HEADLINES

Month: November 2024

Offseason Outlook: Jacksonville Jaguars

February 22nd, 2015 at 3:29pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Paul Posluszny, LB: $9,500,000
  2. Marcedes Lewis, TE: $8,200,000
  3. Justin Blackmon, WR: $5,785,625
  4. Luke Joeckel, T: $5,782,254
  5. Zane Beadles, G: $5,000,000
  6. Sen’Derrick Marks, DT: $4,825,000
  7. Chris Clemons, DE: $4,750,000
  8. Blake Bortles, QB: $4,694,273
  9. Red Bryant, DE: $4,500,000
  10. Josh Scobee, K: $4,387,500

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 3 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

Ever since winning 11 games and earning a postseason berth in 2007, the Jaguars have been among the worst teams in the NFL, finishing with non-losing record just once (2010) and registering a 34-78 mark during that span. But there are reasons for optimism in Jacksonville, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where head coach Gus BradleyCecil Shorts and coordinator Bob Babich led a unit that finished 20th in DVOA (16th in weighted DVOA), and featured contributions from unheralded players like Sen’Derrick Marks and rookies such as Telvin Smith.

Most of the focus, however, was on the Jaguars’ offense, where rookie quarterback Blake Bortles led a cavalcade of other first-year players including receivers Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marquise Lee. Bortles, the third overall pick in last year’s draft, was mostly disappointing, completing just 59.8% of his passes for 2,908 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions while rating as the worst QB in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). But there’s hope that with another year of development from both Bortles and the receivers, improvements along the offensive line, and another good year from running back Denard Robinson, the offense (and the club as a whole) can take a step forward in 2015.

Key Free Agents

As a rebuilding team, the Jaguars have one the least-talented rosters in the NFL, and as such, there aren’t a ton of pending free agents who are considered must re-signs. The most notable name among the FA list is receiver Cecil Shorts, a four-year veteran who’s been among the most visible Jacksonville players in recent years. The 27-year-old is a solid possession receiver, but he had a down year in 2014, catching only 53 balls in 12 starts. He’s already been linked to other WR-needy teams such as the Browns, and given the Jaguars’ stable of young pass-catchers, I’d expect them to let Shorts walk.

On defense, former first-round pick Tyson Alualu is also headed for unrestricted free agency. He’s been something of a bust so far in his career; he only saw about 470 snaps last season and wasn’t effective when playing. The Jags have a nice rotation along the defensive line, and even if they want to add more players to their front five, they can look to free agency to do so. Alualu isn’t an integral part of the defense, so it doesn’t make sense to retain him.

Jacksonville also has a pair of linebackers — Geno Hayes and J.T. Thomas — eligible for the open market. The 27-year-old Hayes started 11 games last year, posting a +5.9 PFF grade on nearly 600 snaps. He should be re-signed on a short, low-cost deal. Thomas, on the other hand, shouldn’t return. On more than 700 snaps, the 2011 draftee registered a -14.8 PFF mark, performing especially poorly against the run.

One final free agent of note on defense is cornerback Alan Ball, who played in only seven games after tearing his biceps. He’ll be 30 years old when the season begins, but he’s a solid player, and if the club can bring him back on a modest contract, he could act as veteran insurance in a secondary filled with youngsters.

Possible Cap Casualties

Defensive lineman Chris Clemons was a high-profile signing for the Jaguars just last offeason, agreeing to a four-year deal worth $17.5MM. But despite his knowledge of Bradley’s scheme, he struggled immensely in 2014, grading as the second-worst 4-3 DE in the league per PFF. Jacksonville could save $4.75MM by releasing the 33-year-old, and wouldn’t accrue any dead money by doing so. The club might wait to see how their defensive line looks after free agency and the draft, and if they’ve made significant improvements, Clemons could be a goner.

Another veteran on defense, linebacker Paul Posluszny, missed most of the season with a pectoral injury. He’s due $9.5MM against the cap next yer, and the Jaguars could clear all but $2MM of that by cutting him. The 30-year-old is viewed as a team leader, however, and Bradley has indicated that “Poz” will return. Still, it doesn’t seem reasonable to pay an aging LB a base salary in excess of $7MM, especially one coming off an injury. Perhaps Jacksonville will ask Posluszny to take a pay cut, but if he declines, he could be cut.

