Entering a crucial Week 8 game in Kansas City in which the Chiefs are 10-point favorites, the Broncos may be on the verge of a tough decision.
A loss to the Chiefs would drop them to 3-5 and behind in a pursuit of their first playoff berth since winning Super Bowl 50. What makes Denver’s case interesting is the number of veterans from that championship season the team still has in key roles who are attractive trade chips.
Beyond Von Miller, who should be considered untouchable, the Broncos’ defense relies on versatile All-Pro cornerback Chris Harris and longtime starters Derek Wolfe and Brandon Marshall. Denver’s starting wide receivers — Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders — are in their fifth season together. Bradley Roby and Shane Ray are both in contract years. Each has played key roles for the Broncos for years, Roby in particular.
Even if the Broncos play out the season trying to creep back into the playoff picture, how many of these players will be on the 2019 team? Denver does rank a surprising fifth in DVOA and has a softer second-half schedule. But even after a 45-10 win over the Cardinals, the Broncos are just 2-9 on the road during Vance Joseph‘s tenure. This makes a late-season run appear difficult.
Thomas is probably the most interesting case. He may be the second-best wideout in Broncos history, behind Rod Smith, and remains a useful contributor. But Sanders (603 receiving yards) is on pace for his best season since his Peyton Manning-aided 2014 slate, sliding Thomas (372 yards) into the No. 2 role Sanders played for years. Thomas also has a $17.5MM 2019 cap number, much higher than Sanders’ $12.9MM figure. This, and emerging second-rounder Courtland Sutton, point to Thomas almost certainly not being part of the 2019 Broncos.
But how much could Denver get for its high-priced, soon-to-be 31-year-old wideout? Unlike a Roby, Ray or Shaquil Barrett free agency departure, the Broncos couldn’t land a compensatory pick for Thomas. Trading him before Tuesday’s 3pm CT deadline would make sense if the Broncos don’t believe they can realistically compete this season.
On the other hand, Denver’s struggled for years to find a viable wideout behind Thomas and Sanders. Sutton (17.6 yards per catch) has provided that. Trading Thomas would weaken an offense that already doesn’t have much at tight end and depends on a lower-tier starting quarterback. Denver could also shop Thomas in the offseason, though the compensation likely would be minimal.
Teams are more interested in Sanders, but the 31-year-old wideout is a better bet to be on the 2019 team in the final season of a three-year, $33MM deal. Denver appears open to dealing Thomas.
Suitors are also inquiring about Harris, but that would gut a Broncos defense that doesn’t have the cornerback depth it possessed for years. Pro Football Focus has Harris again among its top-10 corners, and he has another season remaining on an affordable, five-year, $42.5MM deal. It’s possible Harris could join Miller as a defensive cornerstone into the 2020s, with Roby’s status beyond 2018 uncertain. That would probably be more valuable to the Broncos than the mid- or late-round draft capital they’d acquire in exchange for the 29-year-old corner.
A fifth-year starter, Marshall may be in his final games as a Bronco. Fourth-round rookie Josey Jewell could take over as a starter next season at a rate obviously much cheaper than Marshall’s $9MM 2019 cap number. Playing on a $8.5MM fifth-year option, Roby’s drawn interest, too. No substantial extension talks are known to have taken place. Ray’s high ankle sprain likely will keep him in Denver throughout his contract year.
With two games against the Chargers, and matchups against the Steelers and Bengals, still on the Broncos’ docket, should they be ready to deal non-essential cogs if they lose to the Chiefs? Or, does Denver’s DVOA position indicate a late-season turnaround is possible, making an all-hands-on-deck approach worthwhile?
Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
They’re delusional if they don’t sell.
Yes. Yes. Yes.
– Daniel Bryan
Day late and a dollar short. The Broncos should have gone into sell mode the moment Wade Phillips decided to move on to the Rams.
If they’re going to rebuild, trading Von would be best. He’d net better picks or young players. 4th & 5th round picks typically are reserves.
As an outside observer who’s not a Broncos fan, I think they need to trade everyone who’s close to the end of their contracts, get a little extra draft capital, and try to hit on some young contributors for the future.
That said, it’s all meaningless if they still can’t find a quarterback. And Elway shouldn’t be the one trusted to lead a rebuild.