Christmas Day’s Broncos-Rams matchup will pit two of the league’s most disappointing teams against one another, and the Seahawks and Lions will have a vested interest in this contest. The loser of this game will give one of the latter teams — via the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trades — a better chance of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft.
At 1-12-1, the Texans are cruising home. The Bears are on their heels, potentially set to become the team that selects the 2023 draft’s first non-quarterback. But eight four- or five-win teams reside behind these two, providing some intrigue for fanbases whose squads are not moving toward the playoffs.
The NFC South’s plunge toward becoming perhaps the worst division in NFL history carries draft stakes as well. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers each have five wins, and Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia (via the Saints’ pre-draft trade this year) would see those picks land in the top 10 as of now. The division-leading Buccaneers would see their draft slot check in no higher than 19th. Should one of Tampa Bay’s challengers vault the current first-place team in the standings, the Bucs would see their 2023 first-round slot rise considerably.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 16:
- Houston Texans: 1-12-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-11
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-10
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-9-1
- Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
- Carolina Panthers: 5-9
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8
- Green Bay Packers: 6-8
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
- New England Patriots: 7-7
- New York Jets: 7-7
- Detroit Lions: 7-7
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8
- Tennessee Titans: 7-7
- Washington Commanders: 7-6-1
- Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
- New York Giants: 8-5-1
- Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
- Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
- Cincinnati Bengals: 10-4
- Kansas City Chiefs: 11-3
- Minnesota Vikings: 11-3
- Buffalo Bills: 11-3
- Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice.