Jordan Love, Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa represent the next set of dominoes expected to fall within the quarterback market this summer, with the Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence deals providing early road maps for the Packers, Cowboys and Dolphins. As of now, Miami does not appear to be comfortable with where the market has gone.
Tagovailoa alluded to progress being made earlier this month while also reminding where the QB market has gone, perhaps sending a message to the Dolphins regarding his value following the extensions for Goff ($53MM per year) and Lawrence (record-tying $55MM AAV). It looks like any progress between the Dolphins and their QB has stalled, with ESPN.com’s Jeff Darlington indicating during an NFL Live appearance (h/t Omar Kelly of the Miami Herald) the team has not offered a deal in step with those the Lions and Jaguars proposed to their top passers.
The Dolphins having yet to offer a market-value extension, per Darlington, certainly introduces a speedbump in these talks. But Tagovailoa turned down at least one offer from the team earlier this offseason. The sides are still working toward a middle ground, but given the form (when healthy) the former No. 5 overall pick has shown, it is difficult to see him accepting an extension south of where the Jags went for Lawrence. The latter’s prospect pedigree and growth potential aside, Tua has fared better — albeit with superior weaponry — over the past two seasons.
Miami not being on the Goff or Lawrence level with Tagovailoa does not surprise Kelly, who indicates the team is “dug in” regarding the southpaw arm’s value. This certainly creates the potential for a standoff, as the Dolphins — due to Tua’s uneven first three seasons — already dragged this process into a contract year, a place teams rarely go with first-round passers on rookie deals. The parties have been negotiating since mid-April.
The Dolphins joining the Ravens in not extending their starter after Year 3 — when these deals usually move past the goal line for first-rounders — preceded a fairly promising season from the Alabama alum. Tagovailoa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards and threw 29 TD passes, though 14 INTs came along with those. Tagovailoa ranked third in QBR during his concussion-marred 2022 slate and 10th last season, when he played 17 games and took the snaps in Miami’s one-sided wild-card loss.
Taking a hardline stance with Tua runs the risk of the Dolphins having their quarterback move toward a 2025 franchise tag. Considering this year’s QB tag price ($38.3MM), that almost doubles as a weapon for Tagovailoa given the cap hold a 2025 tag would create for a Dolphins team that dealt with cap issues this offseason. The Dolphins, who extended Jaylen Waddle recently and appear open to revising Tyreek Hill‘s contract, are projected to be — albeit several months away from the cap-compliance deadline — $9MM-plus over the 2025 cap without any Tua money factoring into that number.
The arrivals of Hill and Mike McDaniel have undoubtedly played major roles in Tagovailoa’s emergence, but the latter proving himself a productive quarterback through his age-25 season obviously creates considerable leverage. The playoff starter missed several Dolphins offseason workouts due to his contract situation, though he showed up midway through Miami’s program. It will be interesting to see how far apart the sides are, as more than two months still remain until Week 1.