Top 3 Offseason Needs: Indianapolis Colts

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Indianapolis Colts, who have now followed up three straight playoff seasons with back-to-back 8-8 slates. The Colts fired GM Ryan Grigson and hired Chris Ballard, and Jim Irsay will retain Chuck Pagano. But Indianapolis must address some on-the-field needs as well.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

• Mike Adams, S
• Quan Bray, WR (ERFA)
• Darius Butler, CB
• Chris Carter, LB
• Trent Cole, LB
• Jack Doyle, TE
• Jonotthan Harrison, C (RFA)
• Zach Kerr, DE (RFA)
• Josh McNary, LB
• Erik Swoope, TE (RFA)
• Hugh Thornton, G
• Jordan Todman, RB
• Robert Turbin, RB
• Erik Walden, LB

Top Cap Hits for 2017:

• Andrew Luck, QB: $19,400,000
• Anthony Castonzo, T: $12,800,000
• Vontae Davis, CB: $10,250,000
• T.Y. Hilton, WR: $10,000,000
• Arthur Jones, DE: $7,350,000
• Dwayne Allen, TE: $5,937,500
• Patrick Robinson, CB: $4,500,000
• Kendall Langford, DE: $4.250,000
• Frank Gore, RB: $3,500,000
• Adam Vinatieri, K: $2,750,000

Other:

• Projected cap space (via OverTheCap): $55,371,812
• Fourteenth or 15th pick in draft (will be determined by coin flip between Colts and Eagles)

Three Needs:

1.) Locate linebackers: Both parts of the Colts’ linebacking corps need help, now even more so after Thursday’s D’Qwell Jackson release leaves the team without much at any of the spots on the second level. But the pass-rushing stable is hurting the most. Robert Mathis‘ retirement signals the end of a special era for Indianapolis pass-rushers, with both he and Dwight Freeney ranking as two of the best players in franchise history. Almost every relevant pass-rusher on last year’s roster either plans to retire or will be a free agent. The Colts finished as a middle-of-the-pack team with 33 sacks last season (19th), but more than half of those came from players no longer attached to the roster. Erik Walden registered a team-high 11 despite recording 12 in his three prior Colts campaigns, and entering his age-32 season, his best football could well be behind him.

The franchise hired Chris Ballard, who’s respected for his draft acumen, having helped the Bears and Chiefs land many gems. He’ll be tasked with making this crucial repair. The potential exodus here is somewhat staggering given what the Colts have on their roster.

The Colts do not have an outside pass-rusher on their roster who recorded a sack in 2016. Entering free agency, Indianapolis employs Akeem Ayers and a host of UDFAs. The Ryan Grigson-era Colts were not shy about throwing money around in March, and the John Dorsey-led Chiefs haven’t been either. Although, the Chiefs’ buys have benefited the team more. The Colts need outside help here. Walden could be retained, but that’s a risky proposition after he nearly doubled his single-season sack best in a contract year. As for the UFA market, there are options. It’s unclear, however, if the impact players will make it to the market.

Chandler Jones and Melvin Ingram headline this class of 3-4 pass-rushers, while Jason Pierre-Paul and Nick Perry profile as other high-end performers. The Cardinals are reportedly willing to apply the franchise tag (projected at $14.754MM for linebackers) to keep Jones after his third double-digit-sack season. PFR’s No. 2 overall free agent, Jones joins Calais Campbell and Tony Jefferson as Arizona UFAs, so the Cardinals have some tough decisions to make. The former Patriot will likely be the Cards’ top priority.

Not much has surfaced on Ingram’s status in Los Angeles, but he’s the Chargers’ top outside rusher and is now free of his five-year rookie contract. The Bolts are also moving to a 4-3 set under Gus Bradley, potentially leaving Ingram without a natural position. That’s not a deal-breaker by any means, but Ingram could be a more realistic target for the Colts as a result of that philosophical change. Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap notes Ingram could ask for Ryan Kerrigan money (five years, $57.5MM) but could also be franchised and placed at defensive end in Bradley’s 4-3.

