Trevor Lawrence

AFC South Rumors: Lawrence, Pierce, Skowronek

June 1st, 2024 at 5:19pm CST by Ely Allen

Many are under the impression that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence could be the next NFL passer to sign a big extension. Jacksonville is on board with that opinion as talks with Lawrence continue to progress. ESPN’s Michael DiRocco believes that, when a Lawrence extension does occur, it will look a lot like that of recently extended Lions quarterback Jared Goff in many regards.

This prediction comes from talks with NFL front office executives from outside of Jacksonville, who expect Lawrence’s average annual salary to just outpace Goff’s figure of $53MM per year. They also expect the deal to resemble the structure of Goff’s deal, which spans four years and included a $73MM signing bonus, spreading that amount over five years. Like most long-term contracts, the deal also guarantees two lower-paid salaries at the start of the deal while incentivizing future talks as salaries skyrocket in Year 3 of the contract.

Essentially, this executive is under the impression that, as of right now, Lawrence has done enough to help push the ever-growing value of quarterback contracts but has not done enough to eclipse Bengals passer Joe Burrow‘s league-high AAV of $55MM per year.

Here are a few other rumors from around the AFC South:

Texans running back Dameon Pierce put up an impressive rookie season as a fourth-round pick out of Florida in 2022 but saw an unprecedented drop off during a sophomore slump last season. After nearly breaking the 1,000-yard rushing mark in his first season, Pierce watched his starting job get stolen by veteran free agent Devin Singletary midway through his second season. Now, in Year 3, Pierce will have to compete with another veteran free agent addition in Joe Mixon, who is widely expected to start for Houston in 2024. Head coach DeMeco Ryans claims that, despite Pierce’s nearly cemented status as RB2, we can expect to see a fairly healthy dose of the third-year rusher as part of a one-two punch with Mixon next season, per Michael Shapiro of Chron.
Lastly, the Texans recently traded for Rams wide receiver Ben Skowronek, making yet another trade addition to their receiving corps this offseason. Already rostering, Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, Noah Brown, and John Metchie, adding another receiver hardly seemed like a priority. Well, according to Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2, Skowronek not only adds some much-needed size to the room, but he also emerged as an effective special teams contributor in Los Angeles. Skowronek’s special teams prowess should help him to potentially hold on to a roster spot come September.

Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence Extension Talks Progressing

May 20th, 2024 at 10:00am CST by Adam La Rose

2024 marks the first year in which Trevor Lawrence is eligible for an extension. Franchise quarterbacks often ink new deals after their first three years in the league, which puts the 2021 first overall pick on track to secure a monster second contract relatively soon.

Talks on a new deal have been taking place since at least April, and with the Josh Allen extension on the books the Lawrence situation represents Jacksonville’s top remaining financial priority. When he last spoke about the latter, general manager Trent Baalke preached patience based on the size and complexity of modern QB pacts. Things appear to be moving in a positive direction at this point, though.

During a recent SportsCenter appearance, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported negotiations between the Jaguars and Lawrence’s camp are “progressing fairly nicely” (h/t Tyler Conway of Bleacher Report). Plenty of time remains for a deal to be worked out, with the team having made the obvious decision to pick up Lawrence’s 2025 fifth-year option.

That has the 24-year-old in line to earn $22.66MM next season, although a multi-year pact will check in at a much higher rate. Fowler’s report notes a Lawrence extension will likely be valued at or above the $50MM-per-year mark. That comes as little surprise, considering the top of the QB market.

Four ascending passers (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts) each spent time at the top of the pecking order last offseason. Their respective extensions range between $51MM and $55MM per season. Last week, Jared Goff joined that group by inking a Lions deal worth $53MM per season. Especially given the latter’s age (29), Lawrence should be set up to become the next passer clearing the $50MM AAV mark.

