Top 3 Offseason Needs News & Rumors

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Carolina Panthers

January 26th, 2018 at 7:41pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Carolina Panthers, who rebounded from a down 2016 to finish 11-5, good for second in the NFC South.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Derek Anderson, QB
Brenton Bersin, WR
Damiere Byrd, WR (ERFA)
Jairus Byrd, S
Kaelin Clay, WR (RFA)
Ed Dickson, TE
Dan France, T (ERFA)
Andrew Gachkar, LB
Graham Gano, K
Ladarius Gunter, CB (RFA)
Drew Iddings, DT (ERFA)
Charles Johnson, WR
Tyler Larsen, C (ERFA)
Star Lotulelei, DT
Chris Manhertz, TE (ERFA)
Andrew Norwell, G
Michael Palardy, P (ERFA)
Julius Peppers, DE
Amini Silatolu, G
Scott Simonson, TE (RFA)
Greg Van Roten, G (RFA)
Teddy Williams, CB
David Yankey, G (RFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

Cam Newton, QB: $21,500,000
Kawann Short, DT: $17,000,000
Luke Kuechly, LB: $13,100,059
Ryan Kalil, C: $10,279,000
Greg Olsen, TE: $9,750,000
Mario Addison, DE: $8,916,666
Trai Turner, G: $7,703,000
Matt Kalil, T: $6,900,000
Jonathan Stewart, RB: $5,250,000
Kurt Coleman, S: $5,250,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $24,465,591
24th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for LB Shaq Thompson

Three Needs:

1) Add a new weapon for Cam Newton: When the Panthers lost to the Saints in the Wild Card round earlier this month, their wide receiver depth chart was as follows: Devin Funchess, Brenton Bersin, Kaelin Clay, Russell Shepard, Mose Frazier. Sure, Carolina will see the return of Damiere Byrd and Curtis Samuel — each of whom ended the year on injured reserve — in 2018, but it’s readily apparent that the Panthers lack a true No. 1 threat at wideout.

Jarvis Landry and Allen Robinson are probably the top two pending free agent receivers, but Landry will be pricey and — as a slot receiver — isn’t the type of addition the Panthers currently need. Robinson will be expensive, too, even though he’s coming off a torn ACL. Carolina doesn’t have a ton of money to throw around this offseason, thanks in part to free agent deals handed out by former general manager Dave Gettleman and extensions worked out by “interim” GM Marty Hurney. Therefore, the Panthers probably need to go bargain-hunting as they search for a specific pass-catcher to complement Funchess.

Signing a speed receiver who can handle deep passes should be a clear focal point for Carolina over the coming months, especially after the club allowed long-ball threat Ted Ginn Jr. to land with the division-rival Saints a year ago. Veteran Mike Wallace stands out as a player in that mold, as he caught all nine of his deep targets (20+ yards) in 2017 while ranking 12th in deep receiving yardage, according to the 2018 Pro Football Focus Free Agency Guide. Jourdan Rodrigue of the Charlotte Observer recently speculated that Wallace could fit with the Panthers, and he shouldn’t be all that expensive given that he’s now 31 years old. Other candidates to fill a speed niche for Carolina could include Paul Richardson, Taylor Gabriel, Deonte Thompson, or — if the Panthers want to spend — Sammy Watkins, who finished 14th in Football Outsiders‘ DYAR last season.

If Carolina isn’t able to land a deep threat, the club should double down and ink another big-bodied pass-catcher who can fight for contested catches and offer a large target radius for the often erratic Newton. If the Panthers go down this route, they could save a good bit of money because most of these types of wideouts are coming off disappointing seasons. Possible options may include Donte Moncrief, Michael Floyd, Jaron Brown, Kamar Aiken, plus restricted free agents Tyrell Williams and Brandon Coleman, but the best fit might be former quarterback Terrelle Pryor.

There’s no question Pryor was a free agent bust with the Redskins in 2017, as he managed only 20 receptions for 240 yards and one touchdowns. But he’s an excellent athlete at 6″4, 235 pounds, and was extremely productive with the Browns in 2016, topping 1,000 yards receiving in his first season as a wideout. Pryor ranked ninth in contested catch rate during his lone full campaign with Cleveland (via PlayerProfiler.com), while Matt Harmon of Reception Perception noted Pryor’s repeated success against man, zone, and press coverages. For a full perspective on Pryor’s capabilities, check out this October 2016 piece from Cian Fahey of Football Outsiders.

A number of other veteran receivers that could be on interest to the Panthers could be candidates for release this offseason, meaning Carolina may have several more pass-catching candidates available when free agency on March 14. Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, and Michael Crabtree are all on their respective teams’ roster bubbles, and Hurney & Co. should examine each player if and when he is cut. Among those wideouts, Thomas and Bryant would be the best fits for the Panthers under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner.

2) Find a new left guard: Andrew Norwell was quite a find by former general manager Dave Gettleman. Signed as an undrafted free agent out of Cincinnati in 2014, the 26-year-old Norwell has been a full-time starter in each of his four seasons with the Panthers. The 2017 campaign was Norwell’s pièce de résistance, as he earned first-team All-Pro honors while grading as the No. 3 guard in the league, per Pro Football Focus. He’s unquestionably the best lineman on the Panthers’ roster, and one of the best blockers in the NFL.Read more

Trouble is, the rest of league has certainly taken notice of Norwell, and he’s set up to cash in this offseason. Guard contracts have exploded in recent years, and guards such as Kelechi Osemele and Kevin Zeitler are now earning more than $11.5MM annually. Norwell, given his age and production, should match or exceed that threshold, and Carolina may not be able to afford him. The Panthers only have about $24MM to work with this year, and while they can create a bit more cap space by releasing players such as Charles Johnson or Russell Shepard, Hurney won’t be able to spend heavily in free agency.

If the Panthers look to the free agent market to replace Norwell, they won’t find much, as the 2018 class of FA guards falls of after Norwell’s name. While Carolina could patch over its left guard vacancy by inking a veteran such as Brandon Fusco, Matt Slauson, or Alex Boone, the best choice may be Josh Kline, who just wrapped up an outstanding year with the Titans. Kline, whom Tennessee claimed off waivers from the Patriots in 2016, has started 30 games in Nashville over the past two seasons. He’s only 28 years old, but given that excels as a pass-blocker, I’d expect the Titans to make every effort to retain him.

More likely, the Panthers will need to use an early draft pick to acquire a new starting guard. Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com recently sent Ohio State’s Billy Price to Carolina in his first mock draft of the year, while Todd McShay of ESPN.com gave the Panthers Oklahoma offensive tackle Orlando Brown. The Brown pick makes sense on multiple levels — he could theoretically play guard during his rookie season, but he’d also provide long-term insurance for left tackle Matt Kalil, who was dreadful throughout the first year of a five-year, $55MM contract. Another option could be Braden Smith (Auburn), whom Matt Miller of Bleacher Report calls the biggest riser among the 2018 guard class.

3) Fix the secondary: The Panthers have famously refused to pay for defensive backfield defenders, instead opting to invest in their front seven. That strategy was never more apparent than when Carolina rescinded Josh Norman‘s franchise in 2016 before using three draft picks on corners that April. Those selections haven’t worked out, as all of the Panthers’ cornerbacks ranked in the bottom quarter of PFF’s positional rankings a season ago.

Carolina ranked 10th in DVOA against the pass in 2017, but that ranking is a bit misleading. While the Panthers were effective against opposing tight ends and running backs, they struggled against wideouts: the club ranked 19th against No. 1 wide receivers, No. 2 wide receivers, and slot men. Moreover, Carolina surrendered 13.1 receptions per game (second-most in the league) and 168.9 yards per game (fourth-most) to receivers. The solution for the Panthers, then, is to find more talented cornerbacks.

The Panthers haven’t used a first-round pick on a corner since 2004, when they selected Ohio State’s Chris Gamble with the 28th overall pick. A Buckeye could be in the cards for Carolina in 2018, as well, as Josh Norris of Rotoworld recently mocked OSU’s Denzel Ward to the Panthers. As Norris notes, Carolina previously used stringent physical measurements (namely, arm length) when evaluating cornerbacks under Gettleman, but those rules may no longer apply with Hurney in charge.

Ward is limited in the stature department (he stands 5′”10, 190 pounds), but Luke Easterling of USA Today says Ward’s “technique and physical playing style have made him successful against even bigger receivers.” If the Panthers are searching for a larger corner, they could look at Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick (although he was primarily a slot corner with the Crimson Tide) or Iowa’s Josh Jackson in the first round, or Colorado’s Isaiah Oliver on Day 2.

I’d expect the Panthers to use the their free agent dollars to solidify their offensive line or attack their lack of wide receiver depth, so the club almost assuredly won’t be in the market for top-of-the-line corners such as Malcolm Butler or Trumaine Johnson. Second-tier options like Kyle Fuller or Prince Amukamara might even be too expensive, so Carolina could instead target options like E.J. Gaines (Bills) or veteran Johnathan Joseph (Texans). The Panthers have not been afraid to add over-30 players to their secondary before (see: Roman Harper, Mike Adams), so Joseph in particular shouldn’t be ruled out due to his age.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Los Angeles Rams

January 24th, 2018 at 7:05pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Los Angeles Rams, a surprise contender that captured the NFC West crown before suffering a defeat in the first round of the postseason.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Connor Barwin, LB
Malcolm Brown, RB (ERFA)
Derek Carrier, TE
Cody Davis, S
Lance Dunbar, RB
Dominique Easley, DE
Troy Hill, CB (ERFA)
Trumaine Johnson, CB
Lamarcus Joyner, S
Zach Laskey, FB (ERFA)
Matt Longacre, LB (RFA)
Cornelius Lucas, T
Cameron Lynch, LB (RFA)
Jake McQuaide, LS
Aaron Neary, G (ERFA)
Nickell Robey-Coleman, CB
Garrett Sickels, LB (ERFA)
John Sullivan, C
Tyrunn Walker, DT
Sammy Watkins, WR
Darrell Williams, T (RFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

Robert Quinn, DE: $12,399,770
Andrew Whitworth, T: $12,166,666
Alec Ogletree, LB: $11,600,000
Michael Brockers, DT: $10,750,000
Mark Barron, LB: $10,000,000
Robert Woods, WR: $8,000,000
Tavon Austin, WR: $8,000,000
Jared Goff, QB: $7,619,365
Rodger Saffold, G: $7,500,000
Aaron Donald, DT: $6,892,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $51,012,500
23rd pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for RB Todd Gurley

Three Needs:

1) Find a dynamic edge defender: We don’t need to tell you that defensive tackle Aaron Donald is an absolute monster. He earned a near-perfect 99.7 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, and was the only interior lineman who ranked among the NFL’s top 20 in quarterback pressures (his 52 were third-most in the league, behind only Demarcus Lawrence and Khalil Mack).

Thanks to Donald’s dominance and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips‘ scheming, Los Angeles posted a decent performance against opposing signal-callers: while the club ranked just 24th in sacks, it finished fifth in adjusted sack rate and 16th in pressure rate. Imagine what the Rams could do after improving on edge options Robert Quinn and Connor Barwin, each of whom graded as bottom-20 pass-rushers in 2017, according to PFF. Quinn’s production has been dwindling for at least three consecutive seasons, while Barwin is now 31 years old and will hit free agency in March.

The only problem with trying to improve an edge defense through free agency is that most teams don’t let quality pass-rushers get away, meaning many players on the open market will come with some kind of flaw (age, injury, etc.). So the Rams may first need to look internally, and potentially give more playing time to backup Matt Longacre, who entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2015. Longacre, 26, played more snaps in 2017 than he had in the previous two seasons combined, and came through with 5.5 sacks and 15.5 pressures. Cameron DaSilva of RamsWire recently looked at why Longacre was so successful last year, noting that stunts and twists were a large part of Longacre’s usage.

If Los Angeles does look at the free agent edge rushing market, they won’t find much. Demarcus Lawrence is overwhelmingly likely to stay with the Cowboys either through a long-term contract or the franchise tag, leaving the Lions’ Ezekiel Ansah as the top defender available. Ansah has spent his entire career in a 4-3 scheme, leaving questions as to whether he could play in the Rams’ 3-4 front. If LA doesn’t think Ansah is a viable option, the club will instead have to look at incremental improvements.

The first call general manager Les Snead makes should go to veteran defender Julius Peppers, who is a free agent again after spending the 2017 season in Carolina. Peppers is 38 years old, but he hasn’t posted fewer than seven sacks in a decade. And the Rams shouldn’t necessarily worry about Peppers’ advanced age given that they’re in clear win-now mode. Not only can Peppers still be productive, but he played in a 3-4 look from 2014-16 — while Phillips and ex-Packers DC Dom Capers run different versions of the 3-4, Peppers has proven he can be effective in a stand-up role.

