Late-season collapses certainly occur, with injuries obviously playing key roles in contenders’ blueprints. As it stands now, however, the AFC playoff picture is top-heavy. It is quite possible the stretch run will feature division leaders jockeying for seeding and two wild-card teams hovering over the race for the bottom bracket slot.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Chargers a 94.7% chance to make the playoffs, with the AFC North holding a strong likelihood of producing a wild-card squad as well. Both the Steelers and Ravens’ chances sit north of 95%. Although the volume of sub-.500 AFC teams could drain drama from this year’s fight to wear white in Round 1, the conference does have a handful of teams on the fringe who appear poised for a battle to claim the No. 7 seed.
Six AFC teams have eight or nine losses entering Week 12. While the 2008 Chargers started 5-8 and erased a three-game division deficit with three to play, the odds are stacked against the conference’s bottom tier (Patriots, Jets, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders). This leaves four teams in between.
The Broncos have not made a postseason appearance since winning Super Bowl 50. Considering the Russell Wilson release brought a two-offseason dead money number unlike anything the NFL has seen, Denver snapping that drought this year was not expected. Wilson counts for $53MM on Denver’s 2024 payroll, with the club taking on the larger portion of the dead money this year ($30MM-plus is on the books for next year, as a small cap credit from the QB’s Steelers pact awaits). But Sean Payton‘s team is 6-5 and holds a, per FPI, 50.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Although the Broncos kept costs low and also moved on from Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy, they resisted Courtland Sutton trade offers — including a third-rounder from the 49ers in August — and assembled an interesting roster around No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix. The Oregon alum’s progress defines Denver’s season, as the team appears close to identifying a surefire long-term quarterback. The franchise has not seen a QB start more than four seasons since John Elway, amplifying the interest in Nix’s sudden entrance into the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, but Vance Joseph‘s defense has proven better than expected.
Extending Patrick Surtain in September and paying Jonathon Cooper just before trading Baron Browning, Denver sits third in scoring defense and third in yardage. The team leads the NFL with 39 sacks. This has given Nix important support during his maiden NFL voyage.
Defense has conversely burned the 4-7 Bengals, who are squandering MVP-caliber work from Joe Burrow. Back from a season-ending wrist injury, Burrow has thrown an NFL-most 27 touchdown passes (compared to four interceptions) and has done so despite franchise-tagged wideout Tee Higgins missing five games. The Bengals are not expected to pay Higgins, with a 2025 tag-and-trade perhaps all that is left on the contract front between the parties after no substantial talks have taken place since early 2023, but Ja’Marr Chase‘s extension price — a matter tabled to 2025 — will rise coming out of this season.
Chase’s 1,056 yards pace the NFL by more than 100. A defense that had been solid during the team’s 2021 and ’22 seasons has fallen off. Cincinnati augmented its defense by adding Sheldon Rankins and Geno Stone while reacquiring Vonn Bell, but Lou Anarumo‘s unit ranks 28th. FPI gives the Bengals a 14.8% chance to make the playoffs. While this is almost definitely the highest-ceiling team left on the AFC’s fringe, a team that entered the year with Super Bowl aspirations in the expected Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio’s final act together runs the risk of missing the postseason entirely.
Sitting at 4-6, the Dolphins carry a 13.6% qualification chance, per FPI. Mike McDaniel‘s team is here largely due to Tua Tagovailoa‘s concussion-driven IR stay; the Dolphins went 1-3 without their recently extended starter. Tagovailoa’s absence reduced an offense that had led the NFL in yardage last season to one of the league’s worst.
Even as Tagovailoa has returned, neither Tyreek Hill nor Jaylen Waddle has taken off. The Dolphins paid both this offseason, reworking Hill’s contract and extending Waddle in a deal that delivered the younger WR a better guarantee than Hill received via his 2022 extension. Through 10 games, Waddle is at 404 yards. Hill, who topped 1,700 in each of his two full Dolphins slates, has accumulated just 523.