On offense, tight end Marcedes Lewis is scheduled to have the second-highest cap hit on the team (behind Posluszny) at $8.2MM, an extremely high figure for a soon-to-be 31-year-old who caught just 18 balls in eight games. He’s heading into the final year of his deal — the Jaguars would clear $6.8MM by cutting him, leaving just $1.4MM in dead money. Elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball, running back Toby Gerhart is most likely on the outs. He was overtaken by Robinson, and won’t justify his $3MM cap hit.

One thing to be considered: the Jaguars have the most cap space in the league, with more than $64MM to play with. They don’t need any additional space, so if they want to retain the players listed above, they can, without it being detrimental to their financial situation. So someone like Posluszny, who might have some off-the-field or locker room value, is more likely to be retained in Jacksonville than he might be in other cities.

Positions Of Need

With that $64MM worth of cap space, the Jaguars are set up to spend on a free agent class that actually lines up well with some of their needs. Topping that list is pass-rusher, where the club could use one or even two big-name free agents. Any of the top edge guys could make sense, so I think the Jags could end up targeting one higher-priced FA and one mid-tier player. They have the financial room to sign, say, Jason Pierre-Paul, while also throwing a one-year dart on Brian Orakpo. Or they could target Jerry Hughes while also adding someone like Brandon Graham. There are any number of combinations that make sense for Jacksonville, but it must improve its pass rush.

The linebacking unit could also use an upgrade, especially if Posluszny doesn’t return. The Jaguars could take a look at David Harris, a solid veteran who could be a stabilizing presence on a young roster. Rolando McClain could also be a target — he’s had off-the-field trouble and could be facing another failed drug test, but with $64MM in cap room, perhaps he’s the kind of talented yet troubled player the Jags can afford to take a risk on. Malcolm Smith could also land in Jacksonville, as he’s familiar with Bradley from the duo’s time in Seattle.

In the back end, the Jags could use another safety to pair with Jonathan Cyprien. If the club wants a veteran leader in the secondary, Antrel Rolle could be a nice addition, but if they want to go younger, they could sign Rahim Moore away from the Broncos. Dawan Landry could also make a return to Jacksonville — he played for the team from 2011-12.

On offense, Jacksonville needs to add at least one offensive lineman. 2013 No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel has struggled since entering the league, but the team probably has to give him at least one more season to figure things out at left tackle. But on the right side, I could see the Jags targeting Bryan Bulaga, the No. 1 free agent RT available. The Packers like to retain their own free agents, but Jacksonville has the cap space to outbid them. Additionally, if the club wants to upgrade at center, Rodney Hudson would make sense if the Jags are willing to meet his reported $7MM per year demand. Alternatively, they could bring in the Raiders’ Stefan Wisniewski, who should be a bit cheaper.

The Jaguars have a good group of young pass-catchers, but given a) that they have so much money to throw around and b) the receiver class is loaded, I could see them adding a high-priced WR. They’d surely jump at the chance to add a Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, but neither of them are likely to actually hit free agency. But Randall Cobb could be the perfect addition for the Jags. He’s only 24, so he’ll still be in his prime as the rest of the team progresses. Cobb is reportedly seeking a $9MM AAV, a fee Jacksonville could easily afford.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Jaguars have a fifth-year option decision to make on receiver Justin Blackmon. The 25-year-old has only played in four games since 2013, but he’s reportedly making good progress towards reinstatement. But given his off-the-field trials, there’s no way the Jaguars can justify exercising his option.

Jacksonville doesn’t have a ton of extension candidates, but they could look to tack on a few years to Lewis’ deal in the hopes of bringing down his 2015 cap hit. It’s possible that the club will just release the tight end instead, but if they don’t, restructuring his deal could save the Jags some money.

