While the Chiefs reside as the clear favorites in the AFC, multiple successful rebuilds have strengthened the conference and created considerable depth going into the 2021 season. In the NFC, depth is harder to find.
The Buccaneers operated aggressively this offseason, bringing back every starter and most of their top off-the-bench contributors to chase another championship, and late-June betting odds reflect this. Tampa Bay resides as the clear NFC favorite, per Las Vegas. The team did not enter 2020 on this pedestal, but the NFC landscape looks less imposing a year later.
The Saints exited the 2020 season in a new tier of salary cap hell, and although GM Mickey Loomis navigated it, their 2021 team may take a step back. Oddsmakers certainly believe this will be the case in the franchise’s first post-Drew Brees season. New Orleans has been the NFC’s most consistent team over the past four years, going 49-15 in that span, but its future Hall of Fame quarterback retired. Tampa Bay’s path back to the Super Bowl also may not involve another Canton-bound passer — Aaron Rodgers — which further muddles the equation.
January’s Matthew Stafford trade seems a good place to start. The Rams dealing two first-round picks and change for the longtime Lions passer provides Sean McVay with a quarterback upgrade, and the team perpetually unconcerned with first-round selections is operating like an all-in contender. Los Angeles, which Bovada gives the NFC’s second-best odds to advance to Super Bowl LVI, also re-signed top edge rusher Leonard Floyd. While the Rams’ penchant for big swings and big extensions led more key role players out of town in free agency, with safety John Johnson and defensive lineman Michael Brockers exiting, they return four starters from Pro Football Focus’ No. 3-ranked offensive line.
But the NFC West may be the NFL’s toughest division. No rebuilds are taking place here, separating it from most of the league’s divisions, and the 49ers rank alongside the Rams — per Bovada — in Super Bowl odds. San Francisco endured vicious injury fortune last season but has Super Bowl LIV starters — Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel — due back from injury. And the team kept Trent Williams — on an O-line-record contract. Kyle Shanahan‘s squad also moved the needle at quarterback, bringing in Trey Lance at a historic cost. Lance’s readiness may determine the 49ers’ outlook. Although Jimmy Garoppolo was effective (12th in QBR) when fully healthy in 2019, he missed 23 games over the past three seasons.
The Seahawks diffused Russell Wilson trade rumblings and added veteran guard Gabe Jackson. Their defense will be without Jarran Reed and probably K.J. Wright next season, however. Seattle has not advanced to an NFC championship game since Wilson’s rookie-contract years but still has the division’s most accomplished quarterback. The Cardinals brought in multiple impact starters, in future Hall of Famer J.J. Watt and Pro Bowl center Rodney Hudson, in an effort to capitalize on Kyler Murray‘s rookie-deal window. But Murray struggled down the stretch last season, and Arizona will have two new cornerback regulars.
Rodgers’ commitment to being done in Green Bay represents the NFC’s biggest domino. The reigning MVP has not budged, and this standoff is expected to drag on to training camp. The Packers trading Rodgers, or the superstar passer being out of the picture while the team retains his rights, will probably take them off the board as a Super Bowl threat. Given the Packers’ 26-6 performance over the past two seasons, Rodgers’ status looms large in this year’s Super Bowl equation.
What sleeper teams realistically factor in here? The Cowboys extended Dak Prescott and hired a new defensive coordinator (Dan Quinn), but they have won one playoff game during their now-wealthy starter’s tenure and allowed a franchise-record 473 points in 2020. Washington boasts one of the league’s best defenses but opted against trading up for a quarterback in Round 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick will turn 39 this year and has never made a playoff start. The Bears did trade up for a passer, and the Vikings retooled their defense. The Giants made multiple splashy receiver additions but have big questions up front. Do any of these teams qualify as legit Bucs obstacles?
Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your NFC assessments in the comments section.
Why are the rams so high? Traded a medicore qb for a qb with no playoff wins. I know the lions are a bad franchise but every great qb drags a team through the playoffs at some point for at least one or two wins.
Stafford is really good and underrated. He’s going to have a big year with the Rams
Stafford cant possibly be underrated for all the play he gets despite having accomplished very little in his career.
I don’t think Stafford is mediocre or underrated. He’s pretty well ranked most of the time. He’s not top-tier but definitely second-tier. He couldn’t possibly lose his offense’s confidence any worse than Goff did.
Stafford is really good and underrated….Says a probable Rams fan!
Beyond causal take. Stafford is an excellent QB that made the Lions look way better than they are. If you put Tom Brady on that team he doesn’t last 2 years without begging to be traded. Calling Staff mediocre is laughable.
Imagine referring to Matthew Stafford as a “mediocre QB”
My vote is for the Bucs themselves.
The cowboys
The Giants!!!!
arizona!
I second, I threw in on winning the nfc west after they went toe to toe with the Bills. they disappointed after but I think they are a legit team and could surprise a little more this year.
all of these teams are very mortal. I voted other, but I guess A-Rod realistically isnt going anywhere so probably GB. ‘Zona would by my second pick. rest of that division is overrated or too injury-prone.