Pierre-Paul wants to match or top Olivier Vernon‘s contract. He’s a tougher sell due to the injury history, position change, and the demands he’s making. Perry has played exclusively in the Packers’ 3-4 and would be an obvious fit. He’s a similar contract-year story to Walden, recording 11 sacks last year after a nondescript statistical history previously, but he differs in being set for just his age-27 season in 2017. Perry did not receive abundant interest as a UFA last year but will after his 2016 emergence. The Packers like to retain their own but have talents like Jared Cook and T.J. Lang residing as impending UFAs as well, complicating their equation.

Venturing off the top tier, the Colts could target DeMarcus Ware or Julius Peppers on a short-term deal, but having employed three 30-somethings outside in ’16, Indy could be in the market for a reboot. That said, the Colts are a perennial contender in the AFC South because of Andrew Luck, so veterans can’t be considered off the table. Another 30-something who would be interesting is Lorenzo Alexander, a strange belated breakout who surpassed his previous career sack total last season, accruing 12.5 for the Bills. Expressing a desire to test the waters in what could be his only chance for a reasonable NFL payday, Alexander will be 34 in May. He qualifies as a short-term answer as a result. As for younger talent, Jabaal Sheard, Alex Okafor (eight sacks in 2014, but two biceps tears in his career) and suspension risk Armonty Bryant stand as cheaper choices than the edge players who run the risk of being tagged. Regardless, the Colts will need to address this position via veterans or rookies.

Since choosing Freeney in 2002, the Colts have not had much luck identifying pass-rushers in the first round. Jerry Hughes (2010) did not blossom in Indianapolis, and Bjoern Werner (2013) has already retired. ESPN.com’s Mel Kiper Jr. (Insider link) has the Colts selecting UCLA outside linebacker Takkarist McKinley, who recorded 18 tackles for loss and 10 sacks last season. The Colts are not going to be able to select Myles Garrett without a major trade, and the likes of Solomon Thomas (Stanford) and Derek Barnett (Tennessee) are viewed as top-12 picks, per Chad Reuter of NFL.com. Todd McShay of ESPN.com has Michigan’s Taco Charleton (10 sacks in ’16) in that realm as well, viewing the ex-Wolverines edge man as an option for a 4-3 or 3-4 team. The Colts are likely to have edge-rushing options picking 14th or 15th, but it may come down to choosing whichever one of these talents remains on the board by the time they pick.

Their need at inside linebacker isn’t as glaring, if only because this position does not require the same kind of investment to upgrade. But Jackson’s release, following an inconsistent tenure and some off-the-field trouble, leaves the team without much experience. Cutting the 33-year-old veteran saves more than $5.5MM, helping the team potentially pursue younger free agents. But beyond Jackson and aside from safety/hybrid ‘backer Clayton Geathers, Indianapolis houses a fourth-round pick and UDFA — each possessing one year of NFL seasoning.

In their initial full-season stays in Indiana, Edwin Jackson and Antonio Morrison excelled in disparate fashion, according to Pro Football Focus. While neither linebacker graded particularly well, Edwin Jackson showed promise in coverage while Morrison fared better as a run defender. These two now representing the Colts’ top inside incumbents, each will be given another chance to make an impact.

Without much money tied up in the linebacker position (as of now), the Colts could target a free agent as they did D’Qwell Jackson. The likes of Lawrence Timmons, Zach Brown, Kevin Minter and Perry Riley stand to be available as UFAs. Dont’a Hightower is no lock to be franchised given the Patriots’ ways of operation, but he will cost eight figures per year. That’s not the best way to allocate funds at linebacker if no pass-rushing threats are on the roster. So, this could be an auxiliary need that could see more attention in April than March. The Colts’ first-round window doesn’t lend itself to inside-linebacking help, at least not the way this draft class breaks down so far, but by the time Round 2 rolls around, Indianapolis could be in the market for help here. That is, if the Colts don’t see a running back they covet.

2.) Figure out Frank Gore‘s successor: One of the most enduring backs in NFL history, Frank Gore will enter the final season of his Colts contract. He became the oldest running back since John Riggins in 1984 to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in a season and will finish his career as one of the NFL’s all-time leading rushers. A second franchise will now have to formulate a succession strategy after the 49ers took Carlos Hyde to replace Gore three years ago.

A massive reliability chasm existed between Gore and his backups last season, with the Colts entrusting change-of-pace duties to Robert Turbin. Gore will turn 34 in May and enter his 13th season soon, and contrary to everything he’s shown in his career, the former Miami Hurricane will slow down at some point. A pending UFA, Turbin would like a chance at succeeding Gore, but he’s already 27 and averaged fewer yards per carry (3.5) than did Gore last season. The journeyman is not a long-term option based on what he’s shown.

