While Bill Belichick has earned praise for his successful late-round picks, many of his championship rosters have been predicated on early-round draft selections. However, a pair of recent first-round picks have disappointed during their tenures in New England, and the young duo could find themselves playing elsewhere come the start of the 2021 season.
Erik Scalavino of the Patriots website recently discussed the trade availability of edge rusher Chase Winovich (something we looked at yesterday), and the writer believes that running back Sony Michel and wideout N’Keal Harry could also be on the trade block:
“[Winovich] and a handful of other Patriots (Sony Michel, N’Keal Harry?) could be potential trade prospects come August or early September. As always, what their value would be is impossible to predict, but summertime trades often involve player-for-player swaps between teams needed to strengthen certain positions. Something to keep in mind.”
Let’s start with New England’s 2018 first-rounder (No. 31 overall). Michel actually looked like he was well worth his draft stock during his rookie year. He collected 981 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in 13 regular season games, and he added another six scores during the Patriots’ run to a championship. Michel’s counting stats went up a bit in 2019 thanks to him appearing in three more games, but his yards per carry dropped from 4.5 (2018) to 3.7 (2019). Michel spent much of the 2020 campaign on the IR and COVID list, finishing with a career-low 563 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.
Still, Michel has showed plenty of promise (especially when it matters most), and he’s still only 26 years old. Why would the Patriots shop the young running back? For starters, the former first-rounder is an impending free agent after the Patriots declined to pick up his fifth-year contract. Further, the Patriots haven’t shown any trust in the running back’s ability to catch the ball (26 receptions in 38 games), and it’s clear Michel will never be a three-down back. Considering those two factors, it seems unlikely that Michel will be playing in New England beyond 2021. Finally, New England has plenty of depth at the position; 2019 third-rounder Damien Harris is projected to be the starter, James White will be back in his pass-catching role, and the team also added Rhamondre Stevenson in the fourth round of this year’s draft.
Harry’s spot on the trade block makes a lot more sense. Since being selected with the 32nd pick in the 2019 draft, the Arizona State product has struggled to show much during his limited opportunities. Harry couldn’t find a groove with Tom Brady during his rookie season, finishing with only 105 receiving yards. With much less receiving depth in 2020, Harry only saw a slight uptick in numbers, finishing with 309 yards from scrimmage. The Patriots have done some work improving their pass-catching corps this offseason, including the additions of veterans Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. This will only slide Harry further down the depth chart.
We haven’t done a whole lot to inspire confidence in either of these young players…so why would rival squads be interested? Well, both players are still on their rookie contracts, making them relatively inexpensive, (potentially) high-upside reclamation projects. Further, while the Patriots have a bit of a roster crunch at each position, there’s no real urgency nor financial advantage to cut the players. If a rival team is interested in Michel and/or Harry, they’ll likely have to acquire the player(s) via trade. New England obviously won’t come close to recouping their first-round investment, but the team could net a late-round pick.
One thing is certain: 2021 will surely be a make-or-break year for both Michel and Harry. The big question is if that crucial season will take place in New England or elsewhere.
As a Pats fan, I don’t think anyone would give anything of value for Sony going into his contract year but Harry does still have some upside and he apparently lost some weight this offseason. If Harry were dealt, I’d prob expect maybe a 5th
I think Sony value is down mainly because everyone knows he is pretty much the odd man out. Heck in there own division Mitchell would probably make it on the roster with the Jets. Perrine is ok but im scared he is the number 1 when you have a new QB with young or new to the team receivers with a new coach. I like Coleman is there to show the team the offense style but i dont know if i would consider him a viable number 1 or 2 rb considering his injury history. Mitchell isnt great but he can be your 1st down back and run hard and be there for depth. Unfortunately i dont know much about carter but if he is number 3 with those 2 ahead it is not saying much.
I would throw a conditional 7th to the pats based on %snaps or some productive stat like YPC as they probably wont get much more than that as an offer.
Pack 40lbs on him and make him a TE. That seems to be all the rage these days
I believe you could make a whole series on trade candidates from former draft picks you have these 2 and Joejuan Williams the 2 TE’s last yr and so many more but the sad thing is none of them have any real value except maybe Michel so hopefully they can package a few and get a disgruntled player from some team
While I agree with your larger point, I think you are jumping the gun on last years picks. First, the TE’s had no rookie or mini camp, and then they got zero pre-season games. Bill likes to red shirt 3rd-7th rounders so,…. And,…., who was throwing passes to them?
JoJuan has played less bc of a very deep DB depth chart (they have been stacked). The book is still open on him. He was drafted to cover the TE’s so we shall see.
Bellichick collects a high volume of picks so he has his fair share of misses (to your point), but he has tons of hits 2nd-7th rounds. He just sucks at drafting WR’s IMHO.
You do realize if bill had any faith that those TE would amount to anything he wouldn’t have signed the 2 top TE’s in free agency 1 yes but not 2 and as of late his drafts have been atrocious and that’s being nice this yrs draft on paper looks great but we’ll see I’m not holding my breath though
They just signed Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to be the top 2 TEs
They also signed Nelson Agholor and have Jakobi Meyers.
Assai and Keene won’t be seeing much playing time unless injuries occur to Henry / Smith
Definitely a possibility with Henry.
Bill didn’t want to trade for Diggs so he can draft players like Harry. No wonder Tom bounced.
Ridiculous that they draft N’Keal Harry. What a mistake
Passing on Lamar Jackson to take Michel wasn’t a great decision either. BB waited too long to get a successor to Brady.
It’s easy to say that now but on draft most people loved the pick except for analyst and everyone else who doesn’t kiss Bill’s azz I wish I could say this was his worst pick but sadly there’s way too many to pick one out of the 1st-2nd rounders he’s picked
I know it’s a long shot but Harry with his size and raw skill set should try go to a team with a proven bet that’ll help him that has a similar size/skill set.
Not that they need him but AJ Green would be a good mentor type guy.
Winnovich is not getting traded.
IMO Harry should’ve been given more looks but he ran one wrong route and Tom got picked so, as Tom always did with rookies, he wrote him off. The kid has talent. There was one play during his rookie year he fought and five for a touchdown that got called back. That showed a lot to me but he never got many looks
Harry couldn’t catch a cold.
Michel makes a little sense for the Falcons. They pretty much only have Mike Davis on the roster. Davis has never carried a full load and catches the ball well out of the backfield.