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Updated 2023 NFL Draft Order

Christmas Day’s Broncos-Rams matchup will pit two of the league’s most disappointing teams against one another, and the Seahawks and Lions will have a vested interest in this contest. The loser of this game will give one of the latter teams — via the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trades — a better chance of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft.

At 1-12-1, the Texans are cruising home. The Bears are on their heels, potentially set to become the team that selects the 2023 draft’s first non-quarterback. But eight four- or five-win teams reside behind these two, providing some intrigue for fanbases whose squads are not moving toward the playoffs.

The NFC South’s plunge toward becoming perhaps the worst division in NFL history carries draft stakes as well. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers each have five wins, and Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia (via the Saints’ pre-draft trade this year) would see those picks land in the top 10 as of now. The division-leading Buccaneers would see their draft slot check in no higher than 19th. Should one of Tampa Bay’s challengers vault the current first-place team in the standings, the Bucs would see their 2023 first-round slot rise considerably.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 16:

  1. Houston Texans: 1-12-1
  2. Chicago Bears: 3-11
  3. Detroit Lions (via Rams)
  4. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
  5. Arizona Cardinals: 4-10
  6. Indianapolis Colts: 4-9-1
  7. Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
  8. Carolina Panthers: 5-9
  9. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
  10. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
  11. Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
  12. Houston Texans (via Browns)
  13. Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8
  14. Green Bay Packers: 6-8
  15. Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
  16. New England Patriots: 7-7
  17. New York Jets: 7-7
  18. Detroit Lions: 7-7
  19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8
  20. Tennessee Titans: 7-7
  21. Washington Commanders: 7-6-1
  22. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
  23. New York Giants: 8-5-1
  24. Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
  25. Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
  26. Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
  27. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-4
  28. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-3
  29. Minnesota Vikings: 11-3
  30. Buffalo Bills: 11-3
  31. Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1

Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom BradySean Payton tampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice.

Exclusive QB Franchise Tag Projected To Eclipse $45MM

When the Cowboys placed the exclusive franchise tag on Dak Prescott in 2020, it cost them $31.4MM. If/when the Ravens proceed down this path with Lamar Jackson next year, it will be considerably more expensive.

Although teams have not received projections on next year’s cap yet, the NFL’s 2023 salary ceiling is on track to come in north of $220MM. That will bump the exclusive quarterback tag north of $45MM. Noting a handful of teams are using a $225MM projection for next year’s cap, CBS Sports’ Joel Corry pegs the exclusive QB tag at $45.25MM. No player has ever gone through a season attached to a cap number north of $45MM. Jackson and the Browns’ Deshaun Watson — as of now set to count $54.9MM on Cleveland’s 2023 payroll — would be poised to be the first.

Here are the projected non-exclusive franchise tag amounts for 2023, according to Corry:

  • Quarterback: $32.45MM
  • Running back: $10.1MM
  • Wide receiver: $19.76MM
  • Tight end: $11.36MM
  • Offensive line: $18.26MM
  • Defensive end: $19.74MM
  • Defensive tackle: $18.95MM
  • Linebacker: $20.95MM
  • Cornerback: $18.16MM
  • Safety: $14.47MM
  • Kicker/punter: $5.39MM

An exclusive tag prevents other teams from negotiating with the tagged player. Were the Ravens to place the non-exclusive tag on Jackson, other teams could come in with offer sheets and attempt to pry the former MVP away. Of course, it would cost the signing team two first-rounders if the Ravens passed on matching a Jackson offer sheet after a five-day period.

While the non-exclusive quarterback tag is set to rise past $30MM, the other number that jumps out here is the running back price. That will be a viable fallback option for teams like the Giants (Saquon Barkley) and Raiders (Josh Jacobs). While Barkley is playing out his fifth-year option, the Raiders passed on an $8MM Jacobs 2023 salary. The NFL’s rushing leader, Jacobs will certainly enter 2023 as a tag candidate. The Giants had negotiated with Barkley during their bye week this year, but the sides were not believed to be close on terms. With the team hoping to keep the former No. 2 overall pick, it seems likely — even with Daniel Jones unsigned as well — this low-cost tag will be utilized.

