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Community Tailgate: Sleepers And Busts

With the NFL draft rapidly approaching, there are plenty of topics and storylines to discuss, and PFR’s Community Tailgate is designed to address those stories. What’s the Community Tailgate all about? Well, it’s pretty simple. We’ll highlight one of the top talking points in the NFL. Then, in the comment section below, we want you to weigh in and let us know what you think.

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Today, we want to know two things. First, who do you think might be the biggest “bust” in Thursday’s draft? We are now all but certain that two quarterbacks, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, will be off the board after the first two picks, and while both players have the potential to be franchise-caliber signal-callers, neither are a “sure thing”–to the extent sure things exist in the draft–like Andrew Luck was when he was selected in 2012. Maybe you see one or both of Goff and Wentz as a bust waiting to happen, a la Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell.

Or perhaps you’re not as high on a player like Joey Bosa or Jalen Ramsey as many draft pundits appear to be. Ramsey is widely considered to be the best defensive back prospect to enter the draft in at least a couple of years, but maybe you see something in his footwork or relative dearth of interceptions–just three in his collegiate career–that give you pause. Or maybe you subscribe to the belief that Bosa has already hit his ceiling and will not become the dominant pass rusher that his draft stock would seem to indicate.

Predicting sleepers is an inherently more difficult exercise than predicting busts, but we’d like for you to give it a shot anyway. Can former Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller become a successful wide receiver at the next level? Will Western Kentucky’s Tyler Higbee or Southern Mississippi’s Mike Thomas make their new club’s GM look like a genius in a few months?

Let us know what you think. Give us the players you don’t believe will live up to the hype, and give us a hidden gem or two as well. You don’t need to explain your answers, of course, but it’s always encouraged.

East Notes: Wilkerson, Pats, Giants

We have known for some time that the Jets are looking to trade Muhammad Wilkerson, who is an immensely talented but also highly expensive and potentially movable asset. Wilkerson, who has not yet signed his franchise tender, is not expected to show up tomorrow for the start of New York’s voluntary offseason program, as we learned last night, and Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com does not expect him to sign the tender anytime soon.

But Cimini believes that the only way a Wilkerson trade makes sense is if the team is able to use him to land one of the top two quarterbacks in this year’s draft, Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. And now that the Rams have grabbed the No. 1 overall selection from the Titans, the only way that the Jets can assure of themselves of Wentz or Goff is if they swing a deal with the Browns, who hold the No. 2 overall pick. The Browns, who of course have a number of roster holes to fill and a good deal of cap space, may be willing to swap first-round picks with the Jets, while netting Wilkerson and a few more draft picks in the process, and then select a quarterback from the second-tier of this year’s class of signal-callers. The question, though, is whether Wilkerson would want to sign a long-term deal with the Browns, which is probably not the case, even though the Browns could meet his contractual demands.

This is just my speculation, but unless the Browns select a player other than Wentz or Goff with the No. 2 overall pick–assuming of course, that the Rams take one of the two with the No. 1 selection–then it’s hard to imagine the Jets moving Wilkerson. As Cimini writes, it does not make much sense for Gang Green to use Wilkerson as a trade chip to move up to select a player like Memphis QB Paxton Lynch, who may fall to the Jets anyway and who is not a considerably more promising prospect than, say, Michigan State’s Connor Cook.

Let’s take a look at a few more notes from the league’s east divisions:

  • As Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com writes, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has developed a “blind spot” for former Florida and current Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer and his program, and Reiss believes Belichick needs to reevaluate his reliance on Meyer. Reiss observes that Chad Jackson, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes, Aaron Hernandez, and now Dominique Easley have all produced poor results considering their draft position, and all were products of Meyer’s program.
  • Paul Schwartz of The New York Post examines what the Giants might do to address their back seven in this month’s draft, and he writes that the team would “definitely” select a corner with the No. 10 overall selection, particularly if Vernon Hargreaves III is still available–which become a little more likely after the Rams-Titans blockbuster trade–but that the No. 10 pick is a little too high for Eli Apple or Mackensie Alexander. Schwartz believes it is also too high for the only inside linebacker that could reasonably be considered at that spot, Alabama’s Reggie Ragland. The team seems content to go into 2016 with a youngster at free safety to pair with Landon Collins, and while Jalen Ramsey will be long gone by the time the Giants are on the board, there are a number of worthwhile Day 2 and Day 3 targets that could step in and compete with New York’s current crop of safeties. Schwartz names Karl Joseph, Justin Simmons, and Keanu Neal as a few possibilities.
  • Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com reports that Washington is likely to release Andre Roberts and perhaps Adam Hayward at some point in the near future, which would give the club enough cap room to sign its draft picks and still have about $5MM to roll over into next year (unless Jordan Reed gets a contract extension).
  • In the same piece, Tandler also observes that Noah Spence, who visited Washington last week, may be a perfect fit for the team’s No. 21 overall selection. Spence has some off-field red flags, but he is arguably the best pure pass rusher in this year’s draft, and given Junior Galette‘s potential departure at the end of the 2016 season, Spence could make a great deal of sense.

