In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Carolina Panthers, who rebounded from a down 2016 to finish 11-5, good for second in the NFC South.
Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)
Pending Free Agents:
- Derek Anderson, QB
- Brenton Bersin, WR
- Damiere Byrd, WR (ERFA)
- Jairus Byrd, S
- Kaelin Clay, WR (RFA)
- Ed Dickson, TE
- Dan France, T (ERFA)
- Andrew Gachkar, LB
- Graham Gano, K
- Ladarius Gunter, CB (RFA)
- Drew Iddings, DT (ERFA)
- Charles Johnson, WR
- Tyler Larsen, C (ERFA)
- Star Lotulelei, DT
- Chris Manhertz, TE (ERFA)
- Andrew Norwell, G
- Michael Palardy, P (ERFA)
- Julius Peppers, DE
- Amini Silatolu, G
- Scott Simonson, TE (RFA)
- Greg Van Roten, G (RFA)
- Teddy Williams, CB
- David Yankey, G (RFA)
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Cam Newton, QB: $21,500,000
- Kawann Short, DT: $17,000,000
- Luke Kuechly, LB: $13,100,059
- Ryan Kalil, C: $10,279,000
- Greg Olsen, TE: $9,750,000
- Mario Addison, DE: $8,916,666
- Trai Turner, G: $7,703,000
- Matt Kalil, T: $6,900,000
- Jonathan Stewart, RB: $5,250,000
- Kurt Coleman, S: $5,250,000
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $24,465,591
- 24th pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for LB Shaq Thompson
Three Needs:
1) Add a new weapon for Cam Newton: When the Panthers lost to the Saints in the Wild Card round earlier this month, their wide receiver depth chart was as follows: Devin Funchess, Brenton Bersin, Kaelin Clay, Russell Shepard, Mose Frazier. Sure, Carolina will see the return of Damiere Byrd and Curtis Samuel — each of whom ended the year on injured reserve — in 2018, but it’s readily apparent that the Panthers lack a true No. 1 threat at wideout.
Jarvis Landry and Allen Robinson are probably the top two pending free agent receivers, but Landry will be pricey and — as a slot receiver — isn’t the type of addition the Panthers currently need. Robinson will be expensive, too, even though he’s coming off a torn ACL. Carolina doesn’t have a ton of money to throw around this offseason, thanks in part to free agent deals handed out by former general manager Dave Gettleman and extensions worked out by “interim” GM Marty Hurney. Therefore, the Panthers probably need to go bargain-hunting as they search for a specific pass-catcher to complement Funchess.
Signing a speed receiver who can handle deep passes should be a clear focal point for Carolina over the coming months, especially after the club allowed long-ball threat Ted Ginn Jr. to land with the division-rival Saints a year ago. Veteran Mike Wallace stands out as a player in that mold, as he caught all nine of his deep targets (20+ yards) in 2017 while ranking 12th in deep receiving yardage, according to the 2018 Pro Football Focus Free Agency Guide. Jourdan Rodrigue of the Charlotte Observer recently speculated that Wallace could fit with the Panthers, and he shouldn’t be all that expensive given that he’s now 31 years old. Other candidates to fill a speed niche for Carolina could include Paul Richardson, Taylor Gabriel, Deonte Thompson, or — if the Panthers want to spend — Sammy Watkins, who finished 14th in Football Outsiders‘ DYAR last season.
If Carolina isn’t able to land a deep threat, the club should double down and ink another big-bodied pass-catcher who can fight for contested catches and offer a large target radius for the often erratic Newton. If the Panthers go down this route, they could save a good bit of money because most of these types of wideouts are coming off disappointing seasons. Possible options may include Donte Moncrief, Michael Floyd, Jaron Brown, Kamar Aiken, plus restricted free agents Tyrell Williams and Brandon Coleman, but the best fit might be former quarterback Terrelle Pryor.
There’s no question Pryor was a free agent bust with the Redskins in 2017, as he managed only 20 receptions for 240 yards and one touchdowns. But he’s an excellent athlete at 6″4, 235 pounds, and was extremely productive with the Browns in 2016, topping 1,000 yards receiving in his first season as a wideout. Pryor ranked ninth in contested catch rate during his lone full campaign with Cleveland (via PlayerProfiler.com), while Matt Harmon of Reception Perception noted Pryor’s repeated success against man, zone, and press coverages. For a full perspective on Pryor’s capabilities, check out this October 2016 piece from Cian Fahey of Football Outsiders.
A number of other veteran receivers that could be on interest to the Panthers could be candidates for release this offseason, meaning Carolina may have several more pass-catching candidates available when free agency on March 14. Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, and Michael Crabtree are all on their respective teams’ roster bubbles, and Hurney & Co. should examine each player if and when he is cut. Among those wideouts, Thomas and Bryant would be the best fits for the Panthers under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner.