These prices also do not apply to Jessie Bates, Orlando Brown Jr., Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki. Should any of these players be tagged again, their tag figures would be 120% of their 2022 salaries. Players who are not attached to rookie contracts could also be tied to higher tag figures in 2023. Both Allen Robinson and A.J. Green collected more on the tag than their wideout peers in recent years, due to 120% of their previous year’s salary being worth more than the tag price. This scenario would be in play again if teams were keen on keeping certain vets off the market.

P Matt Araiza Will Not Be Charged In Connection With Alleged Gang Rape

The San Diego County District Attorney’s Office is not charging former Bills punter Matt Araiza in connection with an alleged gang rape, Alex Riggins of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (on Twitter).

Araiza was named in a civil lawsuit that accused he and two other San Diego State football players of raping a then-17-year-old girl in October 2021. The accusation led to the Bills cutting Araiza in August. Buffalo drafted Araiza, 22, in this year’s sixth round. None of the other players implicated in the suit will be charged, according to the Union-Tribune’s Lyndsay Winkley and Teri Figueroa.

The civil suit alleges Araiza had sex with the accuser at an off-campus party and brought her into a bedroom where “a group” of men raped her. The teen said she told friends immediately after she had been raped, and she reported it to the San Diego Police Department the next day. The case went to prosecutors for review in August, but Wednesday’s development will not lead to charges.

The DA’s office indicated it is “clear the evidence does not support the filing of criminal charges and there is no path to a potential criminal conviction.” The accuser’s attorney said (via The Athletic’s Tim Graham, on Twitter) the victim’s intoxication on the night of the alleged rape influenced the police’s view of the case. Araiza’s attorney called the civil suit a shakedown in August.

Araiza won the Ray Guy award as the top Division I-FBS punter last season and was drafted 180th overall. The Bills waived him two days after the civil suit surfaced. Buffalo has used Sam Martin, whom Denver released after training camp, as its punter this season.

Odell Beckham Jr. Not Planning To Work Out For Giants, Bills, Cowboys

Months in the making, Odell Beckham Jr.‘s free agency tour will begin Thursday with a Giants visit. Friday, Beckham will depart for Buffalo, with perhaps his most pivotal meeting — with Dallas, which is viewed as the favorite — set for Monday.

These visits will not involve any Beckham workouts, according to the New York Post’s Paul Schwartz, who notes the eight-year veteran wide receiver is not planning to audition for any of the three teams he will visit. While marquee free agents visiting teams and not working out is nothing new, Beckham’s plan will place a greater emphasis on the interested teams’ medical evaluations.

Giants doctors will examine Beckham, who has twice torn his left ACL since October 2020, and this routine will surely continue in Buffalo and Dallas over the next few days. The Giants’ medical evaluation will include an MRI, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets.

Some skepticism regarding Beckham’s capabilities has emerged around the league recently, but the standout pass catcher is believed to have been cleared for work in November. Early December once resided on the latter end of OBJ’s projected return timetable, but his Rams contributions have still convinced teams to wait late into this season.

Beckham, 30, will meet with new Giants power brokers Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll, along with staffers who were with the Giants during his five-season New York stay, and reconnect with John Mara. More serious discussions will be expected to commence Friday, Schwartz adds.

The Giants gave Beckham a five-year, $90MM extension just before the 2018 season began, and while that year did include a bounce back from a lost 2017 season, OBJ’s 1,052-yard campaign also happened during a season in which he criticized Eli Manning in a TV interview. The then-Dave Gettleman-led Giants regime traded Beckham to the Browns in March 2019. Among the players exchanged in that deal, only Dexter Lawrence remains with one of those teams.

