In 2018, three first-place teams from the previous season did not earn postseason berths. Those clubs — the Steelers, Jaguars, and Vikings — each missed the playoffs for different reasons. Injuries, poor luck, off-field issues, and plain old regression to the mean all contributed in certain instances, and 2019 doesn’t figure to be any different for the 2018 first-place teams.
We’ve already asked PFR readers which 2018 last place team is likeliest to make the postseason in 2019 (the Jaguars were the top choice). Today, we’ll flip that question: which 2018 first place club is going to miss the playoffs during the upcoming campaign?
Let’s take an overview of the teams:
New England Patriots
You don’t need me to tell you the Patriots have dominated the AFC East for the better part of two decades. They’ve won 10 consecutive division titles, and have finished first in 16 of the last 18 campaigns. New England is still considered the favorites to win the 2020 Super Bowl, despite losing players like Rob Gronkowski, Trey Flowers, Trent Brown, and Malcom Brown during the offseason. While the Jets and Bills have each improved and built around young quarterbacks, the AFC East is still unquestionably the Patriots’ to lose.
Baltimore Ravens
After turning over their offense to rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson against the Bengals in Week 11, the Ravens managed to rebound from a 4-5 start to win six of their final seven games, edging out the Steelers for the AFC North crown in the process. Pittsburgh should still contend in 2019 despite trading Antonio Brown and allowing Le’Veon Bell to walk in free agency, but Baltimore’s real competition is the Browns, who are now favored to win the division after adding Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson, and others over the past several months.
Houston Texans
The Texans have quietly won the AFC South in three of the past four seasons under head coach Bill O’Brien, but their path will be extremely difficult next season. The Colts are building for long-term success and are the division favorites in 2019, while the Jaguars and Titans could also be in the running. Wide receiver Will Fuller‘s return from a torn ACL should help quarterback Deshaun Watson, but if the third-year signal-caller can’t stay upright behind what is still a sub-par offensive line, Houston may not have a chance.
Kansas City Chiefs
After nearly advancing to the Super Bowl a season ago, the Chiefs enter the 2019 season with change in the air. Not only did Kansas City make two separate franchise edge defender trades (shipping Dee Ford to the 49ers while acquiring Frank Clark from the Seahawks), it also added key defensive players like Tyrann Mathieu, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Alex Okafor. The Chiefs’ biggest outstanding question, of course, revolves around wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is still being investigated after being accused of child abuse. At present, it’s unclear if Hill will be suspended or even be on Kansas City’s roster once the regular gets underway.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas won seven of its final eight games down the stretch after acquiring wideout Amari Cooper from the Raiders, taking the division from the Eagles in the process. As has become the norm, the Cowboys didn’t do much during the offseason. Jerry Jones & Co. re-signed defensive end Demarcus Lawrence, brought tight end Jason Witten out of retirement, and added slot receiver Randall Cobb, but otherwise kept his club intact. Given that the Giants and Redskins don’t look like serious contenders, Dallas will likely battle Philadelphia for the NFC East crown again.
Chicago Bears
The Bears seem to be the current pick for regression in 2019, and it’s not difficult to see why. Chicago was buoyed by its league-best defense last season, and defensive success is historically less stable and less predictive than production on offense. Not only did the Bears lose key defenders like Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan, but star defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is also gone. Chicago will likely need to rely on improvement from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky if it wants to hold off the Packers and Vikings next year.
New Orleans Saints
After posting three consecutive 7-9 seasons from 2014-16, the Saints have manged 24 regular season victories and two NFC South titles over the last two years. New Orleans added two new weapons — tight end Jared Cook and running back Latavius Murray — for Drew Brees, and found both a short-term (Nick Easton) and long-term (Erik McCoy) replacement for recently-retired center Max Unger. On paper, the Saints still look like an incredibly strong team, but their division is one of the toughest in the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams
Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, the Rams added two free agent defenders in edge rusher Clay Matthews and safety Eric Weddle, but also lost key contributors like Ndamukong Suh, Rodger Saffold, and Lamarcus Joyner. Additionally, Todd Gurley‘s knee condition isn’t likely to allow him to be a bell-cow in 2019, meaning more responsibility will be placed on Jared Goff. Luckily for Los Angeles, none of the other clubs in the NFC West appear ready to dethrone the Rams just yet.
So, what do you think? Which 2018 first place team is likeliest to miss the playoffs in 2019? Vote below! (Link for app users).
I would expect 3 or 4 teams not to repeat. The NFC East would seem to be the most unstable division so everyone but the Giants could have a shot there. Dallas prevailed last season but there will likely be a manned landing on Mars before Jason Garrett has another run of 7 wins in 8 weeks.
I don’t see the Redskins standing a chance. It’s still a two-horse race.
As a cowboys fan, the biggest worry I see is philly. Being a different team in areas is hard to game plan for. Last year there was no running game so just stay back and cover.
Now with Howard and sanders you got to cover both
The Redskins had the best turnover ratio (+7) in the division last season so if they can repeat that while improving their time of possession they can be in the hunt.
Nope, two way race. The Giants are a mess and the ‘Skins lost all hope when Alex Smith went down.
The Ravens are just not going to win the AFC North again. Teams now have a “book” on that gimmicky Lamar Jackson offense, and the Ravens really haven’t done a whole lot to improve this offseason. The Browns look a lot better, and the reports of the Steelers’ demise could be very, very premature.
Yeah the Chargers really exposed him. All it took was 1 look in person and the next game it was embarrassing. And now they have had 10 months to study film
Not the same offensive coordinator so it’s not the same offense, they drafted Brown, Boykin and Hill in addition to adding Mark Ingram. Added Earl Thomas who is better than Weddle on defense. They have attacked losing Suggs by signing a bunch of bodies that can rush the passer. Didn’t do much to improve? You should probably do some research before making claims like they are done. Especially while spouting out that Pittsburgh is probably fine.
the Ravens success last year was a fluke. they might still make the playoffs, but i have my doubts.
Rather bizarre that in 2017 the Ravens had the best turnover ratio (+17) and missed the playoffs but won the division last season with a -3 ratio. The difference maker last season was time of possession. 7 of the top 8 teams in that category reached the playoffs last season with Baltimore leading the way.
Success was a fluke? And no one else’s was? That’s absolutely stupid. They threw in their rookie who wouldn’t have played all year if not for a Flacco injury. And now he has an entire offseason with the intent to start. The Chiefs success was just as flukey if you’re honest. 31st in defense and made the playoffs. Sounds just as easy for them to regress.
Chiefs have wisely gutted that defense but now have the youngest roster in the league. This presents them with a large learning curve that probably won’t allow them to stay ahead of the Chargers.
Da Bears will repeat winning the Central
With Jauron coaching and Miller at QB they have to be favored….lol.
I’d say the Texans; their roster other than their superstars really isn’t too impressive, and if any of them misses a lot of time (i.e. the O-line lets Watson get killed every week), they’re toast.
Their division doesn’t help either; the Colts are a really good team, the Titans could win 8-10 games, and the Jaguars at least have the talent to contend too.