2) Find a new left guard: Andrew Norwell was quite a find by former general manager Dave Gettleman. Signed as an undrafted free agent out of Cincinnati in 2014, the 26-year-old Norwell has been a full-time starter in each of his four seasons with the Panthers. The 2017 campaign was Norwell’s pièce de résistance, as he earned first-team All-Pro honors while grading as the No. 3 guard in the league, per Pro Football Focus. He’s unquestionably the best lineman on the Panthers’ roster, and one of the best blockers in the NFL.
Trouble is, the rest of league has certainly taken notice of Norwell, and he’s set up to cash in this offseason. Guard contracts have exploded in recent years, and guards such as Kelechi Osemele and Kevin Zeitler are now earning more than $11.5MM annually. Norwell, given his age and production, should match or exceed that threshold, and Carolina may not be able to afford him. The Panthers only have about $24MM to work with this year, and while they can create a bit more cap space by releasing players such as Charles Johnson or Russell Shepard, Hurney won’t be able to spend heavily in free agency.
If the Panthers look to the free agent market to replace Norwell, they won’t find much, as the 2018 class of FA guards falls of after Norwell’s name. While Carolina could patch over its left guard vacancy by inking a veteran such as Brandon Fusco, Matt Slauson, or Alex Boone, the best choice may be Josh Kline, who just wrapped up an outstanding year with the Titans. Kline, whom Tennessee claimed off waivers from the Patriots in 2016, has started 30 games in Nashville over the past two seasons. He’s only 28 years old, but given that excels as a pass-blocker, I’d expect the Titans to make every effort to retain him.
More likely, the Panthers will need to use an early draft pick to acquire a new starting guard. Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com recently sent Ohio State’s Billy Price to Carolina in his first mock draft of the year, while Todd McShay of ESPN.com gave the Panthers Oklahoma offensive tackle Orlando Brown. The Brown pick makes sense on multiple levels — he could theoretically play guard during his rookie season, but he’d also provide long-term insurance for left tackle Matt Kalil, who was dreadful throughout the first year of a five-year, $55MM contract. Another option could be Braden Smith (Auburn), whom Matt Miller of Bleacher Report calls the biggest riser among the 2018 guard class.
3) Fix the secondary: The Panthers have famously refused to pay for defensive backfield defenders, instead opting to invest in their front seven. That strategy was never more apparent than when Carolina rescinded Josh Norman‘s franchise in 2016 before using three draft picks on corners that April. Those selections haven’t worked out, as all of the Panthers’ cornerbacks ranked in the bottom quarter of PFF’s positional rankings a season ago.
Carolina ranked 10th in DVOA against the pass in 2017, but that ranking is a bit misleading. While the Panthers were effective against opposing tight ends and running backs, they struggled against wideouts: the club ranked 19th against No. 1 wide receivers, No. 2 wide receivers, and slot men. Moreover, Carolina surrendered 13.1 receptions per game (second-most in the league) and 168.9 yards per game (fourth-most) to receivers. The solution for the Panthers, then, is to find more talented cornerbacks.
The Panthers haven’t used a first-round pick on a corner since 2004, when they selected Ohio State’s Chris Gamble with the 28th overall pick. A Buckeye could be in the cards for Carolina in 2018, as well, as Josh Norris of Rotoworld recently mocked OSU’s Denzel Ward to the Panthers. As Norris notes, Carolina previously used stringent physical measurements (namely, arm length) when evaluating cornerbacks under Gettleman, but those rules may no longer apply with Hurney in charge.
Ward is limited in the stature department (he stands 5′”10, 190 pounds), but Luke Easterling of USA Today says Ward’s “technique and physical playing style have made him successful against even bigger receivers.” If the Panthers are searching for a larger corner, they could look at Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick (although he was primarily a slot corner with the Crimson Tide) or Iowa’s Josh Jackson in the first round, or Colorado’s Isaiah Oliver on Day 2.
I’d expect the Panthers to use the their free agent dollars to solidify their offensive line or attack their lack of wide receiver depth, so the club almost assuredly won’t be in the market for top-of-the-line corners such as Malcolm Butler or Trumaine Johnson. Second-tier options like Kyle Fuller or Prince Amukamara might even be too expensive, so Carolina could instead target options like E.J. Gaines (Bills) or veteran Johnathan Joseph (Texans). The Panthers have not been afraid to add over-30 players to their secondary before (see: Roman Harper, Mike Adams), so Joseph in particular shouldn’t be ruled out due to his age.
I could see Dez ending up on the Panthers