Could teams strike gold in this year’s draft? Those in the know tell Albert Breer of The MMQB that this is an exceptionally deep class.
“Depth-wise, it’s great,” said one AFC executive. “What I like about it is, if we do our job, and have faith in our scouts, we can get starters into the fifth round.”
“It’s a very good draft,” a top personnel executive for an NFC team added. “If you’re in a position like Cleveland is with a lot of picks—and you still gotta pick the right guys—but it’s an excellent draft. Very deep across the board.”
Breer’s entire column is worth a read, but here’s a look at some of the highlights:
- There has been a lot of talk about Oklahoma running back Joe Mixon going undrafted, but one area scout is insistent that he’ll be taken. “It needs to be the right market, a team that can handle the onslaught, the right PR staff, because you’ll have to weather the storm,” said one area scout assigned to the Sooners. “But the guy the Chiefs drafted (Tyreek Hill), Joe Mixon isn’t half the douchebag that guy was. … You’d have to search to find people that don’t like him. Maybe the parking-lot attendant. Everyone there loves him. And I believe them.”
- This year’s class of quarterbacks might not be as weak as advertised, according to some officials. “It’s a good quarterback class,” said our NFC exec. “Realistically, all five of those guys (Mitch Trubisky, DeShaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Patrick Mahomes, and Davis Webb) go in the first two rounds.” That’s a bold prediction on the part of that anonymous exec since there have been only five drafts (2014, ’12, ’11, ’07, ’06) since 2000 in which five QBs went inside the first two rounds.
- Meanwhile, it sounds like Trubisky is still the leader of the pack. “I’ll be shocked if Trubisky’s not the first one off the board,” said one AFC exec. One AFC scout is confident that he’s a “top two or three pick.” However, as Breer notes, the UNC QB doesn’t project as a superstar and it remains to be seen whether a team is willing to burn a top pick on someone who projects to be more of an Andy Dalton than a Tom Brady.
- The strength of this year’s class will be in the secondary and at running back, Breer writes. There’s also depth when it comes to wide receiver and tight end. Where this class is lacking, however, is on the offensive line. NFL execs tell Breer that they are worried this is not a one-time instance, but a sign of things to code. The spread offense and practice restrictions, they say, are hurting the quality of college offensive linemen.
Tom Brady didn’t project as Tom Brady after going in the 6th round. Dak Prescott was a 4th round backup, and Russell Wilson was too small to effectively play QB when he dropped to the 3rd round. Projections, where they get drafted, none of it matters. I’d rather draft a QB late who is hungry with his head on straight than a 1st round QB with lots of “potential” but are head cases like Ryan Leaf or Johnny Manziel.
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Just because 5 QBs go in the first two rounds doesn’t mean it’s a good QB class. You cited the 2011 draft as an example, but from that draft only Cam Newton and Andy Dalton (both really good QBs) have consistently been good. Kaepernick had like one or two good years, Locker retired, and Gabbert and Ponder have been train wrecks.
Also, whoever drafts Trubisky, if the intention is for him to be a starter right away, is going to regret it. Watson is still my preferred QB in this class. I’d rather take a chance on Glennon or see what the actual price on McCarron is before hoping one of the other four QBs can be Week 1 starter.