His rookie season did not go according to plan under Urban Meyer, but the hiring of Doug Pederson brought about a rebound the following season. The Jaguars went to the divisional round of the postseason in 2022, with Lawrence earning a Pro Bowl nod. Dealing with a number of injuries (and being forced to miss a game for the first time in his career) last season, however, things took a turn for the worse in the Clemson product’s case. He and the team struggled on offense, and a 9-8 finish was insufficient to qualify for the postseason.

With 39 interceptions and 21 lost fumbles in his career, turnovers are a reasonable concern the team will take into consideration regarding a long-term investment in Lawrence. Still, he has surpassed 4,000 passing yards in each of the past two campaigns while throwing 46 touchdown passes in that span. Jacksonville lost Calvin Ridley in free agency, but the team added Gabe Davis before selecting Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the draft. Lawrence will likely be counted on to guide the Jags’ new-look offense not only in 2024 and ’25, but for several years beyond that.

Jaguars To Exercise Fifth-Year Options On Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne

April 27th, 2024 at 11:11pm CST by Adam La Rose

Much of the attention around the football world has been focused on the draft in recent days, but the deadline on fifth-year option decisions is approaching. The Jaguars had a pair of calls to make regarding quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne.

In both cases, the options will be picked up, general manager Trent Baalke said during his post-draft press conference. Lawrence will therefore collect $22.66MM in 2025, while Etienne will receive $6.14MM. With respect to the former in particular, though, this decision could easily serve as a placeholder for a long-term extension.

Talks on a new deal with Lawrence are ongoing, and the monster extension recently worked out with edge rusher Josh Allen has cleared a major item of the Jags’ offseason to-do list. Next up will likely be a second pact with Lawrence, as ascending passers have increasingly been extended within their first offseason of eligibility. Baalke is optimistic something can worked out, though he has preached patience with respect to terms being finalized.

Like the rest of the team, Lawrence struggled as a rookie under head coach Urban Meyer. The arrival of Doug Pederson as a replacement sparked a major uptick in production and a run to the divisional round of the playoffs. Injuries throughout the 2023 campaign limited the 24-year-old’s success and led to missed action for the first time in his NFL tenure. Even when at full strength, though, Jacksonville’s offense struggled and the team wound up outside the postseason picture.

Last offseason saw four young QBs – Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts – surpass $50MM in terms of the annual average value of their extensions. Many have pointed to Lawrence as the next in line to approach the top of the market, although the generally underwhelming nature of his time in Duval County to date could hurt his value. In any case, Lawrence will lock in an AAV much higher than the value of his option if a Jags extension can be agreed to in the near future.

Etienne was selected late in the 2021 first round to continue his time alongside Lawrence. The pair formed a dynamic duo at Clemson, and expectations were high for Etienne once he was able to take the field at the NFL level. After missing his rookie season due to injury, the 25-year-old had a strong showing in 2022 (1,125 yards, five touchdowns on the ground; 316 receiving yards). This past campaign saw a notable drop in efficiency, though – Etienne averaged 3.8 yards per carry, down from 5.1.

Jacksonville is aiming to share the load more in the backfield this season, with Etienne having logged 580 touches to date. The team’s draft efforts in that regard consisted of adding Keilan Robinson in the fifth round. Regardless of how the workload is divvied up, Etienne will no doubt be counted on as a key figure in the Jags’ offense for the foreseeable future knowing he will be in place over at least the next two years.