The other pass-rusher that should interest the Rams is Aaron Lynch, who will become a free agent in March after four seasons with the 49ers. Los Angeles should have a good idea of Lynch’s ability given that it plays San Francisco twice per year, but Lynch admittedly hasn’t been on the field much since 2016 (he’s averaged only 16% playtime over the past two seasons). The 24-year-old Lynch was reportedly overweight and in danger of getting cut last May, and while those are concerns, those issues could also mean Lynch will be cheap once he hits the open market. As recently as 2015, Lynch ranked fifth in the NFL with 34 pressures — that’s the type of upside that should interest the Rams, potentially on a multi-year deal.

A few other veteran players could be of note to the Rams this offseason, including a number that may be released in the coming months. Chief among them are two notable NFC North defenders, the Packers’ Clay Matthews and the Bears’ Pernell McPhee. Both are age-29+ and have dealt with injuries in recent season, but both also still have the potential to be play-making difference-makers. If they’re cut, the Rams should have interest. Los Angeles could also consider a trade, with the target being the Colts’ Jabaal Sheard. Sheard is coming off the best season of his career, but if Indianapolis is going to undergo something of a rebuild, it doesn’t need a 29-year-old edge defender, meaning he could probably be had.

If the Rams don’t land an impact edge rusher in free agency, they may be up a creek without a paddle, as the 2018 draft class of outside linebackers/defensive ends isn’t rife with top-end talent. NC State’s Bradley Chubb isn’t falling until the end of the first round, and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com only lists three other edge defenders — Arden Key (LSU), Harold Landry (Boston College), and Sam Hubbard (Ohio State) among his top-50 prospects. Adding insult to injury, Los Angeles doesn’t own a second-round pick in 2018 (ramifications of the Sammy Watkins trade), so it won’t be able to take advantage if one of those defenders listed takes a draft-day tumble.

2) Bolster the interior offensive line: The Rams’ 2017 offensive turnaround was one of the more discussed topics in the NFL last season, and the club’s improvement along the offensive line was a major part of that effort. After the 2016 campaign, Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus graded Los Angeles’ front five as the No. 27 offensive line in the league, a ranking that almost seemed too positive given that the Rams had finished 29th in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate.

In 2017, after swapping out left tackle Greg Robinson for Andrew Whitworth and center Cody Wichmann for John Sullivan, the difference was obvious. By midseason, PFF listed the Rams as the NFL’s 12th-best offensive line, and the unit ended up finishing third in adjusted line yards and ninth in adjusted sack rate. Quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley were the beneficiary of the front five advancement, and Los Angeles can make its stars’ lives even easier by re-investing in its offensive line again this offseason.

The Rams’ two areas of concern are at center and right guard, but they are worries for different reasons. Sullivan regained his position as one of the league’s best centers after spending the 2016 campaign as a backup in Washington, but he’s 32 years old and a pending free agent. Right guard Jamon Brown, meanwhile, is still 24 years old and on his rookie contract, but he was the lone weak spot on LA’s offensive line a season ago. However, head coach Sean McVay recently indicated that he’s excited about Brown’s upside, and seems committed to using Brown as a starter again in 2018.

The optimal solution for the Rams, then, seems to be investing a draft pick on a young player who can manage both center and guard, and thus cover for a potential loss or decline from Sullivan, or a failure to live up to expectations by Brown. A dream scenario would see Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson falling to pick No. 23, but even given the league’s trepidation of selecting a guard early, it’s difficult to see Nelson — who is billed as a once-in-a-generation lineman — dropping to the end of the first round.

More likely, Los Angeles could use its first-round pick on someone like Billy Price (Ohio State), who is capable of playing anywhere on the interior of the offensive line. In his first mock draft of the year, Todd McShay of ESPN.com sent Price to the Rams at No. 23, noting that Price should be a “steady starter” from Day 1. If Price can come close to matching the production of Vikings center/fellow ex-Buckeye Pat Elflein, the Rams would be pleased. Mid-round options could include Frank Ragnow (Arkansas) or Skyler Phillips (Idaho State), the latter of whom Matt Miller of Bleacher Report calls the biggest sleeper in the 2018 guard class.

3) Shore up the secondary: The Rams can probably get by for another season by patching over holes on the edge of their defense and on the interior of the offensive line, but if Los Angeles doesn’t add to its defensive backfield over the next several months, the club could be in trouble. Trumaine Johnson and Nickell Robey-Coleman are both ticketed for free agency, while Kayvon Webster‘s ruptured Achilles tendon could put his availability for the start of the 2018 season in question.

Let’s start with Johnson, who has been franchise-tagged in each of the past two years. A third consecutive tag is untenable, so it’s either a long-term deal or bust for Johnson and the Rams. Johnson is still only 28 years old and while he wasn’t superb last season (No. 68 CB per PFF), he was also adjusting to a man-heavy scheme for the first time. While a new deal seemed impossible at this time last year (Los Angeles reportedly tried to trade Johnson after tagging him), the Rams are now open to re-signing Johnson if the price is right. It’s a tough call, but given the defensive backs available on the free agent market, Johnson might be the best option at outside corner for Los Angeles.

Robey-Coleman, however, might be an even more pressing contract situation, as the Rams can’t afford to lose him after the season he just posted as the club’s slot cornerback. Surprisingly released by the Bills prior to last year, Robey-Coleman signed with Los Angeles on a one-year, minimum salary benefit contract and preceded to manage the best season of his career. Robey-Coleman, 26, ranked fourth in Football Outsiders’ success rate and 14th in yards per pass, while the Rams as a whole finished seventh in DVOA against slot receivers.

If the Rams plan to add another outside cornerback, they’ll likely need to sign someone with experience playing man coverage. That means looking at free agents from teams who play extensive man schemes like the Titans, Chiefs, Cardinals, and 49ers. From those clubs, the best pending free agent may be Tramon Williams, but I’m not sure Los Angeles (or any NFL club) will be eager to sign a 34-year-old coming off his most productive season. Instead, the Rams could target corners such as Brice McCain, Terrance Mitchell, Justin Bethel, or Dontae Johnson, all of whom admittedly played poorly in 2017, but have experience playing press-man.

The draft is another avenue where the Rams can pursue a cornerback upgrade, and draft analysts have been making that connection in recent weeks. Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com sent Auburn’s Carlton Davis to the Rams in his first mock draft of the year, while Matt Miller of Bleacher Report gave Los Angeles Isaiah Oliver (Colorado). Ohio State’s Denzel Ward is regarded as the best corner in the 2018 draft, but he’s unlikely to fall to pick No. 23. Other options could include Josh Jackson (Iowa), Mike Hughes (Central Florida), or Donte Jackson (LSU).

Top 3 Offseason Needs: New York Jets

January 18th, 2018 at 9:11am CST by Zachary Links

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New York Jets, who were more competitive than expected in 2017.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

David Bass, LB
Freddie Bishop, LB (ERFA)
Terrence Brooks, S
Bruce Carter, LB
Chandler Catanzaro, K
Morris Claiborne, CB
Xavier Cooper, DE (RFA)
Demario Davis, LB
Dakota Dozier, G
Kony Ealy, DE
Quincy Enunwa, WR (RFA)
Chris Gragg, TE
Jonotthan Harrison, C
Wesley Johnson, C
Chris King, WR (ERFA)
Josh McCown, QB
Doug Middleton, S (ERFA)
Rontez Miles, S (RFA)
Mike Pennel, DT
Brent Qvale, T (RFA)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE
Julian Stanford, LB
Neal Sterling, TE (RFA)
Ed Stinson, DE
Lawrence Thomas, DE (ERFA)
Eric Tomlinson, TE (ERFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

Muhammad Wilkerson, DE: $20,000,000
Kelvin Beachum, T: $9,500,000
Buster Skrine, CB: $8,500,000
Brian Winters, G: $7,000,000
James Carpenter, G: $6,805,000
Ben Ijalana, T: $6,000,000
Leonard Williams, DT: $5,928,004
Jamal Adams, S: $5,058,820
Jermaine Kearse, WR: $5,000,000
Bilal Powell, RB: $4,883,334

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $74,579,406
Sixth pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for DT Leonard Williams

Three Needs:

Identify their next starting quarterback: Josh McCown did a solid job last year, but his contract expires in March and his 39th birthday is coming in July. Meanwhile, backups Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg stand as the Jets’ only QBs under contract. Petty, a Baylor product who was selected in Mike Maccagnan‘s first draft as GM, completed less than 50% of his passes upon taking over for McCown at the end of the season. Hackenberg, a second round pick in 2016, has yet to play a down of real NFL football.

It is possible that the Jets will look to re-sign McCown as their Week 1 starter after he turned in a handful of brilliant performances last year. In each of the Jets’ five wins, McCown completed more than 70% of his passes. He also helped Gang Green get out to a 14-0 lead over the Patriots in October before Tom Brady & Co. came roaring back to win by a final of 24-17. Still, that’s only a viable scenario if the Jets draft a promising but raw QB in April. Otherwise, the Jets will only consider keeping McCown as a high-priced backup, provided that he would be willing to serve in that capacity and the Jets can justify spending ~$7MM on a reserve.

The good news for the Jets is that this year’s potential free agent QB crop has a handful of quality options. With tons of cap room (though, not as much as some other teams have), you can expect the Jets to make a run at Kirk Cousins if he becomes available. The Redskins reserve the right to hit him with a third consecutive franchise tag or this could be the offseason that they finally give him the lucrative long-term contract that he’s looking for. But, if the Redskins allow him to test the open market or even the restricted market, the Jets won’t hesitate to get in on the bidding. This past season was not Cousins’ finest, but he has shown that he can be a backend top-10 signal caller when surrounded with the right personnel. If he reaches free agency, he’ll be the best QB up for grabs in years.

The Chiefs are expected to move on from Alex Smith this year and if they can’t find a viable trade for him, they might release him outright. Adding Smith wouldn’t be as sexy of a move as signing Cousins, but Smith did lead the Chiefs to the postseason when many expected him to crash and make way for Patrick Mahomes. You also might be surprised to learn that Smith graded out as Pro Football Focus’ sixth-best quarterback of the season, tying him with Russell Wilson and putting him ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford.

Case Keenum, PFF’s No. 8 ranked QB, shocked the world with his performance this year and he just might help the Vikings reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1976. It’s hard to imagine Minnesota letting him get away at this point, but if he’s out there, the Jets will at least put feelers out for him. Of course, the clear downside with Keenum is that he accomplished very little before this season. Has Keenum, almost 30, finally come into his own? Or was his success the product of Pat Shurmur‘s system? On the plus side, Keenum looks the part of a postseason winner in this limited sample, something that could not necessarily be said for Smith. Smith is 2-5 in his playoff career with his last postseason W coming in 2015.

Beyond those three, there are some intriguing, yet risky, QBs who could be available. Teddy Bridgewater looked the part of a rising star in his first two NFL seasons, but he has not seen real playing time since the end of the 2015 campaign. Tyrod Taylor, at times, has looked the part of a legitimate NFL starter, but he would be more of a bridge option than anything for the Jets. Ditto for Bridgewater’s teammate, Sam Bradford, who is also scheduled to reach free agency in March.

Although he’s largely untested, QB-needy teams like the Jets will be keeping an eye A.J. McCarron‘s grievance case. If he wins, the Bengals QB will go from an restricted free agent to a UFA, allowing him to finally cash in and get his opportunity as a starter. It’s unclear how the Jets’ decision makers feel about McCarron, but the Browns’ old regime was willing to part with a second-round pick and a third-round pick to land him before the trade deadline.

Technically speaking, Drew Brees is also slated to be a part of this group, but he is widely expected to remain with New Orleans. Other big names like Eli Manning might become available, but the Jets have gotten an up close look at the two-time Super Bowl champ and are certainly aware of his sharp decline. There’s no scenario in which the Jets would sign Manning to be their starter for multiple seasons, nor is there a scenario in which Manning agrees to groom a top draft pick only to step out of the way during the season.

Armed with the No. 6 pick, the Jets will have a crack at this year’s best quarterbacks, though they would have to get ahead of the Giants at No. 2 in order to have their pick of the litter. Despite their hiccups in 2017, USC’s Sam Darnold and UCLA’s Josh Rosen remain the top arms in this year’s class with Darnold representing the perceived safer choice and Rosen possibly having the higher ceiling. If the Jets stay at No. 6 and miss out on both, they could entertain the likes of Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson.

Edge Rusher: Muhammad Wilkerson has about as much of a chance of being on the Jets next year as Kylie Minogue. The Jets will need to bolster their edge rush with an impact defensive end or outside linebacker – or both.

If the Jets want to swing for the fences at No. 6, they could make a high-risk, high-reward pick in LSU’s Arden Key. Key has injury questions, and the Jets arguably have bigger needs to address at the top of the draft, but a freak athlete who stands at 6’6″ could be too good to pass up. If the Jets are confident that they can harness Key’s speed, they could plug him in at defensive end alongside Leonard Williams and Steve McLendon or rotate him at outside linebacker with Jordan Jenkins and Josh Martin.

