When Rob Gronkowski retired for a second time, many suspected the June transaction would also lead to another temporary step away from football. The future Hall of Fame tight end made an effort to postpone his Canton timeline again recently.
Gronkowski, 33, contacted the Buccaneers about unretiring last month, and Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports the team and the two-year Buccaneer engaged in several conversations about a potential return. The Bucs both gave Gronk an option of returning on the active roster or the practice squad, the latter in the increasingly popular ramp-up scenario, per Stroud.
While the 11-year veteran said he had been working out on his own and cited boredom with not playing football — a prediction that was not too difficult to make given his past — he will remain retired at this point. Gronk had said in July he was done, and a September report also indicated he was staying retired. Now? The door appears slightly ajar to another return.
“It was more of a conversation than anything else,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said, via Stroud. “Usually, when you have to think about playing, you probably don’t want to play. When it’s just a discussion, I didn’t think much of it at the time.”
The Bucs’ offense could certainly use all the help available. It has dropped from second in scoring in 2021 to 28th this year, falling from 30.1 points per game to 17.6. Tom Brady‘s QBR has plummeted outside the top 20, this coming after he led the league in touchdown passes and passing yards last season — en route to second-team All-Pro honors. Brady’s QBR figure is his worst in the 17-season QBR era, and his timing with wideouts — particularly Mike Evans — has been off.
Tampa Bay has not effectively replaced Gronkowski, who totaled 802 receiving yards — his most since 2017 — last season. Gronk’s first unretirement, which keyed a 2020 trade with the Patriots, played a significant role in the Bucs claiming their second Super Bowl title two years ago. Injury issues led to his 2019 exit, and the four-time All-Pro pass catcher did miss five games due to injuries — fractured ribs and a punctured lung — last season. The All-Decade performer remained one of the league’s best tight ends, however, and has proven impossible to replace.
Although longtime Bucs tight end Cameron Brate remains on the roster, a scary concussion scene paused his season. Brate has been limited to nine games. Rookie Cade Otton leads Bucs tight ends with 357 receiving yards. Brady’s QBR dipped during Gronk’s first retirement as well, and while Evans and Chris Godwin helped reinvigorate the all-time great, Brady’s longtime go-to weapon played a lead role in doing so as well.
News of Gronk’s unretirement attempt does come not long after he said Brady’s best place next season may be with him at FOX. Should Brady retire, he has a 10-year FOX agreement waiting for him. This latest Gronk-NFL connection, however, keeps the door on his own career. Gronk has said at points he only wishes to team up with Brady, though he was connected to the Bengals and Bills this offseason. With the 23rd-year veteran open to playing in 2023 and unlikely to re-sign with the Bucs if he does decide to stay in the NFL, Gronk — even ahead of what would be his age-34 season — could be an interesting variable in 2023’s free agent market.
One of this season’s most disappointing teams, the Buccaneers still have a chance to host a playoff game. But their Tom Brady partnership may be nearing an end. The all-time great is viewed as more likely than not to be elsewhere in 2023.
This would open the door to either an unusual free agency or a second retirement. Winding down his age-45 season, Brady will likely not be sought after on the level he was in 2020. His career-low QBR (since the stat’s 2006 introduction, at least), lowest yards per attempt figure since 2002 (6.3) and age will undoubtedly give teams pause. But if the 15-time Pro Bowler wants to keep pushing the quarterback age boundary — a recently discussed scenario — there stands to be a market.
It still makes sense to include the 49ers here. They passed on a true pursuit in 2020, when Jimmy Garoppolo was coming off a season in which he piloted the team to Super Bowl LIV, but Brady was loosely linked to seeking a move to his native Bay Area during his mini-retirement this offseason. The Bucs shut down the prospect of trading Brady’s rights anywhere. San Francisco has an again-injured Garoppolo tied to a restructured deal that prevents a franchise tag — a similar arrangement to Brady, who also cannot be tagged thanks to his 2022 restructure — and Trey Lance will enter 2023 having only played one full season in his five post-high school years. The 49ers boast a rare skill-position trio that includes three All-Pros, and their situation could open the door to Lance spending a year learning behind arguably the greatest to ever do it.
Josh McDaniels looks like he will make it to a second Raiders season, even though his first has not gone as hoped. McDaniels taking over as Patriots OC led to Brady morphing from a promising young quarterback to a superstar, and he was Brady’s OC for 11 years. The Raiders have a narrow window to tradeDerek Carr, who will see $40.5MM guaranteed on Day 3 of the 2023 league year. A Carr-Davante Adams breakup might not go over well among the longtime friends, but McDaniels and fellow ex-Patriots staffer Dave Ziegler are calling the shots. The Raiders pursued Brady in 2020, and he famously had a spirited reaction to the then-Jon Gruden-led team backing off.