As for Beckham’s fit with the Schoen-Daboll Giants, he would slide in as a potentially lethal X-factor — depending on his readiness and grasp of Daboll’s system — and help a Giants team that has seen its receiver plan change drastically from September. Ex-Beckham teammate Sterling Shepard is out for the season; so is second-round pick Wan’Dale Robinson. Kadarius Toney is now in Kansas City, and Kenny Golladay‘s $18MM-per-year pact has produced next to nothing. Months-long trade candidate Darius Slayton, who was drafted a month after the OBJ trade, is now Daniel Jones‘ No. 1 target.

Jones and Beckham never played together, but if OBJ returns to the Big Apple, he would be a critical aid to the fourth-year quarterback and the team’s quest to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. That season marks Beckham’s most recent Pro Bowl year. Despite injuries and a poor Cleveland fit, he has remained on the star tier. Teams’ offers during this unique free agency derby will be telling. Beckham is believed to be seeking a multiyear commitment.

Sam Darnold To Remain Panthers’ Starter In Week 14

Sam Darnold made his season debut during yesterday’s win over the Broncos, serving as the third different option under center for the Panthers in 2022. His tenure back in the No. 1 role will not be a one-off, however.

Interim head coach Steve Wilks said on Sunday that Darnold will get the nod once again in Week 14 when Carolina plays Seattle following their bye. The announcement comes after Wilks had indicated his intention to have him see game action in 2022, which was confirmed with the Week 12 start. The team’s No. 1 option for most of last season, Darnold was long seen as a replacement candidate this past offseason.

To little surprise, the team brought in Baker Mayfield from the Browns through a trade the team had been eyeing well before it was consummated in July. It was the former No. 1 overall pick who won out Carolina’s training camp competition, but he struggled mightily before going down with a high ankle sprain. With Darnold having suffered the same injury in the preseason and being unavailable, Carolina turned to P.J. Walker as their starter for a stretch.

Mayfield was thrust back into the No. 1 role during Week 11, a 13-3 loss to the Ravens during which he threw a pair of late interceptions. Darnold’s return to health allowed him to guide the team’s offense yesterday, though, and help lead them to a 23-10 win. The USC product competed just 11 passes for 164 yards and one touchdown, but generated a passer rating of 103.8 and will have the opportunity to build on that performance this week.

With both Darnold and fellow 2018 draftee Mayfield pending free agents, the closing weeks of the season will be highly important for both of them from a financial perspective. Solid performances from the former could help erase the struggles of the past in Charlotte (and help earn him at least consideration for a deal to compete with injured rookie Matt Corral for a 2023 roster spot), which could also have an effect on the sidelines. With Wilks reportedly making a case to remain the team’s permanent HC, plenty will be at stake as the calendar flips to December despite the Panthers’ 4-8 record.

Coaching Rumors: Colts, Broncos, Reich

Jeff Saturday is now overseeing a staff full of Frank Reich assistants, but the surprising Colts HC hire is not currently looking to add any new personnel to his staff for this audition. Rumors of Jim Irsay‘s Saturday hire frustrating current Colts staffers surfaced last week, and while Saturday bucking the recent trend by seeing his interim tag turn into a full-time post would likely mean a host of new assistants in 2023, Reich’s group will be the one in place for the rest of this season.

I like the group; I like the support they give each other. They’re in clearly defined roles,” Saturday said. “And I’m happy with where they are. Bringing somebody in, trying to learn an entire process or how we’ve done things? I like where the guys are, so I don’t anticipate that. I’m not guaranteeing it, but in my head I haven’t even had a chance to get that far. I’m just trying to get Week 2 under my belt.”

Saturday stopping short of shutting down the prospect of outside staffers coming in is interesting, but considering how off the board his hire was, it would not surprise to see the new Colts HC consider bringing in some staffers while he is in charge. Here is the latest from the coaching scene:

  • Scott Milanovich confirmed recent reports he turned down an opportunity to be the Colts’ play-caller. The veteran assistant, who is in his second season as Indianapolis’ quarterbacks coach, said (via The Athletic’s Zak Keefer, on Twitter) “Ultimately, it just wasn’t the right situation, I don’t think, for me at the time and the and the team.” Milanovich called plays in the CFL and as an interim OC with the Jaguars four years ago. Both he and running backs coach Scottie Montgomery are set to be involved with game-planning going forward, but assistant QBs coach Parks Frazier will be the voice in Matt Ryan‘s helmet going forward.
  • The OC Milanovich succeeded in Jacksonville in 2018, Nathaniel Hackett continues to oversee a disappointing Broncos season. After picking up a win in London, Denver reverted to its pattern of sluggish second halves in Tennessee. Although injuries have steadily depleted Hackett’s offense, the unit is averaging a league-low 14.6 points per game and also struggled when more of its starters were healthy. Some of George Paton‘s peers are advocating for the second-year GM to be proactive with this coaching situation, per Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post, to better ensure he will stay on the job. Hackett hit the one-and-done radar stunningly early, but Paton’s status has not come up as much. Like Hackett, Paton was hired before the team’s new ownership arrived. While Paton has fared well in key aspects since taking the job in 2021, the Hackett-Russell Wilson partnership not working out has undoubtedly affected his perception.
  • Nick Sirianni spent three seasons as the Colts’ OC and worked with Frank Reich with the Chargers as well. The current Eagles HC did not shoot down the idea of Reich joining Philly’s staff, likely in a consultant-type role, via EJ Smith of the Philadelphia Inquirer. This would not only make sense for Sirianni, but Reich had a rather notable Eagles stay previously, being the OC on staff during the Birds’ Super Bowl LII-winning campaign.
  • Former Cardinals running backs coach James Saxon pleaded guilty to a domestic battery charge stemming from a May incident, according to ESPN.com’s Josh Weinfuss, who adds the longtime NFL staffer received a suspended one-year prison sentence. An Indiana judge instead gave Saxon, 56, one year of probation. The Cardinals placed Saxon on administrative leave in August; he resigned from the team last month. Saxon, who was on Kliff Kingsbury‘s staff since 2019, spent 23 years as an NFL assistant.

Latest On Saints’ QB Situation

The Saints had recently entertained the notion of making a quarterback change for the second time this season, but that move will be delayed for at least one more week. Head coach Dennis Allen confirmed on Wednesday that Andy Dalton will remain the team’s starter in Week 11.

The veteran has been in place as New Orleans’ No. 1 since Week 4, when he stepped in for an injured Jameis Winston. The latter entered the season fully recovered from his 2021 ACL tear and with a two-year deal in hand to continue where he left off last season. Back and ankle injuries have limited his availability during this campaign, however, and he struggled during his three starts.

Dalton remained atop the depth chart even after Winston was healthy enough to dress, given the team’s relative offensive success. Last month, Allen indicated that Dalton could take on the starter’s role on a full-time basis depending on his performance and Winston’s availability to recover. The 35-year-old’s first five starts saw the Saints put up no fewer than 24 points in each contest, quelling any potential controversy at the position.

In the two games which have followed, New Orleans has scored 23 total points in losses to the Ravens and Steelers. Allen endorsed Dalton in the former case, stating that he gave no consideration to a midgame QB change against Baltimore. Days ago, though, the door seemed to open to a Winston return as the Saints remain in search of a catalyst for their banged-up offense.

“[W]e haven’t been doing as well the last couple weeks,” Allen said earlier this week, via ESPN’s Katherine Terrell, on the subject of a potential quarterback swap. “So, I think we’ve gotta evaluate that. I think that’s something that we need to look at.”

Allen said today (via Terrell, on Twitter) that Winston is still not 100% healthy. More worryingly, he added that it remains unclear if the former No. 1 pick will reach full health any time soon. For at least one more game, then, it will be Dalton under center as New Orleans hosts the Rams on Sunday as a pair of struggling teams aim for their fourth win of the season.

Colts Execs Attempted To Dissuade Jim Irsay From Jeff Saturday Hire

Of the 43 interim head coaches hired this century, the Colts’ Jeff Saturday move generated by far the most attention. Saturday’s inexperience headlined last week’s NFL news cycle, and high-ranking Colts staffers aimed to convince Jim Irsay to go in a different direction.

