Top 3 Offseason Needs: Green Bay Packers

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll begin this year’s series with the Green Bay Packers, who lost quarterback Aaron Rodgers in Week 6 and subsequently limped to a 7-9 record.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

• Geronimo Allison, WR (ERFA)
• Ahmad Brooks, LB
• Donatello Brown, CB (ERFA)
• Morgan Burnett, S
• Joe Callahan, QB (ERFA)
• Quinton Dial, DL
• Jahri Evans, G
• Brett Goode, LS
• Demetri Goodson, CB
• Davon House, CB
• Jeff Janis, WR
• Ulrick John, T
• Joe Kerridge, FB (ERFA)
• Justin McCray, G (ERFA)
• Adam Pankey, G (ERFA)
• Lucas Patrick, C (ERFA)
• Taybor Pepper, LS (ERFA)
• Richard Rodgers, TE
• Jacob Schum, P (RFA)
• Joe Thomas, LB (RFA)
• Herb Waters, WR (ERFA)
• Jermaine Whitehead, S (ERFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

1. Aaron Rodgers, QB: $20,900,000
2. Randall Cobb, WR: $12,750,000
3. Jordy Nelson, WR: $12,550,000
4. Clay Matthews, LB: $11,400,000
5. David Bakhtiari, T: $11,200,000
6. Nick Perry, LB: $10,750,000
7. Davante Adams, WR: $10,537,500
8. Mike Daniels, DE: $9,900,000
9. Bryan Bulaga, T: $8,350,000
10. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S: $5,957,000

Other:

• Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $21,979,291
• 14th pick in draft
• Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for CB Damarious Randall

Three Needs:

1) Add an explosive wide receiver: While nearly every statistical decline by the Packers’ 2017 offense can be at least somewhat attributed to the loss of Aaron Rodgers (and the related poor play of backup quarterback Brett Hundley), there is a way to strip out the performance of Green Bay’s signal-caller and assess the play-making ability and speed of the club’s offensive weapons. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats use on-field location data to track player acceleration, and the Packers have not fared well over the past two seasons. According to researcher Anthony Staggs, Green Bay’s wide receivers tied for last among the 32 NFL clubs with an average speed of 12.81 mph as ball carriers since 2016. Fleet-footed the Packers are not.

Green Bay’s wide receiver room could look a lot different in 2018, both due to the recent performance of the team’s pass-catchers and financial realities. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson are the 17th- and 18th-highest-paid wideouts in the league, and it’s not clear that either is worth his current salary. Cobb hasn’t topped 650 yards receiving since 2015, while Nelson looked his age (32) last season. The Packers could save nearly $9.5MM by releasing Cobb and more tan $10MM by cutting Nelson this offseason, and while both are candidates to be let go, I wonder if Cobb will be saved by his relative youth (he’s still only 27 years old).

Let’s assume the Packers will need to add at least one outside receiver to play alongside Davante Adams, who recently inked a four-year, $58MM extension. The first place to look will be the free agent market, and two options who could be had for relatively cheap are the Colts’ Donte Moncrief and the Cardinals’ John Brown. Marcus Mosher of Bleacher Report’s NFL1000 series recently discussed both options through a series of GIFS (Moncrief: No. 1, No. 2; Brown: No. 1, No. 2, No. 3), noting Moncrief’s “insane amount of unlocked talent” and Brown’s “easy speed” and ball-tracking ability. Neither has been effective since the 2015 campaign, meaning Green Bay should be able to land either on a one- or two-year deal.

Other receivers that could make sense for the Packers include Paul Richardson and Jaron Brown, who managed the most 20+ yard catches among free agent wideouts; Mike Wallace, who’s made a career out of handling deep balls; and Brice Butler, who boasts an intriguing size/speed combination and is looking for a starting job. Given the presence of Adams, and the fact that at least one of Cobb or Nelson will likely be retained, Green Bay doesn’t need to go searching for a No. 1 wide receiver, and can instead target marginal upgrades with specific skills.

Having said that, the Colts T.Y. Hilton would look good in green and gold and would immediately give the Packers one of the best wide receiving corps in the league. Hilton, of course, isn’t a free agent, but his name did pop up in trade rumors last October. While Indianapolis reportedly holds Hilton in “high regard,” it’s possible he could still be available for the right price, especially if the Colts decide to undergo something of a mini-rebuild. Hilton, 28, is under contract for three more seasons with base salaries between $11MM and $14.5MM. Other wideouts who could be acquired via trade (or following a release), such as Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, aren’t fits for Green Bay, but Michael Crabtree could be on new general manager Brian Gutekunst‘s radar if he’s cut by the Raiders.

The Packers could also use the draft to secure another wideout, but they likely won’t invest a first-round pick on the position. While other receivers could sneak into the first round, Alabama’s Calvin Ridley is the only lock to be selected on Day 1. Green Bay, for what it’s worth, hasn’t used a first-round pick on a pass-catcher since 2002 when they took Javon Walker out of Florida State. SMU’s Courtland Sutton, whom Matt Miller of Bleacher Report says has the best potential of any 2018 receiver, could be on the table for the Packers in Round 2, while D.J. Chark (LSU), Deontay Burnett (USC), and Deon Cain (Clemson) are among the speedy options who may be available in the middle rounds.

