Top 3 Offseason Needs: New England Patriots

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors has been detailing each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We conclude the series today with the Super Bowl champs.

[RELATED: Click Here For The Complete Top 3 Offseason Needs Series]

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

• Martellus Bennett, TE
• LeGarrette Blount, RB
• Brandon Bolden, RB
• Alan Branch, DT
• Malcolm Butler, CB
• Justin Coleman, CB
• James Develin, RB
• Cameron Fleming, OT
• Michael Floyd, WR
• Duron Harmon, S
• Dont’a Hightower, LB
• Brandon King, S
• Matt Lengel, TE (ERFA)
• Chris Long, DE
• Barkevious Mingo, LB
• Logan Ryan, CB
• Greg Scruggs, TE
• Jabaal Sheard, DE
• Michael Williams, TE

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

• Tom Brady, QB: $14MM
• Nate Solder, LT: $11.17MM
• Devin McCourty, S: $10.94MM
• Danny Amendola, WR: $7.8MM
• Rob Gronkowski, TE: $6.75MM
• Julian Edelman, WR: $5.75MM
• Patrick Chung, S: $5.4MM
• Stephen Gostkowski, K: $4.5MM
• Marcus Cannon, LT: $3.37MM
• Shea McClellin, LB: $3.2MM

Other:

• Projected cap space (via Over The Cap): $59,667,426
• No. 32 overall pick in draft

Three needs:

1) Help on the Defensive Line: With linebacker Dont’a Hightower and cornerback Malcolm Butler set to hit free agency, most pundits will say that those two positions should be the Patriots’ main priority as they head into the draft and free agency.

However, the team should be absolutely fine at both spots, even in the unlikely event that both of these top free agents depart. Now, there’s nothing to suggest that the potential linebacker or cornerback replacements would immediately replace the production of Hightower and/or Butler. Rather, history tells us that the Patriots will adequately fill those roles with rookies or veterans.

Hightower didn’t have his most productive season when it comes to plain statistics. In 13 games, the former first-rounder finished with 65 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and one forced fumble. Of course, the 26-year-old proved his worth in the Super Bowl, where he collected a sack and a key forced fumble. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) was particularly fond of his performance this past season, as the website ranked him as the 12^th best linebacker in 2016 (as well as the second best at his position in pass rushing).

The organization made it clear that they were committed to Hightower following the trades of impending free agents Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones. Despite the team’s abundance of cap room, it was unlikely that the organization would be able (or willing) to sign the trio to lengthy, lucrative contracts. By moving on from the other talented defenders, the front office made it clear that Hightower was going to be the anchor of their defense for years to come.

That sentiment still seems to be the case, although a recent report indicated that the team wasn’t going to slap Hightower with their franchise tag. The linebacker presumably won’t command the franchise tag’s $14.7MM annual salary in free agency (although it may be close), so this news seems to be more of a financial decision, and there haven’t been any reports suggesting that the Patriots are prepared to move on without Hightower. Rather, I’d expect the team to approach his situation similarly to how they handled Devin McCourty’s free agency. They’ll offer the linebacker a contract and allow him to shop around for better offers from inferior teams. Assuming Hightower gets a better offer, he’ll presumably allow the Patriots to match. Therefore, the ball still seems to be in the organization’s court.

If Hightower does leave the Patriots, the team’s remaining linebackers shouldn’t be relied on to fill his starting role. Following the trade of Collins, coach Bill Belichick relied on a rotation of Elandon Roberts, Shea McClellin, Barkevious Mingo, Kyle Van Noy, and Rob Ninkovich (when he wasn’t playing defensive end) to play opposite Hightower. While the Patriots were able to rely on the hot hand through the rest of the season and the playoffs, it’d be tough to rely on two of those guys as starters next season.

Fortunately, in the event that Hightower does leave town, the Patriots shouldn’t be overly worried. While the team has generally struck out on all of their recent late-round linebackers (Xzavier Dickson, anyone?), the team has had plenty of success drafting the position in the first two rounds. Hightower, Collins, Jerod Mayo, and Brandon Spikes are among the team’s successful linebackers taken in the first two rounds of the draft. Furthermore, there’s plenty of depth at the position in free agency, and a number of aging veterans could adequately fit the role that the Patriots coaching staff is seeking. After all, the team doesn’t need a game-changer at linebacker. Instead, they just need someone who is capable in pass protection and stopping the run. Of course, all of this is moot if Hightower re-signs with the team.

Butler’s situation is a bit different than Hightower’s. There’s no denying that the cornerback is one of the most indispensable members of the Patriots defense, and his role is arguably more essential to the Patriots’ success than Hightower’s. The former undrafted free agent put his name on the map during the 2015 Super Bowl, and he was solid during his first season as a starter. In 2016, the 26-year-old established himself as one of the top cornerbacks in the game. Butler finished the campaign with 63 tackles, two fumbles recoveries, and four interceptions, and PFF ranked him as the seventh-best cornerback in the NFL.