Overall Outlook

The Jaguars need to take a step toward respectability in 2015, and a successful offseason could help the team head towards that goal. Armed with a ton of cap room and the No. 3 overall pick, Jacksonville should be able to make improvements in nearly every area it deems necessary. Adding a few pass rushers, and getting some line help and perhaps another weapon for Bortles, could be the first step in the surge toward a winning record.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 2/15/15 – 2/22/15

February 22nd, 2015 at 1:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Week In Review: 2/15/15 – 2/22/15

February 22nd, 2015 at 1:30pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The headlines from the past week at PFR:

Key News:

Extended:

Released/Waived:

Signed/Re-Signed:

Retired:

Other:

NFC Updates: Beckham, Romo, Moore

February 22nd, 2015 at 1:04pm CST by Sam Robinson

After the Pro Bowl, offensive rookie of the year Odell Beckham attempted to elevate his already-astounding rookie season in NFL lore by saying he played with two torn hamstrings. But Giants GM Jerry Reese debates the validity of Beckham’s diagnosis, Newsday’s Tom Rock reports.

“I don’t know about that,” Reese told Newsday. “I think he’s trying to be a hero. I don’t think you can play with two [tears in your] hamstring and run fast like that. … I think our doctors would’ve caught that.”

Reese said Beckham would not have been permitted to play in the Pro Bowl with two torn hamstrings.

Despite playing on the outside at 5-foot-11, 198 pounds, Beckham managed to catch 12 touchdowns in 12 games while averaging more than 100 yards per contest. The LSU product did miss the first four games of the season due to hamstring issues, re-injuring himself multiple times before making his debut in Week 5. Obviously, everyone heals at their own rate, but Beckham being able to accomplish anything resembling what he did in his debut season doesn’t depict a torn hamstring. Seahawks defensive tackle Brandon Mebane tore his hamstring in November and missed the rest of last season. Then-Buccaneers wideout Mike Williams tore his in October 2013 and missed the rest of that campaign.

If Reese’s judgment is closer to correct than Beckham’s, the slight hit to the young receiver’s credibility will be offset by a healthier superstar in a corps dealing with a rehabilitating Victor Cruz (knee).

  • Cowboys owner Jerry Jones provided an expanded indication to how long Tony Romo‘s time leading the franchise will be, according to the DallasCowboys.com. Despite Romo entering his age-35 season, Jones is planning moves around the thought his quarterback will play until the end of the decade. “I feel very comfortable … with a five-year time frame,” Jones said via the team website. “When I say comfortable: I’m ready to make decisions based on him being our quarterback that far into the future.” Last year’s leader in QBR, Romo is now the league’s fifth-oldest starting quarterback, behind Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Carson Palmer.
  • Jones also told the Cowboys site Romo he’s open to restructuring Romo’s contract, which has a $27MM cap hit this season. It more than doubles the Cowboys’ second-highest figure of left tackle Tyron Smith. “We haven’t ruled it out,” Jones told DallasCowboys.com about the possibility of restructuring. “When we did his contract, we thought at some point and time that we would be going to it.”
  • A much younger quarterback won’t be offered a restricted free agent tender, putting his future in question. But Kellen Moore may have a chance to return to the Lions and be their backup quarterback, GM Martin Mayhew told the Detroit Free Press’ Dave Birkett. Veteran Dan Orlovsky is a free agent, and Moore, a 25-year-old undrafted free agent out of Boise State in 2012, completed 68.6% of his preseason passes in 2014.

AFC Notes: McPhee, Revis, Johnson

February 22nd, 2015 at 12:02pm CST by Sam Robinson

Teams have scoured the Ravens‘ depth chart in recent years to bolster their own defenses, and Pernell McPhee is probably the latest Baltimore-created free agent that will morph from part-time Ravens cog to full-time starter elsewhere, writes Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun.

Paul Kruger, Arthur Jones and Dannell Ellerbe cashed in their mostly situational success with the Ravens for lucrative deals with the Browns, Colts and Dolphins, respectively. A fifth-round pick in 2011, McPhee grew immensely this season behind Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs, collecting 7 1/2 sacks for a fearsome Ravens pass pursuit that nearly lifted the team to its third AFC title game in four years. But with Dumervil and Suggs still on the books for next year as Baltimore’s seventh- and ninth-highest cap figures, respectively, McPhee probably finds a much better fortune elsewhere. The Ravens possess just $5.7MM in cap space, according to OverTheCap.

In the mold of Broncos part-time defensive end Malik Jackson, McPhee earned rave reviews from the analytics crowd even if the take-notice all-22 tape didn’t produce a starting job. While Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ third-best 4-3 defensive end last season in just 578 snaps, McPhee was even better, garnering the second-best 3-4 outside linebacker grade (subscription required) — ahead of Suggs (fourth) and Dumervil (sixth) — while playing only 540. McPhee charted 64 quarterback pressures and at 6-foot-3, 280 pounds, will give a team the option of playing him at multiple positions as the Ravens did.