Tua Tagovailoa has a rather vocal cast of supporters, and the Dolphins did just pay a stiff penalty for attempting to bring Brady and Sean Payton to town. Payton seems out of the question now, with Mike McDaniel faring well in his first year, and Tagovailoa still sits second in QBR. The Dolphins have one of the great speed-receiver duos in NFL history, and vice chairman Bruce Beal is on the TB12 board. Though, Beal’s central role in the tampering scandal is believed to have affected his standing with the team. Would Stephen Ross try to land one of the assets that ultimately cost a first-round pick?
While it would look quite strange to see Brady with the Jets, they have both young weaponry and a vastly improved defense. That combination wooed Brady to Tampa. Timeline-wise, the Jets mirror the 49ers at the QB position. They roster the passer taken one spot ahead of Lance (Zach Wilson), though the Jets have more intel on their top-three QB pick than the Niners do theirs. Mike White is a free agent at season’s end, and the team is already being connected to veteran options — Garoppolo and Carr among them. Brady probably should be at least mentioned here.
Brady and Mike Vrabel played together for nine seasons, and the Titans were part of the free agency derby two years ago. They bowed out before it ultimately came down to a Bucs-or-Chargers call, and Ryan Tannehill has one season remaining on the extension the Titans gave him shortly after their Brady pursuit ended. The Titans cannot match the above-referenced teams for weaponry, however.
Bill Belichick did not exactly equip Mac Jones for a second-year leap, naming a career defensive coach (Matt Patricia) as de facto OC. Jones has regressed in Year 2, and there was a brief QB controversy with fourth-round rookie Bailey Zappe. Uncertainty about the 2021 first-rounder’s long-term standing has entered the equation. If LeBron James could return to Cleveland, Brady rejoining Belichick and Robert Kraft for a farewell season should at least be floated. Brady and Kraft remain close, as evidenced by the Bucs QB traveling to the Patriots owner’s wedding during a Bucs road trip earlier this season. But the Patriots would need to get to work on receiving help. They almost certainly would not be the favorites if Brady decided to play a 24th season.
Reports of friction between Brady and Bruce Arians and Brady and OC Byron Leftwich have emerged over the past two seasons. Arians’ exit has undoubtedly affected this Bucs iteration, which has dealt with issues along its offensive line throughout the year as well. But the Bucs have fallen from the second-ranked scoring offense in 2021 — a season in which Brady led the league with 5,316 passing yards and 43 TDs — to 28th. The Bucs’ chances at winning a terrible NFC South aside, they may soon face the prospect of the Brady bill coming due. The Bucs not re-signing Brady before his contract expires in March would mean a $35.1MM dead-money hit due to the void years on his deal.
Brady is the only 45-year-old starting QB in NFL history, and retirement was believed to be the direction he would go at this season’s outset. As he plays out a down season, there will be more calls for a true retirement this time. A 10-year deal to be FOX’s lead analyst awaits.
As this offseason showed, teams are more willing to follow through with big QB swings. Complex QB offseasons have been the 2020s norm. More teams could potentially enter the mix, if they are convinced Brady’s struggles this year can be attributed more to his circumstances and less on a decline. Unless Brady calls it quits immediately after this season, the topic of his 2023 employer will gain steam. How will it end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this oft-discussed player in the comments section.
December 21st, 2022 at 10:18am CST by Sam Robinson
Christmas Day’s Broncos-Rams matchup will pit two of the league’s most disappointing teams against one another, and the Seahawks and Lions will have a vested interest in this contest. The loser of this game will give one of the latter teams — via the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trades — a better chance of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft.
At 1-12-1, the Texans are cruising home. The Bears are on their heels, potentially set to become the team that selects the 2023 draft’s first non-quarterback. But eight four- or five-win teams reside behind these two, providing some intrigue for fanbases whose squads are not moving toward the playoffs.