2025 NFL Fifth-Year Option Tracker

April 24th, 2024 at 10:57pm CST by Sam Robinson

NFL teams have until May 2 to officially pick up fifth-year options on 2021 first-rounders. The 2020 CBA revamped the option structure and made them fully guaranteed, rather than guaranteed for injury only. Meanwhile, fifth-year option salaries are now determined by a blend of the player’s position, initial draft placement and performance- and usage-based benchmarks:

Two-time Pro Bowlers (excluding alternates) will earn the same as their position’s franchise tag
One-time Pro Bowlers will earn the equivalent of the transition tag
Players who achieve any of the following will receive the average of the third-20th-highest salaries at their position:
- At least a 75% snap rate in two of their first three seasons
- A 75% snap average across all three seasons
- At least 50% in each of first three seasons
Players who do not hit any of those benchmarks will receive the average of the third-25th top salaries at their position

With the deadline looming, we will use the space below to track all the option decisions from around the league:

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($25.66MM): Exercised
QB Zach Wilson, Broncos* ($22.41MM): Declined
QB Trey Lance, Cowboys** ($22.41MM): Declined
TE Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($10.88MM): Exercised
WR Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($21.82MM): Exercised
WR Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($15.59MM): Exercised
T Penei Sewell, Lions ($19MM): Extended through 2029
CB Jaycee Horn, Panthers ($12.47MM): Exercised
CB Patrick Surtain, Broncos ($19.82MM): Exercised
WR DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($15.59MM): Extended through 2028
QB Justin Fields, Steelers*** ($25.66MM): Declined
DE Micah Parsons, Cowboys ($21.32MM): Exercised
T Rashawn Slater, Chargers ($19MM): Exercised
OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jets ($13.31MM): Exercised
QB Mac Jones, Jaguars**** ($25.66MM): Declined
LB Zaven Collins, Cardinals ($13.25MM): Declined
T Alex Leatherwood, Raiders: N/A
LB Jaelan Phillips, Dolphins ($13.3MM): Exercised
LB Jamin Davis, Commanders ($14.48MM): Declined
WR Kadarius Toney, Chiefs***** ($14.35MM): Declined
DE Kwity Paye, Colts ($13.4MM): Exercised
CB Caleb Farley, Titans ($12.47MM): Declined
T Christian Darrisaw, Vikings ($16MM): Exercised
RB Najee Harris, Steelers ($6.79MM): Declined
RB Travis Etienne, Jaguars ($6.14MM): Exercised
CB Greg Newsome, Browns ($13.38MM): To be exercised
WR Rashod Bateman, Ravens ($14.35MM): N/A; extended through 2026
DE Payton Turner, Saints ($13.39MM): Declined
CB Eric Stokes, Packers ($12.47MM): Declined
DE Greg Rousseau, Bills ($13.39MM): Exercised
LB Odafe Oweh, Ravens ($13.25MM): Exercised
LB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Buccaneers ($13.25MM): Declined

* = Jets traded Wilson on April 22, 2024
** = 49ers traded Lance on August 25, 2023
*** = Bears traded Fields on March 16, 2024
**** = Patriots traded Jones on March 10, 2024
***** = Giants traded Toney on October 27, 2022

Jaguars GM Trent Baalke Addresses Trevor Lawrence Extension Talks

April 20th, 2024 at 9:48pm CST by Adam La Rose

Earlier this week, it was learned extension talks are ongoing between the Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The parties have plenty of time to work out a deal with the fifth-year option in place a means to keep Lawrence in place through 2025.

That option will check in at a price of $25.66MM, a figure far below the going rate for franchise quarterbacks. The former first overall pick has not lived up to expectations to date, but he is squarely in Jacksonville’s long-term plans. Young passers are often extended after three years in the league – the first point of eligibility for a second contract – and it would come as no surprise if a Lawrence deal were to be worked out in 2024.

Talks on that front will be lengthy, however, something general manager Trent Baalke confirmed when speaking on the subject. A monster deal was recently hammered out with Pro Bowl edge rusher Josh Allen, removing one major task from the Jaguars’ to-do list. A Lawrence agreement will be much more expensive, though, and Baalke acknowledged patience will be required while adding he aims to find a resolution relatively soon.

“We’ve had some great talks and great conversations,” Baalke said (via NFL.com). “We’re working, but you can’t force this stuff. I said the same thing with Josh’s situation, I said it would take some time and it did. But we’re glad it got completed when it did so we could go into this offseason program knowing that’s behind us and we can move forward. We’re working at it, we’ll continue to work at it. Ownership is involved, obviously. Coach [Doug Pederson] is involved; we’re going to put our best foot forward and hope to get something accomplished here.”