CBSSports’ Pete Prisco ranks the 26-year-old backup 10th overall on his top-50 free agent board, behind only Justin Houston among linebackers.

  • Fellow Ravens free agent Torrey Smith will have options next month, and CSNBaltimore.com’s Clifton Brown examines where the might go if he leaves the mid-Atlantic region for the first time. Brown lists the Browns, Panthers and Seahawks as potential destinations. A Virginia native who emerged as one of the NFL’s best deep threats out of Maryland, Smith just turned 26. But he’s coming off his worst season as a pro with just 49 catches for 767 yards. Those numbers are nearly 500 yards off his career-best 2013 total, but his value could increase if/when Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Randall Cobb are franchise-tagged.
  • The Ravens’ decisions aren’t as high-profile as what the Patriots are staring at, however, and the Boston Herald’s Karen Guregian writes the duo of Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty are irreplaceable in this market or in the draft. Regaining his first-team All-Pro status after two essentially lost years, Revis, should the Patriots pick up his team option, would carry a $25MM cap number team option for this season. New England presumably won’t pay that, as Pro Football Rumors examined this month. The franchise tag for McCourty will be around $9.6MM, but the Super Bowl champions are more than $2MM over the cap, making the notion of retaining both of these standouts less likely.
  • Coming off his worst season in which he played at least 15 games, Andre Johnson is slated to earn $10.5MM in base salary next season with a cap figure ($16.1MM) that’s not commensurate with his performance: 936 yards, three TDs. The Texans wideout will be 34 in July and stuck again in a murky quarterback situation, prompting the Houston Chronicle’s Randy Harvey to suggest the Texans should liberate Johnson from this scenario.

Broncos Notes: Knighton, Moore, Thomas

February 22nd, 2015 at 10:40am CST by Sam Robinson

One of the few free agent groups housing multiple potential superstars, the Broncos face a choice they largely had in mind when they allowed a less-talented contract-year contingent to depart en masse last year.

Beyond ensuring Demaryius Thomas returns, which GM John Elway has already done, a key question in Denver: who else to retain, writes The Denver Post’s Mike Klis. The longtime Broncos reporter identified nine positions of need for the Broncos this offseason, and shed some light on which of the nine free agent starters he expects back in Denver.

Klis paints a reality where the Broncos lose both Terrance Knighton and Julius Thomas, which would allow Denver to add more outside free agents and perhaps ink some of their lower-tier free agent starters but leave gaping voids. Knighton’s price tag may now be too high for the Broncos ($28.5MM of cap space, listed at OverTheCap). Knighton’s been vocal on his preference to return to his post on the Denver defensive interior, but beyond Ndamukong Suh, there isn’t a more proven option in his prime than the 28-year-old run-stuffer — the 12th- and ninth-best defensive tackle the past two years, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required) — on the market. Sylvester Williams, the Broncos’ top in-house option at nose in their new 3-4 set, was one of the worst interior performers PFF graded last year.

Adding Jordan Cameron or former Gary Kubiak disciple Owen Daniels, who’s started for the Broncos’ new coach with the Texans and Ravens the past nine years, but neither offers the red zone security than does Julius Thomas (24 touchdown catches in the past two years). Klis also expects Denver to draft a tight end.

The Broncos also want former second-round pick and three-year full-time starter Rahim Moore back, but at a hometown price. With T.J. Ward, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib all making top-20 per-year money in the starting secondary, the Broncos would be cash-poor at areas of greater need if they re-signed Moore at or near his asking price.

Other items of note from Klis:

  • The Broncos will bring in a fullback for the first time since briefly using Chris Gronkowski in 2012. Veteran starters Jerome Felton and Henry Hynoski as possible space-clearers in Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme are available.
  • Orlando Franklin, a four-year starter at either right tackle or left guard, will probably join Julius Thomas as high-paid players on other teams after a productive season inside.
  • Rookie sixth-round center Matt Paradis could be a cheap in-house option to replace free agent 32-year-old Will Montgomery.