The NFC South’s plunge toward becoming perhaps the worst division in NFL history carries draft stakes as well. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers each have five wins, and Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia (via the Saints’ pre-draft trade this year) would see those picks land in the top 10 as of now. The division-leading Buccaneers would see their draft slot check in no higher than 19th. Should one of Tampa Bay’s challengers vault the current first-place team in the standings, the Bucs would see their 2023 first-round slot rise considerably.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 16:
Houston Texans: 1-12-1
Chicago Bears: 3-11
Detroit Lions (via Rams)
Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
Arizona Cardinals: 4-10
Indianapolis Colts: 4-9-1
Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
Carolina Panthers: 5-9
Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
Houston Texans (via Browns)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8
Green Bay Packers: 6-8
Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
New England Patriots: 7-7
New York Jets: 7-7
Detroit Lions: 7-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8
Tennessee Titans: 7-7
Washington Commanders: 7-6-1
Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
New York Giants: 8-5-1
Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-3
Minnesota Vikings: 11-3
Buffalo Bills: 11-3
Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Paytontampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice.
The Buccaneers’ O-line, which has seen a great deal of upheaval since February, almost got another shakeup. Per ESPN’s Jenna Laine, Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles recently considered benching left tackle Donovan Smith, though for the time being, Smith will retain his starting job (Twitter link).
Smith, who missed two games earlier this season with a hyperextended elbow, has been charged with six penalties in the last three games, and his 11 total penalties this season is the most in the league. That, along with generally underwhelming performance — Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics rank Smith 65th out of 77 qualifying tackles — is what prompted Bowles to consider the demotion.
Quarterback Tom Brady‘s quick trigger in 2022 and his poor 6.2 yards-per-attempt rate may be a function of his lack of confidence in his line, which is also having a hard time opening holes for the team’s running backs (Tampa Bay’s RBs are averaging 3.3 yards per carry, the worst rate in the league). PFF actually gives Smith a solid 68.8 score in pass protection but an awful 39.4 grade as a run blocker, the worst mark among his OT peers.
Unfortunately for Bowles, he doesn’t have any options that would be obvious upgrades. Brandon Walton and Josh Wells filled in for Smith during the latter’s early-season absence, but Walton is a 2020 UDFA who finally earned his first regular season snaps this year, and Wells is a swingman who is needed at RT while Wirfs is unable to play.
Smith, 29, has been Tampa Bay’s starting left tackle since entering the league as a second-round draft choice in 2015, and while he has never earned a Pro Bowl nod, his durability and average-to-above-average play at a premium position have allowed him to land multiple contracts with the Bucs. His current deal runs through next year, and his 2023 salary of $15.3MM is a fair one for a left tackle with his level of experience and who is young enough to return to the form he displayed over the past several seasons.
On the other hand, the Bucs will be saddled with a ~$35MM dead cap charge next season if Brady departs, which is the expected outcome. A Smith release would create a cap savings of ~$10MM, and that reality, combined with his performance this year, suggest that his roster spot is not secure.
December 15th, 2022 at 10:45pm CST by Sam Robinson
Most of the one-and-done coaching noise has emerged from the AFC, with Nathaniel Hackett and Lovie Smith potentially up against it to keep their jobs. Prior to last season (Urban Meyer, David Culley), no NFL campaign had seen two one-and-done head coaches since 2007. While Hackett and Smith could make it back-to-back years with multiple NFL one-and-dones, the NFC’s set of first-year HCs appears safe.
Both the Buccaneers and Saints have not lived up to expectations, particularly in Tampa Bay’s case. But neither Todd Bowles nor Dennis Allen are believed to be on unsteady ground regarding a return in 2023, Dan Graziano of ESPN.com notes.
The circumstances behind Bowles’ promotion were strange at the time, with Bruce Arians well into his offseason routine. Days after Tom Brady agreed to unretire, Arians stepped away. Many connected the dots here and pointed to Brady effectively forcing Arians out, but the Super Bowl-winning HC indicated otherwise. Arians said Brady’s return allowed him to hand the reins to Bowles rather than give his longtime assistant a less stable team. The Bucs have been anything but stable this year, however.
Tampa Bay is 6-7 but needed final-minute drives to win its past two home games. The Bucs have slipped from second in scoring offense to 28th in their initial post-Arians season, and Brady’s QBR figure (51.0) would be the lowest of his career (QBR made its debut in Brady’s seventh season, however). Rumors of friction between Brady and OC Byron Leftwich have surfaced, and the likelihood of the all-time great coming back for a fourth Bucs season appears low right now.
Bowles, 59, failed in his first head-coaching opportunity, going 24-40 with the Jets. He rebuilt his stock during his three-year stay as the Bucs’ DC, and this year’s Bucs defense remains in the top 10 in both points and yards allowed. But his team has failed to gain solid playoff footing despite playing in one of the worst divisions in NFL history. Bowles’ second year — one that could feature major quarterback uncertainty — figures to bring more scrutiny.