As Miami’s elite wideout tandem will need to heat up soon for the team to have a chance at a third straight playoff berth — something the club has not accomplished since a five-year run from 1997-2001 — its defense is again without Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Phillips suffered a season-ending knee injury, while Chubb has not recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2023 season on New Year’s Eve. No Dolphin has more than four sacks or eight QB hits, with 38-year-old Calais Campbell — whom the Dolphins nearly traded back to the Ravens at the deadline — proving valuable in a four-sack start in his Miami return.
The Colts are 5-6, and FPI gives them the second-best odds (34.2%) of this bunch. Quarterback play, of course, has defined Indianapolis’ season. The team’s about-face with Anthony Richardson reminds came after a historically early benching involving a top-five pick, as the 2023 fourth overall choice had started only 10 games when benched.
Still, Richardson’s accuracy problems threaten to derail the Colts, who had gone to Joe Flacco in an attempt to better position themselves for a playoff push. After Flacco lost the ensuing two starts, Richardson is back. While the raw prospect looked better in his return start, he still carries a 48.5% completion rate. Only six QBs who have attempted at least 200 passes have finished south of 50% in a season this century.
GM Chris Ballard mostly just paid to keep his core together this offseason, though waiver claim Samuel Womack has helped a depleted boundary cornerback group. The Colts rank both 19th in scoring and points allowed, and while other components on this roster obviously matter, Richardson’s development still overshadows their season’s second half. That represents perhaps the biggest X-factor among this middle-class AFC glut.
Assuming the Chargers stay afloat and the Steelers and Ravens do not collapse, who do you think will claim the conference’s final spot in the seven-team field? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.
Signed to similar contracts during the summer of 2022, Deebo Samuel and D.K. Metcalf have each become two of the NFL’s better wide receivers — each being chosen in the 2019 second round. The Seahawks nabbed Metcalf at No. 64 via trade-up, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter notes the team had aimed to first draft Samuel at No. 35. GM John Schneider had worked out a trade-up from No. 37 to No. 35, via the Raiders, but Schefter adds the Silver and Black backed out of the deal. The Raiders instead dealt with the Jaguars, who drafted Jawaan Taylor at 35. The 49ers chose Samuel at 36.
The Seahawks still do not know why the Raiders reneged on the trade, Schefter adds. The Seahawks initially held a higher second-round choice than the Jags, who picked at 38. After Samuel went off the board, Seattle dealt 37 to Carolina (Greg Little) and drafted safety Marquise Blair at No. 47. The Seahawks had planned to pair Samuel and Metcalf, rather than the Ole Miss product — who famously fell to No. 64 after having teams divided during the pre-draft process — being a Samuel fallback option. Though, Metcalf as a WR contingency plan — with Doug Baldwin retirement rumors circulating during the draft — rather than pairing him with Samuel makes a bit more sense due to Tyler Lockett being just 27 at the time. Samuel and Metcalf are going into the final year of their contracts; each team rebuffed trade offers this year.
Here is the latest from the NFC West:
- Samuel’s San Francisco status may have changed once Brandon Aiyuk suffered an ACL tear. The older 49ers WR had been a rumored 2025 trade chip, as the team prepares for a Brock Purdy payday. Although some around the league have wondered if the 49ers will pay Purdy the going rate (mentioning a Kirk Cousins trade as a backup plan), The Athletic’s Matt Barrows expects Purdy to indeed receive a top-market deal from San Francisco. Purdy going from Mr. Irrelevant to a deal in the $55-$60MM-per-year range would represent one of the most dramatic rises in NFL history; the 2025 offseason is the window for that to happen.
- Staying on the 49ers-in-2025 theme, the team has seen promising early returns from second-round rookie Renardo Green. The 49ers have viewed Green as a player who can work inside and on the perimeter; that matches Deommodore Lenoir‘s profile. Lenoir is now signed long term, but All-Pro Charvarius Ward is in a contract year. With Lenoir locked in, Ward appears headed back to free agency. As such, Barrows adds Green should be considered the favorite to start opposite Lenoir on the boundary in 2025. Pro Football Focus rates Green as the sixth-best CB regular this season, albeit on only 298 snaps.