The Jets took front seven players in the first round in both 2015 and 2016 (Williams and Darron Lee, respectively), so going back to that well at No. 6 overall might seem a little stale to Jets fans. Still, there aren’t a ton of high-end outside linebackers scheduled to hit the open market in March, so the Jets could make it a priority in the draft. Nigel Bradham‘s stands as the best OLB available, but it’s not likely that the Eagles will let him get away and he’s arguably more suited for a 4-3 scheme. The good news for the Jets is that the defensive end group looks a bit stronger with names like Demarcus Lawrence, Alex Okafor, Ezekiel Ansah, and Adrian Clayborn available.

The Jets’ need for a defensive end will increase if they are unable to retain Kony Ealy this offseason. The Jets took a low-risk flier on Ealy after he had an atrocious summer with the Patriots and he repaid the favor with a surprisingly solid campaign. But, even if Ealy is re-signed, the Jets’ best bet would be to move him to a reserve role and make an upgrade on the first unit.

Find a quality offensive coordinator: On Wednesday, the Jets dismissed John Morton. Although he was well-liked by many in the organization, the results just weren’t there in 2017 – the Jets finished 28th in yards, 29th in first downs, 24th in passing yards, and 19th in rushing yards. The Jets offense performed well enough to capture five wins in 2017 and stay competitive against tough teams like the Panthers and the Patriots, but their play-calling must improve if they are to put themselves in the playoff conversation in 2018.

It sounds like the Jets would like to promote quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates to the OC position, but he might not want the job. Former Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley is also a candidate. Haley commanded one of the league’s top offenses in Pittsburgh for years, but his strong personality and off-the-field antics might be too much for head coach Todd Bowles to deal with.

Whoever the Jets hire as their next OC must be a sharp play caller and have the knowhow to manage the Jets’ next top QB, particularly if that signal caller is a rookie.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Cincinnati Bengals

January 17th, 2018 at 7:32pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll begin this year’s series with the Cincinnati Bengals, who posted a 7-9 record and finished third in the AFC North a season ago.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Russell Bodine, C
Tyler Eifert, TE
Jeremy Hill, RB
Kevin Huber, P
A.J. McCarron, QB (RFA?)
Kevin Minter, LB
Cedric Peerman, RB
Pat Sims, DT
Andre Smith, OL
Chris Smith, DE
Eric Winston, T

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

Andy Dalton, QB: $16,300,000
A.J. Green, WR: $13,750,000
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB: $9,600,000
Geno Atkins, DT: $9,550,000
Vontaze Burfict, LB: $9,510,000
Darqueze Dennard, CB: $8,526,000
Carlos Dunlap, DE: $7,300,000
Adam Jones, CB: $6,666,668
George Iloka, S: $6,200,000
Michael Johnson, DE: $6,125,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $37,436,799
12th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for T Cedric Ogbuehi

Three Needs:

1) Offensive line, offensive line, offensive line: The Bengals’ recent dip in performance — the club made five consecutive postseason appearances from 2011-15 before slipping below .500 in each of the past two years — was presaged during the 2015 draft, when Cincinnati used its first two selections on a pair of offensive linemen: Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher. Given that starting linemen Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler were scheduled to hit free agency after the 2016 campaign, the Bengals were planning ahead by envisioning a future starting five full of youth.

That scheme has failed spectacularly: Ogbuehi has graded as a bottom-10 tackle in each of his two years as a starter, per Pro Football Focus, while Fisher hasn’t played more than 38% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps in any of his three pro seasons. Russell Bodine continued his run as one of the worst starting centers in the NFL, Clint Boling settled in as a league-average left guard, and the Bengals relied on Andre Smith — in his second stint with the club — to play more than half their snaps. Cincinnati bottomed out in Football Outsiders‘ offensive line rankings, finishing 20th in adjusted sack rate and 24th in adjusted line yards.

Revamping an offensive line in a single offseason seems like a daunting task, but other clubs have managed the feat in the recent past. The Rams signed Whitworth and fellow aged veteran John Sullivan last spring and instantly fielded one of the the best front fives in the league. Same goes for the Vikings, who inked tackles Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers and drafted center Pat Elflein. As a condition of his return as head coach, Marvin Lewis indicated owner Mike Brown is open to spending in free agency — something the Bengals rarely do — so additions could be on the horizon.

The free agent crop of offensive tackles is barren, however, meaning Cincinnati isn’t likely to find a blindside protector on the open market. Nate Solder is the clear No. 1 option available among free agent tackles, and two other Patriots — Cameron Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle — comprise the next best choices among an uninspiring group. Fleming, still just 25 years old and a consistent blocker over the past two seasons, could be an intriguing solution for the Bengals, but a draft choice seems like a more palatable route as the club seeks front five patches.

Drafting another first-round offensive tackle would represent an admission that the Ogbuehi selection has been a failure, and it’s time for Cincinnati to cop to that mistake. Texas’ Connor Williams is considered the top tackle available in 2018, according to Scouts Inc. (ESPN Insider subscription required), while Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey or Oklahoma’s Orlando Brown could also be in consideration. In his first mock draft of the year, Todd McShay of ESPN.com sent Williams to the Bengals in the first round.

While the Bengals may not be able to find a suitable tackle during the free agent period, there are a number of interesting interior offensive linemen with expiring contracts. Giants lineman Justin Pugh would seem to be a perfect match for Cincinnati, as the former first-round pick can handle either tackle or guard, giving the Bengals flexibility as they sort out their front unit. Pugh will be expensive (he’ll likely earn in excess of $10MM annually), as will the Panthers’ Andrew Norwell, the top guard available. Pugh’s New York teammate, center Weston Richburg, could also be on the Bengals’ radar if they want a massive upgrade over Bodine.

If Cincinnati wants to spend in the middle of the market as opposed to the top, it could target a few ex-Cowboys, especially given that it just hired former Dallas offensive line coach Frank Pollack. Like Pugh, veteran Byron Bell has the ability to play tackle and guard, while interior lineman Jonathan Cooper also has recent experience with Pollack. Other mid-tier free agent options could include Ryan Jensen (Ravens), Josh Kline (Titans), Daniel Kilgore (49ers), Alex Boone (Cardinals), and Matt Slauson (Chargers).

Restricted free agency is a rarely-used player acquisition avenue for NFL teams (just three RFAs signed offer sheets in 2017), but the Bengals would do well to assess the RFA market in the coming weeks. Broncos center Matt Paradis is hitting restricted free agency after three solid seasons in Denver, but general manager John Elway will likely use at least a second-round tender on Paradis, making him cost prohibitive. Titans guard Quinton Spain, however, has been quietly competent as a starter from 2016-17, and isn’t certain to require anything more than an original round tender, making him a potential Cincinnati target.

2) Bring back Tyler Eifert, or find a new tight end: Eifert has long been referred to as “Rob Gronkowski Lite,” as the two share a penchant for red zone touchdowns, wear similar arm braces, and — unfortunately — struggle to deal with injuries. Through five NFL seasons, Eifert has appeared in less than 50% of the Bengals’ games (39 of 80) and has never played a full 16-game slate. In 2017, Eifert underwent back surgery and was placed on injured reserve after just two contests, so a long-term deal is likely out of the question given his recent injury history.

If the Bengals do re-sign Eifert, it will likely be a one- or two-year deal that is heavily laden with per-game roster bonuses, meaning Eifert would have a significant amount of money riding on his health. For that reason, I’d expect Eifert to land elsewhere and sign with a club that will insert performance-based incentive language into his next contract (something Cincinnati typically won’t do). As a last-ditch option, the Bengals could consider deploying the franchise tag on Eifert, but that would require a commitment north of $10MM.

With Eifert sidelined, backup tight end Tyler Kroft posted the best season of his three-year career by managing 42 receptions for 404 yards and seven touchdowns (the latter figure was good for sixth among NFL tight ends). The Bengals could certainly head into the 2018 campaign with Kroft as their starting tight end, but it’s not out of the question that the club pursues an upgrade. Depth behind Kroft is also an issue, as C.J. Uzomah, Cethan Carter, FB/TE hybrid Ryan Hewitt, and rookie Mason Schreck combined to play just 368 snaps in 2017.

Jimmy Graham isn’t a Bengals-type target, but there are two free agent tight ends who could be fits in the Queen City: Trey Burton (Eagles) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Jets). Burton is expected to cash in after playing second fiddle to Zach Ertz in Philadelphia, but Cincinnati has enough cap space to afford a second-tier tight end such as Burton. New York, meanwhile, isn’t likely to “go crazy” in order to retain Seferian-Jenkins, meaning the Bengals could have an opportunity to land the 25-year-old. Neither Burton nor ASJ are effective blockers, but each would add a new dimension to Cincinnati’s passing attack.

If the Bengals expand their search for tight end help, the Seahawks’ Luke Willson could come into play, especially if Cincinnati is looking for a blocker. Dwayne Allen, too, is excellent in the run game (No. 4 run-blocking TE, per PFF), and should come cheap once he’s released by the Patriots. Richard Rodgers (Packers) is still just 25 years old despite having four pro seasons under his belt. A draft pick — Matt Miller of Bleacher Report calls Miami’s Christopher Herndon the biggest sleeper of the 2018 class — is also on the table.

3) Add another linebacker: The Bengals’ 2017 linebacking corps was, in a word, a mess. Vontaze Burfict was a star when available, but he played in only 10 games thanks to a suspension and injuries. Backup extraordinaire Vincent Rey was once again stretched when asked to serve as a full-time starter. And free agent acquisition Kevin Minter couldn’t even play ahead of sixth-round rookie Jordan Evans, and barely saw more action than undrafted free agent Hardy Nickerson.

Cincinnati is in desperate need of more depth — if not another starter — at the second level of its defense. The numbers bear that need out, as the Bengals ranked 22nd in yards per attempt allowed, 24th in rush defense DVOA, and 31st in DVOA against opposing tight ends. While there are varying opinions as to whether selecting a linebacker on Day 1 of the draft is a worthwhile investment, but Cincinnati should the opportunity to take a play-making ‘backer with the No. 12 overall pick.

The most obvious candidate to be selected with that 12th pick is Georgia’s Roquan Smith, who is widely considered the best linebacker available in 2018. Smith’s résumé is a chock full of accolades, as he earned the Butkus Award (given to the nation’s top LB), SEC Defensive Play of the Year, and was named a consensus All-American. Luke Easterling of DraftWire calls Smith “the kind of defender who can instantly transform the identity of an entire unit,” and the ex-Bulldog ranked fifth among linebackers in run stop percentage and sixth in tackling efficiency, per the PFF 2018 Draft Guide.

Turning to free agents, Zach Brown, Tahir Whitehead, Anthony Hitchens, and NaVorro Bowman figure to earn the largest contracts among 4-3 linebackers. Whitehead and Hitchens are coming off productive seasons and are both age-27 or younger, so they should command multi-year deals. Brown and Bowman will probably require contracts in excess of one season, although Brown’s 2017 decline and Bowman’s age could limit their overall markets.

On the cheaper side, the Bengals could look to Mason Foster, whose asking price should be reduced given that injuries limited him to five appearances last season. Christian Jones has been written out of the Bears’ defensive plans (just 10% playing time in 2017), but he’s just 26 years old. Barkevious Mingo is a failed former first-round pick who can’t rush the passer, but he graded as the second-best coverage linebacker in the league a year ago, per PFF. Finally, Demario Davis just finished the best season of his career, but his age (29) and spotty record of play through six pro seasons could make him affordable.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: New England Patriots

March 3rd, 2017 at 8:44am CST by Ben Levine

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors has been detailing each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We conclude the series today with the Super Bowl champs.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Martellus Bennett, TE
LeGarrette Blount, RB
Brandon Bolden, RB
Alan Branch, DT
Malcolm Butler, CB
Justin Coleman, CB
James Develin, RB
Cameron Fleming, OT
Michael Floyd, WR
Duron Harmon, S
Dont’a Hightower, LB
Brandon King, S
Matt Lengel, TE (ERFA)
Chris Long, DE
Barkevious Mingo, LB
Logan Ryan, CB
Greg Scruggs, TE
Jabaal Sheard, DE
Michael Williams, TE

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Tom Brady, QB: $14MM
Nate Solder, LT: $11.17MM
Devin McCourty, S: $10.94MM
Danny Amendola, WR: $7.8MM
Rob Gronkowski, TE: $6.75MM
Julian Edelman, WR: $5.75MM
Patrick Chung, S: $5.4MM
Stephen Gostkowski, K: $4.5MM
Marcus Cannon, LT: $3.37MM
Shea McClellin, LB: $3.2MM

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over The Cap): $59,667,426
No. 32 overall pick in draft

Three needs:

1) Help on the Defensive Line: With linebacker Dont’a Hightower and cornerback Malcolm Butler set to hit free agency, most pundits will say that those two positions should be the Patriots’ main priority as they head into the draft and free agency.

However, the team should be absolutely fine at both spots, even in the unlikely event that both of these top free agents depart. Now, there’s nothing to suggest that the potential linebacker or cornerback replacements would immediately replace the production of Hightower and/or Butler. Rather, history tells us that the Patriots will adequately fill those roles with rookies or veterans.

