Poll: Most Important Game Of Week 13?

We’re just five weeks away from the 2018 NFL postseason, and Week 10 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?

For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Rams, Patriots, Saints, and Chiefs are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 1% playoff leverage). The Lions, Buccaneers, Giants, 49ers, Cardinals, Bills, Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.

But for other clubs, Week 10 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:

• Washington Redskins (38%) at Philadelphia Eagles (16%) = 54%
• Baltimore Ravens (32%) at Atlanta Falcons (4%) = 36%
• Indianapolis Colts (30%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1%) = 31%
• San Francisco 49ers (0%) at Seattle Seahawks (31%) = 31%
• Minnesota Vikings (26%) at New England Patriots (1%) = 27%
• Carolina Panthers (24%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1%) = 25%
• Denver Broncos (15%) at Cincinnati Bengals (5%) = 20%
• Los Angeles Chargers (7%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7%) = 14%

Week 13 is a strange week in terms of playoff leverage, as nearly every matchup with a combined leverage of at least 20% is extremely one-sided. In other words, a lot of the games this week are critical for one team involved, and nearly irrelevant for the other club. In fact, there are only three contests in which both teams face leverage of at least five percent: Redskins/Eagles, Broncos/Bengals, and Chargers/Steelers. In the latter case, neither Los Angeles nor Pittsburgh is in danger of missing the postseason, but their showdown could be important for playoff seeding.

It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Cowboys — who face a 23% PPL — lose to the Saints on Thursday, they’ll still have a greater than 55% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Eagles, while facing a similar PPL to the Cowboys (24%), will have roughly a one-in-ten chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Buccaneers. If Philadelphia wins, that number rises to about 35%.

So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Redskins/Eagles the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Broncos/Bengals mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section! (Link for app users).