Even though quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is only a year from hitting free agency, the Patriots are going to place a high asking price on Tom Brady‘s backup if they shop him during the offseason. In order to move the 25-year-old Garoppolo, New England is likely to want at least a first- and fourth-round pick in return, ESPN’s Adam Schefter told WEEI on Wednesday.
In the latest high-profile trade involving a signal-caller, the Vikings sent a first- and fourth-rounder to the Eagles for Sam Bradford last September. Bradford came with two years of team control, but his recent track record at the time wasn’t as impressive as Garoppolo’s work early this season.
In two games filling in for a suspended Brady, Garoppolo completed 42 of 59 passes for 496 yards and four touchdowns as the Patriots racked up wins over Arizona and Miami. The plan was for Garoppolo to start all four games of Brady’s season-opening Deflategate ban, but that changed when Dolphins linebacker Kiko Alonso knocked the 2014 second-rounder out with a shoulder injury in Week 2.
With Brady entrenched under center in New England, it’s possible Garoppolo’s Week 2 start will go down as his last with the organization. While it would ideal for the Patriots to retain Garoppolo for the long haul as the successor to Brady, that looks unrealistic. The soon-to-be 40-year-old Brady hasn’t waned in 2016 from his typical MVP-level form and is under Patriots control through the 2019 campaign. So is third-stringer Jacoby Brissett, with whom the Pats went 1-1 when Brady and Garoppolo were unavailable in Weeks 3 and 4.
With the Redskins’ Kirk Cousins likely a poor bet to become a free agent, Garoppolo could end up as the top potential long-term solution available at QB in the offseason. Speculatively, teams like the Browns, Bears, 49ers, Texans, Jaguars, Bills and Jets could be among those to chase Garoppolo, which might lead to a bidding war and enable the Pats to receive their desired compensation. New England could otherwise keep the ex-Eastern Illinois star at an $820K salary in 2017 and, should Garoppolo sign elsewhere after next season, potentially receive a compensatory third-rounder in the 2019 draft.
not worth it. I’d give a 2 and maybe a 4 for an unproven dude with 1 year left.
Is Garappolo worth a 1st and 4th round pick? Here’s what you have to look at – how often do first round picks end up being franchise QBs? The answer is very very few. There’s at least one first round QB pick bust every year, with the upside being a couple of journeymen, and on average about one franchise QB every couple of years. And the big problem is there’s no chance to analyze them before they play in the NFL to see if their game will REALLY translate to the faster, harder NFL game. Look at Goff, the number one pick of 2016 sat out nearly all year to study the NFL game – and even then one he played he looks like a fresh-faced rookie who’s being thrashed by NFL defenses. So what are the odds Garoppolo has what it takes: well, people forget that he was a 2nd round pick – the highest NE has drafted a QB since Drew Bledsoe in 1993; and Garoppolo was not panned as a 2nd round pick – the only questions were why NE was drafting a QB so high with Brady playing as well as he was – the obvious answer, NE drafts for value – they saw a 1st round quality pick drop to the 2nd round. Garoppolo is certainly not a “system QB” – don’t forget he broke most of Tony Romo’s collegiate records at Eastern Illinois (and Romo’s no NFL slouch). If Garoppolo had put up those numbers at a 1A program, he’d have been a top-5 pick easily. Most college QBs need training and seasoning before they are successful – NE has put in that training for Garoppolo, and he’s put in the necessary effort. In the games he finally got to start this year, he wasn’t just a ‘good’ NFL QB, he was outstanding – his QB rating for those games puts him in the top 3 QBs in the league (QBR=115)! (And almost as importantly, NO interceptions, and only 1 fumble lost.) Conversely, Houston paid how many million for a QB who had just a few more games with a QBR of 86 and a TD:Int ratio of 10:6? It looks like they got what they were buying. (BTW – Sam Bradford had the same QBR, and Minnesota paid how many picks and how much hit the their salary cap?) So yes, the sample size it a little smaller, but… Garoppolo’s QBR is much much higher than either Bradford or Osweiler, he won’t cost a team millions off their salary cap to try out for that year, and the “cost” is lower than people think. People routinely wax poetically how their first round pick is going to transform their team, because once in awhile a guy does. But how often does that really happen? What is the REAL success rate of first round pics in general? How often is one a starter, and how often a real impact player. The fact is only 30% of first round picks even become regular starters (link to forbes.com); and you know only a small percentage of starters are real impact players. The chance of a 4th round player becoming a starter is about 11%. So giving up a first rounder and a fourth rounder (for a total 41% chance of a NFL starter) for a QB with a short, but proven (high-quality) sample size, for extremely low financial cost (about a million for the year), is a far smarter move than either spending over $100 on a low-QBR Osweiler, or spending similar picks AND a high-end QB salary on Bradford (with a similar low-QBR). If, near the end of the year, the team see what they would like to with Garoppolo, yes, they will have to pony up. But they’ll have gotten the proof they need BEFORE paying Osweiler-type salary – and they’ll have gotten that proof first hand (not with the QB being the beneficiary of the Denver defense). It’s a deal any team with a need at QB cannot afford to NOT make.
