Poll: Most Important Game Of Week 8?

We’re nearly at the halfway mark of the 2018 season, and Week 8 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?

For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Rams and Chiefs are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 5% playoff leverage). The Jets, Browns, Bills, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, and 49ers will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.

But for other clubs, Week 8 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:

• Seattle Seahawks (27%) at Detroit Lions (15%) = 42%
• Miami Dolphins (18%) at Houston Texans (20%) = 38%
• Baltimore Ravens (16%) at Carolina Panthers (21%) = 37%
• New Orleans Saints (14%) at Minnesota Vikings (22%) = 36%
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12%) at Cincinnati Bengals (18%) = 30%
• Philadelphia Eagles (17%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11%) = 28%

Other Week 10 contests aren’t included here for various reasons. The Steelers have high postseason probability leverage (24%) against the Browns, but the contest is essentially meaningless on Cleveland’s end, as the Browns have little chance of earning a playoff berth. The Rams/Packers game, meanwhile, figures to be an exciting contest, but nearly all the leverage is with Green Bay (24%).

It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Ravens — who face a 16% PPL — lose to the Panthers on Sunday, they’ll still have a greater than 65% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Dolphins, while facing a similar PPL to the Ravens (18%), will have roughly a one-in-ten chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Texans. If Miami wins, that number rises to about 30%.

So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Seahawks/Lions the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Saints/Vikings mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section!