With two defensive ends topping most 2022 NFL mock drafts and the Texans staring down a potential spot in the top 3 draft picks, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that his sources have told him Houston may elect to draft Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson or Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux should rookie quarterback Davis Mills show promise in the last four games of the season.
The third-round pick out of Stanford has started seven games this season, taking over for season starter Tyrod Taylor after Taylor suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2 of this season. When Taylor returned to health, Mills went back to his backup role. In Week 13, due to an injured wrist and general ineffectiveness Taylor was benched for Mills and the Texans announced that Mills would be tabbed as the starter for the remainder of the season.
In his play as a rookie, Mills has shown impressive accuracy completing 65.8% of his passes. He’s thrown for eight touchdowns and eight interceptions and, in games he’s started, he’s averaged about 227 passing yards per game for a Texans team that isn’t necessarily rich in offensive weapons. The Texans did say that, if Mills struggles down the stretch, they still may aim for a quarterback with a high draft pick.
This decision may end up being a bit more complicated than they’re currently saying. If Mills shows too much promise en route to proving they don’t need to draft a quarterback and wins a couple of games, he could potentially push them out of range of the draft’s top defensive ends. If Mills does indeed struggle in the tail end of the season and Houston decides they need to draft one of the top quarterbacks available in the draft, due to the lack of a consensus top quarterback prospect, they may be tempted to let an anxious team trade up into their high draft pick, assuming that some of the top quarterback prospects may still be available throughout the top 10 picks.
Regardless of the their thought process, Houston has provided Mills with motivation and an opportunity to take hold of the starting job and has put the onus on him to determine how they approach the 2022 NFL Draft. In his attempts to prove his starting abilities, Mills will face the Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, and Titans in the final four games of the season.
Draft DE no matter what, there will be solid options in the top of round two
If there’s no QB prospect worthy of a top five pick, don’t spend a top five pick on one. There’s no sense in drafting a low upside or low probability QB prospect that high when they have a hole in the ground for a roster.
Trevor, Zach, & Trey haven’t done squat this year. We were told they were awesome. This groups is ‘supposed’ to less than them?
Even top QB prospects are often mediocre as rookies. Those guys were still better prospects coming out than anyone in this draft.
How do you know that? Not being rude, it’s a crap shoot.
Because I’m talking about what they are as prospects, not guaranteeing the future.
Same thing. You and I don’t know. Always draft a QB, always. Andy Reid is famous for drafting QB’s developing them and trading them. He flipped QB’s non-stop while in Philly. He flipped Alex Smith for 2 2’s when he had Mahomes.
That doesn’t mean you draft a QB in the top five when no one thinks any of them is worth it. There’s such a thing as bad QB drafts. You wouldn’t want to draft EJ Manuel top five.
Why would you overdraft a QB, throw them out there behind a terrible team and expect that to be a recipe for success? I won’t sit here and say I’m a QB expert, but we’ve seen that experiment in New York with more talented QBs for a few seasons and it’s never gone well.
What do you mean by ‘over draft a QB’? Using Matt Carrol as an example. Many ‘experts’ give him a 1st round grade right. So does it matter if he’s drafted 1st, 10th, 20th or, like Lamar 32nd? Still a 1st round pick.
No one had Lamar as a QB. He was asked to try as a WR. And by far, the best in his class.
1) You know there’s a difference between 1st and 32nd, right? Not saying it’s an exact science, but you can even see value generated in the draft over the years tends to be pretty linear from early picks to late. There are busts and Cinderellas, of course, but wisdom of the crowds does pretty well. And if you draft a guy who’s, say, 25th on consensus boards at 5th overall, you’re leaving value on the table unless you turn out to be extremely correct (which, granted, is more likely with a QB).
2) The Lamar thing just isn’t true. Bill Polian thought he should be a WR. Bill Polian was no longer running a team. People thought that’s who New Orleans was trading up for. Also, I’m pretty confident the Ravens had him as a first round QB, seeing as they drafted him in the first round to be a QB.
What’s the difference? The Jags, Jets, and Raiders (for example) have been drafting in the top 10 year in year out. While the Ravens, Pats & GB always draft much lower, who wins? It’s knowing the actual value of talent, not what their ‘grade’ is.
Parity is BS. There are some changes in playoff teams. But many stay while many others stay drafting in the top 10.
