Top 3 Offseason Needs: Detroit Lions

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Detroit Lions, who managed to make the playoffs for the second time in three years and third time this decade. But the team backed into the NFC bracket, closing the regular season with three losses, and did not fare well in a wild-card loss to the Seahawks. This leaves many offseason questions ahead.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

• Joique Bell, RB
• Anquan Boldin, WR
• Jonathan Bostic, LB
• Rafael Bush, S
• Crezdon Butler, CB
• Josh Bynes, LB
• Stefan Charles, DT
• Brandon Copeland, LB (ERFA)
• Clay Harbor, TE
• Kerry Hyder, DL (ERFA)
• Asa Jackson, CB
• T.J. Jones, WR (ERFA)
• Cornelius Lucas, T (RFA)
• Don Muhlbach, LS
• Matthew Mulligan, TE
• Dan Orlovsky, QB
• Riley Reiff, T
• Garrett Reynolds, T
• Andre Roberts, WR
• Khyri Thornton, DT (RFA)
• Tyrunn Walker, DL
• Larry Warford, G
• Tim Wright, TE

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

• Matthew Stafford, QB: $22,000,000
• Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $12,734,000
• Darius Slay, CB: $10,681,250
• Marvin Jones, WR: $8,600,000
• Golden Tate, WR: $8,351,250
• DeAndre Levy, LB: $8,225,000
• Glover Quin, S: $7,827,500
• Haloti Ngata, DT: $7,703,125
• Tahir Whitehead, LB: $4,550,000
• Matt Prater, K: $4,325,000

Other:

• Projected cap space (via OverTheCap): $32,797,575
• Twenty-first pick in draft
• Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for TE Eric Ebron

Three Needs:

1.) Stock the second level: Since signing the four-year, $33.74MM extension prior to the 2015 season, DeAndre Levy has contributed staggeringly little to the Lions’ cause. Playing in just six games and making only 21 tackles the past two seasons, Levy can no longer be counted on to be available. But he’s still Detroit’s best linebacker and has three years and almost $19MM remaining on his deal. The Lions will likely see if Levy can retain the form that led the team to extend him, but Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press notes a Levy pay cut request could be forthcoming after the soon-to-be 30-year-old weak-side man’s observed his value depreciate. Levy, however, won’t need further surgery on his right knee, which plagued him in 2016 after a hip injury harpooned his 2015 slate. Just $1.75MM of Levy’s 2017 salary ($5.75MM) is guaranteed against injury for 2017, becoming fully guaranteed on the third day of the league year. But thoughts of cutting the previous outside standout would basically mean starting over at linebacker, because the Lions are reeling here.

Levy’s extension thus far burning the Lions gives them no surefire answers on their defensive second level. Despite his 122 tackles far and away leading the team, Tahir Whitehead encountered mixed reviews. Pro Football Focus did not think the statistics gelled with Whitehead’s play level, ranking the 26-year-old as the league’s second-worst full-time linebacker last season. Whitehead is signed through 2017 after inking a two-year, $8MM extension last March. The Lions’ second-leading tackler among linebackers, Josh Bynes, is a pending UFA. A fifth-round pick from 2016, Antwione Williams, and a former waiver claim (Thurston Armbrister) represent the only other ‘backers under contract.

A group that appeared solid a couple of seasons ago, with Levy and the since-released Stephen Tulloch manning positions, could use reinforcements. Football Outsiders ranked the Lions last in defensive DVOA in 2016, and although Detroit’s defense ranked 18th in terms of rushing yards allowed, this is a primary need area.

It’s not a great year to need a non-rush linebacker, particularly if a team is seeking outside help in a 4-3. Assuming Levy returns to commandeer the weak-side spot (big if, obviously), the Lions may need two new starters. As far as 4-3 OLBs go, it’s an incredibly thin contingent.

Malcolm Smith now profiles as player with significant starting experience compared to his initial free agency foray in 2015, when he was coming off a stay as a Seahawks contributor. Smith, though, did not impress much in Oakland despite being the Raiders’ most-used pure linebacker the past two seasons. Beyond that, Bynes, Keenan Robinson and Barkevious Mingo loom as undesirable options. Bob Quinn‘s former team traded for Mingo last year, but the former No. 6 overall pick made little impact. The 27-year-old Bynes could conceivably be back on a cheap deal. He signed a two-year pact with Detroit in 2015 but saw an injury lead to his release. The Kyle Van Noy trade re-routed Bynes to the Motor City, where he started eight games last season and earned a middling PFF grade — but tops among Lions linebackers. The Lions still may be better off targeting a rookie in the early rounds to fill this need.