Pederson’s arrival in 2022 led to expectations Lawrence would be able to rebound from a forgettable rookie campaign under Urban Meyer. That season, Jacksonville managed to reach the divisional round of the postseason amidst a strong showing on offense. A regression this past campaign – one in which Lawrence battle multiple injuries – left the team out of the postseason, however. The 24-year-old could thus be hard-pressed to command a deal similar in value to those signed by the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts last offseason.

Those four pacts brought the top of the QB market past $50MM per year, and healthy salary cap increases will no doubt keep moving the position’s financial landscape further. Lawrence is among the signal-callers set to benefit from that trend as early as this offseason, and it will be interesting to see how much traction is gained on contract talks over the coming weeks.

Extension Talks Underway Between Jaguars, QB Trevor Lawrence

April 17th, 2024 at 9:12pm CST by Ely Allen

We mentioned back in February that extension talks between the Jaguars and former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence were expected to begin. Yesterday, thanks to Grant Gordon of NFL.com, we learned that those conversations have been taking place lately, according to Lawrence.

Lawrence’s road to NFL stardom got off to a rough start after he led the league in interceptions as a rookie. He rebounded in his sophomore campaign, leading the Jaguars to the playoffs and captaining an incredible comeback win over the Chargers in the Wild Card round. 2023 saw a bit of a fall back down to reality, but Lawrence is unconcerned about last season or what it could mean for his new potential contract. According to Lawrence, the extension is not at the forefront of his mind.

“There’s definitely been some conversations as far as where that’s at now,” Lawrence told the media earlier this week. “It’s not really my focus. I’d love to obviously be a Jag for as long as possible…But…going into my fourth year, it’s not like this is necessarily going to be my last season.”

Lawrence is referring to the fifth-year option included in the rookie contracts of all first-round picks. Jacksonville has yet to make a determination, something it will be required to do this offseason, but it’s a near guarantee that the team will pick up his option, giving them this year and potentially next year, as well, to work out a long-term contract.

Regardless of when it occurs, Lawrence appears focused on the work at hand. “It’s not really my focus right now. At the end of the day, my job isn’t going to change whether I get extended or not before this season. My job is to go win games and to be the best I can be for this team so we can have a chance to win the Super Bowl. Even if I get the contract extension, that’s still my job. Even more so. There’s even more expectation and pressure on that. For me, I have the same focus and the same mindset.”

While Lawrence is excited about the potential of earning his first big NFL contract, the 24-year-old is being realistic about what it will take to get the money he desires. “I can’t lie. Obviously, it would be nice to have that done and feel good about it, but no, it’s not really the focus right now,” he said. “I know where we’re at, I know where we’re heading, and I know what I have to do. I know there’s some improvements that I have to make going forward.”

Revisiting 2021 First-Round QB Picks

March 31st, 2024 at 10:02pm CST by Adam La Rose

With the 2024 draft approaching, this year’s crop of quarterbacks will increasingly become the center of attention around the NFL. Acquiring rookie passers is viewed as the surest route to long-term success, and the urgency teams feel to generate quick rebuilds fuels aggressive moves aimed at acquiring signal-callers deemed to have high upside.

Each class is different, though, and past drafts can offer a cautionary tale about the downfalls of being overly optimistic regarding a young quarterback. In the case of the 2021 draft, five signal-callers were selected on Day 1, and to varying extents things have not gone according to plan in each case. Three quarterbacks (quite possibly four, depending on how the immediate future plays out) have been traded, while the other has not lived up to expectations.