NFL Tweaks IR/Designated To Return Rule

Most of the NFL’s rule changes that were proposed and approved at this week’s owners’ meetings affect the play on the field, but at least one rule change will have an impact on how teams manage their rosters going forward. As Marc Sessler of NFL.com details, the league has adjusted the rules for the usage of the IR/designated to return slot.

Previously, a team was required to specify whether a player was receiving the designated-to-return tag at the time that player was placed on injured reserve. The designation allowed the player to return to practice after six weeks and to return to game action after eight weeks, rather than having to spend the entire season on IR.

Based on a new rule proposed by the Bills and approved by the NFL’s owners, teams will no longer have to specifically designate that a player will be occupying that IR-DTR spot when he’s placed on injured reserve. For instance, if a team places five players on injured reserve before Week 1, that club could decide at a later date to bring back any one of those players off IR.

The six-week waiting period will still apply, and teams will still only be able to use the IR-DTR designation on a single player per year — so in the previous example, the other four players will have to stay on IR all season, or until they work out an injury settlement with the club. Still, the option to postpone the decision on which player gets the designation will give teams more freedom and roster flexibility going forward, allowing clubs to maximize the use of that IR-DTR spot.

The rest of this week’s rule changes can be found via Sessler’s piece and right here.

NFC Notes: Raji, Brees, Seahawks, Rams

Packers president Mark Murphy was surprised by B.J. Raji‘s decision to walk away from football, but he respects the former NFL defensive lineman’s decision, as ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky writes.

“Oh yeah, he had been communicating with [team contract negotiator Russ Ball] and we thought we had a deal done,” the Packers president said. “I think it surprised his agent. I’ll tell you, I really respect B.J. It’s not an easy decision. The easy thing to do is take the money. Especially the letter he wrote, he obviously thought things through. No, I was surprised. I’m happy for him. He obviously gave it some thought.”

While Raji won’t be playing in 2016, he left the door open for a return in the future, and Packers head coach Mike McCarthy believes the big defensive tackle will eventually return. “It would have to be at the right time,” McCarthy said, per Demovsky.

Here’s more from around the NFC:

  • Saints quarterback Drew Brees says that extension talks are ongoing, though he does not know when or if a deal will be worked out, as Jeff Duncan of The Times-Picayune writes. “I don’t know that it is something that will be done next week or before the end of the year or next year or when,” Brees said on 104.5-FM in Baton Rouge. Brees, 37, is entering the final year of a five-year, $100MM deal he signed in 2012.
  • Asked today about the message Kam Chancellor posted to Instagram last week indicating that he’s “not going anywhere,” Seahawks GM John Schneider confirmed that the safety will “absolutely” be a Seahawk in 2016, though he didn’t offer any specifics on whether a specific conversation or incident prompted Chancellor to post that message. Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times has the details.
  • Schneider also said today that the Seahawks have not yet received Marshawn Lynch‘s retirement papers, but said there’s no rush to make a roster move involving Lynch — for cap purposes, the club may wait until after June 1 to do anything with Lynch (Twitter link via Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com).
  • Having lost Rodney McLeod in free agency, the Rams continue to monitor the market in search of potential help at the free safety position, writes Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com.
  • Lions GM Bob Quinn indicated today that the team’s extension discussions with 2013’s draft class likely won’t really heat up until after the draft, per Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com (Twitter link). Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay are, of course, the two most noteworthy extension candidates who fit that bill.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

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Free Agent Rumors: Jaguars, Wisniewski, Branch

The latest free agent rumors:

  • Jaguars GM David Caldwell says that he’s “not done” adding to the team’s offensive line (Twitter link via John Oehser of Jaguars.com). Caldwell went on to say that the door is not closed on Stefen Wisniewski either (Twitter link via Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union).
  • Defensive lineman Andre Branch is on his way to visit Washington, a source tells Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (on Twitter).
  • The Titans have been talking with the reps for nose tackle Al Woods and are hoping to get something done, Tiffany Blackmon of NFL Network tweets.
  • Free agent tackle Bradley Sowell has a visit scheduled with the Seahawks, according to Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com (on Twitter).
  • Before signing punter Brad Nortman, Caldwell says the Jaguars offered a new deal to incumbent Bryan Anger (Twitter link via O’Halloran).

