Top 3 Offseason Needs: Carolina Panthers

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Carolina Panthers, who fell to 6-10 this season after making a Super Bowl appearance in 2015.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

• Mario Addison, DE
• Chas Alecxih, DT (ERFA)
• Brenton Bersin, WR (RFA)
• Corey Brown, WR (RFA)
• LaRon Byrd, WR
• Ted Ginn, WR
• Michael Griffin, S
• Wes Horton, DE
• Ben Jacobs, LB (ERFA)
• A.J. Klein, LB
• Charles Johnson, DE
• Leonard Johnson, CB
• Colin Jones, S
• Tyler Larsen, G (ERFA)
• Kyle Love, DT
• Andrew Norwell, G (RFA)
• Michael Palardy, P (ERFA)
• Mike Remmers, T
• Chris Scott, G
• Kawann Short, DT
• Ryan Wendell, C
• Fozzy Whittaker, RB
• Teddy Williams, CB

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

1. Cam Newton, QB: $20,166,000
2. Luke Kuechly, LB: $12,363,324
3. Greg Olsen, TE: $10,350,000
4. Ryan Kalil, C: $8,329,000
5. Thomas Davis, LB: $8,250,000
6. Jonathan Stewart, RB: $8,250,000
7. Star Lotulelei, DT: $6,757,000
8. Michael Oher, T: $5,500,000
9. Graham Gano, K: $3,850,000
10. Kurt Coleman, S: $3,650,000

Other:

• Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $54,447,826
• Eighth pick in the draft
• Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for WR Kelvin Benjamin

Three Needs:

1) Protect Cam Newton. Offensive tackle has seemingly been among the list of the Panthers’ needs since the 2014 offseason, when longtime blindside protector Jordan Gross announced his retirement. Problems have arisen on the right side, as well, and Carolina has run out the likes of Byron Bell, Nate Chandler, David Foucault, and Mike Remmers over the past several years in an effort to keep Cam Newton upright.

At present, Michael Oher is slated to return as the club’s left tackle. The 30-year-old was above-average in 2015, his first season with Carolina, and subsequently agreed to a three-year extension that locks him up through the 2019 campaign. Oher missed all but three games in 2016 while dealing with concussion issues, and there’s an outside chance he’s released this offseason (the Panthers would create $4.5MM in cap space by designating Oher a post-June 1 cut). On the right side, third-year pro Daryl Williams looks like the starter, as 16-game starter Mike Remmers is headed for unrestricted free agency.

Remmers shouldn’t be an offseason priority, especially given that he’s mostly been a disaster during his tenure with the Panthers. A combination of Oher and Williams can probably get by, but ideally, Carolina would try to find a new left tackle in the coming months, a move that would allow Oher to slide back to right tackle. That solution sounds like a doable plan in theory, but the 2017 class of offensive tackles is underwhelming, and Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com says that there isn’t a ton of first-round talent in the group.

Alabama’s Cam Robinson is considered the top prospect at the position, but even he comes with flaws that could cause him to fall past the top-10 picks. As Rob Rang of CBSSports.com notes, Robinson has faced off-field concerns (an arrest on weapons and drug charges which were ultimately dropped), while some observers doubt that he’ll be able to stay at left tackle. Wisconsin’s Ryan Ramczyk, Utah’s Garett Bolles, and Pittsburgh’s Adam Bisnowaty are among the other OTs who could potentially come off the board on Day 1. For what it’s worth, one scout recently told Matt Miller of Bleacher Report that Bolles is set to “shoot up” draft boards, and potentially overtake Robinson as the No. 1 tackle available.

The Panthers could also take a dip into free agency in its search for a new left tackle, a plan that isn’t out of the question given that the club is still very much in win-now mode. Still, given that options like Matt Kalil and Sebastian Vollmer wouldn’t represent an upgrade over Oher, Carolina would essentially be limited to two free agents: Andrew Whitworth or Riley Reiff. The Bengals likely want to re-sign Whitworth, but given that Cincinnati recently spent two high picks on tackles, a reunion is no sure thing. Whitworth has made it clear that he wants to remain at left tackle, and as Pro Football Focus‘ No. 2 rated tackle, he’d signify an improvement over Oher. Reiff, meanwhile, spent 2016 on the right side after the Lions drafted Taylor Decker, but he’d presumably relish an opportunity to move back to the blindside.

The interior of Carolina’s offensive line could also be addressed this offseason in the form of extensions, as guards Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner are heading into the final seasons of their rookie deals (Norwell is a restricted free agent and will be offered a tender). It’s unclear whether the Panthers will be able to retain both guards, or will even feel the need to do so — after all, Turner was a third-round choice while Norwell was an undrafted free agent, so perhaps the club is confident in its ability to unearth low-cost interior line talent. From the players’ point of view, Norwell and Turner may want to wait until free agents such as Kevin Zeitler and T.J. Lang set the guard market this spring before beginning negotiations.

2) Draft a young running back. Injuries have limited Jonathan Stewart for most of his career, but he’s actually managed to play in 26 of a possible 32 regular season games overt the past two years. Unfortunately, though no longer hampered by health issues, Stewart’s play is declining — his yards per carry has dropped in each of the last three seasons, while he ranked 35th and 36th in DYAR and DVOA, respectively, in 2016.