In other news across the Broncos’ free agent board …

  • Columnist Woody Paige listed a blueprint of how Elway can fix the possible mass exodus of Denver-honed talent. Most notably, Paige calls for the addition of Cardinals noseguard Dan Williams, who was just two slots behind Knighton on PFF’s aforementioned DT grades, has experience in a 3-4 set and won’t be as expensive. Top-tier free agents Bryan Bulaga and Devin McCourty are also mentioned as options, but adding either of those two probably come at a cost of abandoning any plans to retain their own big-name FAs.
  • Benjamin Hochman and Mark Kiszla of The Post debate whether Virgil Green, also a free agent, can replace Julius Thomas while second-guessing the market’s top tight end’s negotiating strategy after turning down a reported $8MM per year. Hochman does not expect Thomas to earn that this year, although Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph make $7MM-plus per season, so it might not be out of the question for Thomas to draw that next month.

Free Agency Links: Giants, Poe, Clay

February 22nd, 2015 at 9:20am CST by Sam Robinson

Despite landing one of the marquee receivers with 2014 first-rounder Odell Beckham, Giants GM Jerry Reese intends to invest further in that spot this offseason.

“We’ll upgrade receiver,” Reese told Connor Orr of NFL.com on a decision that has more to do with slot bastion Victor Cruz, who suffered a ruptured patellar tendon midway through last season. Cruz is signed through 2018 and carries an $8.2MM cap number — the second-highest figure on the team behind Eli Manning, according to OverTheCap — as by far the Giants’ highest-paid receiver but regaining his top form after a gruesome ailment isn’t a lock. Beckham and Rueben Randle remain on their rookie deals.

Cruz hasn’t come close to replicating his 1,500-yard 2011 season, but the Giants have yet to see him team up much with Beckham, as the two played just one full game together last season. Although this is the team that took Jason Pierre-Paul in 2011 with Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck on their roster at the time, seeing the Giants go receiver at No. 8 overall or allocate significant funds to the spot via free agency would surprise, considering their other needs.

  • Occupying one of the tightest salary cap situations with less than $5MM of room (OverTheCap), the Chiefs have a slew of decisions to make to become active in this season’s free agent market. But one they must exercise by May 3 is whether to pick up their fifth-year option on nose tackle Dontari Poe, their Pro Bowl nose tackle, and GM John Dorsey is putting that decision on the back burner, writes the Kansas City Star’s Terez A. Paylor. If Kansas City picks up this option, Poe’s salary in 2016 will be an average of the league’s DTs paid between third- and 25th-most at the position. Poe’s been a regular who’s played high snap counts in the middle of the Chiefs’ defense since being selected in the first round of the 2012 draft, but their decision isn’t open and shut considering the statuses of high-priced players Tamba Hali, Dwayne Bowe and Eric Berry, who saw his fifth-year option picked up last spring. Poe graded out as the 11th-best defensive tackle in a breakout 2013 season, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), but didn’t crack the site’s top 40 in his other two seasons.
  • The Bills were probably going to take current Lions tight end Eric Ebron before trading up for Sammy Watkins last May and may not deviate from a tight end-based plan this time around, writes Vic Carucci of the Buffalo News. Carucci picks out Charles Clay, one of the top free agents at the position this offseason after being a steady performer with the Dolphins the past two years, as a possible upgrade on the Scott Chandler-led corps. Clay’s ability to work as a fullback in Rex Ryan‘s offense would be key here, Carucci said. The Bills haven’t had much of note, receiving-wise, at this spot in the modern era after deploying the likes of Chandler, Robert Royal and Jay Riemersma over the past 15 years.
  • Clay, who caught 58 and 69 passes the past two years, respectively, may not be a fit for the Super Bowl champion Patriots, tweets the Boston Herald’s Jeff Howe, however. Clay’s price may be out of the range of a team that employs the second-highest-paid player, by seasonal value, in Rob Gronkowski.

Vikings Don’t Want To Trade Adrian Peterson

February 21st, 2015 at 10:33pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Vikings have no intention of trading embattled running back Adrian Peterson, according to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link), who reports that Peterson wants to play for the Cowboys. Minnesota is aware of Peterson’s wishes, says Cole, but they don’t plan on honoring his request.