Hightower didn’t have his most productive season when it comes to plain statistics. In 13 games, the former first-rounder finished with 65 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and one forced fumble. Of course, the 26-year-old proved his worth in the Super Bowl, where he collected a sack and a key forced fumble. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) was particularly fond of his performance this past season, as the website ranked him as the 12^th best linebacker in 2016 (as well as the second best at his position in pass rushing).

The organization made it clear that they were committed to Hightower following the trades of impending free agents Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones. Despite the team’s abundance of cap room, it was unlikely that the organization would be able (or willing) to sign the trio to lengthy, lucrative contracts. By moving on from the other talented defenders, the front office made it clear that Hightower was going to be the anchor of their defense for years to come.

That sentiment still seems to be the case, although a recent report indicated that the team wasn’t going to slap Hightower with their franchise tag. The linebacker presumably won’t command the franchise tag’s $14.7MM annual salary in free agency (although it may be close), so this news seems to be more of a financial decision, and there haven’t been any reports suggesting that the Patriots are prepared to move on without Hightower. Rather, I’d expect the team to approach his situation similarly to how they handled Devin McCourty’s free agency. They’ll offer the linebacker a contract and allow him to shop around for better offers from inferior teams. Assuming Hightower gets a better offer, he’ll presumably allow the Patriots to match. Therefore, the ball still seems to be in the organization’s court.

If Hightower does leave the Patriots, the team’s remaining linebackers shouldn’t be relied on to fill his starting role. Following the trade of Collins, coach Bill Belichick relied on a rotation of Elandon Roberts, Shea McClellin, Barkevious Mingo, Kyle Van Noy, and Rob Ninkovich (when he wasn’t playing defensive end) to play opposite Hightower. While the Patriots were able to rely on the hot hand through the rest of the season and the playoffs, it’d be tough to rely on two of those guys as starters next season.

Fortunately, in the event that Hightower does leave town, the Patriots shouldn’t be overly worried. While the team has generally struck out on all of their recent late-round linebackers (Xzavier Dickson, anyone?), the team has had plenty of success drafting the position in the first two rounds. Hightower, Collins, Jerod Mayo, and Brandon Spikes are among the team’s successful linebackers taken in the first two rounds of the draft. Furthermore, there’s plenty of depth at the position in free agency, and a number of aging veterans could adequately fit the role that the Patriots coaching staff is seeking. After all, the team doesn’t need a game-changer at linebacker. Instead, they just need someone who is capable in pass protection and stopping the run. Of course, all of this is moot if Hightower re-signs with the team.

Butler’s situation is a bit different than Hightower’s. There’s no denying that the cornerback is one of the most indispensable members of the Patriots defense, and his role is arguably more essential to the Patriots’ success than Hightower’s. The former undrafted free agent put his name on the map during the 2015 Super Bowl, and he was solid during his first season as a starter. In 2016, the 26-year-old established himself as one of the top cornerbacks in the game. Butler finished the campaign with 63 tackles, two fumbles recoveries, and four interceptions, and PFF ranked him as the seventh-best cornerback in the NFL.

Logan Ryan may have had his best season in a Patriots uniform (ranking 16^th among cornerbacks by PFF), but there’s no way the former third-rounder can be relied on as a number-one cornerback (not to mention that he’s a free agent himself). Additionally, former Eagles cornerback Eric Rowe flashed plenty of potential during his nine games this season, and the squad clearly thinks highly of rookie Cyrus Jones. Still, there’s no reason to think that any of these players could step in and seamlessly replace Butler.

Fortunately for the Patriots, Butler is a restricted free agent, so the team will have the opportunity to match any contract he receives. Belichick has shown that he’s willing to spend big on the position (Darrelle Revis and Aqib Talib come to mind), so it’d be a shock if the team let Butler walk without a clear replacement in place. His return is all but inevitable, and that means cornerback shouldn’t be a position of need.

That brings me back to my original point. While a hypothetical Butler or Hightower departure would certainly open a giant hole on the depth chart, no part of the Patriots defense needs as much work as the defensive line. The team’s pass rush was plenty impressive during the Super Bowl, but the unit struggled for stretches during the season. Despite finishing the season as one of the top defenses in the NFL, the Patriots still ranked 16^th in sacks (34) and failed to develop a consistent pass-rush.

Furthermore, while Hightower and Butler more-or-less seem to be shoo-ins to return to New England, many of the team’s impending defensive line free agents do not. Chris Long already made it clear that he won’t be returning next season, and Alan Branch may be looking for a payday following the best season of his career (49 tackles, 1.5 sacks, one forced fumble). Jabaal Sheard is also set to be a free agent, and I’m not convinced that he’ll return after getting benched during the regular season.

Fortunately, the team does have some young stars on the defensive line in Trey Flowers and Malcom Brown. Flowers was a revelation this past season as he essentially replaced Chandler Jones in the lineup. After sitting out his entire rookie campaign, the former fourth-rounder responded with 45 tackles and seven sacks in 2016. Meanwhile, Brown looked a lot more confident during his second season in the league, compiling 50 tackles and three sacks while ranking as PFF’s 31^st-best interior defender. The Patriots can at least take solace in the fact that they have two spots on their defensive line covered.

However, considering the impending free agency of Long, Sheard, and Branch, the Patriots could be lacking depth at multiple positions, and these players all played an integral role in the team having one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The draft seems to have plenty of talented edge defenders, so the team could theoretically use several of their picks to fill that depth. The team could also look to free agency to fill those holes, especially if they’re seeking the play-making type of player they lost when they traded Jones.

2) Offensive Skill-Player Depth: It seems a bit silly to suggest that the Patriots need even more offensive reinforcement, especially when the team finished towards the top of the league in most offensive categories this past season. The team especially showcased that depth in the Super Bowl, as Tom Brady completed a pass to seven different receivers. Still, you can never use enough depth when it comes to offensive skill players, and the offense could take a considerable hit depending on how the offseason shapes out.

It likely starts at tight end, where Martellus Bennett is set to get paid. The veteran bounced back following an underwhelming 2015 campaign in Chicago, collecting 55 receptions for 701 yards and seven touchdowns. The 29-year-old is obviously getting older, but his ability to serve as a dependable big target will certainly earn him a huge contract this offseason. He isn’t vital to the Patriots offensive success, but the team has proved that they’re even more dangerous when they have a pair of pass-catching tight ends on the field.

The status of Rob Gronkowski could also play a role in Bennett’s future with the team. The 27-year-old hasn’t played in 16 games since 2011, and his 25 receptions for 540 yards and three touchdowns were all career-lows. While there have been trade rumors surrounding the talented tight end, I’m under the belief that the team would be foolish to bail on him in a year where he holds an incredibly affordable $6.75MM cap hit. Gronk’s presence doesn’t necessarily deemphasize Bennett’s role in the offense, as the two showed that they can co-exist. Still, the team might not be willing to invest big money in Bennett if they’re planning on keeping Gronkowski long-term.

In the case that Bennett does leave, the team will surely bring in another veteran tight end who could catch the ball (Rob Housler and another scrapheap tight end will presumably fill the role of blocking tight end). Vernon Davis, Jermaine Gresham, and Jared Cook would fit the mold of the veteran, pass-catching tight end.

The team is set when it comes to their pass-catching running back, as the team can rely on the two-headed monster of Dion Lewis and James White. However, starting running back LeGarrette Blount is set to be a free agent, and there’s no guarantee that the veteran will be back – no matter what kind of pay cut he’s willing to take.

The 30-year-old had his best NFL season in 2016, compiling 1,161 yards and a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns. While those numbers are certainly eye-popping, a further look implies that the stats may be more a product of opportunity than talent. Blount finished second in the NFL with 299 carries, and his 3.9-yards-per-carry (30^th in the NFL) implies the former sentiment. These numbers went down in the playoffs, as Blount averaged 3.1-yards-per-carry during the Patriots’ three postseason games.

There’s something to be said for Blount’s familiarity with the Patriots system, and the veteran presumably won’t command a huge contract (especially if he’s open to returning to New England). On the flip side, there’s also something to be said for looking for minor improvements, and a more reliable running back could help preserve the aging Brady. Plus, this year’s crop of free agent running backs could allow the Patriots to secure an upgrade without breaking the bank.

Rival fans probably have nightmares of an Adrian Peterson, a Jamaal Charles, or even an Eddie Lacy joining the Patriots. I have a feeling that these players will likely command a contract the exceeds what New England is willing to offer, but it’d be surprising if the Patriots don’t at least explore these veteran options. The fact that the team stuck with Blount throughout the entire campaign indicates that they weren’t overly worried about his mediocre yards-per-carry stats, but the Patriots also won’t be willing to just hand him the starting role in 2017.

Wide receiver seemingly has the least amount of question marks, as Michael Floyd is the only bona fide member of the unit to hit free agency. I’m skeptical that veteran Danny Amendola will be willing to take another pay cut (especially following a successful postseason), so there’s probably a 50-50 chance that he could be gone. Julian Edelman will obviously be back as Brady’s binkie, while Chris Hogan is perfectly suited to be the team’s number-three wideout.

This means the team could be seeking another playmaker to play opposite Edelman. The Patriots could already have that option in-house with Malcolm Mitchell. You rarely see Brady trust a rookie as much as he did the fourth-round pick this past season, as Mitchell finished the campaign with 32 receptions for 401 yards and four touchdowns. The electric, speedy wideout should continue to improve, and that would eliminate the necessity to add another top receiver. On the flip side, Mitchell could follow the path of Aaron Dobson and Brandon Tate to become the next highly-touted Patriots receiver to peak too early.

3) A Trade Partner for Jimmy Garoppolo: Considering all of the team’s apparent needs, the biggest question surrounding the Patriots as they head into the offseason is the status of back-up quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The conclusion of the former second-rounder’s rookie contract is quickly approaching, so it’s apparent the Patriots need to make a decision sooner than later.

After serving as Belichick’s personal human victory cigar for the first two years of his career, Garoppolo looked like he was more than able to manage a team through his two starts in 2016. During that one-plus game sample, the quarterback completed 71-percent of his passes for 496 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Garoppolo ultimately sat out the next two games as he recovered from an AC joint sprain, and Brady was back from suspension by the time the young quarterback was ready to play.

Of course, we know how that story ended. Brady put up MVP numbers through his 12 regular season games, and he helped lead the Patriots to another Super Bowl championship. If there were any doubts regarding Brady’s future with the organization, they were certainly hushed following his postseason performance.

So why wouldn’t the Patriots want to keep their apparent heir apparent to Brady? The easy answer is money. Garoppolo will be hitting free agency following the 2017 season, and there’s no world where the organization will want to commit plus-$30MM to a pair of quarterbacks. After having seen teams commit themselves to the likes of Matt Flynn and Brock Osweiler, it shouldn’t be too shocking that rival organizations are rather infatuated with Garoppolo, and the quarterback will presumably earn a pretty penny when he reaches the open market. Therefore, instead of risking losing the quarterback for nothing, it’s in the Patriots’ best interest to trade Garoppolo while his value is at his highest.

The Patriots could theoretically head into next season with both Brady and Garoppolo (as well as second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett), and then be forced to make a decision next offseason. The team could always franchise Garoppolo before he hits free agency, and then they could deal him once he’s locked into that one-year contract. This certainly isn’t an awful route. If Brady shows a sudden Peyton Manning-like decline, the team already has their replacement ready to go. If Brady continues cruising, they can simply trade Garoppolo. On the flip side, if the team trades Garoppolo and Brady shows signed of decline, the team could be forced to hand the reigns to Brissett. While the rookie looked competent during his two starts in 2016, he’s yet to prove that he can even reach Garoppolo’s level.

However, the old sports adage says that players lose trade value every day that they remain on their current team. With a weak crop of quarterbacks in this year’s draft and an abundance of aging veteran signal-callers littering the free agency pool, team’s hoping to get a jump start on their rebuild will want their franchise quarterback as soon as possible. Therefore, it’s likely that the Patriots will receive the best Garoppolo trade offers this offseason as opposed to next.

Former Brady backups like Matt Cassel and Brian Hoyer proved to be capable quarterbacks, but they certainly weren’t franchise players. Still, that fear won’t stop other teams from offering a haul for Garoppolo. The Browns, 49ers, and Bears are three of the more popular teams when it comes to rumors surrounding the quarterback, and as our own Connor Byrne noted, the Browns second first-rounder (12^th overall) may convince the organization to pull the trigger on a Garoppolo trade.

As of right now, a trade seems unlikely, as reports from earlier this week indicated that the Patriots are not expected to trade their young signal-caller. Of course, this could just be a leverage attempt from the organization. For what it’s worth, more than 72-percent of our readers believe New England should indeed trade their young quarterback.