Throw in Stewart’s contract situation — he’ll count $8.25MM against the cap in 2017 before becoming a free agent next offseason — and the Panthers need to start thinking about Stewart’s replacement. Carolina has very little depth behind the soon-to-be 31-year-old Stewart, as Fozzy Whittaker, Mike Tolbert, and 2015 fifth-rounder Cameron Artis-Payne (who has typically been a healthy inactive during his two years in the league) comprise the rest of the Panthers’ running back corps.

Carolina is highly unlikely to enter free agency in order to find a running back, although I’d be especially curious to see what Christine Michael could do in the Panthers’ power-running scheme. Perhaps if the Panthers opt to release Stewart — a move that would free up north of $6MM in cap room if done as a post-June 1 transaction — the team could start over at the running back position, and at that point, a free agent might make sense. But the draft is probably the more realistic avenue for Carolina to locate its new back.

This year’s draft is full of running backs who could be selected in the first few rounds, as Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com places five runners among his top-50 prospects: Leonard Fournette (LSU), Dalvin Cook (Florida State), Christian McCaffrey (Stanford), Alvin Kamara (Tennessee), and Curtis Samuel (Ohio State). Fournette, at No. 6 overall, is the top back in the 2017 class, and Jeremiah writes that the Tigers RB “rarely attempts to make anyone miss, preferring to punish instead,” while also noting that Fournette has improved his pass protection skills. Last month, one scout told Ian Rapoport of NFL.com that Fournette is a better prospect than was Todd Gurley when he entered the draft two years ago.

The Panthers could certainly aim high and draft Fournette with the eighth overall selection — just last week, Rotoworld’s Josh Norris mocked Fournette to Carolina — but there is an inherent risk in selecting running backs early in the draft, let alone in the top-10 picks. It’s such a fungible position that, for many teams, it simply doesn’t make sense to invest prime resources when a suitable option could be found later in the draft. Plus, given the bottoming-out of free agent RB contracts around the NFL, the benefits of a first-round rookie deal don’t apply to running backs as much as they do to other, more valuable positions.

3) Sort out — and bolster — the pass rush. There’s no question that the Panthers got after opposing quarterbacks last season. Under former coordinator (and current Bills head coach) Sean McDermott, Carolina ranked second in the NFL with 47 sacks, and placed fifth in the league with a 7.3% adjusted sack rate. However, many of the Panthers’ key pass rushers are entering, or nearing, free agency, and given that the club’s entire defensive unit hinges on strong production up front, Carolina needs to address its defensive line immediately.

Let’s take a look at the current scope of the Panthers’ DL, starting on the interior: Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei form one of the more effective defensive tackle duos in the NFL, but Short is about to become a free agent, while Lotulelei will hit free agency next year after playing out his fifth-year option. Short, 28 next month, recently placed third on PFR’s 2017 Free Agent Power Rankings, and figures to be incredibly expensive on the open market. The franchise tag looms an option, but Short briefly held out of camp last year after failing to reach a long-term agreement with the Panthers. Short has maintained he would quickly sign the franchise tender if offered, but if he does stage some sort of disruption, general manager Dave Gettleman — the man who rescinded Josh Norman‘s franchise tag last year — might not put up with it.

Veteran defensive tackle Paul Soliai looks like an obvious cut this offseason, leaving 2016 first-round pick Vernon Butler as Carolina’s top reserve (or potentially a starter if Short departs) on the inside. Last year’s selection of Butler was a wise move on the part of the Panthers, as the club is now set up to withstand the loss of either Short or Lotulelei over the next two seasons. As such, the more pressing problems for Carolina exist on the edge, where the team could stand to add an extra option in the next few months.

Defensive ends Mario Addison and Charles Johnson, who respectively ranked first and fourth in sacks among Panthers defenders, are both free agents. Johnson, who re-signed with Carolina last year after being released earlier in the offseason, has already expressed interest in staying with the Panthers. Addison, meanwhile, came out of nowhere to post 9.5 sacks and grade as Pro Football Focus’ No. 16 edge defender, but played on fewer than 500 snaps and will be 30 years old when the 2017 campaign begins, meaning he’s probably not cut out to be a full-time starter. Kony Ealy, another defensive end, is entering the last season of his rookie deal and will become a free agent in 2018.

All of which to say that the Panthers need to invest in their edge rush, both in the near term and for the future. Free agent defensive ends that may interest Carolina could include Jabaal Sheard, Datone Jones, and veteran Dwight Freeney, but those options are only on the table if the Panthers don’t think they can land a top-notch defensive end in the draft. At pick No. 8, Carolina should see at least one of Stanford’s Solomon Thomas, Alabama’s Jonathan Allen, or Tennessee’s Derek Barnett on the board, and should probably pounce.

Despite the Panthers’ poor 2016 record, the club is still very much a 2017 contender, and should be able to paper over many of the holes listed above (at least for the time being). Michael Oher and Daryl Williams represent a viable tackle combination, Jonathan Stewart can probably produce for at least one more season, and Carolina can hold onto Kawann Short for one more year via the franchise tag. As such, the Panthers should be able to truly employ a “best player available” strategy when the eighth pick rolls around in late April.