft.
Which would be even more embarrassing than being picked 3rd overall and needing at least 1 if not 2 “redshirt” years. In the newer NFL you can’t afford to put the draft capital on the line to pick that high and not be able to plug in as a starter from day 1.
How many times have we seen GMs enter the draft with some brilliant QB plan but absolutely no plan on how to provide OL support for their chosen savior?
Pickett would be off my draft board after bailing on his team. He reminds me of Bo Callahan now.
I think I am much more interested in seeing how these QBs develop than seeing where they ultimately end up. I don’t think that any are, as it stands now, can’t miss prospects.