Both GM Chris Ballard and team president Pete Ward expressed reservations about Irsay’s plan to hire Saturday, according to Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero of NFL.com. Others joined Ballard, who is in his sixth year as GM, and Ward, who has been with the Colts since before their 1984 Indianapolis move, in advising against the decision. But Irsay steadfastly pulled the trigger on Saturday, who is now 1-0 as Colts HC.

Irsay called Saturday during the Colts’ Week 9 loss to the Patriots, discussing the team’s protections. That discussion led to an offer to become Indianapolis’ interim HC. Had Saturday not accepted the job, Irsay would not have fired Frank Reich, Zak Keefer of The Athletic notes (subscription required). That points to Irsay’s conviction on the inexperienced coach while also revealing an obvious lack of desire to promote one of Reich’s assistants to the post.

[RELATED: Irsay Reaffirms Commitment To Ballard For 2023]

Some of Reich’s assistants have expressed displeasure with Irsay’s call, and it is safe to say the Colts’ staff will look considerably different next season. Following last week’s report of quarterbacks coach Scott Milanovich turning down the opportunity to call plays, Rapoport and Pelissero confirm as much and note the Colts’ play-calling offer did not include any adjustments to his current contract. Milanovich, a former Grey Cup-winning head coach, has been Indy’s QBs coach since 2021, when the team promoted Marcus Brady to replace Nick Sirianni. The Colts fired Brady earlier this season.

Milanovich and running backs coach Scottie Montgomery — each of whom having play-calling experience, though most of it coming outside the NFL — will play a big role in game-planning, Saturday said. But Parks Frazier has made the unusual leap from assistant QBs coach to play-caller.

Saturday also had the freedom to bench Sam Ehlinger and reinstall Matt Ryan as the starter, a choice Irsay does not appear to have made available for Reich. The five-year Colts HC did not back the Irsay-driven pivot to Ehlinger, and Keefer adds the players were not behind the Ryan benching as well. Despite Ryan’s nine interceptions and 11 fumbles through seven games, Keefer notes the Colts’ roster viewed the veteran as the player who gave the team its best chance to win. Recovered from his shoulder injury, Ryan received first-team reps during Colts practice last week, Keefer tweets.

The Colts did enjoy the opportunity of facing a Raiders defense that has slipped from below average — under current Colts DC Gus Bradley — in 2021 to one of the league’s worst units. Las Vegas ranks 28th in both points allowed and total defense. The Colts still entered Week 10 as underdogs, and their Saturday-Frazier-Ryan direction nevertheless led to a victory. Moving to 4-5-1, the Colts remain a fringe AFC contender — record-wise, at least — and outings like Sunday’s will provide ammunition for Irsay’s hope of Saturday sticking around beyond 2022.

No interim HC has been retained since Doug Marrone kept the Jaguars’ reins, after the team fired Bradley, in 2016. Saturday moving into position to buck this trend would add to the scrutiny engulfing the Colts, but it is safe to say traditional norms regarding interim HCs do not apply here. This is undoubtedly one of the most interesting interim stretches in modern NFL history.

TE Delanie Walker Retires After 14 Seasons

Delanie Walker has not seen the field since 2019, but today marks the official end of his career. The 38-year-old tight end has retired from the NFL after 14 seasons evenly split between the 49ers and Titans.

A 2006 sixth-round pick, Walker spent the first seven seasons of his career in San Francisco. He played an ancillary receiving role during his time in the Bay Area, though, never eclipsing 29 catches or three touchdowns in any one season there. His arrival in Tennessee as a free agent in 2013 was thus met with little fanfare relative to what he ultimately accomplished.

The Central Missouri State product’s first year as a Titan saw him set career-highs across the board in receiving, yardage and touchdown totals. He surpassed those figures during a three-year stretch from 2015-17, in which he was named a Pro Bowler each season. Across his first five campaigns in Nashville, Walker led the NFL in catches by a tight end; he ranks second in franchise history in that department with 381 receptions.