- While Sean McVay said right tackle Rob Havenstein could be back this week, the eighth-year Rams HC indicated (via ESPN.com’s Sarah Barshop) Tyler Higbee remains weeks away from returning. Higbee is still rehabbing the ACL and MCL tears sustained during the Rams’ wild-card loss to the Lions. The ninth-year tight end remains on Los Angeles’ reserve/PUP list. Havenstein has missed the Rams’ past two games with an ankle issue.
- Jake Moody missed time due to injury this season, being one of three 49ers kickers to go down, and did not impress upon return. Moody missed three field goals against the Buccaneers, prompting a heated Samuel to take issue with the recovered kicker (and long snapper Taybor Pepper). John Lynch said later the 49ers have not considered replacing Moody. “We didn’t blink,” Lynch told KNBR (h/t The Athletic’s David Lombardi). “We have a lot of faith in this kid. We all have rough days. There’s a lot of context to put in these things and Jake has earned a lot of respect from this organization.” Moody’s third-round contract runs through 2026.
The offseason head coaching market will be loaded with names. While iconic HC Bill Belichick, Lions OC Ben Johnson, and even Colorado HC Deion Sanders will steal headlines, another name may be the most sought-after individual among the options.
According to Dianna Russini of The Athletic, Mike Vrabel is getting the “most hype” among the player-turned-coach options. Russini notes that team owners are targeting “culture-builders” as they pursue head coaches. Vrabel earned that reputation during his time as the Titans head coach, and he’s known for relating to his players while also holding them accountable.
Considering the positive view on Vrabel, he was one of the most surprising casualties during last year’s coaching carousel. Tennessee’s 13-21 record between 2022 and 2023 naturally led to his demise. However, there were many pundits who believed Vrabel deserved a longer leash after guiding the Titans to 41 wins between 2018 and 2021 (with three-straight playoff nods, including an AFC Championship appearance).
The 49-year-old was a finalist for the Chargers and Falcons openings this past offseason, and he was loosely connected to a reunion with the Patriots. Ultimately, Vrabel took a consulting gig with the Browns while he eyes a job for the 2025 campaign.
Fortunately for Vrabel, there should be plenty of gigs to choose from. Russini says coaching vacancies could reach double digits, with the reporter comparing the upcoming offseason to 2021, when 10 teams added head coaches. Josina Anderson shares a similar sentiment, noting that she’s heard of seven head coaches who are currently on the hot seat (beyond the interim HCs with the Saints and Jets).
Aaron Rodgers has now seen the offensive coordinator he has long backed, Nathaniel Hackett, stripped of play-calling duties. Interim Jets HC Jeff Ulbrich said Thursday the future Hall of Fame QB took his friend’s demotion in stride, calling Rodgers “supportive” of the choice, via ESPN.com’s Rich Cimini. Ulbrich said he talked to Rodgers and Jets offensive and defensive players before making that call. Hackett had begun to lose support in the locker room, and Robert Saleh was on the verge of either firing him or going through with the demotion Ulbrich ultimately carried out.
As for Rodgers’ role in Saleh’s firing, the quarterback vehemently denied complicity. Calling accusations he played a role in Saleh’s ouster “patently false,” Rodgers confirmed during his Pat McAfee Show appearance Woody Johnson‘s account the two talked Monday night. Seeing as the owner fired Saleh the next morning, it is a somewhat difficult sell that this topic never came up during the QB-owner conversation. However, Rodgers said (via Cimini) he and the longtime Jets owner discussed his ankle injury. Rodgers has been battling a low ankle sprain, playing through the malady. Also calling Saleh one of the reasons he delayed retirement to play for the Jets, Rodgers will now move forward with Todd Downing calling the shots and Hackett in an unspecified role.