Vikings management has made it clear that they want Peterson to return to the club in 2015, so they’ve clearly considered the potential backlash that would be associated with welcoming him back to the field (and decided it’s a worthwhile risk). Still, Peterson has indicated he’d be “uneasy” about returning to Minnesota because he feels the team wasn’t behind him during his recent ordeal. The 29-year-old Peterson is currently suspended until at least April 15.

It’s a fair question as to whether the Vikings want Peterson back if he won’t accept a pay cut — he’s currently scheduled to count $15.4MM against Minnesota’s cap next year, the highest RB cap figure by more than $4MM. I examined Peterson’s future with the team, including how the running back could exert his leverage over the club’s management, earlier tonight in the Vikings’ Offseason Outlook.

Panthers, Cam Newton Begin Extension Talks

February 21st, 2015 at 10:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Panthers were scheduled to meet with the representatives for quarterback Cam Newton at the combine in Indianapolis today, writes Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer, and the two sides are expected to open talks on a contract extension. Newton is under contract for 2015 via his fifth-year option, which will pay him a base salary of $14.67MM.

According to Person, Newton isn’t in a hurry to get a long-term deal hammered out. Instead, the 25-year-old would prefer to wait for Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson to sign extensions, presumably setting the market (and ceiling) for his own contract. Luck is expected to receive an annual average value nearing $25MM, while recent reports have suggested that Wilson could garner a fully guaranteed contract, or something close to it. As Person writes, Newton would probably fall within the $20MM per year range, with a contract comparable to Joe Flacco or Tony Romo.

After Luck and Wilson ink their extensions, Newton will hear Carolina’s offer, and then decide if he’d like to remain with the club for the foreseeable future, says Person. Newton, the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, has made it clear that he isn’t interested in a Colin Kaepernick-like contract structure — the 49ers QB accepted a deal with a hefty total value but little guaranteed money. The Panthers could opt to place the franchise tag on Newton to retain him in 2016, but the one-year cap hit to keep a quarterback is prohibitive.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Vikings

February 21st, 2015 at 9:26pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Adrian Peterson, RB: $15,400,000
  2. Greg Jennings, WR: $11,000,000
  3. Chad Greenway, LB: $8,800,000
  4. Everson Griffen, DE: $8,200,000
  5. Phil Loadholt, T: $6,750,000
  6. Kyle Rudolph, TE: $6,550,000
  7. Matt Kalil, T: $6,290,644
  8. John Sullivan, C: $5,750,000
  9. Brian Robison, DE: $5,650,000
  10. Matt Cassel, QB: $4,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 11 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

Employing both a first-time head coach and rookie quarterback, the Vikings finished with a 7-9 record, showing respectable improvement on all fronts and looking like a club that’s set up well for the future. But most of that development went unnoticed, at least on a national level, due to the off-the-field trials of veteran running back Adrian Peterson, who was active for only one game following a child abuse incident. AP’s future in Minnesota will be a key offeseason storyline that we’ll delve into below, but the Vikings’ quietly successful 2014 deserves a quick rehashing.Adrian Peterson

No. 32 overall pick Teddy Bridgewater was unquestionably a bright spot last season — after a disappointing pre-draft process caused him to fall in the draft, the former Louisville Cardinal started 12 games (winning six), completing 64.4% of his passes for 2,919 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, performing much better than fellow first-round QBs Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel. First-year running back Jerick McKinnon was also impressive, rushing for more than 500 yards in six starts, and catching 27 passes out of the backfield. Under new coordinator Norv Turner, Minnesota’s offense finished 22nd in DVOA, but placed 16th in weighted DVOA, meaning the unit got better as the season progressed.

The Vikings’ defense was a little less impressive (finishing 23rd in wDVOA), but under Zimmer and new coordinator George Edwards, the pieces are in place. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, and safety Harrison Smith all blossomed in ’14, while defensive end Everson Griffen showed continued success. Perhaps most impressive, rookie edge defender Anthony Barr had an excellent showing in Minnesota’s 4-3 defense, despite pre-draft concerns about scheme fit.

Adrian Peterson

The most pressing question facing the Vikings is the future of Peterson, the team’s most high-profile player and one of the more talented running backs in the league. While facing child abuse allegations, Peterson was originally deactivated and then placed on the commissioner’s list, ultimately missing 15 games. He’s currently suspended through at least April 15, though he is fighting that ban.

