Back in March, the Falcons managed to carve out some cap space by restructuring the contract of Matt Ryan. However, it sounds like at least one member of the front office wasn’t a proponent of the move. According to Tori McElhaney of The Athletic, Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot “didn’t really want to make” the move.
Fontenot was brought in as GM in January, and the organization needed some immediate breathing room to participate in the early parts of the offseason. While the Ryan restructuring reduced the quarterback’s cap number to $14MM, it also converted $21MM of Ryan’s $23MM upcoming base salary into future signing bonuses (spread out over the duration of his contract). The means Fontenot will have to once again deal with a muddled cap sheet next offseason, which was something he was presumably looking to avoid.
According to the writer, the recently hired GM ultimately “thought his hands were tied,” and he believed the team’s only solution to opening some necessary cap space was to either restructure Ryan or cut Deion Jones. Ultimately, the organization decided to rework Ryan’s contract, the fourth time the quarterback has restructured his mega-deal. Ryan will now have cap hits north of $40MM in 2022 and 2023.
The team (temporarily) committed to Ryan when they decided to not select a quarterback during this past year’s draft. Considering the money that’s owed to Ryan over the next few years, the team will likely be stuck with the veteran. Ryan hasn’t made a Pro Bowl since 2018, but he’s still completed 65.6-percent of his passes while averaging 26 touchdowns vs. 12.5 sacks over the past two years. Ryan won’t have one of his favorite targets with Julio Jones out of the picture, but the team still added tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 pick to pair with 2020 second-team All-Pro Calvin Ridley.
Ryan hasn’t made the Pro Bowl because the Falcons have been abjectly awful on both offense and defense. Ryan, however, has individually played well. Watching his mechanics and progressions shows that he still can read the field at a quick pace, and deliver accurate passes with enough arm strength to still have velocity and deliver deep balls. All advanced metrics show that Ryan is still one of the league’s best passers inside the pocket, both in terms of accuracy and depth of target.
If the Falcons can improve their receiving corps behind Ridley (Gage is alright but they lack a big play threat currently, and have since Jones’ injuries began last year), improve their offensive line protection to a comparable level where it was a few seasons ago, and of course find an answer on the ground, Ryan’s success rate will improve. I would expect him to have at least two or three years left as a conservative estimate, and given the low chances of a team trading for his now back laden contract, the Falcons’ best bet is to field a competitive team within the next two years, and select a quarterback then instead of now. Ryan will likely play his deal as it stands now, and he can still perform, so Atlanta may as well focus on other areas of the team until Ryan slips. They have much less urgency than it would seem to move on from him, especially after this restructure.
The Falcons have been chasing a title for 54 years so it’s hard to understand why some fans are suddenly impatient to start a rebuild now. Ryan still gives them their best chance at that success that has been so elusive.
Talent wise, he gives the Falcons their best chance. Cap wise, maybe there is an equivalent QB at a fraction of the cost.
… as in drafting a QB and having him play on a rookie deal
Drafting a young QB as a potential heir has a lot of merit provided you keep Ryan around as a mentor. I think that could be accomplished by restructuring some other contracts.
I like the strategy that Ron Rivera is following in Washington: build the team first, and then bring in the new QBOTF, rookie or not. That could be a rookie, or it could be the next Matt Stafford or Philip Rivers, a veteran you trade for or sign in free agency. What I might do if I were Atlanta’s GM is start using Day 2 and Day 3 picks on QB prospects, and see if any of them develop before I use a first rounder on the position. I might also give a Rosen, Trubisky or Haskins a shot at redemption as a back-up. McCarron is a good QB2 for now, though.
I don’t think the chances of trading Ryan are that “low,” given that nearly half of the backloading of his contract over the next two years is in prorated signing bonus, which has already been paid and would therefore remain on Atlanta’s books and not migrate over to his new team’s ledger. The new team would be responsible for Ryan’s base salary and annual roster bonuses, not his prorated signing bonus. All numbers from OTC:
2022
– Prorated Signing Bonus, $24,912,500 (stays in ATL)
– Base Salary, $16,250,000 (new team)
– Roster Bonus, $7,500,000 (new team)
–Current Cap Hit for ATL, $48,662,500 (#1 for QB’s)
–Total cap hit for new team, $23,750,000 (#12)
2023
– Prorated Signing Bonus, $15,612,500 (stays in ATL)
– Base Salary, $20,500,000 (new team)
– Roster Bonus, $7,500,000 (new team)
–Current Cap Hit for ATL, $43,612,500 (#3)
–Total cap hit for new team, $28,000,000 (#9)
Trading for the 12th and 9th overall QB cap hits in 2022 and 2023 would not be all that intimidating for a contender looking to make a change at QB that thinks Ryan is still playing at a high enough level. The real kicker is what the new team would be responsible for if they traded for him THIS year: all of $2 million in base salary (plus the 2022 and 2023 “new team” totals noted above), AND THAT’S IT, since he gets no roster bonus this year and all of the rest of his 2021 cap hit is made up of prorated signing bonus, which stays with Atlanta.
I don’t think Ryan would bring in quite the haul that the Lions got for Stafford, mainly based on his age, but the cap hits that any new team would be responsible for shouldn’t be a bridge too far for them.
Good points, cka2nd. In all honesty, I have a sneaking suspicion that Matt Ryan is more likely to end up in Denver than Aaron Rodgers at the end of the day, but Atlanta may as well keep him until they’ve drafted their next QB in my humble opinion. They will need a leader for all of the new faces in the room the next couple of years, whether they realize that or not, which is the most overlooked aspect of building a new roster.
Stick a fork in them the Bird has cooked. Why bring in a GM and not let him do want he wants to do? I will tell you why. Poor ownership.
Nah, they’re far from done. The loss of Julio will hurt, but they’re better than N.O. and Carolina.
Ultimately the GM is an employee, so he shouldn’t get Carte Blanche to do what he wants. I’d agree it’s not wise for an owner to meddle in every decision, but I feel like Blank was inbounds here.
I don’t know whether this is more encouraging or flat out disappointing….
Gotta go with disappointing. Terry knows what a drag an aging QB on a huge contract can be, but he was overruled by a meddling, emotionally-attached owner and a HC who cares more about 2021 than 2022 and beyond.
I said it before, and I’ll say it again – we’ll regret not drafting Justin Fields in a few years.
Don’t worry Falcon fans, your team will have opportunities to draft a high QB over the next few offseasons.. Im still not sold that Fields is as elite as some “experts” think
That’s the jilted Dawg fan in you talkin… you can’t seriously believe Fields isn’t talented. He’s gonna be a beast and will likely win a SB in Chicago before we ever do in ATL.
Why accept the GM role if you can’t build your own roster? Easiest way to get fired right?
The only advantage there is that you can’t be made the fall guy if you weren’t involved in making the decisions.
If you aren’t involved in the decision making, then why take the decision making job? Not trying to argue, but it seems ‘what do we do with an old QB & WR?” would have been a primary talking point during the interview process.