Here is the latest from the QB ranks:
- Giving Drake Maye first-team reps in training camp and during the season, the Patriots have now moved the No. 3 overall pick into the lineup. This comes after Jacoby Brissett has struggled in his season back in New England. The bridge quarterback ranks 28th in QBR but is playing with a bottom-end skill-position group and behind an O-line featuring key injuries. Still, the pivot to Maye — earlier than some anticipated — does not come as a knee-jerk reaction to Brissett’s performance against the Dolphins, the Boston Herald’s Doug Kyed notes. OC Alex Van Pelt had also said the team delaying Maye’s debut also had nothing to do with the current O-line composition. This Pats ramp-up period will be tested in Week 6, as Maye takes over against a 4-1 Texans team.
- Anthony Richardson did not qualify as a game-time decision last week, per ESPN.com’s Stephen Holder, who indicates the second-year Colts QB was unable to move on the level he normally can. That led to Indianapolis downgrading its starter to doubtful the day before its Week 5 game. Optimism exists, based on “significant improvement” in his oblique rehab Richardson can go in Week 6. Richardson getting in a limited practice represents a good sign for his availability Sunday, though eyes will be on this situation after Joe Flacco proved more capable of moving the offense after early-season Richardson accuracy issues.
- Concerns about Carl Williams’ involvement in his son Caleb‘s career have followed the former Heisman-winning passer, but the Bears received a positive report from now-Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury as they prepared for the draft. In discussing Caleb with Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus pre-draft, the recent USC QBs coach said he only saw Carl once at the Trojans’ practice facility, per SI.com’s Albert Breer, illustrating a more hands-off approach — at least, compared to public perception — from the prized prospect’s father. Carl Williams had made comments about his son having “two bites at the apple” regarding the NFL, inviting speculation the QB could return to school if he did not view the team with the No. 1 overall pick as a good fit. Caleb’s camp then tried to secure a no-franchise tag clause in his rookie deal — an unprecedented play the Bears shot down — and angled to be paid as an LLC for tax purposes. This invites some potential long-term issues for the Bears, but for now, the top pick’s development is their lone focus.
This is a sponsored post from BetterHelp. As a BetterHelp affiliate, MLB Trade Rumors receives compensation from BetterHelp if you purchase products or services through the links provided.
As society’s knowledge of mental health grows, more treatment opportunities are available to a more significant number of people living with mental health challenges. One such option is online therapy, which allows individuals to receive mental health support from a device with an internet connection from any location.
What Is BetterHelp?
BetterHelp is an online therapy platform that works with a database of over 30,000 counselors, therapists, social workers, and psychologists from all 50 US states and some countries worldwide. This platform aims to break down barriers that often keep people from seeking help, such as financial burdens, a rural location with limited options for therapy, or a lack of accessibility in one’s area.
Understanding BetterHelp
BetterHelp may work differently than meeting with a traditional therapist. Below are some ways individuals can use online therapy via this service.
Signing Up
Signing up for BetterHelp often takes a few minutes. The initial sign-up process is a questionnaire which asks prospective clients about the following:
- Reasons for seeking therapy and goals
- The individual’s diagnosis or mental health challenge
- Therapist gender preferences
- Whether they’d like to meet with an LGBTQ+, Black, or Asian therapist
- Preferences for individual, couples, or teen therapy
- Gender, age, sexuality (optional), pronouns, and relationship status
- Spiritual identity
- Past experience in therapy
- Intimacy challenges
- Substance use habits
After filling out the questionnaire, which may take around five to ten minutes, prospective clients will be directed to fill out their name, email, and password. Then, they will be sent to the payment page, where they can choose a plan. After the payment has been processed, it often takes around 48 hours for a therapist to be matched with them.
Payment
BetterHelp plans are charged monthly for four weeks of therapy. The overall monthly cost covers four sessions with the therapist (one per week) and access to all of BetterHelp’s other resources, such as support groups and classes. Cost ranges from $65 to $100 per week, which can be more affordable than traditional therapy.
The match process
Therapists are matched with clients based on the client’s responses to the questionnaire upon signing up. The only limitation is that a therapist must be licensed to practice in the state the client lives in to be able to work with them. Clients can change providers at any time for any reason.