Do you write novels in your spare time?
RockHard for the win.
Sometimes good thorough analysis requires more than an opinion followed by a random thought or two 😉
Very well written. I get all that, but I guess it depends which first you are giving up. If I’m the browns or the niners, I don’t pay that price. If I’m a team like the Texans(a playoff team) I probably would. the question is, how likely are too ten picks to become starters who make a difference? We can’t lump all first rounders together when discussing value. You make great points though.
Correction: I might give up the rams pick of I were the browns.
Agreed. I’ve considered whether one of these teams might make a prior trade to trade down in the first round, giving them another pick or two later in the draft, to at least partially make up for giving up the two picks. That would be a smart move on their part.
You should copy and paste this and print it out and mail it to the Bears, Browns, 49ers, Texans, Broncos, Jets and Cardinals. If they were smart they would read it and place serious consideration on what you say in your post. Very well written as well.
My thumbs hurt from so much scrolling
Excellent argument for Garoppolo. He merits a 1st
1st
3rd
Very valid points. I would say email this to the 49ers FO, but Baalke/York are much too incompetent to pay attention to solid reasoning like this.
Thanks! Sounds like they’re not there anymore, so who knows…
I can see the Browns trading for him if it’s not the Browns then a team in the NFC Pat’s won’t trade him to the same division or conference
Don’t think they care about that. They’ll trade him for the best offer.
Any team thinking about trading for him should use Matt Cassel as a reason not to make the trade. He had one good year not in New England. Come to think of it are there any players or coaches that have been successful after leaving the Patriots. I’m sure there are a few but not a lot that started with them then left for another team.
Cassel was a 7th round pick – he never had the kind of skills or potential that Garoppolo has.
Only way I’m even thinking about going after this guy is if McDaniels comes with him but no way would I give up a 1st rd pick for him unless it was a later round pick.
I think the browns will end up trading New England the eagles pick
read the name
Do people forget Matt Cassel came from the same system?
Cassel was a 7th round pick – he never had the kind of skills and potential that Garoppolo has.
As a Pats fan, Cassel was the typical prototypical system QB. Not to mention that in 2009, the Pats had a ridiculously cake schedule. I think 10 or 11 teams they played had a .500 or worse record. Cassel was pretty much a game manager.
Garrapolo seems like a legit QB. Franchise? Who knows. But definitely better – and younger – than a Bradford or Osweiler, and look what they got, in terms of trade value and contract, respectively.
Can’t forget that, even though a 1st & 4th seems pricey, it’s all about the market and recent precedents set. True, the Vikes were desperate, but they still set the market, snd that’s for a veteran QB who hadn’t done anything.
It only takes one team to be desperate enough to pay the price, even if it seems high..
Believe it or not Pats are more apt to want a 2nd and 3rd and maybe a 4th or conditional next year. They don’t like to pay 1st round money. The coach sees more value in those types of deals.
I could see the Browns offering a 3rd round compensatory pick (if they get more than one 3rd round compensatory pick, which I doubt) or a 4th round pick in the 2017 draft (especially if the pick for Jamie Collins turns out to be the 3rd round compensatory pick rather than the 4th round pick) as well as a conditional pick in the 2018 draft, which would be dependent on several factors: re-signing with the Browns before leaving in free agency, playing time, how well he plays, etc. Start it at a 5th round pick (Patriots get this if Garoppolo leaves as a free agent after the 2017 season – or just a swap of Browns-Patriots 5th round picks), elevates to a 4th upon re-signing, then to a 3rd (possibly 2nd) depending on how much and how well he plays during the 2017 season. If he signs elsewhere, the Browns get Garoppolo for the 2017 season and would give up a 3rd or 4th in 2017 and a 5th in 2018. If he signs a long term contact with the Browns before the trade is completed, the Patriots would automatically get the 3rd or 4th in 2017 and a 4th in 2018. If he signs and plays well, the 4th in 2018 would become a 2nd or 3rd.
This would eliminate any risk of a team giving up a lot of picks for Garoppolo and not be able to sign him long term, then he returns to the Patriots as a free agent and they get him and the picks.
Either way, I would not give up a 1st and a 4th for him. What I listed above is about all I would be willing to offer. If the Patriots want more, they can keep him and hope he doesn’t leave them in free agency and they get nothing but a 3rd round compensatory pick.
There was another analysis published just yesterday by a Jason Lisk (managing editor of The Big Lead) who took a very different approach than I did in evaluating Garoppolo’s value. Interesting, he came to a very similar conclusion – that Garoppolo is currently worth about the same as or better than a top 5 pick in the draft (and that’s in a decent draft year, not next year which has been widely panned as a bad year for QBs). It’s worth a read: link to thebiglead.com
Usually; there have been a couple of exception years in there. But that’s what draft day trades are all about in NE aren’t they, Francisco? 🙂
AJ McCarren is available for a second and fourth imho he’s charismatic players feed off that…