The Colts have a window to draft their next starting running back, with so many early-entry prospects becoming part of the 2017 pool. While they should strongly consider a pass-rusher in Round 1, a Day 2 back selection is in play. With Gore set for at least one more year, 2017 would represent a chance to groom said back as a reserve option before turning over the 2018 reins to him.

If Indianapolis’ rearranged power structure doesn’t believe a pass-rusher provides solid first-round value, Dalvin Cook (2,253 total yards last season) profiles as a flashy consolation prize. Reuter envisions this future for the Colts. A Round 2 or 3 pick could see the likes of Alvin Kamara (Tennessee) and D’Onta Foreman (Texas) available at those respective middle-round junctures. A third-round selection of Joe Mixon could be a route as well, but the Oklahoma standout will obviously come with baggage. Mixon’s backstory makes projecting when he’ll be selected somewhat difficult as well.

While a rookie makes more sense given Gore’s timeline, finding a pass-catching back in free agency would be another way to go as a means of supplementing the starter.

Likely cap casualty Jamaal Charles, 30, is coming off consecutive knee injury-marred seasons, but the two-time All-Pro may be amenable to being a part-time back to stay in the league. He earned his second All-Pro honor during Ballard and Dorsey’s first year in Kansas City, and the Colts’ new personnel chief is familiar with the yards-per-carry dynamo. Danny Woodhead looms as a UFA but is nearly two years older than Charles. Younger options for this specific role include Lance Dunbar, Fozzy Whittaker and Andre Ellington. The latter averaged 5.5 yards per carry as a rookie before largely fading out of the Cardinals’ backfield. None of these options would be expensive, if the Colts sought a temporary change-of-pace player instead of a high- or middle-round draft pick to team with Gore.

3.) Strengthen the offensive front: The Colts have some nice pieces up front in Anthony Castonzo, Jack Mewhort and Ryan Kelly, and they used several draft choices last year on their O-line. But Luck still took 41 sacks last season, and Colts QBs as a whole absorbed 44 — fifth-most in the league. Colts passers also took 128 hits, which was No. 31 in the league — ahead of only the Browns’ 140 allowed. The team selected Kelly in Round 1, Le’Raven Clark in Round 3 and Joe Haeg in Round 5 last year, so this could be an area where only one additional starter is needed. The right side of Indy’s line needs a patch job, and it could be an interesting year for it on the market. Considering the Colts have just one veteran contract on their front, Castonzo, they can afford a second. Although, Mewhort is entering his contract year.

It’s a good year to need a guard in free agency, with several upper-echelon starters potentially available. Kevin Zeitler, Ronald Leary, T.J. Lang and Larry Warford. All four were top-25 PFF guards in 2016, and each has an extensive history as a starter. Zeitler and the Bengals have yet to enter contract talks, with the Packers lagging behind in discussions with Lang as well. Although, the longtime Green Bay guard wants to stay. PFR’s Zach Links rated Zeitler as the No. 8 UFA overall and tabbed the 29-year-old Lang as an honorable mention. Considering the capital the Cowboys have tied up in their line, Leary seems a great bet to leave. Warford has his eyes on free agency as well, creating what could be a hotly contested pursuit of players who don’t receive a ton of in-game notoriety.

Gore managed 1,025 yards, but they came on just 3.9 per carry. That’s the second-lowest mark of his career, with his worst yards-per-handoff number coming in 2015. This group at least needs supplementation.

Ravens right tackle Ricky Wagner seems likely to hit the market, with Baltimore prioritizing nose man Brandon Williams, but this UFA tackle class doesn’t quite possess the depth of the guard group. A Warford Lions mate, Riley Reiff could be available and has experience at both left and right tackle. Andre Smith is coming off injury, so the former longtime Bengals blocker could be had on a short-term pact.

The Colts used Haeg at both guard and tackle last season. He made eight starts at right tackle, four at right guard and two at left guard. Slotting Haeg at tackle would line up better if the Colts wanted to pursue a veteran guard, but it remains to be seen where he’s going to land. Clark could still be the answer at right tackle, but he was inactive for eight games.