Using the platform
Individuals can log in through the app or website to use the BetterHelp platform. There, they can find their messages with their therapist, a journaling feature, options to schedule appointments, and extra resources. Through the settings section, clients can check their billing information, change their therapist, and edit their profile. Weekly sessions with a therapist can be held via phone, video, or live chat, all through the app or website.
Extra resources
BetterHelp offers resources that might not be offered by in-person providers, such as the following:
- Weekly support groups
- Online classes by mental health experts
- Goal tracking options
- Journaling and journal prompts
- Worksheets
All features are included in the platform’s weekly price, so clients can access them without paying extra.
BetterHelp’s outreach
BetterHelp works with the broader community to offer support to non-profit organizations and individuals in need. They have given over 65 million dollars in discounts and financial aid to cover therapy for low-income individuals and donated over 95,000 months of free therapy to communities in need. BetterHelp partners with over 100 non-profit organizations.
Who might benefit from an online therapy platform?
Online therapy is often more flexible and convenient than in-person options. This option might benefit people with a busy schedule, such as parents, full-time workers, and athletes, who may not have the time to commute to an extra appointment. Many of the most evidence-based modalities, such as cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and dialectical behavior therapy (DBT), are available online.
Is online therapy effective?
Since 2021, four out of ten US adults have used this option. One study reported that over 71% of participants believed it was more effective than face-to-face therapy. Another study found that online therapy often led to increased quality of life for clients with anxiety and depression and was more affordable.
Takeaway
By seeking support online, financial, locational, and accessibility barriers can be removed, allowing more people to receive the support they seek. To get started, consider working with a platform like BetterHelp.
We’re looking to add a part-time contributor to the Pro Football Rumors writing team. The position pays on an hourly basis. Applicants must meet the following criteria:
- Exceptional knowledge of all 32 NFL teams, with no discernible bias.
- Knowledge of the salary cap and transaction-related concepts.
- At least some college education.
- Writing experience is necessary; online writing experience is preferred.
- Attention to detail — absolutely no spelling errors, especially for player and journalist names.
- Ability to follow the site’s style and tone.
- Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news. We need someone who can balance quick writing with thoughtful analysis. You must be able to add value to breaking news with your own insight, numbers or links to other relevant articles.
- Ability to use Twitter/X.
- Strong weekend availability is important. You must frequently be available to work on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays.
- Frequent weeknight availability (5-11pm CT) is preferred.
- Flexibility to work on short notice, along with occasional weekday availability, is a bonus.
If you’re interested, email pfrumorsapplications@gmail.com by July 16 with your resume and take a couple of paragraphs to explain why you qualify and stand out.
Former Buccaneers wide receiver/return specialist Deven Thompkins met with two NFL Personal Conduct Policy investigators and an NFLPA attorney in New York last week, as ESPN’s Jenna Laine reported. Thompkins actively sought the meeting, which took place sooner than it otherwise would have, as part of his effort to clear his name and land another NFL opportunity this season.
Thompkins, 24, was waived from injured reserve with an injury settlement last month, which made him a free agent. Given his production as a return man in 2023, he ordinarily would have stood a good chance at hooking on with a new club. After all, the injury that ostensibly precipitated his release was a Grade 1 hamstring strain that should be fully healed by now.
The problem for Thompkins is that his estranged wife, Maria Castilhos, has accused him of physical abuse dating back to February 14, 2023. Thompkins filed for divorce on February 27, and in the wake of Castilhos’ accusations, he recently filed a lawsuit against her for defamation and tortious interference with his NFL contract. As part of that claim, Thompkins alleges that Castilhos threatened him “with fabricated allegations of domestic violence unless he met her financial demands for additional alimony” in the divorce proceeding.
As of the time of this writing, Thompkins has not been suspended, and given that his steadfast denials have now evolved into a separate suit, the league may wait until more information comes to light before taking any action. In the meantime, he is free to sign with any club, though the nature of Castilhos’ allegations will doubtlessly make teams reluctant to acquire him.
A former undrafted free agent, Thompkins spent the past two seasons operating as Tampa Bay’s kick and punt returner. He totaled 1,082 return yards during that span, adding 115 yards and one touchdown on offense. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles previously left the door open to a new contract for Thompkins, but it is unclear if the club would truly consider that.