The Vikings, Zimmer, and GM Rick Spielman have been clear that they want Peterson back, so it appears that management is willing to deal with any sort of public relations backlash that comes with allowing Peterson to return. So the more important issue, then, becomes Peterson’s contract, which is no longer tenable. The 2012 NFL MVP will be 30 years old when the season begins, and his deal calls for him to count $15.4MM against Minnesota’s cap. His $14.38MM average annual value is more than $5MM greater than the second-highest paid running back (LeSean McCoy).

Releasing Peterson would leave the Vikings with just $2.4MM in dead money, clearing $13MM in the process. The Vikings could conceivably ask Peterson to take a pay cut, but Peterson holds all the leverage. He’s said he’s “uneasy” about returning to Minnesota, so if he prefers to find a fresh start with a different team, he could simply decline to accept a pay reduction, forcing the Vikings’ hand. At that point, Spielman & Co. would be either be forced to a) keep Peterson at his current salary b) release him, making him a free agent (which might be what he wants) or c) trade him.

The final option is perhaps the most interesting, as it’s unclear what kind of compensation the Vikings could expect to receive for Peterson. He’s unquestionably talented, but he is aging and he just spent an entire year off the football field. Any acquiring team would probably want to restructure Peterson’s contract, as well. The Cowboys have been linked to Peterson in the event that they don’t re-sign DeMarco Murray, but more teams could enter the fray.

Key Free Agents

The Vikings don’t have many impact players heading for unrestricted free agency — instead, most of the club’s pending FAs are role players who saw limited snaps in 2014. One such player is linebacker Jasper Brinkley, a 29-year-old who saw 471 snaps in 2014. He graded out well per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), especially against the run, where he posted a +7.9 mark. Brinkley is something of a one-dimensional player, however, with rush defense being the one area in which he excels. As Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote on Thursday, Zimmer has indicated the team would like to find a three-down middle linebacker. It’s just my speculation, but Audie Cole could fill that role in 2015 if Vikings don’t upgrade through the draft. Either way, Brinkley probably won’t be retained.

A pair of offensive lineman — Joe Berger and Vlad Ducasse — are also eligible for free agency next month. Both saw playing time at guard during various points in the season while filling in for Charlie Johnson and Brandon Fusco, with Berger seeing more snaps than Ducasse (626 to 417). Berger was the better player per PFF, posting a +3.3 grade to Ducasse’s -14.1 mark. Fusco will presumably be back at right guard in 2015, but Berger could conceivably be re-signed to compete for playing time at left guard with Charlie Johnson, who struggled last season. Ducasse, on the other hand, shouldn’t be brought back, and the former second-round pick’s time in the NFL might be coming to an end.

In Tom Johnson and Corey Wootton, the Vikings also have a defensive line duo up for free agency. In his first season in Minnesota, the 30-year-old Johnson had a nice season, registering a +5.2 PFF grade on 444 snaps while playing behind Floyd and Linval Joseph. He’s still young enough that he could find a starting position somewhere else, but given that Zimmer likes a rotation along the defensive line, the Vikes could look to re-sign Johnson to maintain their depth at the position. Wootton, 27, struggled last year and it probably makes sense for the Vikings to move on.

Fullback Jerome Felton is also a free agent after opting out of his contract earlier this year. He’s an excellent player, but one of the primary reasons he opted out of his deal was a reduction of playing time in Turner’s offense, so he’ll presumably look for greener pastures.

Potential Cap Casualties

Peterson isn’t the only player who might not return to Minnesota if a contract restructure can’t be agreed upon. Longtime Vikings linebacker Chad Greenway, the club’s first-round selection in 2006, is now 32 years old. He missed four games with injuries, and when he did play, he wasn’t effective, grading as the league’s third-worst 4-3 outside linebacker per PFF. Set to count $8.8MM against the cap in 2015, Greenway will probably have to accept a pay cut to remain on the roster, something he’s indicated he’s willing to do (he took at $1MM pay reduction before last season).