Logan Ryan may have had his best season in a Patriots uniform (ranking 16^th among cornerbacks by PFF), but there’s no way the former third-rounder can be relied on as a number-one cornerback (not to mention that he’s a free agent himself). Additionally, former Eagles cornerback Eric Rowe flashed plenty of potential during his nine games this season, and the squad clearly thinks highly of rookie Cyrus Jones. Still, there’s no reason to think that any of these players could step in and seamlessly replace Butler.

Fortunately for the Patriots, Butler is a restricted free agent, so the team will have the opportunity to match any contract he receives. Belichick has shown that he’s willing to spend big on the position (Darrelle Revis and Aqib Talib come to mind), so it’d be a shock if the team let Butler walk without a clear replacement in place. His return is all but inevitable, and that means cornerback shouldn’t be a position of need.

That brings me back to my original point. While a hypothetical Butler or Hightower departure would certainly open a giant hole on the depth chart, no part of the Patriots defense needs as much work as the defensive line. The team’s pass rush was plenty impressive during the Super Bowl, but the unit struggled for stretches during the season. Despite finishing the season as one of the top defenses in the NFL, the Patriots still ranked 16^th in sacks (34) and failed to develop a consistent pass-rush.

Furthermore, while Hightower and Butler more-or-less seem to be shoo-ins to return to New England, many of the team’s impending defensive line free agents do not. Chris Long already made it clear that he won’t be returning next season, and Alan Branch may be looking for a payday following the best season of his career (49 tackles, 1.5 sacks, one forced fumble). Jabaal Sheard is also set to be a free agent, and I’m not convinced that he’ll return after getting benched during the regular season.

Fortunately, the team does have some young stars on the defensive line in Trey Flowers and Malcom Brown. Flowers was a revelation this past season as he essentially replaced Chandler Jones in the lineup. After sitting out his entire rookie campaign, the former fourth-rounder responded with 45 tackles and seven sacks in 2016. Meanwhile, Brown looked a lot more confident during his second season in the league, compiling 50 tackles and three sacks while ranking as PFF’s 31^st-best interior defender. The Patriots can at least take solace in the fact that they have two spots on their defensive line covered.

However, considering the impending free agency of Long, Sheard, and Branch, the Patriots could be lacking depth at multiple positions, and these players all played an integral role in the team having one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The draft seems to have plenty of talented edge defenders, so the team could theoretically use several of their picks to fill that depth. The team could also look to free agency to fill those holes, especially if they’re seeking the play-making type of player they lost when they traded Jones.

2) Offensive Skill-Player Depth: It seems a bit silly to suggest that the Patriots need even more offensive reinforcement, especially when the team finished towards the top of the league in most offensive categories this past season. The team especially showcased that depth in the Super Bowl, as Tom Brady completed a pass to seven different receivers. Still, you can never use enough depth when it comes to offensive skill players, and the offense could take a considerable hit depending on how the offseason shapes out.

It likely starts at tight end, where Martellus Bennett is set to get paid. The veteran bounced back following an underwhelming 2015 campaign in Chicago, collecting 55 receptions for 701 yards and seven touchdowns. The 29-year-old is obviously getting older, but his ability to serve as a dependable big target will certainly earn him a huge contract this offseason. He isn’t vital to the Patriots offensive success, but the team has proved that they’re even more dangerous when they have a pair of pass-catching tight ends on the field.

The status of Rob Gronkowski could also play a role in Bennett’s future with the team. The 27-year-old hasn’t played in 16 games since 2011, and his 25 receptions for 540 yards and three touchdowns were all career-lows. While there have been trade rumors surrounding the talented tight end, I’m under the belief that the team would be foolish to bail on him in a year where he holds an incredibly affordable $6.75MM cap hit. Gronk’s presence doesn’t necessarily deemphasize Bennett’s role in the offense, as the two showed that they can co-exist. Still, the team might not be willing to invest big money in Bennett if they’re planning on keeping Gronkowski long-term.

In the case that Bennett does leave, the team will surely bring in another veteran tight end who could catch the ball (Rob Housler and another scrapheap tight end will presumably fill the role of blocking tight end). Vernon Davis, Jermaine Gresham, and Jared Cook would fit the mold of the veteran, pass-catching tight end.

The team is set when it comes to their pass-catching running back, as the team can rely on the two-headed monster of Dion Lewis and James White. However, starting running back LeGarrette Blount is set to be a free agent, and there’s no guarantee that the veteran will be back – no matter what kind of pay cut he’s willing to take.

The 30-year-old had his best NFL season in 2016, compiling 1,161 yards and a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns. While those numbers are certainly eye-popping, a further look implies that the stats may be more a product of opportunity than talent. Blount finished second in the NFL with 299 carries, and his 3.9-yards-per-carry (30^th in the NFL) implies the former sentiment. These numbers went down in the playoffs, as Blount averaged 3.1-yards-per-carry during the Patriots’ three postseason games.