Ankle injuries derailed his final two seasons, however. Walker was limited to just eight games between 2018 and 2019. As a free agent in 2020, he drew interest from the Ravens and Patriots, but ultimately opted out of that season. He eyed a comeback last year, in which the 49ers hosted him for a potential reunion, but no deal materialized. Still, Walker looked back on his career in a positive light.

I would say it worked out better than I could have imagined,” Walker said of his time in Tennessee. “I dreamt about it, and made it come to life because I believed it would. I knew once I had the opportunity, I wasn’t going to let it get away from me. Playing in Tennessee, with the Titans, it was better than I ever dreamed of, and I can’t thank the Titans organization enough for believing in me and giving me the opportunity to do everything I was able to do. It was a dream come true.”

To no surprise, Walker is hanging up his cleats as a member of the Titans. He lamented the lost time due his numerous ankle ailments, but his NFL tenure can widely be viewed as successful given his career ascent in its second chapter.

“Playing this game, I did it for so long, I am so thankful,” he added. “Honestly, I wish I could have played more, but injuries took place and there you have it.”

NFC West Rumors: 49ers, Wilson, Rams

The 49ers were without Trent Williams on Monday, and while they won a fairly one-sided game over the Rams, it came with another tackle injury. Colton McKivitz became the latest 49er to sustain an MCL sprain. Like Elijah Mitchell and Azeez Al-Shaair, Kyle Shanahan expects his swing tackle to miss approximately eight weeks. Rookie Jaylon Moore, who replaced Williams against the Broncos while McKivitz was not at 100%, will be the next man up at left tackle.

That said, the 49ers demoted two-year right guard starter Daniel Brunskill because partly because they viewed him as an ideal swing backup. Shanahan said Brunskill will be considered for blindside fill-in duty, Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News notes (via Twitter). Brunskill, who is in his fourth 49ers season, debuted Monday after missing the first three games due to injury. The former UDFA would inject some potentially necessary experience into the mix for a 49ers team still using a mostly unseasoned group of interior O-linemen this season.

Here is the latest from the NFC West:

  • Contract issues and a steady relationship deterioration drove the Seahawks to trade Russell Wilson, but the likely Hall of Fame-bound quarterback’s willingness to run also played a role in the team deciding to move on. The Seahawks believed Wilson’s willingness to use his legs would decrease as he aged, Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times notes. Wilson, 33, averaged 5.5 carries and 30 yards per game as a Seahawk and has been one of the best running QBs in NFL history. Wilson’s 4,740 career rushing yards are fourth all time among QBs — behind only Michael Vick, Cam Newton and Randall Cunningham. Wilson rushed for 849 yards in 2014 and topped 500 four more times — most recently in 2020. But in 2021, Seattle’s starter — albeit during a season in which he missed three games due to a finger injury — only rushed for 183 yards. Although the 11th-year veteran has been effective when scrambling as a Bronco, he has been reluctant to do so. Wilson, who has expressed a desire to extend his career into his 40s, has totaled 13 carries for 51 yards this season.
  • Williams does not expect to miss too much time. Given a four- to six-week timetable, the All-Pro left tackle told CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson he is “80% sure” he will beat that four-week mark (Twitter link). Williams, 34, suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3. Beating the timetable would mean a possible return for the 49ers’ Week 7 game against the Chiefs. San Francisco could certainly use its star blocker in that game, but judging by how the team is playing it with its batch of players rehabbing MCL sprains, it would not surprise if the team exercised caution with its valuable O-line asset.
  • 49ers running backs coach Bobby Turner is back with the team after being away for several months, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. The 73-year-old assistant had been away from the team since undergoing two surgeries early this offseason. Turner has been an integral assistant for both Kyle and Mike Shanahan, being the Broncos’ running backs coach throughout the latter’s 14-year Denver stay. Turner has been with the 49ers since they hired Kyle Shanahan in 2017.
  • The Rams not only lost another interior offensive line starter Monday, when Coleman Shelton suffered a high ankle sprain, but they left San Francisco with starting safety Jordan Fuller out. The young defender is facing a two- to four-week absence to a hamstring strain, Sean McVay said.