Extra Points: Jaguars, Titans, Lions, Garoppolo

Some assorted notes from around the league on this Tuesday evening…

  • The Jaguars have hired former Falcons executive DeJuan Polk as their new assistant director of pro personnel, the team announced today (Twitter link via John Oehser of Jaguars.com). Polk has spent the majority of the last decade working as the pro personnel coordinator in Atlanta.
  • ESPN’s Bill Barnwell goes in-depth to explain why it might make more sense for the Titans to trade down in the draft rather than using the No. 1 overall pick on offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil.
  • Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Paul Kuharsky wonders if the Titans would gamble on Jalen Ramsey with the top pick. A defensive back has never been chosen with the first overall pick, but Titans general manager Jon Robinson didn’t necessarily rule out the idea. “I would say with the first overall pick, we’re looking to add an impact player,” he said. “There’s a handful of players that fit into that. A handful could be a couple or it could be 10 according to how big your hands are. But we want to come away with somebody that is going to impact our football team.”
  • The Lions expect 2015 draftee Quandre Diggs to be a regular contributor in nickel and dime defenses next season, but the team will still need to address the cornerback position in free agency or the draft, writes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
  • Tom Brady‘s new contract extension has observers reassessing Jimmy Garoppolo‘s role with the Patriots. However, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com doesn’t think New England’s backup QB will become a potential trade chip until at least 2017, unless another team blows away the Pats with an offer.

Ben Levine contributed to this post.

NFC Notes: Cowboys, Cruz, RGIII, Cards

With Tony Romo turning 36 this April, the Cowboys may not get a better chance to draft his eventual successor, but their No. 4 overall pick could also be used to address a more immediate need elsewhere on the roster. Speaking to Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Cowboys executive VP Stephen Jones acknowledges that the idea of selecting a quarterback is one the team must seriously consider.

“I mean you have to look at it,” Jones said. “You’re not naive to it but if you have the opportunity in this league, in our situation, to get a potential franchise quarterback, then you have to make the investment. You have to have the patience. You sacrifice maybe that opportunity that maybe is impactful right now.”

Let’s round up several more items from across the NFC….

  • Speaking to Nina Mandell of of USA Today’s For The Win, wide receiver Victor Cruz speculated that there’s an 80 percent chance he’ll return to the Giants for the 2016 season. While that’s an optimistic estimate, Jordan Raanan of NJ.com tweets that it doesn’t sound like Cruz has been told anything definitive yet by the team.
  • In the wake of Washington president Bruce Allen suggesting Robert Griffin III won’t be back with the team, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link) identifies the Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, Broncos, and Cowboys as possible suitors for RGIII.
  • Speaking today to reporters at the combine in Indianapolis, Cardinals GM Steve Keim said that he loves Andre Ellington‘s skills, but the running back must show he can consistently stay healthy before Arizona seriously considers locking him up long-term (Twitter link via Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic). As a 2013 draftee, Ellington is extension-eligible for the first time this offseason.
  • Former CFL pass rusher Tristan Okpalaugo, who signed with the Cardinals this week, got a $30K signing bonus on his one-year, minimum-salary deal, tweets Tom Pelissero of USA Today.

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Recently, we gave readers a sneak peek at what Matt Forte might look like in a Dolphins uniform. Forte, one of the league’s top running backs for the last few years, has been informed that he will not be re-signed by the Bears this spring. One club worth considering as a potential fit is in Miami, where former Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase is the new Dolphins’ head coach, and Lamar Miller is also facing free agency.

Do you think Matt Forte will take his talents to South Beach? Or do you see him signing somewhere else instead? Follow us on Instagram today and reply back in the comments section with your thoughts.

PFR Originals: 1/24/16 – 1/31/16

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • In our latest Community Tailgate post, we asked: Who’s going to win Super Bowl 50? The discussion seems to be pretty evenly divided between the Broncos and Panthers so far, so jump in and give your opinion! And be sure to look out for future Community Tailgates, where we’ll post a topic for discussion and ask for your thoughts in the comments section.
  • Luke Adams took a look at the longest-tenured NFL coaches, and Bill Belichick still leads the way, having been in charge of the Patriots since 2000. Marvin Lewis, Mike McCarthy, Sean Payton, and Mike Tomlin round out the top five.
  • Luke also went over the latest news in the league’s ongoing offensive and defensive coordinator searches.
  • Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.