There’s something to be said for Blount’s familiarity with the Patriots system, and the veteran presumably won’t command a huge contract (especially if he’s open to returning to New England). On the flip side, there’s also something to be said for looking for minor improvements, and a more reliable running back could help preserve the aging Brady. Plus, this year’s crop of free agent running backs could allow the Patriots to secure an upgrade without breaking the bank.

Rival fans probably have nightmares of an Adrian Peterson, a Jamaal Charles, or even an Eddie Lacy joining the Patriots. I have a feeling that these players will likely command a contract the exceeds what New England is willing to offer, but it’d be surprising if the Patriots don’t at least explore these veteran options. The fact that the team stuck with Blount throughout the entire campaign indicates that they weren’t overly worried about his mediocre yards-per-carry stats, but the Patriots also won’t be willing to just hand him the starting role in 2017.

Wide receiver seemingly has the least amount of question marks, as Michael Floyd is the only bona fide member of the unit to hit free agency. I’m skeptical that veteran Danny Amendola will be willing to take another pay cut (especially following a successful postseason), so there’s probably a 50-50 chance that he could be gone. Julian Edelman will obviously be back as Brady’s binkie, while Chris Hogan is perfectly suited to be the team’s number-three wideout.

This means the team could be seeking another playmaker to play opposite Edelman. The Patriots could already have that option in-house with Malcolm Mitchell. You rarely see Brady trust a rookie as much as he did the fourth-round pick this past season, as Mitchell finished the campaign with 32 receptions for 401 yards and four touchdowns. The electric, speedy wideout should continue to improve, and that would eliminate the necessity to add another top receiver. On the flip side, Mitchell could follow the path of Aaron Dobson and Brandon Tate to become the next highly-touted Patriots receiver to peak too early.

3) A Trade Partner for Jimmy Garoppolo: Considering all of the team’s apparent needs, the biggest question surrounding the Patriots as they head into the offseason is the status of back-up quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The conclusion of the former second-rounder’s rookie contract is quickly approaching, so it’s apparent the Patriots need to make a decision sooner than later.

After serving as Belichick’s personal human victory cigar for the first two years of his career, Garoppolo looked like he was more than able to manage a team through his two starts in 2016. During that one-plus game sample, the quarterback completed 71-percent of his passes for 496 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Garoppolo ultimately sat out the next two games as he recovered from an AC joint sprain, and Brady was back from suspension by the time the young quarterback was ready to play.

Of course, we know how that story ended. Brady put up MVP numbers through his 12 regular season games, and he helped lead the Patriots to another Super Bowl championship. If there were any doubts regarding Brady’s future with the organization, they were certainly hushed following his postseason performance.

So why wouldn’t the Patriots want to keep their apparent heir apparent to Brady? The easy answer is money. Garoppolo will be hitting free agency following the 2017 season, and there’s no world where the organization will want to commit plus-$30MM to a pair of quarterbacks. After having seen teams commit themselves to the likes of Matt Flynn and Brock Osweiler, it shouldn’t be too shocking that rival organizations are rather infatuated with Garoppolo, and the quarterback will presumably earn a pretty penny when he reaches the open market. Therefore, instead of risking losing the quarterback for nothing, it’s in the Patriots’ best interest to trade Garoppolo while his value is at his highest.

The Patriots could theoretically head into next season with both Brady and Garoppolo (as well as second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett), and then be forced to make a decision next offseason. The team could always franchise Garoppolo before he hits free agency, and then they could deal him once he’s locked into that one-year contract. This certainly isn’t an awful route. If Brady shows a sudden Peyton Manning-like decline, the team already has their replacement ready to go. If Brady continues cruising, they can simply trade Garoppolo. On the flip side, if the team trades Garoppolo and Brady shows signed of decline, the team could be forced to hand the reigns to Brissett. While the rookie looked competent during his two starts in 2016, he’s yet to prove that he can even reach Garoppolo’s level.

However, the old sports adage says that players lose trade value every day that they remain on their current team. With a weak crop of quarterbacks in this year’s draft and an abundance of aging veteran signal-callers littering the free agency pool, team’s hoping to get a jump start on their rebuild will want their franchise quarterback as soon as possible. Therefore, it’s likely that the Patriots will receive the best Garoppolo trade offers this offseason as opposed to next.

Former Brady backups like Matt Cassel and Brian Hoyer proved to be capable quarterbacks, but they certainly weren’t franchise players. Still, that fear won’t stop other teams from offering a haul for Garoppolo. The Browns, 49ers, and Bears are three of the more popular teams when it comes to rumors surrounding the quarterback, and as our own Connor Byrne noted, the Browns second first-rounder (12^th overall) may convince the organization to pull the trigger on a Garoppolo trade.

As of right now, a trade seems unlikely, as reports from earlier this week indicated that the Patriots are not expected to trade their young signal-caller. Of course, this could just be a leverage attempt from the organization. For what it’s worth, more than 72-percent of our readers believe New England should indeed trade their young quarterback.

During the Patriots victory parade, Belichick started an awkward “No Days Off!” chant. We can only assume that the front office will be working tirelessly as they presumably look to trade Garoppolo before the upcoming draft.