2) Fix the pass defense: Green Bay’s secondary was among the NFL’s worst in 2017, as the unit ranked 26th in DVOA (including a dead last finish against opposing No. 1 wide receivers), 30th in yards per attempt allowed, and 31st in passer rating allowed. All of the Packers’ primary cornerbacks, including Damarious Randall, Davon House, Josh Hawkins, and Kevin King, finished in the bottom quartile of Pro Football Focus‘ CB rankings. While changes could come organically — much of the Packers’ secondary is still young aside from House, and new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine should be an improvement over Dom Capers — Green Bay should look into adding another corner this spring.

During his stints as a defensive coordinator and a head coach, Pettine has typically run a 3-4 scheme that features a good amount of blitzing and aggressive man coverage in the back end. While no team generally employs man coverage on even 50% of its plays, and the Packers will need to work on zone coverage in order to be effective, it’s fair to guess that Green Bay will target corners capable of playing press-man if it dips into the free agent market.

A number of free agents (or potential free agents, hinging on a possible release) could be of interest to the Packers based solely on Pettine’s coaching history. Tramon Williams, for example, is both a former Packers and spent one year with Pettine in Cleveland. He’ll be 35 years old when the 2018 season gets underway, so while he’s coming off an excellent rebound campaign, Williams probably isn’t what Green Bay is looking for. However, Nickell Robey-Coleman, Buster Skrine, Pierre Desir, and even Leodis McKelvin could garner a look by the Packers given their working relationship with Pettine.

Green Bay doesn’t figure to spend at the top of the cornerback market to sign a Trumaine Johnson or Malcolm Butler, but the club could look at the second tier of free agent defensive backs. Morris Claiborne stands out as a possible fit, as he’s still only 28 years old and — if 2017 is any indication — may reach a relatively limited market (the Jets signed him for one year and $5MM last year). It also wouldn’t be surprising if the Packers target David Amerson, who was released by the Raiders earlier this week. Amerson, who has thrived in man coverage, can be signed immediately, will take a meeting with the division-rival Bears on Wednesday.

At pick No. 14, the Packers should have their choice of cornerbacks aside from Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick, who figures to be selected within the top-10 picks. Lance Zierlein and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com both project Green Bay to take a cornerback in their first mock drafts, with Zierlein sending the Packers Josh Jackson (Iowa) and Jeremiah giving Green Bay UCF’s Mike Hughes. Other cornerbacks who could conceivably be available on either Day 1 or 2 include Denzel Ward (Ohio State), Jaire Alexander (Louisville), Isaiah Oliver (Colorado), and Carlton Davis (Auburn).

3) Bolster the right side of the offensive line: While the Packers’ run-blocking was actually decent in 2017, the club’s pass-blocking prowess was not: Green Bay ranked 26th in pressure rate allowed and 28th in adjusted sack rate allowed, and could be poised to lose offensive linemen this offseason.

While the Packers’ are set at left tackle, left guard, and center, right guard and right tackle may be problems going forward. Veteran right guard Jahri Evans is a free agent and will be 35 years old when the 2018 campaign gets underway. While he offered average play last season (he was the No. 30 guard among 77 qualifiers, per PFF), Evans could fall off a cliff at any time given his age. Bringing him back on another cheap, one-year pact wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, but Green Bay could also look to upgrade.

The Packers haven’t historically been amenable to paying for guards (or offensive lineman in general), but the club now has a new general manager and could express a willingness to spend. That doesn’t mean Green Bay is going to sign Andrew Norwell or Justin Pugh, but it could make a serious investment at guard rather than inking another aging veteran like Evans or relying on internal options. I’d expect the Packers to first target the Colts’ Jack Mewhort, who has missed 17 of 32 games over the past two seasons but been effective when on the field. His injury history could make him a bit more affordable, and he worked under new Green Bay offensive coordinator Joe Philbin in Indianapolis during the past two years.

At right tackle, Bryan Bulaga inked a five-year, ~$34MM deal just three years ago, but could already be in danger of being released. That’s not due to his talent level, as he’s been a positive at right tackle during his seven-year career in Green Bay. However, Bulaga is now coming off a torn ACL that he suffered in November, meaning he may not be available for the start of the 2018 season. The Packers could save $4.7MM by cutting Bulaga in the near future, and $6.3MM by designating him a post-June 1 release.

If the Packers do part ways with Bulaga, they’ll almost certainly have to find a new right tackle via the draft, as the free agent tackle market is almost completely barren (which could hypothetically be a reason to keep Bulaga in the fold). Connor Williams (Texas) is projected as one of the draft’s top tackles, but like Bulaga, he’s struggled with injuries as of late. Oklahoma’s Orlando Brown and Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey could also go in Round 1, while Tyrell Crosby (Oregon) and Brian O’Neill (Pittsburgh) are among the options that could be available on Day 2, per Dane Brugler and Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com.