During the Patriots victory parade, Belichick started an awkward “No Days Off!” chant. We can only assume that the front office will be working tirelessly as they presumably look to trade Garoppolo before the upcoming draft.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: New York Jets

March 1st, 2017 at 11:04am CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New York Jets, who finished 2016 with a 5-11 record, last in the AFC East.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Antonio Allen, S
Brandon Bostick, TE (RFA)
Mike Catapano, DL
Ryan Clady, T
Kellen Davis, TE
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
Erin Henderson, LB
Ben Ijalana, T
Wesley Johnson, C (RFA)
Corey Lemonier, LB
Josh Martin, LB
Tanner Purdum, LS
Geno Smith, QB
Marcus Williams, CB (RFA)

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Muhammad Wilkerson, DL: $18,000,000
Eric Decker, WR: $8,750,000
Buster Skrine, CB: $8,500,000
Sheldon Richardson, DL: $8,069,000
Brian Winters, G: $8,000,000
Brandon Marshall, WR: $7,500,000
Marcus Gilchrist, S: $7,375,000
James Carpenter, G: $6,805,000
David Harris, LB: $6,500,000
Leonard Williams, DL: $5,081,146

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $27,278,320
Sixth pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for S Calvin Pryor

Three Needs:

1. Find a franchise quarterback — or at least a stopgap: Consider where the Jets stood at quarterback position at the end of the 2016 preseason. Ryan Fitzpatrick had led New York to a 10-6 record and a near-playoff berth the year prior, and while the tape clearly indicated Fitzpatrick hadn’t transformed into an elite signal-caller, he had tossed 31 touchdowns and posted the best season of his career in 2016. Former fourth-round pick Bryce Petty was coming off an exhibition campaign that had seen him throw for nearly 500 yards, three touchdowns, and complete this gem to Robby Anderson, and while rookie second-rounder Christian Hackenberg admittedly struggled during the preseason, a rose-colored lens might have offered some hope on the 51st overall selection.

Fast forward to 2017, and any optimism regarding Gang Green’s quarterbacks has vanished. Despite finishing 27th in passes attempted, Fitzpatrick threw the league’s third-most interceptions, and while his contract has since expired, he’ll still count for $5MM in dead money on New York’s 2017 salary cap. Petty started four games but posted an even higher interception rate than Fiztpatrick, while Hackenberg never managed to get on the field, even in the midst of a lost season. Jets management now regards Petty and Hackenberg as nothing more than potential backups, and the club is essentially back to square one under center.

As usual, the free agent quarterback market is extremely lackluster, and contains only one player — the Buccaneers’ Mike Glennon — who could reasonably be considered a long-term option. Glennon, 27, has only thrown 11 passes over the past two seasons, but as the only available signal-caller who has both youth and a history of success on his side, he could be in for a nice payday. The Jets are reportedly interested in Glennon, but it’s doubtful they’ll pay the $13-15MM annual salary Glennon is apparently targeting.

Other passers will hit the open market next week, but none offer any sort of upside and are better viewed as potential bridge options. Brian Hoyer, Nick Foles, Josh McCown, Geno Smith (just kidding!), Case Keenum, Matt Schaub, and the like aren’t going to take the Jets to the postseason in 2017, but they could hold down the fort while the club develops a rookie. Jay Cutler is also a possibility for New York after he’s released by the Bears, while general manager Mike Maccagnan & Co. could hypothetically explore trades. The Patriots aren’t going to ship Jimmy Garoppolo to a division rival, though (and may not trade him to anyone), while the Bengals might also hold onto A.J. McCarron.

If Gang Green doesn’t find what it’s looking for in free agency or via trade, it will likely turn its attention to the draft. Owners of the sixth overall pick, the Jets will have the opportunity to select a quarterback if they so choose. They’ve already been linked to UNC’s Mitch Trubisky, who is being considered by multiple quarterback-needy teams at the top of the draft and may not even be on the board at No. 6. If Trubisky is still available, however, opposing clubs believe New York will run to turn in its card.

“They got their eyes set on the North Carolina quarterback,” one rival scout said in December. “The Jets are all over this kid. All over him. They’ll probably deny it if you ask, but they love that kid. That’s their guy. They’re not going to get him though, because I think that kid is going to get over-drafted.”

Clemson’s Deshaun Watson is also reportedly on the Jets’ radar, while other players such as Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer or Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes could be in the cards at the top of the second round (or later in the first if New York trades back). Even if New York signs Glennon (and especially if they only bring in a stopgap option), the Jets should look into spending a mid-round pick on a quarterback. Yes, the club has already witnessed two early-to-mid-round choices waste away on the bench, but a rebuilding club can never take enough bites at the QB apple. Brad Kaaya (Miami), Nathan Peterman (Pitt), Davis Webb (Cal), and Chad Kelly (Ole Miss) could come off the board on Day 2 or later.

2. Beef up the offensive line: The Jets have already parted ways with three of their top offensive linemen over the past few weeks, releasing center Nick Mangold and right tackle Breno Giacomini while opting not to exercise left tackle Ryan Clady‘s 2017 option. New York is probably set at the other two line positions, as guards Brian Winters and James Carpenter are in the midst of long-term contracts. But Gang Green needs to bolster the rest of its front five, or else its presumed acquisition at quarterback won’t have a chance to stay upright.

At left tackle, the Jets may turn to an internal replacement, as the club is already working to re-sign Ben Ijalana. While New York could face competition for Ijalana’s services, the recent infusion of talent to the free agent left tackle market should drive down Ijalana’s price and force him back to the Big Apple. Ijalana isn’t a spectacular blindside protector by any means, as he graded as just the No. 60 left tackle in the league last season, per Pro Football Focus. But he offers experience after posting 13 starts in 2016, and would give the Jets some sense of stability on the left side.

New York could also look to bring back Clady at a lower rate, or search the open market for options at both left and right tackle. Given that they’re beginning a rebuild, the Jets shouldn’t be targeting too many veteran free agents, and may want to set a cutoff age — say, 29 — to use in its evaluations. As such, free agents like Andrew Whitworth, Andre Smith, Gosder Cherilus, or even Clady (age-30) should be eschewed in favor of younger players. Ricky Wagner, Riley Reiff, Kelvin Beachum, Matt Kalil , and Russell Okung (in whom they’ve already expressed interest) could all garner consideration from the Jets, although the club could easily get priced out of their respective markets.

Sitting at pick No. 6 in the first round, the Jets probably aren’t in position to select an offensive lineman in what is considered a weak crop of front five players. In need of bulk draft picks, however, New York should entertain a trade down into the mid-teens or twenties, collecting more assets in the process and putting itself in a better place to draft a lineman. In the middle of Day 1, tackles such as Ryan Ramczyk (Wisconsin), Garett Bolles (Utah), and Cam Robinson (Alabama) could make sense for the Jets. If New York goes after a quarterback in Round 1 and waits until later in the draft to find a tackle, Antonio Garcia (Troy), Adam Bisnowaty (Pitt), and Taylor Moton (Western Michigan) will get consideration.

On the interior, the Jets seem likely to promote center Wesley Johnson into the starting lineup. Johnson, though, is a restricted free agent, and given his newly important status on New York’s front five, the Jets may now have to tender him at the second-round level at a cost of $2.7-$2.8MM. Like Ijalana at left tackle, Johnson was relatively inexperienced heading into last season, but managed eight starts during the 2016 campaign. Playing 657 offensive snaps, the 26-year-old Johnson graded as the NFL’s No. 33 center, per PFF.

While there aren’t a ton of center options in free agency, the Jets would do well to make a run at the Packers’ J.C. Tretter, whom Green Bay is not expected to prioritize next week. Tretter, only 26, boasts experience all along the offensive line (even including left tackle), and thus could act as a starter on the inside or at right tackle, while serving as depth at other positions. If New York wants to go after a pivot in the draft, LSU’s Ethan Pocic, Ohio State’s Pat Elflein, and West Virginia’s Tyler Orlosky will be available on Day 2, according to Dane Brugler and Rob Rang of CBSSports.com‘s rankings.

3. Fix the pass defense: The Jets, along with perhaps the 49ers and Browns, are projected to field one of the most barren rosters in the NFL, so we’ll cheat a bit here and combine two need areas into one. New York ranked 31st in DVOA in pass defense, so the club clearly needs to ameliorate not only its secondary, but its pass rush as well.

Gang Green is reportedly mulling a pursuit of a high-profile cornerback on the free agent market, and with Darrelle Revis already gone, and Buster Skrine also a possibility to get cut, the Jets may need to add several defensive backs simply to be competitive in 2017. None of the Jets’ corners graded among the top 60 CBs in the NFL last season, per PFF, so the club certainly could add a marquee defender such as A.J. Bouye, Stephon Gilmore, or Morris Claiborne, or Dre Kirkpatrick. New York also needs depth in the secondary, though, so it may target a second-tier corner like Kayvon Webster, Sterling Moore, or even failed former first-rounder D.J. Hayden.

The Jets might consider selecting a corner at the top of Round 1, but the only CB with that high a pedigree is Ohio State’s Marshon Lattimore, whom Todd McShay of ESPN.com recently mocked to New York. Lattimore, whom Lance Zierlein of NFL.com favorably compares to Vontae Davis, would give the Jets a long-term option at cornerback who would presumably start on Day 1. New York could also look at safeties at pick No. 6, but probably only if it releases or trades Marcus Gilchrist or Calvin Pryor. Jamal Adams (LSU) or Malik Hooker (Ohio State) might be on the board if Gilchrist or Pryor goes, and the Jets probably won’t dive back into the free agent safety market if it cut ties with one or both of those veterans.

Even more pressing is New York’s pass rush, which posted only 26 sacks and ranked dead last in adjusted sack rate. 2015 third-round selection Lorenzo Mauldin hasn’t shown much during his two years in the league, while Sheldon Richardson — miscast as an outside linebacker — is still on the trade block. Rookie Jordan Jenkins put up a surprisingly solid showing in 2016, but the Jets’ edge rushing corps, which also includes Julian Stanford and Freddie Bishop, needs a lot of work.

As noted above, the Jets should only be targeting youthful free agents as they begin their rebuild, so someone like Nick Perry (26) would be a good fit. But now that Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram, and Jason Pierre-Paul have all been assigned the franchise tag, Perry is the top edge defender on the market and will be looking to cash in. Much of the free agent pass rushing market is comprised by veterans such as Julius Peppers and Lorenzo Alexander that shouldn’t interest New York, but the club could take a look at John Simon, who’s been overshadowed by J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney in Houston. Ryan Davis, who made the transition to outside ‘backer last season, is another low-cost option.

The Jets won’t get a shot at Myles Garrett in the draft, but they could identify Taco Charlton or Derek Barnett as worthwhile picks at No. 6. Possible choices on Day 2 (or later in Round 1 if New York trades down) include Tim Williams (Alabama), Takkarist McKinley (UCLA), T.J. Watt (Wisconsin), or Ryan Anderson (Alabama). One other name to watch is Villanova’s Tanoh Kpassagnon, whom Mike Mayock of NFL.com calls a “freak athlete” and says could go as high as the second round or as low as the fourth.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Dallas Cowboys

February 27th, 2017 at 10:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Dallas Cowboys, who rode two rookie offensive stars to a 13-3 record and the NFC East title.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Brice Butler, WR
Brandon Carr, CB
Barry Church, S
Morris Claiborne, CB
Jonathan Cooper, G
Jack Crawford, DE
Ryan Davis, DE/LB
Lance Dunbar, RB
Justin Durant, LB
Gavin Escobar, TE
Andrew Gachkar, LB
David Irving, DE (ERFA)
Ronald Leary, G
Rolando McClain, LB
Terrell McClain, DT
Darren McFadden, RB
Kellen Moore, QB
Mark Sanchez, QB
Josh Thomas, CB
J.J. Wilcox, S
Terrance Williams, WR

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Tony Romo, QB: $24,700,000
Dez Bryant, WR: $17,000,000
Sean Lee, LB: $12,450,000
Jason Witten, TE: $12,262,000
Tyrone Crawford, DL: $10,350,000
Tyron Smith, T: $8,820,000
Doug Free, T: $7,500,000
Ezekiel Elliott, RB: $5,671,895
Orlando Scandrick, CB: $5,281,021
Travis Frederick, C: $4,531,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $4,236,937
28th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for G Zack Martin

Three Needs:

1. Part ways with Tony Romo: The Cowboys cleared a good deal of cap space last week by restructuring the contracts of offensive linemen Tyron Smith and Travis Frederick, but they still have the worst cap situation in the league. That doesn’t account for one move that Dallas will almost assuredly make this offseason, however, as the club can create a bit more financial wiggle room by cutting ties with veteran quarterback Tony Romo, either through trade or release.

Romo’s future figures to be the dominant Cowboys storyline this offseason, and while the team could attempt to trade him in the coming weeks, a deal seems unlikely, particularly for financial reasons. Thanks to multiple contract restructures, nearly $20MM in prorated Romo bonus money is on the Dallas books over the next three seasons. If the Cowboys were to ship Romo to another club, the entirety of that total — $19.6MM, to be exact — would accelerate onto Dallas’ cap, an untenable outcome given the state of team’s salary cap.

Additionally, it’s unclear how much interest Romo would generate on the trade market, and/or what type of draft pick compensation the Cowboys could expect to reap. At least one rival club, the Broncos, seem to have no wish to entertain a trade for Romo, and would only be willing to sign him as a free agent. The theoretical price tag on Romo has varied wildly, as some executives have speculated the Cowboys could acquire a second-round pick for Romo, while other evaluators think a mid- to late-round conditional draft choice is more likely.