Here is a breakdown of all five QBs taken in the first round three years ago:

Trevor Lawrence (No. 1 overall, Jaguars)

Lawrence entered the league with enormous expectations after his high school and college success, having been touted as a generational prospect. The Clemson product (like the rest of the Jaguars) endured a forgettable season under head coach Urban Meyer as a rookie, however. The latter’s firing paved the way for the arrival of Doug Pederson, known to be a QB-friendly coach. Lawrence improved in 2022, earning a Pro Bowl nod and helping guide the team to the divisional round of the postseason.

This past campaign saw the 24-year-old battle multiple nagging injuries, and he was forced to miss a game for the first time in his career. Jacksonville failed to find a rhythm on offense throughout the year, and a late-season slump left the team out of the playoffs altogether after a division title seemed to be in hand. In two seasons under Pederson, Lawrence has totaled 46 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions – figures which fall short of what the pair were thought to be capable of while working together. Nonetheless, no changes under center will be forthcoming.

Following in line with his previous stance on the matter, general manager Trent Baalke confirmed last month extension talks with Lawrence have begun. The former college national champion will be on his rookie contract through 2025 once the Jaguars exercise his fifth-year option, but megadeals finalized in a QB’s first year of extension eligibility have become commonplace around the NFL. Lawrence profiles as Jacksonville’s answer under center for years to come, something of particular significance given the team’s past struggles to find a long-term producer at the position.

Four young passers inked second contracts averaging between $51MM and $55MM per year last offseason. Lawrence is positioned to be the next in line for a similar deal, though his generally pedestrian stats could hinder his leverage to a degree. At a minimum, he will see an AAV much higher than that of his 2025 option ($25.66MM) once his next contract is in place.

Zach Wilson (No. 2, Jets)

The Jets’ decision to take Sam Darnold third overall in 2018 did not prove fruitful, and in short order the team was in need of another young passer. Wilson was immediately installed as the team’s starter, but in both his rookie campaign and his follow-up season he struggled in a number of categories. A lack of improvement regarding accuracy and interception rates made it clear a more proven commodity would be required for a team internally viewed as being a quarterback away from contention.

That drove the decision to trade for Aaron Rodgers last offseason, a move aimed at relying on the future Hall of Famer in the short term while allowing Wilson to develop as a backup. Four snaps into the season, though, Rodgers’ Achilles tear upended that plan and thrust Wilson back into a starting role. Playing behind a struggling (and injury-marred) offensive line, the BYU alum guided an offense which finished 29th in scoring and 31st in yardage. In the wake of the poor showing, owner Woody Johnson publicly disparaged Wilson in vowing to upgrade the QB2 spot.

With Tyrod Taylor now in place (and Rodgers aiming to continue playing into his 40s), Wilson’s New York days are believed to be numbered. The Jets have given him permission to seek a trade, which comes as little surprise given the team’s decision to bench him on a few occasions over the past two seasons. A fresh start for both parties could be beneficial, although value on a deal will come well short of the capital used to draft him. Offers for the 24-year-old have nevertheless been received, so a deal could be struck in relatively short order.

Once that takes place, New York will have once again cut bait with a failed QB project. Wilson could follow Darnold’s path in taking on a backup gig before receiving another starting opportunity with a new team. For the time being, though, he will aim to find the ideal supporting role in an attempt to rebuild his value.

Trey Lance (No. 3, 49ers)

Aggressively pursuing a Jimmy Garoppolo upgrade, San Francisco moved up the board at a substantial cost. The 49ers sent the Dolphins a package including three first-round picks and a third-rounder, banking on Lance’s athletic upside. After a year sitting behind Garoppolo, the North Dakota State product was positioned to take over in 2022.

However, a Week 2 ankle fracture cut Lance’s season was cut short; this proved to mark an end to his San Francisco tenure. In all, Lance made just four regular-season starts with the 49ers, as the 2022 season unintentionally resulted in Brock Purdy taking over the starter’s role. The emergence of the former Mr. Irrelevant paved the way for Lance to be traded, but his injury history and inconsistent play when on the field limited his trade market. The Cowboys won a brief bidding war, acquiring Lance for a fourth-round pick.