2. I didn’t see NO trade up for Lamar. that’s over. Balt traded up for him.
OK, so how is that an argument for over-drafting a checkered QB prospect? All three of those successful teams you’ve cited have historically traded down for more picks. That’s a great idea if they can do it.
Yes they are. And we see with Trevor and Zach how a young QB with no o line and weapons makes the most elite prospects look horrible. Draft a DE or OL and wait for Bryce. or Stroud
So you’re a QB expert? I haven’t seen anything from Trevor or Zach this year expect bad QB’ing. Jets have been much more competitive with vets than Zach and Trevor threw 4(?) picks today?
A veteran qb played better than a rookie? Who could’ve guessed
Mike White is such a stud vet! Or 40 year old Flacco.
Always draft the best available player. Doesn’t appear there will be any top qb prospects this year so either draft the best available guy or trade back for a haul of picks
The Texans have shown impeccable skills at choosing the wrong players in the draft. They should 100% not trade for more picks. Smart play would be to build the offensive line the MAYBE JUST MAYBE we don’t destroy another QB’s career for a change.
Not sure what you are talking about. Last eleven Texans 1st round picks are Howard (23rd), Watson (12), Fuller (21), Johnson (16), Clowney (1), Hopkins (27), Mercilus (26), Watt (11), Jackson (20), Cushing (15), and Brown (26). Hard to do much better.
You’re really going all the way back to 2009? All the Texans have to show from the last five first rounds is one bad offensive lineman and one good, very expensive offensive lineman. Not hard to do much better.
They didn’t have 1st round picks in 3 of the last 5 draft. The two they choose were Watson and Howard (neither were bad picks where they were taken). At least educate yourself before making public comments.
I was referencing their trading, which is where they spent those picks. And Howard was seen as a reach at the time.
Ffs. Draft oline. Draft WRs. Draft offensive help. If he shows promise get him some fk’n help. Plenty of good WRs in the 2nd and 3rd round projections. If youre at #2/#3 draft Evan Neal or trade back if he’s not there and acquire draft assets to build the roster.
It really doesn’t matter who they draft. They’ll mess it up anyways.
Truth!
It’s a complex and fluid situation because of Deshaun Watson’s situation. If there’s any kind of resolution there that doesn’t involve him going to jail, then the Texans are going to have several first round picks. Of course, that’s assuming there actually is a resolution before the draft.
Draft, smaft, Cal boy and his crony, sleazy sidekick will somehow screw it all up.
Please sell the team to someone that actually knows what they are doing.
Negative. Draft OT Evan Neal. The Texans have had the same problem for years they never really invested in the offensive line. Tunsil is great but you can’t have one great tackle with 4 other poor performing guards/Center/tackles and expect a positive outcome. Invest in the O-line! It’s not a sexy pic but it’s the smart one!
The problem is they’ve invested a TON in their offensive line. Just in the last three drafts, they’ve invested 3 first round picks, 1 second round pick, and 2 fourth round picks in their current offensive line, including the picks they dealt for Tunsil (and not counting the money they also gave him). Of course, with this team, you could make an argument for drafting just about any position as long as the player is actually good.
Spending picks to trade doesn’t make much sense, very short term thinking. The way to build offensive line is one first or second round pick at a time. Sometimes there’s lots of guards, sometimes there is a good selection of tackles. Grab some of the best and build. Offensive line coach is very important when building around draft picks of course. His salary doesn’t go on the cap either. Hire the best one money can buy.
These teams need to stop forcing the issue with these draft picks. Draft the most talented player, not the position you need the most. It’ll help the team in the long run. Ex. Myles Garrett was drafted over Watson and a few others and is the best or second best member of that draft class
Caserio did well in draft last year. Mills, a 3rd rounder, has really only been outplayed by Mac Jones as far as rookie QBs. Nico Collins, Bbrevin Jordan, and Lopez have all outplayed their draft positions. Let’s see what he does in 22. I’m guess he either takes Thibodeaux, Hutchinson, Neal, Hamilton or Stingley if drafting in top 5. Otherwise he trades back. I really hope Watson mess gets cleaned up enough to trade him to the Giants or Eagles to get an additional 2 1st round picks this year.
Collins cost two 4ths and a 5th. A little early to say he’s worth it given what we’ve seen so far.