One factor working in Dallas’ favor is that a number of teams have already been linked to Romo, which could hypothetically raise the draft cost enough that a trade would make sense from the Cowboys’ perspective. The Chiefs, Bills, Broncos, Redskins, and Texans have all been mentioned as possible suitors for Romo, and if enough members of that list has serious interest, Dallas could start a bidding war and secure a relatively high draft choice. Romo is reportedly open to “massaging” his contract — likely by accepting some sort of paycut or restructure — which could make him even more attractive to interested parties.

From a fiscal standpoint, though, a release of Romo represents a far more palatable situation than a trade. Specifically, the Cowboys would need to designate Romo as a post-June 1 cut, which would allow Romo to hit the market now and only keep the accelerated $19.6MM dead money charge on Dallas’ salary cap until early June, at which point the dead money would be reduced to just $10.7MM. Gaining nearly $9MM in cap space in the summer isn’t going to help the Cowboys ink any marquee free agents, but it would help the club sign its draft class, bring in street free agents, and plan for unexpected financial charges that occur throughout a season.

Romo, for what’s it worth, expects to be cut rather than traded, and it’s possible that his close relationship with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones will allow the 13-year pro to secure his release and then choose his next club himself. Speculatively, such an outcome could come with a handshake agreement between Jones and Romo that the latter won’t sign with a rival like Washington.

If and when the Cowboys cut ties with Romo, they’ll need a new backup quarterback to play behind Dak Prescott. Dallas reportedly has mutual interest with former Browns signal-caller Josh McCown, while the Cowboys could also conceivably re-sign either Mark Sanchez or Kellen Moore, both of whom are unrestricted free agents. Other available quarterbacks who may intrigue the Cowboys include Case Keenum, Nick Foles, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Christian Ponder.

2. Improve the pass rush: Under coordinator Rod Marinelli, the Cowboys’ defense has performed much better than was to be expected given the club’s level of talent. Dallas’ front office has consistently invested more resources on the offensive side of the ball, but the Cowboys defense has finished in the middle of the pack in DVOA during Marinelli’s three-year run as coordinator.

The one area of the Dallas defense that hasn’t over-performed in recent years has been the defensive line, but that’s not for lack of trying on the part of the Cowboys. Defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford was signed to a five-year, $45MM extension after only a single season of production, a deal that looks like an overpay in hindsight. Defensive end Demarcus Lawrence was selected at the top of the second round, but has dealt with injuries and a suspension and is now entering the final year of his rookie contract. And just last offseason, the Cowboys signed away defensive lineman Cedric Thornton from the division rival Eagles and inked former Raider Benson Mayowa to a restricted free agent offer sheet that wasn’t matched.

Randy Gregory, like Lawrence, is a former second-round pick, but isn’t part of the Cowboys’ plans after being hit with a yearlong suspension last month. Thornton is a candidate for release after only one season in Dallas, while fellow defensive lineman Terrell McClain, Jack Crawford, and Ryan Davis are all unrestricted free agents. As such, the Cowboys need to add both an impact player and depth along the front four, something Jerry Jones admitted earlier this month by saying he wants to bring in “one of these war daddies that takes two to block.”

The first place the Cowboys can look for pass rushing talent is the free agent market, but given their salary cap troubles, the club doesn’t figure to go after one of the top options such as Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram, or Jason Pierre-Paul. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap wrote yesterday, when a 30-year-old rotational defensive end like Mario Addison lands $7.5MM annually, the game-changing edge defenders are in for a massive payday in a league where the cap is nearing $170MM. Dallas will have to look for bargains on the open market, but luckily there are cost-effective players readily available.

DeMarcus Ware has already been linked to the Cowboys, as the 34-year-old is reportedly “leaving the door open” for a return to Dallas, where he racked up 117 racks from 2005-13. Ware has missed 11 games over the past two seasons, and both fractured his arm and required back surgery in 2016, but he could still offer the Cowboys his pass rushing talent, especially if his snaps are limited. Other veteran defensive lineman that could interest the Cowboys include Julius Peppers, Charles Johnson, Dwight Freeney, Nick Fairley (if his price tag drops), and the recently-released Jared Odrick.

If Dallas does sign an experienced edge rusher, they’ll likely try to pair him with a rookie, and could certainly expend a first-round pick on the position. At pick No. 28, the Cowboys should have a bevy of players to choose from: both Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com and Josh Norris of Rotoworld recently mocked Missouri’s Charles Harris to Dallas, while Todd McShay of ESPN.com sent Tim Williams (Alabama) to Big D. Other pass rushers who could make sense for Dallas on Day 1 or 2 include Michigan’s Taco Charlton, Tennessee’s Derek Barnett, Auburn’s Carl Lawson (whom Rob Rang of CBSSports.com favorably compares to Freeney), Temple’s Haason Reddick, and Wisconsin’s T.J. Watt.

One final area the Cowboys should trawl is the trade market, in which they reportedly made an offer for the Jets’ Sheldon Richardson last year. Richardson, of course, has dealt with motivation, effort, and tardiness issues, but Dallas has been willing to acquire players with off-field concerns in the past. On the field, Richardson wasn’t all that successful, either, but the 26-year-old may see better results by moving into a 4-3 scheme. New York is now aiming for a third-round pick in exchange for Richardson, and if the Cowboys can negotiate that ask down to a fourth- or fifth-rounder, they could take the leap on a troubled but talented player.

3. Sort out the secondary: After addressing the defensive line, the Cowboys need to work on the defensive backfield in order to further limit opposing quarterbacks. That effort will start internally, as four of Dallas’ key secondary players are heading for unrestricted free agency. Cornerbacks Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr and safeties Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox are all scheduled to hit the open market on March 9, meaning the Cowboys will need to line up their priorities.

Church is probably the most obvious candidate to return, as the 29-year-old posted the best season of his career in 2016, grading as the league’s No. 11 safety per Pro Football Focus. Given his age and his limited track record, Church shouldn’t cost too much to retain, and may even be open to some sort of hometown discount. Wilcox, on the other hand, is younger than Church, but as Andy Benoit of Sports Illustrated recently tweeted, Wilcox struggles with “coverage discipline” and likely won’t be a primary concern for the Cowboys this offseason.

At corner, Dallas shouldn’t be inclined to re-sign Claiborne, even though he finally lived up to his first-round billing by playing especially well last year. Claiborne had never reached that ceiling before, however, and the Cowboys needn’t simply extend a new contract to the 27-year-old based on one year of production. Given that Claiborne will likely find a larger deal in free agency, the Cowboys should instead focus on retaining Carr, who’s been a steadier presence in the secondary. Dallas also boasts slot corner Orlando Scandrick and surprisingly effective 2016 sixth-rounder Anthony Brown, so the club has depth in the event a free agent or two defects.

If the Cowboys decide to add another cornerback, it will likely be through the draft. Dallas selected defensive back Byron Jones in 2015, but placed him in the back end where he’s since become one of the NFL’s best safeties (and an excellent special teamer). Drafting a more traditional corner could be in the cards this time around, and Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com mocked Teez Tabor (Florida) to Dallas in his most recent mock draft. Other options that could be available near the end of the first round include Sidney Jones (Washington), Tre’Davious White (LSU), Quincy Wilson (Florirda), or Gareon Conley (Ohio State). The Cowboys might also target safety depth on Day 2 of the draft, and they’ve already been linked to Texas A&M’s Josh Evans.

Dallas may look the free agent market as it hunts for another corner, but it won’t spend at the top of the market in order to sign someone like A.J. Bouye or Stephon Gilmore. Instead, a pair of veterans stand out as potential Cowboys targets: Terence Newman and Leon Hall. Newman, of course, was drafted by the Cowboys way back in 2003 and spent the first nine years of his career in Dallas. Entering his age-39 season, Newman is still getting it done in the secondary, and though he’ll surely fall off at some point, there’s no indication that decline will come in 2017. Hall, meanwhile, visited the Cowboys last year before signing with the Giants, and could offer Dallas experience at both corner and safety.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Pittsburgh Steelers

February 22nd, 2017 at 9:58pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who won the AFC North with an 11-5 record before falling to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Kevin Anderson, LB (ERFA)
Le’Veon Bell, RB
Ross Cockrell, CB (RFA)
B.J. Finney, C (ERFA)
James Harrison, LB
Chris Hubbard, G (RFA)
David Johnson, TE
Jarvis Jones, LB
Landry Jones, QB
Cole Manhart, G (ERFA)
Ricardo Mathews, DL
Shamarko Thomas, S
Lawrence Timmons, LB
Valerian Ume-Ezeoke, C (ERFA)
Alejandro Villanueva, T (ERFA)
Cody Wallace, C
Markus Wheaton, WR
DeAngelo Williams, RB

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $18,200,000
Antonio Brown, WR: $13,618,334
Maurkice Pouncey, C: $11,051,000
David DeCastro, G: $11,050,000
Cameron Heyward, DL: $10,400,000
Mike Mitchell, S: $8,135,416
Marcus Gilbert, T: $7,308,500
Ladarius Green, TE: $6,187,500
Ramon Foster, G: $3,591,666
Ryan Shazier, LB: $3,025,020

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $36,308,733
30th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for LB Ryan Shazier

Three Needs:

1. Bring in a new linebacker: The Steelers have a history of developing linebackers, but the two of club’s past three first-round selections at the position haven’t exactly panned out (thus far, at least). Jarvis Jones has been the most obvious failure, as the former 17th overall pick has managed only six sacks over four seasons in Pittsburgh. “Failure” might be too strong a word, as Jones is a capable run defender who probably ranks as an average NFL linebacker. But he’s not the type of edge presence the Steelers were hoping to land with a first-round pick.

Bud Dupree, meanwhile, was chosen two years after Jones, and offered a much different collegiate profile, boasting more natural athleticism but less statistical production. He’s been a bit more productive than Jones during his two years with the Steelers (8.5 sacks from 2015-16), but Dupree has earned far worse marks from Pro Football Focus, grading poorly against both the run and pass. Still only 24 years old, however, Dupree showed marked improvement from Year 1 to Year 2, and should see his snap percentage increase in 2017.

Jones is a pending free agent and not expected back, but the same can’t be said for fellow free agents James Harrison and Lawrence Timmons, each of whom Pittsburgh is working to re-sign. Harrison is the more likely to return, and it could be a matter of time until the veteran pass rusher formally inks a new deal with the Steelers. General manager Kevin Colbert wants to bring Timmons back into the fold, as well, but admitted the 30-year-old could find better offers on the open market.

If Timmons departs, Pittsburgh could need to find a new inside linebacker to play next to Pro Bowler Ryan Shazier. The club would have at least one internal candidate to fill that role, as Vince Williams put up a decent showing in 2016 on roughly a quarter of the Steelers’ defensive snaps. While Pittsburgh likely won’t invest financial resources to bring in a free agent inside ‘backer (unless it’s someone who can contribute on special teams like Jon Bostic or Audie Cole), a mid-round draft pick on the position isn’t out of the question. LSU’s Kendell Beckwith, Wake Forest’s Marquel Lee, or Michigan’s Ben Gedeon could interest the Steelers on Day 2 or 3.

While adding an inside linebacker could be an area of focus, bringing in a new edge rusher should be a much higher priority for Pittsburgh this offseason. Indeed, targeting an outside linebacker at pick No. 30 will be a consideration for the Steelers, and perhaps even considered a likely proposition. Nearly every industry mock draft has sent a pass rusher to Pittsburgh, and both Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com agree Temple’s Haason Reddick, who put up 9.5 sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss last year, would be a logical fit. Takkarist McKinley (UCLA), Carl Lawson (Auburn), Charles Harris (Missouri), and Tim Williams (Alabama) are among the other prospects that could intrigue Pittsburgh at the end of Round 1.

Free agent pass rushers may also interest the Steelers, although the club is highly unlikely to spend extravagantly to lure a top-notch edge defender such as Melvin Ingram or even Jabaal Sheard — it’s simply not the club’s style. However, Pittsburgh should go bargain-hunting and find another veteran to play alongside Harrison, especially if it doesn’t find what it’s looking for in the draft. Erik Walden and Alex Okafor could make sense on short-term contracts, while longtime NFL pass rusher DeMarcus Ware would also look good in a Steelers uniform.

2. Add depth — or maybe even an elite player — at cornerback: On a macro level, the Steelers’ pass defense was above-average in 2016, as the club’s secondary finished 12th in DVOA against the pass. Dive a bit deeper into Football Outsider’s metrics, however, and it’s clear Pittsburgh has a problem: it can’t guard No. 1 wide receivers. While the Steelers fared well against secondary wideouts, slot men, and tight ends, they ranked dead last in DVOA against opponents’ top pass-catchers.

Pittsburgh has tried to paper over its cornerback problem with trades over the past two years, adding Brandon Boykin and Justin Gilbert in a pair of failed transactions. A fresh stategy needs to be in play in 2017, one that sees the Steelers targeting a high-profile player to fill out their secondary. Pittsburgh has taken this approach before, as the club is usually good for one major free agent signing every offseason.