NBA teams can begin negotiating with outside free agents on Sunday evening at 5:00 p.m. CT, and our sister site Hoops Rumors (@HoopsRumors on Twitter) has all the latest news, rumors and transactions for each of the league’s 30 teams.
For the first time in 2024, NBA teams were permitted to negotiate with their own free agents one day after the NBA Finals ended (the Celtics won their 18th championship on June 17). That’s why several of 2024’s top free agents — including Pascal Siakam (Pacers), OG Anunoby (Knicks) and Immanuel Quickley (Raptors) — have already agreed to new contracts.
However, there are some huge names heading for unrestricted free agency, including LeBron James, James Harden, Paul George, DeMar DeRozan, and Klay Thompson. James is widely expected to return to the Lakers; there hasn’t been much news about Harden, but the Clippers hope to re-sign him; George’s future is unclear after spending the past five years with the Clippers; there has been “growing buzz” that DeRozan won’t be back with the Bulls; and the Warriors are reportedly preparing for Thompson’s departure after he spent his first 13 years with Golden State, winning four championships.
We’ve already seen a flurry of trade activity this offseason, both leading up to, during, and after the NBA draft, which took place over two days (on Wednesday and Thursday) for the first time this week. Former Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Mikal Bridges (Knicks), former All-Star Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), rising forward Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers), and defensive ace Alex Caruso (Thunder) are among the players on the move.
For the latest updates on NBA free agency, check out Hoops Rumors today! There will be a whirlwind of activity over the next couple of weeks as teams reshape their rosters for next season, and we’ll be covering it all. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter – @HoopsRumors.
Things change quickly in the NFL. At the end of the 2021 season, linebacker Shaquille Leonard was at the peak of his game, having earned Pro Bowl and/or First-Team All-Pro acclaim in each of his first four seasons in the league. Several years later, it sounds like a real possibility that the decorated defender will not play another snap.
Last night, Leonard attended a fundraiser in Carmel, Indiana for his Maniac Foundation. The event was sponsored by the Colts, for whom Leonard starred for four years before back issues upended his career. Indianapolis, which had signed Leonard to a five-year, $99.25MM extension in August 2021, waived him in November 2023, and he finished out last season with the Eagles after he cleared waivers.
Speaking at his foundation’s event, Leonard said he wants to continue his playing career and is working to make that a reality, but he is also content if that does not happen.
“I’m moreso just sitting back, getting the body healthy, and whenever the opportunity presents itself, we’ll give it a try,” he said (via Kyle Smedley of the Indianapolis Star). “I just continue to be me by working hard. If it happens, it happens. If it don’t, it don’t. I think throughout my career I’ve had a great career, even if I do step away from it. … I’m enjoying life and just waiting on that opportunity.”
Although he ultimately played in 14 games (12 starts) in 2023 after seeing action in just three contests the year before, he was clearly not the same player that landed the record-setting extension. Before the Colts cut him, he had logged a 70% snap share, which was by far his lowest mark for a full campaign. He then appeared in just 47% of Philadelphia’s defensive snaps over the club’s final five games of the season, which led to questions about his ability to regain his prior form.
In addition, Pro Football Focus assigned him a middling overall grade of 62.8 for his 2023 performance, which positioned him as the 53rd-best ‘backer out of 82 qualifiers. That was a far cry from his halcyon days of 2018-21, when he consistently graded out as a top-10 LB in the eyes of PFF’s metrics. He recorded 88 total tackles without a forced fumble or pass defensed, and he yielded a career-worst 123.8 quarterback rating in coverage.
Given his pedigree and age — he will turn 29 in July — it would not be surprising to see a team take a flier on him as the summer progresses (though there has been no reported interest in his services this offseason). A longtime friend said Leonard told him that he currently feels as healthy as he did in his rookie season, and according to the same friend, the father of one-month-old Darius Shaquille Leonard, Jr. would like to see the word “Senior” on the back of his NFL jersey. It remains to be seen if he will get that chance.