If the team would be open to converting a 3-4 inside man to the outside, more options are available. Zach Brown and Kevin Minter are each coming off quality seasons and will be looking to cash in, Brown (149 tackles with the Bills in 2016) especially after settling for a one-year deal as a UFA last year. A middle linebacker in the Raiders’ base 4-3 set but a player used on passing downs as well, Perry Riley stands to be available after re-emerging last season. Settling for one of the other talents here — unless it’s Lawrence Timmons, whom the Steelers are considering keeping — doesn’t make much sense. It could be time for an early-round investment.

The Lions have mostly avoided linebackers in Round 1, with Ernie Sims (2006) representing the last such selection. They went for Van Noy in Round 2 three years ago, but he’s the only second-rounder the franchise has used on this position in the past nine years. A 2009 third-round choice, Levy joins many modern non-rush linebackers in showing that filling this spot with later-round draft picks can work. However, his own standing with the team presently could induce an early selection to help tilt the odds in the Lions’ favor.

Most mainstream mock drafts do not have the Lions going for a linebacker with their No. 1 pick, but Detroit has talent at every other level of its defense that will return. Be it Ziggy Ansah, Darius Slay, or Glover Quin. This defense needs help at multiple spots, but if Levy can’t return to regular duty, no such cornerstone cog exists at linebacker. And even if the ninth-year player does return to form, counting on it to last may be asking too much.

A chasm exists between Reuben Foster and the rest of the traditional linebackers in this rookie class. Jarrad Davis could be the No. 2 pure ‘backer on the board by the time No. 21 comes around, and the ex-Florida talent’s ankle troubles — which will force him to miss Combine workouts — could scare off teams in the teens from making that pick. Of course, the Lions themselves dealing with a chronically injured linebacker may make drafting Davis a difficult proposition. He of 125 tackles (16.5 for loss) in 13 games, Vanderbilt’s Zach Cunningham is viewed as a late-first-round talent as well. It’s doubtful Ohio State’s Raekwon McMillan will be there when the Lions’ second-round window opens. Foster’s lesser-regarded teammate, Ryan Anderson, could be, however.

This is not a bad need to have when it comes to bringing in young talent, as recent Day 2 picks Deion Jones and Jordan Hicks showed in becoming instant contributors the past two years.

2.) Give Ansah some help: The Lions may have located an Ansah sidekick out of nowhere in Kerry Hyder, an ex-UDFA who came off the bench for the most part and led the team with eight sacks in his second season. No other Lion currently under contract finished with more than two. Hyder will be back as an ERFA, but the Lions’ D-line is thin both inside and outside. Devin Taylor, Tyrunn Walker and Armonty Bryant are UFAs for a team with middling cap space, and Haloti Ngata is going into his age-34 season and another contract campaign. Detroit drafted Alabama’s A’Shawn Robinson in the second round last year. He saw 446 snaps, but the jury’s still out.

Nevertheless, the Lions could lose a sizable sect of their rotation up front. This could be construed as a greater need due to the resources required to make pass-rush fortifications.

Detroit’s 26 sacks ranked in a tie for the second-fewest in the league, and Ansah’s troubles with a high ankle sprain contributed to that number. However, the talented edge player only missed three games and regressed from a standout 2015 (14.5 sacks). Detroit needs assistance here while being cognizant obviously of Ansah (two sacks in 2016) entering his fifth-year option season. Currently, the Lions don’t have any defensive linemen signed through 2018 making more than $1.5MM. That should change once Ansah is extended or franchise-tagged, but if Quinn is going to authorize a big outside payment this offseason, this would be the spot to do so.

There are options at 4-3 defensive end. Jason Pierre-Paul fronts the group, but his salary demands could easily make a team that likely has Ansah extension plans balk. PFR’s Zach Links regards Pierre-Paul as a strong franchise tag candidate as well. Beyond JPP, Jabaal Sheard makes sense to investigate. He arrived in New England during Quinn’s stay with the team, making a big difference for the 2015 Patriots as a role player before regressing to the level of being a game-day inactive at one point this season. Sheard still made 13 sacks with the Patriots in two seasons and registered at least 7.5 during three of his six NFL slates. The 27-year-old Sheard’s contract-year issues may make teams wary of paying him, but reasonable upside exists.