If the Steelers want to go that route, they’ll enter a free agent cornerback market that is brimming with options. A.J. Bouye, who was listed at seventh overall on PFR’s most recent Free Agent Power Rankings, is the top CB headed for free agency, and at only 25 years old, he’s in for a massive payday. Pittsburgh could afford him, but given that Bouye essentially only has a single season of production under his belt, he may not be the rock-solid, shutdown defensive back the Steelers are looking for (though the potential is certainly there).

As such, the Rams’ Trumaine Johnson might make for a more suitable target. Fresh off his second consecutive above-average season, the 27-year-old Johnson is a candidate for another franchise tag, though it would cost Los Angeles 120% of his 2016 salary. If he does reach free agency, Johnson figures to target the five-year, $62.5MM his former teammate Janoris Jenkins signed with the Giants last spring. It’s an exorbitant price tag, but Johnson would give the Steelers a true No. 1 corner that should elevate their defense to the next level.

If Bouye and Johnson prove too expensive, Stephon Gilmore, Logan Ryan, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Morris Claiborne could instead be on the Steelers’ radar. Gilmore is probably the closest thing to an elite defensive back among that group (although he earned the lowest grade from Pro Football Focus in 2016), but he’s coming off a down season and may be too much of a risk for Pittsburgh. Ryan, Kirkpatrick, and Claiborne are all more complementary pieces rather than No. 1 corners, but adding high-end depth wouldn’t be a bad route for the Steelers to take. A signing of Kirkpatrick, notably, would represent the theft of a division rival’s top CB.

Depth could also be found farther down the list of free agents, as Brandon Carr (Cowboys), Jerraud Powers (Ravens), or even the recently-released Sam Shields could be of interest to the Steelers. If the club truly wants to find a top corner without paying market value, Pittsburgh could explore a deal for Browns defensive back Joe Haden, who was reportedly marketed at last year’s trade deadline. Cleveland may not have any inclination to send its best defensive player to its division foe, however, and trading Haden would leave the Browns with $6.8MM in dead money.

The Steelers have selected cornerbacks in the early rounds of each of the past two drafts, and while Artie Burns performed well during his rookie campaign in 2016, 2015 second-rounder Senquez Golson has yet to see the field due to a myriad of injuries. Colbert recently confessed Pittsburgh isn’t counting on Golson and may draft yet another defensive back this year, and a first-round pick is certainly a possibility. Sidney Jones (Washington), Tre’Davious White (LSU), Gareon Conley (Ohio State), and Quincy Wilson (Florida) are among the CBs that may be available at pick No. 30.

3. Start thinking about Ben Roethlisberger‘s replacement: The Steelers’ offense doesn’t really need any work. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are both considered among the best at their respective positions and are in line for new contracts, Martavis Bryant could soon return to give the club another boost, and Pittsburgh’s offensive line rates among the league’s finest. All told, Pittsburgh’s offense ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in scoring, yards, and DVOA.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was good, too — but perhaps not quite as good as usual. The veteran signal-caller’s completion percentage dropped by nearly 4%, while his Total Quarterback Rating slipped by 10 points. Roethlisberger’s availability continued to be a question mark, as well, as the soon-to-be 35-year-old failed to complete the regular season’s 16-game slate for the second consecutive year.

So while reports of Roethlisberger’s decline may be greatly exaggerated, the Steelers need to begin planning for a post-Ben existence, something Colbert acknowledged in a recent media session.

“Will we add a [quarterback]?” Colbert said. “Absolutely. When? It’s hard to say. Sooner or later we will have to address that.”

Pittsburgh wants to re-sign free agent backup QB Landry Jones, but he’s shown nothing to indicate he’d be a competent long-term replacement for Roethlisberger. Finding a young signal-caller in the draft, then, seems to be the best option going forward.

Mitch Trubisky (UNC) and Deshaun Watson (Clemson) figure to be off the board by the time the Steelers’ Day 1 choice rolls around, but Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer could still be available depending on how the first round shakes out. Day 2 prospects include Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech, Brad Kaaya of Miami, Nathan Peterman of Pitt, Davis Webb of Cal, and Chad Kelly of Ole Miss, the latter of whom scouts tend to think will fall to Day 3 based on injury and character questions.

The 2017 quarterback draft class is considered to be the worst in some time, and one evaluator recently told Matt Miller of Bleacher Report “all the quarterbacks…are terrible.” That sentiment could have a two-pronged negative effect for the Steelers — not only will signal-callers get artificially pushed up boards, potentially forcing the club to expend earlier draft capital, but Pittsburgh might not even be able to find a passer worth a selection late in the draft. Still, the Steelers need to find Roethlisberger’s successor at some point, and there’s never a better time than now.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: Baltimore Ravens

February 22nd, 2017 at 12:38pm CST by Rory Parks

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Baltimore Ravens, who have now missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in the John Harbaugh era. Despite calls for their dismissal, Harbaugh and his top assistants will be back in 2017 in what will likely be a do-or-die year for them. There is enough of a foundation for the club to make a playoff push in 2017, but they will need to have a strong offseason in order to return to the postseason.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Kamar Aiken, WR
Brennen Beyer, LB (ERFA)
Michael Campanaro, WR (RFA)
Vlad Ducasse, G
Matt Elam, S
Lawrence Guy, DE
Marqueston Huff, S (RFA)
James Hurst, OT (RFA)
Ryan Jensen, G (RFA)
Kyle Juszczyk, FB
Anthony Levine, S
Lamar Lewis, LB (ERFA)
Chris Lewis-Harris, CB (RFA)
Ryan Mallett, QB
Chris Matthews, WR (RFA)
Patrick Onwuasor, LB (ERFA)
Jerraud Powers, CB
Sheldon Price, CB
Keenan Reynolds, WR (ERFA)
Jumal Rolle, CB (RFA)
Ricky Wagner, OT
De’Ondre Wesley, OT (ERFA)
Terrance West, RB (RFA)
Brandon Williams, DT

Top 10 Cap Hits For 2017:

Joe Flacco, QB: $24,550,000
Jimmy Smith, CB: $12,600,00
Marshal Yanda, G: $9,125,220
Elvis Dumervil, LB: $8,375,000
Mike Wallace: $8,000,000
Dennis Pitta: $7,700,000
Lardarius Webb, S: $7,500,000
Terrell Suggs, LB: $6,950,0000
Eric Weddle, S: $5,750,000
Shareece Wright, CB: $5,333,333

Current Projected Cap Room (via Over the Cap): $15,387,844

Other:

Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for LB C.J. Mosley

Three Needs:

1) Wide Receiver Help: GM Ozzie Newsome’s greatest weakness has been his ability to draft difference-making wide receivers. Breshad Perriman, whom the team selected in the first round of the 2015 draft, missed his entire rookie campaign due to injury, and though he was able to stay healthy throughout the entire 2016 season and showed some flashes of his potential, the jury is decidedly out on the UCF product. As it stands now, ex-Raven Torrey Smith is the best receiver the club has ever drafted, and though he had a productive career in Baltimore, he does not belong in the same conversation as AFC North elites like Antonio Brown and A.J. Green.

As such, the team has been forced to rely on acquiring veteran possession receivers on the downside of their careers. Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Derrick Mason all enjoyed some success with the Ravens, and now that Smith has retired and Kamar Aiken appears to be on his way out, Baltimore will likely need to turn to free agency yet again. The market for veteran wideouts is fairly underwhelming, as the Ravens will likely not be in play for the biggest fish in the free agent pool, Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery will probably get a Green-esque contract, and the Ravens simply cannot afford to spend that much (nor is it their practice to make such a splash in free agency).

Pierre Garcon seems like a perfect fit, as he is a quality possession receiver who would nicely complement Perriman and Mike Wallace (the latter of whom has been discussed as a potential cap casualty, though given his production in 2016 and Baltimore’s dearth of receiver talent, it would be shocking if the Ravens were to part ways with Wallace). However, the Redskins would reportedly like to have Garcon back, and even if he does not return to Washington, the Ravens will face stiff competition for his services.

That leaves less appealing options like Kenny Britt and Brandon LaFell, as Terrelle Pryor will likely stay in Cleveland or will be too pricey for the Ravens’ liking, and Kenny Stills’ skill-set is too similar to that of Wallace and Perriman. Of course, the Ravens could always pounce on an intriguing cap casualty like Brandon Marshall — if he is released — or Victor Cruz, though such players come with plenty of question marks.

Unfortunately for the Ravens, who hold the No. 16 overall selection in the 2017 draft, this year’s rookie class of wide receivers is lacking in top-end talent. Clemson’s Mike Williams, the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in the class, has a nice combination of size and speed but could be off the board by the time the Ravens are on the clock. Western Michigan’s Corey Davis or USC’s JuJu Smith-Schuster should still be available, with Davis looking like the better all-around prospect (Smith-Schuster projects as a possession receiver at the next level).

Oct 15, 2016; Tucson, AZ, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (9) runs for a touchdown after making a catch against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half at Arizona Stadium. The Trojans won 48-14. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, the Ravens have several other glaring needs, and they may not be able to take a wideout with their first-round pick. If they choose to hold off, Mississippi’s Damore’ea Stringfellow or Louisiana Tech’s Carlos Henderson could be fits. In an ideal world, the Ravens would be able to land a player like Garcon in free agency and add a receiver prospect on the second day of the draft.

Further complicating matters on the offensive side of the ball is the potential departure of right tackle Ricky Wagner, who is eligible for unrestricted free agency. The Ravens’ O-line was a bit of a mess in 2016, but Wagner and stalwart Marshal Yanda generally held up their end of the bargain. If Wagner were to seek his fortune elsewhere, that would make the team’s need for a playmaking wide receiver or two even greater, but it could also force Baltimore to select a top tackle prospect in the first round for the second consecutive year. If so, Alabama’s Cam Robinson would be an obvious choice.

2) Beef Up The Pass Rush: The Ravens’ pass rush, once the most fearsome part of the roster, suffered another down year in 2016, as the team finished 24^th in the league with 31 sacks, and 11 of those came from interior defensive linemen or the blitzing secondary. Terrell Suggs played through injury for much of the year, and while he was able to manage eight sacks, he is clearly nearing the end of the line and is not as productive either as a run-stuffer or pass rusher as he used to be (though he is still more than adequate in both regards).

Meanwhile, Elvis Dumervil’s 2016 was almost completely wiped out by injury, and it is widely-expected that he will be a cap casualty this offseason. That leaves young players like Matt Judon and Kamalei Correa to take up the mantle, and while Judon, a fifth-round choice last year, played well in spurts, Correa, the Ravens’ second-round choice in 2016, was even more raw than the team anticipated and barely played outside of special teams. Both have the athleticism and upside to become, at the very least, effective situational pass rushers, but the Ravens cannot necessarily rely on a ton of production from either of them in 2017. Further complicating matters is the fact that Za’Darius Smith, a fourth-round choice in the 2015 draft, has not developed as hoped.

Therefore, just as with the wide receiver position, the Ravens will likely need to turn to free agency and/or the draft to address their flagging pass rush. Ravens fans might dream about a player like Chandler Jones or Melvin Ingram, but even if they are not re-signed by their current clubs, it is unlikely Baltimore will be able to afford them. But while the Packers’ Nick Perry or Datone Jones are not quite as exciting, they might still offer a quality complement to Suggs and the team’s youthful core, and even aging vets like DeMarcus Ware or Dwight Freeney could be useful pieces at a fairly low cost. If the Eagles release or trade Connor Barwin, Baltimore would be a perfect fit for his services.

Luckily for the Ravens, the 2017 draft holds some quality pass rushing talent. Missouri’s Charles Harris, Alabama’s Tim Williams, Kansas State’s Jordan Willis, and UCLA’s Takkarist McKinley would all be intriguing fits in Baltimore’s defensive front.

Defensive coordinator Dean Pees rightly faced a great deal of criticism during his first few years in Baltimore, but, to his credit, he did make some important adjustments to his play-calling in 2016, and the defense improved as a result. Nonetheless, Pees’ unit did suffer several late-game collapses that ultimately cost the team a chance at the AFC North title, and despite his improvements, he was still frequently out-coached by opposing offensive coordinators. But he is returning in 2017, so it will be especially critical for the Ravens to continue to load the defense with as much as talent as possible, and to continue injecting the unit with youth and athleticism, a trend they began in earnest last year with the selections of Correa, Judon, and fourth-round revelation Tavon Young.

The team may also need to address the interior of the defensive line, as DT Brandon Williams is primed for a major payday and Baltimore may be forced to let him walk. Baltimore, as is their custom, does have several intriguing young options that could replace Williams, but they will likely need to add at least one veteran to stabilize the rotation.

3) Address The Secondary: Yet again, the Ravens will need to address their secondary if they want to return to contention in 2017. Top corner Jimmy Smith played well in 2016, but his season was knocked off course by injury for the second time in three years. In 2014, he was playing well before he suffered a foot injury that took him out of action halfway through the season, and in 2015 he was clearly not the same player. He largely returned to form in 2016 but played in only 11 games, and the defense suffered when he was not available.