Lance did not see the field in his first season as a Cowboy, but Dallas will keep him in the fold for the 2024 campaign. He will thus be in line to serve as Dak Prescott’s backup for a year; the latter is not under contract for 2025, but he remains firmly in the team’s plans. Unless Prescott were to depart in free agency next offseason, a path to a No. 1 role does not currently exist for Lance.

The 23-year-old could nevertheless still be viewed as a worthwhile developmental prospect given his age and athletic traits. The Lance acquisition has clearly proven to be a mistake on the 49ers’ part, though, especially given the success the team has had without him. What-ifs will remain a part of this 49ers chapter’s legacy (particularly if the current core cannot get over the Super Bowl hump) considering the substantial price paid to move up the board and the draft picks not available in subsequent years as a result.

Justin Fields (No. 11, Bears)

Like San Francisco, Chicago did not wait on the chance of having a top QB prospect fall down the draft board. The Bears moved two first-round picks, along fourth- and fifth-rounders, to move ahead of the Patriots and add a presumed long-term answer under center. Fields saw playing time early enough (10 starts as a rookie), but his performance that year left plenty of room for improvement.

A head coaching change from Matt Nagy to Matt Eberflus also brought about the arrival of a new offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy). Fields did not make the expected jump as a passer in the new system, averaging less than 150 yards per game through the air and taking 55 sacks. He became only the third quarterback to record over 1,000 yards on the ground in a season, though, showcasing his rushing ability. The Ohio State product made only incremental progress in 2023, despite an improved offensive line and the trade acquisition of wideout D.J. Moore.

As a result, speculation steadily intensified that general manager Ryan Poles – who was not a member of the regime which drafted Fields – would move on from the 25-year-old. Fields received endorsements from Eberflus, Poles and others in the building, but the team decided to move on and pave the way for (in all likelihood) Caleb Williams being drafted first overall. A conditional sixth-round pick sent Fields to the Steelers, his preferred destination.

In Pittsburgh, Fields is slated to begin as the backup Russell Wilson. Both passers face uncertain futures beyond 2024, especially with the former not on track to have his fifth-year option exercised. Fields could play his way into the starter’s role in relatively short order given the 10-year age gap between he and Wilson, who flamed out in Denver. That, in turn, could see his market value jump higher than that of the other non-Lawrence members of this class given their respective situations.

Mac Jones (No. 15, Patriots)

Drafted to become the Tom Brady successor of both the short- and long-term future, Jones was immediately installed as New England’s starter. Coming off a national title with Alabama, he appeared to set the stage for a long Patriots tenure by earning a Pro Bowl nod and finishing second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. Nothing went according to plan for team or player beyond that point, however.

Jones saw Josh McDaniels depart in the 2022 offseason, leaving head coach Bill Belichick to hand the offensive reins over to Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. That move resulted in widespread struggles on offense, and Jones regressed. Following a 2021 playoff berth, the inability to venture back to the postseason the following year led to increased speculation about the team’s future under center. That became particularly true amid reports of tension between Jones and Belichick.

With both coach and quarterback under pressure to rebound, optimism emerged when the Patriots hired Bill O’Brien as OC. That move did not produce the desired results, though, and by the end of the year Jones was benched in favor of Bailey Zappe. With a Belichick-less regime set to start over at the quarterback spot, the former was dealt to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick.

Jones has publicly stated the deal (which sent him to his hometown team) was a mutual parting of ways. A backup gig behind Lawrence could allow the pocket passer to regain some of his confidence generated by his rookie success, but his showings over the past two seasons will no doubt give teams considerable pause with respect to viewing him as a starter down the road. Jones’ athletic profile is also a less favorable one than that of Wilson, Lance and especially Fields, something which could further consign him to QB2 duties for the foreseeable future.