Elsewhere on the defense, end Brian Robison is also a candidate for release. Playing opposite Griffen, the 31-year-old Robison accrued 4.5 sacks while starting all 16 games, but rated as the just the No. 52 4-3 DE among 59 qualifiers per PFF. He’s scheduled to count $5.65MM against the cap next year, and given that the Vikings could save $2.65MM by releasing him, perhaps the club will decide to turn the position over to a younger player.

On offense, veteran receiver Greg Jennings could be on the chopping block, or at the very least, be asked to take a pay cut. The 31-year-old has largely been a disappointment since joining the Vikings, averaging just 64 receptions for 773 yards over the past two seasons. Jennings’ 2015 cap figure is the second-highest on the team, behind only Peterson, as he’s due an $8.9MM base salary and will count $11MM against the cap. Minnesota could create $5MM of cap space by cutting him.

Matt Cassel, who entered 2014 as the starting quarterback before succumbing to injuries, will count $4.75MM next season if he’s not released. It’s not an absurd number for a backup quarterback, but I’d guess the Vikings can find a better way to spend that money. Johnson could also be released, especially if the Vikes re-sign Berger and decide he can start at left guard.

Positions Of Need

For a team that finished 7-9, the Viking don’t have a lot of need areas. One position group that could be improved is offensive line, but because the main culprit, left tackle Matt Kalil, is a former top-three draft pick and will remain a starter for at least one more season, there isn’t much the Vikings can do. Left guard could use an infusion of talent, as Johnson is a below-average player. Minnesota could take a look at Clint Boling, whom Zimmer knows from their time in Cincinnati, or Orlando Franklin, who would cost quite a bit more. If the Lions let Rob Sims, a solid player, get away, the Vikes could make a play for him, as well.

Linebacker could be another area that could be attacked in free agency. I don’t think Greenway will be back, and even if he is, his role could be greatly reduced, so Minnesota could look to upgrade at outside linebacker. Fortunately, 4-3 OLBs aren’t too costly, so the Vikings shouldn’t have to expend too much of their $18.07MM worth of cap space. Malcolm Smith could be looking for a bigger role after acting as the fourth linebacker for the Seahawks, and if he doesn’t follow Dan Quinn to Atlanta, he could be a fit for Minnesota. Sean Weatherspoon is injury-prone and missed the entire 2014 season, but he could be a nice rebound candidate.

If the Vikings see Captain Munnerlyn as primarily a slot corner, the club could look to add another CB to pair with Rhodes, as Ben Goessling of ESPN.com suggested last month. Terence Newman thrived under Zimmer in Cincinnati, but the former is now 37 years old and can’t be counted on as a reliable starter. If the Vikings are willing to pay the price, someone like Brandon Flowers could be a nice addition — he’d give Minnesota one of the best corner groups in the league. But more likely, the Vikes will set their sights lower and target the Buster Skrines of the world.

Finally, the Vikings could opt to add talent at wide receiver, where Jennings is a release candidate and Cordarrelle Patterson continues to be disappointing. Charles Johnson looks the club’s No. 1 pass-catcher, so it wouldn’t be out of the question for Minnesota to bring in another WR. I could see them trying to buy low on someone like Michael Crabtree, or perhaps bring in someone like Leonard Hankerson, who might be able to thrive in a larger role.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

Besides Peterson, Kalil might be the biggest question mark on the Vikings’ roster. The third overall pick in 2012, Kalil was great during his rookie season, grading as PFF’s No. 21 tackle among 81 qualifiers. But he fell to No. 51 in ’13, and dropped all the way to No. 81 last season. Minnesota must decide on Kalil’s fifth-year option in the coming months, and I don’t see how they can exercise it given Kalil’s current level of play.

On the other hand, Harrison Smith, the team’s other 2012 first-round pick, will definitely see his fifth-year option picked up, as he’s among the league’s best at his position. He’s also in line for a contract extension. Smith just turned 26, and he could be looking at a deal similar to that of Eric Weddle, with near $20MM guaranteed.

Overall Outlook

The Vikings are a team on the upswing, and even if Peterson doesn’t return, continued progression by Bridgewater and the defense could push the club above .500. If Peterson does come back to the Twin Cities, and performs at something close to his prior level, the playoffs aren’t out of the question. Of course, the Vikes play in a tough division, as both the Packers and the Lions both earned postseason berths in 2014. But with what looks like a franchise QB in place, the Vikings are surely a team to watch.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Load More Posts