Still, given their financial commitment to him, Baltimore will need to rely on Smith playing a full and healthy season in 2017, and will need to build around him. Eric Weddle excelled at the safety spot in his first year in Baltimore, but the Ravens lacked a true No. 2 corner opposite Smith. Shareece Wright, after signing a three-year deal last offseason, was unreliable, and although Young was terrific in his rookie season, he is better-suited as a slot corner. Beyond those three players, at least two of whom have major question marks, the Ravens have virtually no experience at cornerback.

Baltimore made a surprising splash acquisition when they inked Weddle last year, but it is unlikely they will make a similar signing in 2017, which means that they will not be in the market for players like A.J. Bouye, Trumaine Johnson, or Stephon Gilmore. However, they could theoretically take a flyer on a veteran like Sam Shields or Tramon Williams, and depending on how Prince Amukamara’s market plays out, he might not be out of the team’s price range. Nolan Carroll or old friend Will Davis are also options, and the team would probably do well to sign multiple players to provide some much-needed depth.

Although Lardarius Webb played reasonably well in his first season at safety, his injury history, age, and cap number make him a realistic candidate to be released. The Ravens could save $5.5MM by cutting him, but if they did so, they would need to sign or draft an adequate replacement. The team has been connected to Tony Jefferson, and he would make a solid complement to Weddle on the back end of the team’s defense.

The Ravens have also been connected to defensive backs in various mock drafts, and there are a number of prospects at both cornerback and safety that could be fits for Baltimore. Although elite prospects like Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker, and Marshon Lattimore may not be available to the Ravens, the coverage skills offered by cornerbacks like LSU’s Tre’Davious White and Florida’s Teez Tabor would be welcome in Baltimore. If Adams or Hooker do not fall to the Ravens in the first round, Baltimore will likely need to wait until Day 2 or 3 to pick up a safety prospect. If they do, Washington’s Budda Baker or NC State’s Josh Jones could be fits. Day 2 cornerback prospects include the likes of Iowa’s Desmond King and Michigan’s Jourdan Lewis.

Another Michigan prospect, Jabrill Peppers, is one of the most difficult players to project, though the dynamic defensive play-maker has been mocked to the Ravens on several occasions. The problem is that Peppers, a Heisman Trophy finalist, is viewed as more of a hybrid safety/linebacker in the mold of Arizona’s Deone Bucannon, and while Pees did attempt to utilize such a role in 2016 with players like Anthony Levine and Patrick Onwuasor, it is unclear whether he has enough creativity to get the most out of Peppers’ skill-set. Plus, Peppers probably does not have enough size to adequately replace the recently-retired Zachary Orr, so the Ravens would still need to invest more assets into the position even if they selected Peppers.

Top 3 Offseason Needs: New Orleans Saints

February 21st, 2017 at 9:56pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In advance of March 9, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the New Orleans Saints, who finished third in the NFC South after posting their third consecutive 7-9 record.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Chris Banjo, S (RFA)
Sam Barrington, LB
Travaris Cadet, RB
Justin Drescher, LS
Kasim Edebali, DE (RFA)
Jahri Evans, G
Nick Fairley, DT
Roman Harper, S
Tim Hightower, RB
Tony Hills, LT
Shiloh Keo, S
Paul Kruger, DE
Tim Lelito, G
Michael Mauti, LB
Sterling Moore, CB
John Phillips, TE
Jamarca Sanford, S
Willie Snead, WR (ERFA)
Darryl Tapp, DE
Jason Trusnik, LB
B.W. Webb, CB
Kyle Wilson, CB

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2017:

Drew Brees, QB: $19,000,000
Cameron Jordan, DE: $12,047,000
Terron Armstead, LT: $11,500,000
Jairus Byrd, S: $11,200,000
Coby Fleener, TE: $7,500,000
Max Unger, C: $7,400,000
Kenny Vaccaro, S: $5,676,000
Mark Ingram, RB: $5,345,000
Zach Strief, T: $5,100,000
Thomas Morstead, P: $4,700,000

Other:

Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $29,557,284
11th pick in draft
Must exercise or decline 2018 fifth-year option for WR Brandin Cooks

Three Needs:

1. Find an edge rusher to play opposite Cameron Jordan: The Saints ranked 29th in DVOA against the pass in 2016, and much of that poor showing can be attributed to the club’s lack of pass rush. Defensive end Cameron Jordan led the team with 7.5 sacks, defensive tackle — and pending free agent — Nick Fairley was second with 6.5, and no other New Orleans defender posted more than four quarterback takedowns. Overall, the Saints finished 27th in team sacks and 28th in adjusted sack percentage.

Edge rushers Darryl Tapp and Paul Kruger are both headed for the free agent market, and while one or both could be retained, neither should be viewed as a priority one item. Instead, the Saints are likely going to look towards free agency and the draft in order to bring in new talent, especially given that New Orleans head coach Sean Payton said adding pass rush help is a “must.” Typically up against the salary cap, the Saints have nearly $30MM with which to work this offseason, and could clear more room by cutting ties with veterans such as Jairus Byrd and Thomas Morstead.

Given that the Cardinals’ Chandler Jones and the Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul seem increasingly likely to be franchised by their respective clubs, the top edge defender on the market could be Melvin Ingram, who’s managed 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons with the Chargers. Ingram, 27, is also a candidate for the tag, but it’s unclear if a rebuilding Los Angeles team is willing to tie up ~$15MM in cap space on a single player. If he does reach the open market, Ingram should be the number one target for the Saints, who should have some familiarity with him given that former Chargers linebackers coach Mike Nolan now holds the same role in New Orleans.

Outside of the top few options, the free agent defensive end class is relatively barren, and the Saints could be forced to go bargain hunting. Datone Jones is still only 26 years old and has never seemed to fit in the Packers’ 3-4 look, but he could look to restart his career as an end in New Orleans’ 4-3 scheme. Ryan Davis posted 10 sacks for the Jaguars in 2014-15, and though his performance stalled last year, a move back to end could help. Veterans such as Julius Peppers and Dwight Freeney could be targets on one-year deals, while Elvis Dumervil could also intrigue the Saints if he’s released by Baltimore.

If the Saints don’t find what they’re looking for in free agency, the trade market might offer at least one interesting solution in the form of Jets defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson. Although New Orleans wasn’t among the list of teams that reportedly inquired on Richardson last year, the 26-year-old could be a nice fit as a defensive end under coordinator Dennis Allen. A player-for-player trade might even make sense — former first-round pick Stephone Anthony has apparently fallen out of favor with the Saints, and it’s possible New York would have interest in resurrecting his young career.

When April rolls around, New Orleans will have yet another opportunity to add edge players when the draft begins. The Saints hold the 11th overall selection, and figure to target a pass rusher with that pick. ESPN draftniks Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay both see New Orleans drafting a defensive end, as Kiper recently mocked Michigan’s Taco Charlton to the Saints while McShay thinks Stanford’s Solomon Thomas will head east. Myles Garrett (Texas A&M) and Jonathan Allen (Alabama) won’t be available when the Saints’ turn comes up, but Derek Barnett (Tennessee), Charles Harris (Oklahoma), and Carl Lawson (Auburn) could be in consideration.

2. Defend the middle of the field: Although the Saints struggled against outside receivers in 2016, health should help ameliorate that problem in 2017. Delvin Breaux, Damian Swann, P.J. Williams, and Kyle Wilson combined to play 240 snaps last year thanks to a myriad of injuries, so if that group can return to full strength next season, regression to the mean should help New Orleans’ progress against pass-catchers.

The more pressing area of need for the Saints, then, is finding defenders who can guard the middle of the field. Last year, New Orleans ranked 27th in DVOA against “other” wide receivers (typically slot men), 22nd against tight ends, and dead last against running backs catching passes out of the backfield. The Saints failed to defend routes that took opposing players over the middle or down the seam, meaning the club needs to target linebackers and safeties this offseason.

New Orleans, like a number of NFL teams, has become increasingly fond of deploying a three-safety look, substituting an extra back end defender in lieu of a linebacker. Jairus Byrd, Kenny Vaccaro, and Vonn Bell all played more than 700 snaps last season, while veteran Roman Harper added another 300 of his own. Harper is unlikely to be re-signed, while Byrd is also likely on the outs. Signed to a massive $54MM contract in 2014, Byrd has never lived up to that deal during his time with the Saints, and the club can clear $7.8MM in cap space by designating him a post-June 1 cut.

With Byrd potentially gone, the Saints would need to add another defensive back, and an ideal situation might be landing either Ohio State’s Malik Hooker or LSU’s Jamal Adams in the first round of the draft. Either scenario is probably closer to pipe dream than reality, however, as both safeties rank among Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com‘s top-four overall players. Budda Baker (Washington) or Marcus Williams (Utah) are more practical targets that could be available on Day 2, while Michigan’s Jabrill Peppers — who is expected to play something of a hybrid safety/linebacker role in the pros — could be exactly what the Saints are looking for.

In free agency, New Orleans should have a number of other options, although the club probably won’t be in the running for Tony Jefferson, who is expected to be the second-highest paid safety this offseason behind Eric Berry. The Saints aren’t in cap hell anymore, but spending extravagantly to bring in a third safety isn’t fiscally responsible. Instead, New Orleans should target more affordable players who can still contribute, such as Jahleel Addae (Chargers), Duron Harmon (Patriots), Rashad Johnson (Titans), or Quintin Demps (Texans).

The Saints should be expected to show interest in Marcus Gilchrist if he’s released by the Jets, while another, more high-profile New York defensive back could also be on New Orleans’ radar. Darrelle Revis is currently in legal hot water after an altercation that left two men unconscious, but if the charges are ultimately lessened or dropped, Revis may not be subject to a league-imposed suspension. Nevertheless, he’s still likely to be released by Gang Green, and if he’s willing to move to safety, Revis could make for an interesting addition to the Saints’ secondary.

In addition to safeties, New Orleans should also make a run at a free agent linebacker, and perhaps expend a mid-round pick on the position, as well. In Nathan Stupar and Craig Robertson, the Saints already employ two ‘backers who can defend the run, so the club needs to go after mid-level defenders who are capable of stopping opposing running backs and tight ends. The Bills’ Zach Brown, the Cardinals’ Kevin Minter, and the Raiders’ Perry Riley are earned top-30 coverage grades according to Pro Football Focus, and while Brown and Minter could each command more than $6MM annually, Riley should be a more economical signing.

3. Reinforce the interior offensive line: There’s no question the Saints offensive line was among the league’s best in 2016: the unit ranked first in adjusted line yards, fifth in adjusted sack rate, and finished 12th in Pro Football Focus’ year end rankings. However, the recent success enjoyed by New Orleans’ front five doesn’t mean the line won’t face questions in the very near future, and the Saints should tackle those potential concerns now rather than later.

2015 first-round pick Andrus Peat seems to be the fulcrum for the Saints’ offensive line, and his ability to play multiple positions will factor into New Orleans’ plans. Last year, Peat split time between left guard and left tackle, spending much of the year filling in for an injured Terron Armstead on Drew Brees‘ blindside. Peat’s long-term future isn’t on the left side, though, as he’s considered the successor to current right tackle Zach Strief, as Larry Holder of the Times-Picayune detailed today. Strief, 33, is likely to continue his career through at least the 2017 campaign, but Peat will probably take over right tackle after that.

Center should be locked down for the next several seasons by Max Unger, who is signed through 2019 after agreeing to an extension last summer. Right guard, though, is in flux. New Orleans brought back longtime Saint Jahri Evans for another go-round last year, and while he graded as the league’s No. 36 guard according to PFF, the 33-year-old Evans isn’t the long-term answer on the interior. While Evans could provide another seasons of production in 2017, the Saints need to start looking at guard options, especially given that interior line play is critical for the 6’0″ Brees.

No collegiate guard/center prospect is worth a top-15 pick this year, so the Saints will be forced to address the position on Day 2 or 3. In the second round, New Orleans could go after Forrest Lamp (Western Kentucky), Dan Feeney (Indiana), or Isaac Asiata (Utah), whom Rob Rang of CBSSports.com favorably compares to Raiders guard Gabe Jackson. Alabama’s Cam Robinson, meanwhile, is generally viewed as a tackle prospect, but Mike Mayock of NFL.com recently listed him at the guard position. If Robinson tumbles to the second round, the Saints could pounce.

If New Orleans re-signs Evans, the club probably doesn’t need to venture into the free agency for additional help. But if Evans isn’t in the Saints’ 2017 plans, the team will need to scour the market for a new right guard. The Saints do have internal options in Tim Lelito (a pending free agent) and Senio Kelemete, but both are probably best served in reserve roles. Instead, New Orleans could target someone like the recently-released Brandon Fusco, the Packers’ J.C. Tretter, or failed former first-round picks Jonathan Cooper or Chance Warmack. Orlando Franklin and/or D.J. Fluker — both of whom could be soon be cut by the Chargers — could also make sense.

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