Panthers defensive ends Mario Addison and Charles Johnson could hit the market, with Dave Gettleman‘s top priority being Kawann Short. Both edge players want to stay in Charlotte, but Addison in particular may be eager to test the market after breaking out with a 9.5-sack slate. As a reserve, Addison registered 22 sacks over the past three years. He will turn 30 before the season, though, presumably intensifying a desire to get paid now even on a medium-length deal.

Lions mock drafts have the team eyeing this spot. Tennessee’s Derek Barnett (32 sacks in three seasons), Michigan’s Taco Charlton (15.5 sacks between 2015-16) and Alabama’s Tim Williams (16 tackles for loss in ’16) comprise three pass-rushers linked to the Motor City. Florida defensive tackle Caleb Brantley and Michigan State’s Malik McDowell would be in range as well, representing a path Detroit would have to consider given that only two DTs reside on its offseason roster.

Some 4-3 defensive tackles make sense on the market, with Alan Branch spending two years with the Patriots during Quinn’s stay. The 32-year-old would be a stopgap solution, though, which isn’t exactly what the Lions need since Ngata now qualifies as such. Just 24, Johnathan Hankins has shown flashes as an interior pass-rusher. He racked up seven sacks in 2014, and the Giants may have a difficult time keeping him now that Pierre-Paul looms as a tag candidate (thus, a $16MM-plus payment). Hankins resides in a class with Kawann Short, Dontari Poe, Bennie Logan and Brandon Williams, which would ordinarily be a loaded contingent if each was going to hit the market. Since that won’t be the case, Hankins makes sense as a scheme fit, having always played in a 4-3.

Nonetheless, multiple contributors will be sought to help here. What remains to be seen are the kind of funds Quinn will allocate to this spot.

3.) Replenish the offensive front: The two offensive linemen most associated with the Lions’ intermittent run of success during the mid-2010s, Riley Reiff and Larry Warford, are UFAs. Warford is likely to test free agency and will join a talented group of guards as unattached veterans. Nothing much has emerged on the Reiff front, but the sixth-year lineman saw the Lions relocate him to right tackle in 2016. He may be looking to return to the better-compensated tackle spot. Reiff had a decent season, but in a weak class of tackles, the former first-round pick could see his price rise. At 28, this could be the edge blocker’s lone chance at a lucrative payday on the market, so the Lions could be looking at having to fill two spots up front, at least.

Detroit already ranked 31st in adjusted line yards last season, with that evidence showing in Theo Riddick‘s Lions-leading 357 rushing yards (in just 10 games). This section could be dedicated to improving the ground game as a whole, but Ameer Abdullah figures to be given another chance — although, 2017 might be his last opportunity as a starter — and Riddick is a proven change-of-pace back. What lies in front of the team’s top ball-carriers will be an issue if both aforementioned incumbents leave.

Now that Reiff’s fifth-year option season concluded, Lions’ line does not house a veteran salary. This leaves some potential for funding to be routed here.

Warford’s potential defection and Laken Tomlinson‘s shaky start puts the Lions in the market for one of the talented guards. Of course, signing one of them might take money most teams are unaccustomed to paying an interior blocker. Kevin Zeitler, T.J. Lang and Ronald Leary are set to join Warford on the market, and $10MM per year will be a realistic target since Kyle Long and David DeCastro raised the bar for non-Kelechi Osemele guards via 2016 extensions. Chris Chester, Chance Warmack and now Brandon Fusco loom as fallback options for those teams too squeamish to go big in the guard derby. If Warford leaves, the Lions are going to require an experienced replacement since Tomlinson hasn’t proven he can be counted on yet but may again be counted on to start.

Beyond Taylor Decker, 2015 seventh-rounder Corey Robinson is the only tackle on the Lions’ roster. It doesn’t seem likely the team goes after a guard and tackle in free agency with big money considering its defensive needs. Beyond Reiff, Ricky Wagner will be coveted by teams seeking right-edge help. Decker being entrenched on the left side after a quality rookie season makes Detroit’s tackle search rather focused. Andre Smith, Mike Remmers and Jordan Mills are second-tier right tackle options if the team wants to spend at guard. ESPN.com’s Mel Kiper Jr. has the Broncos taking Utah’s Garrett Bolles (ESPN Insider link) one spot ahead of the Lions but places Wisconsin’s Ryan Ramczyk — once thought to be the top tackle in a weak class — within range, sending him to the Seahawks at 26. NFL.com’s Charley Casserly mocks Alabama’s Cam Robinson to Detroit at 21. The team could have to weigh this need against those within its defensive front seven.

There are a number of ways the Lions could go in Round 1 and in free agency, because for a team that’s coming off a playoff berth, there are a healthy amount of areas that require attention.