Four quarterbacks are considered locks to hear their names called on Day 1 of the 2024 draft, one in which each of the top three picks may very well once again be used on signal-callers. Other QB prospects are also in contention for Round 1 consideration, meaning they and their new teams will be subject to considerable scrutiny. To put it lightly, all parties involved will hope the top of this year’s class pans out better than that of its 2021 counterpart.

Jags, Trevor Lawrence Begin Extension Talks

February 29th, 2024 at 10:09pm CST by Sam Robinson

Trevor Lawrence‘s ascent encountered some turbulence last season; the Jaguars flopped down the stretch and missed the playoffs. That ending has not changed the organization’s plans with its centerpiece player.

Franchise-caliber quarterbacks often sign extensions before their fourth season. Lawrence is now in that window, becoming extension-eligible in January. Proceeding down that path, GM Trent Baalke confirmed Thursday (via NFL.com’s Cameron Wolfe) the team has begun Lawrence extension talks.

Baalke said earlier this offseason “no doubt” existed the team would extend Lawrence at some point. It may not be a lock that happens this offseason; exercising Lawrence’s fifth-year option will buy the Jags some time. That said, a host of QBs have inked their first extensions before Year 4.

Since Ryan Tannehill‘s Dolphins re-up in 2015, 11 more QBs — Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow — have signed extensions before their fourth seasons. Not having a deal done in this timeframe has been the exception, with the promise of a monster guarantee — rather than playing a fourth year on a rookie salary — factoring in prominently here.

This would be a new chapter for the Jags, who have seen their two other first-round QBs chosen in the slot-system era (Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles) not prove worthy of a big-ticket extension.

Lawrence, 24, is the only member of five-first-rounder 2021 QB contingent who is a lock to be the 2024 starter for the team that drafted him. Trey Lance has been traded, while Zach Wilson has been granted permission to find a trade partner. Justin Fields will probably be on the move soon, and Mac Jones‘ future in New England is murky. That said, Lawrence has not yet distinguished himself as a top-tier passer despite generational prospect status back in ’21.

After a late-season Lawrence surge drove the Jaguars to the 2022 playoffs and a historic wild-card comeback, the Clemson product ranked 17th in QBR last season — a 9-8 Jacksonville showing. Lawrence, whose INT count spiked from eight to 14 from 2022-23, did battle through extensive injury trouble last year. Ankle and knee sprains did not end up sidelining the durable QB last season, but a Week 16 AC joint injury — during a woeful performance in Tampa — shelved him in Week 17. The Titans then upset the Jaguars to end their playoff push in Week 18.

The Dolphins waited a year before talking a Tua Tagovailoa extension; those talks are taking place this offseason. Far more significant injury issues clouded Tagovailoa’s future going into last season, whereas Lawrence has missed just one career game. The former national championship-winning QB did effectively go through a lost rookie season, with the Urban Meyer experiment backfiring spectacularly. That could lead to this Jags regime pressing pause. But with talks already beginning, the prospect of a Lawrence contract topping $50MM per year — a price that obviously will change the Jags’ roster-building blueprint — coming to pass this year is in play.

Jaguars GM Trent Baalke On QB Trevor Lawrence

January 28th, 2024 at 8:09am CST by Rory Parks

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, who now has three years of service time under his belt, is eligible for a contract extension. Our Sam Robinson, however, suggested at the end of December that Jacksonville may wait to enter into extension talks with the former No. 1 overall pick, who did not take the leap forward that many had anticipated when the 2023 season began. Jags GM Trent Baalke did not put a timetable on those dicussions, but he did imply that a new deal for Lawrence is not exactly at the top of the agenda at the moment.

“As far as Trevor and the long-term relationship with this team, there’s no doubt in that,” Baalke said at a press conference on Thursday (via Myles Simmons of Pro Football Talk). “We’re going to get something done at the appropriate time.”