‘Zona will finish in last place in NFCW!
Rams by far with the uncertainty of Green Bay’s QB situation.
HAIL to the Red_____,
FIGHT for old DC…
Given the dearth of divisional competition, they have a chance.
Not a good chance, but a chance.
The fact that the 49ers are last in voting in this poll is laughable ans just shows people use their favoritism for their teams rather than actually who’s the better team. 49ers if healthy are the team to beat in the NFC, they still had a top 5 defense and won 6 games with 2/3 of their team hurt and plying with practice squad guys. That should speak volumes. There is no way the team has that kind of bad luck again, they improved their O Like which was the area most needed of improvement and added depth to other areas this offseason also adding a QB who if gets to play could easily be rookie of the year with the talent he has around and Shanahan calling plays for him. Defense is mostly all returning. The West is the toughest division in the league and they are the best team in that division, most well rounded team and not really lacking anywhere besides depth at WR but if they stay healthy that won’t matter
you are correct sir on every point you made. This poll shows people are fickle and just look at standings rather then finding out what really happened.
Green Bay was absolutely dominated by this 49er team twice in 2019. No reason to think any different here with the Niners healthy again.
Rams haven’t beat the Niners since 2018. Yes, a beat up destroyed 49ers beat the Rams in the second meeting last year with Nick Mullins at QB. Jimmy G had a great 1st game last year against the Rams defense throwing for 270 and 3 TD.
A team that regressed as much as the 49ers did last season is clearly not a title contender. As far as head to head matchups go they have only won 4 of the past 14 against the Cardinals so that gives you an idea of why they are not highly regarded.
Since you brought up Arizona, they did split last year and when they did lose, they didn’t have Aiyuk or Samuel for that game and Kittle was hurt before halftime. I think those three guys could have mustered up a TD or a couple FG attempts if they were all there for a full game.
But overall again, why look at the big picture? Just look at the standings and assume its regression. 2/3 of the starters on IR? We don’t need those silly little facts thrown into conversation.
As being regarded, Vegas has them right with the Rams to win the division so that not being highly regarded comment is false information.
Well they’re not last, they’re fourth in the NFC by a close margin wich is actually quite a high rating for a team, injured or not, that mustered only 6 wins last year. Or do you say that Jimmy G, Nick Bosa and Kittle have a combined WAR of 7? Seems optimistic to me.
Well since 5 RB’s got a start due to injuries, the two top WR’s rarely played together, the defensive back field was beat up and Dee Ford also didn’t play at all are all big factors. It wasn’t just three guys that were hurt. It was 2/3 of the starters and just about every RB they had. The fact they won 6 games shows how well that team was coached and prepared.
Seahawks started 4 rbs, lost 4 DEs + Bruce Irving to injured reserve, lost 23 starts from starters in the defensive backfield, and only had Carlos Dunlap for eight games. 12-4. Just sayin.
49ers had their entire starting offense on the field together for 6 quarters all season. Defense was less then that. Just sayin.
Lets see how well the Seahawks do without Wilson for 10 games, Lockett can miss 4 or 5, Metcalf can miss 8 and not have your all-pro tight end for half the season. Just sayin. Seahawks injuries still aren’t close to having 2/3 of your starting roster missing large amount of time.
True that Seahawks were spared in positions where 9ers were hit hard, but that’s not the point. You’re arguing that the 9ers should be the top contender in the NFC, but there’s nothing that points to that now. They might prove to be, but it’s a reach.
Negative. I never said the top contender. The original post said it was laughable they were last at that time of voting and I agreed. They are quite capable(and way more then the Packers) to be right there at the end. If the Seahawks and Rams take them as lightly as you guys are, it will just make it that much easier for them to get a shot at the NFC Championship.
Not last. Fourth. It’s going to be a fun season. Really competitive, like sports should be.
Last at that time of voting. please re-read my comment.
Last of four teams in the list. Fourth. Last I checked there was 16 teams in the NFC
I say the Bears. I know we are starting the year with Andy Dalton, but if he gets in trouble I think Justin Fields will do great. We did beef up our O line which should help a little bit. Yes, our defense did take a hit but I do believe that the Defense will be just as good this year and some players may step up. Looking at the other teams in our division, especially if A-Rod sits out or gets traded, I think we have a great chance.
Cowboys
Green Bay ain’t gonna be doing much without Rogers…
I know you’re all going to think I’m loco, but I really don’t think the Saints are going to drop off all that much from last year. I fully believe Winston will have a very surprising year. He at least can throw the ball down the field. Watching Brees do little dump passes for the last three years was getting old.
He can throw it down the field, but about two times a game it’s caught by the other team.
Vikings D is gonna be back like a beast!!!!
The Eagles are the sleeper pick. New coaching staff, Hurts entering his sophomore season with a clearly defined role, a healthy elite offensive line, and a dynamic new receiver. It won’t take much to win the East and they can make a splash in the playoffs.
New Orleans
Quietly, it’s the NY Giants. Surprising most, they will win a weak NFC East division title in fairly easy fashion and carry over that success to the playoffs.
Cowboys. Going to be a great week 1 game.