The Saints did not make the playoffs last season, going 9-8, but they have also taken a step back under their retread coach. Like Bowles, Allen bombed in his first HC go-round. He went just 8-28 with the Raiders, who fired him during a winless start in 2014. Allen, 50, latched on with the Saints and helped their defense turn around in the late 2010s, leading to four consecutive Saints playoff appearances. Injuries have again limited the Saints this season, and while New Orleans’ statistical decline is not as stark as Tampa Bay’s, the team’s 4-9 record is its worst mark through 13 games since 2005 — its final pre-Sean Payton season.
Staff changes could be in play for both teams, Graziano adds, noting that Brady — should he agree to come back — would stand to have input on how Bowles constructs his staff. Brady being a free agent complicates that process. As for the Saints, they kept longtime OC Pete Carmichael on — after he was initially linked to a lower-profile role in the wake of Payton’s exit — while this is Leftwich’s fourth season calling plays for the Bucs. It will be interesting to gauge the fallout from these two disappointing seasons, even if Allen and Bowles are ticketed to return.
December 13th, 2022 at 11:02pm CST by Sam Robinson
Although Tom Brady has taken steps back this season, the prospect of the unretired superstar again postponing retirement and playing in 2023 is on the table. It is not expected a Brady age-46 season would transpire in Tampa.
Signing a quarterback ahead of his age-43 season in 2020, the Bucs were not exactly preparing to play the long game here. The Brady signing helped produce the franchise’s second Super Bowl championship, and he led the league in passing yards last season. While this year has brought a stream of Brady headlines and reduced production, the Bucs going QB shopping — as they did briefly this year — in 2023 would still bring a major change for the franchise.
Brady, 45, both retired and unretired between the Bucs’ divisional-round loss and free agency. He was then the centerpiece of another team losing a first-round pick, with the Dolphins’ pursuit of a Brady-Sean Payton package leading to the loss of two draft choices. Brady agreed to a massive FOX deal to be their lead analyst when he retires, made a strange mid-training camp exit and was recently part of the most public divorce in NFL history. All the while, Bruce Arians stepped down shortly after Brady agreed to return to the team.
This avalanche of headlines preceded what has been a disappointing Bucs season. Tampa Bay (6-7) still leads the NFC South, but this is one of the worst divisions in NFL history. Brady’s QBR (51.0) ranks 23rd — a steep decline from his second-place finish (73.1) in 2021 — and La Canfora adds friction between he and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich exists. Philosophical differences between Brady and Leftwich have dated back to last season, JLC notes. Leftwich has been the Bucs’ play-caller throughout Brady’s tenure, though Arians obviously held considerable influence during his time on the sidelines.
This is certainly interesting, considering the reported Brady-Arians rift was connected to the latter’s decision to step away (though, Arians has denied this consistently). But the post-Arians Bucs have struggled consistently on offense; they have dropped from second to 28th in scoring from 2021 to this season. Were it not for Brady-led comebacks that downed the Rams and Saints, the team would be 4-9.
Brady long hoped to play until 45, but he has recently kept the door open to venturing further into uncharted (non-kicker division) waters. If the Bucs are drifting out of the picture for a Brady age-46 season, some teams previously connected to the legendary passer may be back in the mix soon. The 49ers, who have just seen Jimmy Garoppolo go down with another major injury, are again being tied to the Bay Area native, and La Canfora mentions the Raiders and Dolphins as other teams who could consider Brady. Brady was connected to the 49ers in 2020 and, briefly, this year, while it has been reported Brady’s reference to “that mother——“ (regarding his 2020 free agency) meant Derek Carr. Brady-to-Miami happening after this year’s penalties would cause quite the firestorm. When asked Sunday if the Bucs-49ers game would be his last time playing in the Bay Area, Brady responded (via the San Francisco Chronicle’s Michael Silver) “I don’t know; I don’t know.”
Rob Gronkowski said Brady calling it quits and joining him at FOX “may be the best option.” Brady agreed to a 10-year, $375MM deal with the network this offseason. Considering how driven the seven-time Super Bowl champion has been in extending his career, it would surprise if he does not consider his options in free agency. But he does have a lucrative fallback option.
“That may be the best option,” Gronkowski told USA Today’s Mackenzie Salmon (via Bucs Wire). “He’s definitely, you know, he’s a free agent. He can weigh out every option, whatever team he wants to play for, or if he wants to go in that booth and come join me, and we can be, you know, the tag team champions in the world.”