The Jaguars will surely exercise Lawrence’s fifth-year option sometime before the May 2 deadline. That will lock in a fully-guaranteed salary of $21.98MM for the 2025 season, and when combined with the $1.06MM salary he is due to make in 2024, Jacksonville essentially has Lawrence under club control for two more years at an $11.5MM AAV. Even if the Clemson product is not yet a top tier signal-caller, that qualifies as excellent value.

When asked to assess Lawrence’s performance in 2023 and how to improve his production moving foreard, Baalke said, “I think Trevor had another learning year, right? Like we all do when we’re a third-year guy in this league. I think there are some areas he made great strides in. You look at this season, one thing we’ve got to do is we’ve got to — two things, it works both ways — we’ve got to do a better job of keeping him safe and protected and he’s got to do a better job of protecting himself.”

Baalke referenced the myriad injuries that Lawrence faced in his third year in the league, including a concussion, a knee sprain, an ankle sprain, and a sprained AC joint. Although Lawrence was able to play through the first three of those ailments, they certainly affected his performance, and the sprained AC joint forced him to sit out Jacksonville’s Week 17 contest against the Panthers. That was the first game that Lawrence had missed in his career.

In his final four games of the 2023 campaign, Lawrence failed to post a quarterback rating above 83.9 and completed 60% of his passes for seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. Jacksonville lost all four of those contests, including a Week 18 matchup with the 5-11 Titans that was meaningless for Tennessee but that would have put the Jaguars in the playoffs as AFC South champions if they had won it. In all, the Jags lost five of their last six games to drop them from contention for the conference’s top seed to a postseason non-participant (the only game the club won in that stretch was the Week 17 contest that Lawrence missed).

Now 24, Lawrence still has time to live up to the vast potential that made him such a coveted prospect when he entered the professional ranks. It may even be fair to write off his rookie season in 2021, which was spent primarily under the disastrous stewardship of then-HC Urban Meyer. Nonetheless, Baalke may want to see a step forward in 2024 before making any significant contractual decisions.

In 2023, Lawrence completed 65.6% of his passes for 4,016 yards and 21 TDs against 14 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 88.5. He did run for 339 yards on 70 carries (4.8 YPC), tallying four rushing touchdowns in the process.

Jaguars To Activate WR Christian Kirk

January 6th, 2024 at 11:21am CST by Ben Levine

As the Jaguars prepare for a crucial Week 18 matchup against the Titans, the team could be welcoming back a key member of their offense. According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Jaguars are planning to activate wide receiver Christian Kirk from injured reserve. Kirk returned to practice earlier this week.

Kirk underwent core muscle surgery only a month ago, but the Jaguars are planning to activate him after a minimum stay on injured reserve. While the wideout is expected to join the active roster, Rapoport cautions that Kirk is still listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision tomorrow.

“I’m feeling better day by day and just kind of taking it from that standpoint right now,” Kirk said this week (via the team’s website). “I’m just trying to progress every day and do the best that I can to get out there if I can.”

After putting up career-best numbers during his first season in Jacksonville, Kirk has continued his production into 2023. He’s actually increased his receiving yards per game (65.2 to 65.6), receiving success rate (52.6 to 57.6), and catch percentage (63.2 to 67.1), and in his 12 appearances, he’d hauled in 57 catches for 787 yards and three scores. Pro Football Focus has graded him 45th among 125 qualifying wide receivers this season, with the site also giving him a top-15 positional grade for his pass blocking.

Zay Jones has been sidelined for two of Kirk’s four missed games, forcing the Jaguars to lean on their depth behind Calvin Ridley. Tim Jones, Parker Washington, Elijah Cooks, and Jamal Agnew have all seen an increase in snaps over the past few weeks.

While Kirk’s availability will need to be watched, much of the focus in Jacksonville will surround the status of Trevor Lawrence. After missing the first start of his career last weekend, the quarterback practiced on Wednesday for the first time since suffering a sprained AC joint on Christmas Eve.

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