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Release Candidate

Release Candidate: Lions S Miles Killebrew

July 9th, 2019 at 10:00am CST by Zachary Links

The February release (and subsequent retirement) of Glover Quin, in theory, should have put safety Miles Killebrew in line for an elevated role in 2019. But, instead of moving from the bench to the starting lineup, ESPN.com’s Michael Rothstein believes that he could be on the roster bubble. 

“Killa” has shown bursts of promise while providing valuable special teams help, but he has yet to make a major mark on defense. Even without Quin, the Lions have other safety options from which to choose, including Quandre Diggs, Tavon Wilson, third-round rookie Will Harris, and rising sophomore Tracy Walker.

Killebrew’s practice performance in the coming weeks may dictate his NFL future. There are a number of potential outcomes, ranging from a starting gig at free safety alongside Diggs to a release that could expose him to the waiver wire just prior to the start of the season. There’s also the in-between that could sting the player even more than getting cut – Killebrew could be relegated to a special teams/reserve role yet again as he enters the final year of his paltry rookie contract.

If Killebrew can’t break through this summer, his best outcome might be a release and an opportunity to flex his hard-hitting style elsewhere.

NFL Release Candidates Series

July 4th, 2019 at 7:00pm CST by Zachary Links

As NFL rosters begin to take shape this summer, teams will have some difficult choices to make. Despite having varying degrees of potential and upside, many noteworthy veterans will be released between now and the 53-man deadline.

Here at PFR, we’ve been profiling some of the more interesting release candidates from around the NFL. In case you missed them, here are our entries in the Release Candidates series, so far:

Release Candidates: Seahawks QBs Geno Smith, Paxton Lynch

July 4th, 2019 at 9:30am CST by Zachary Links

The Seahawks’ quarterback room has some serious name value. Behind starter Russell Wilson, the club is currently rostering both Geno Smith and Paxton Lynch. 

The odds of both players making the final cut is slim. Historically, the Seahawks have carried only two quarterbacks on the 53-man roster and both players have their warts.

Smith, a former second-round pick of the Jets, has yet to do much at the pro level. Once positioned as the Jets’ starting quarterback, his last attempt at NFL relevance was stopped by the fist of a teammate and a subsequently broken jaw. Lynch, a former first-round pick of the Broncos, lost the starting QB competition twice to former seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian.

To date, Lynch has four career starts on his resume with a 61.7% completion rate, 792 passing yards yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions. Smith – who has 40 career appearances with 31 starts – hasn’t fared much better in a larger sample. He’s completed 57.7% of his throws with just 29 touchdowns against 36 picks.

One of these QBs will probably be out of Seattle by the time September rolls around, and there’s a chance that both will be gone. Last year, the Seahawks traded for Brett Hundley in the preseason and installed him as Wilson’s backup, so the Seahawks’ next No. 2 QB could be with another team as of this writing.

If things don’t work out for Lynch or Smith, they’ll have options. Despite their missteps, they’re both on the right side of 30 and may still hold appeal for evaluators who considered drafting them just a few years ago. And, if an NFL opportunity doesn’t present itself, both players may find a home in the upstart XFL.

“We’re watching the backup quarterback camp battles. One of these guys is going to get cut,” XFL commissioner Oliver Luck said of the Smith/Lynch situation. “There’s a bunch of those going on. We might not get all of those guys, the quote-unquote loser of those, but a Geno or Paxton is not going to end up on a practice squad. There are a bunch of 3-4-5-year guys that are in that boat. They’ve been on rosters, practice squad, been yo-yo’d two years. They need to play, and that’s my argument to them, that it’s very doable here.”

Both players have just $25K guaranteed on their one-year deals, so the Seahawks wouldn’t lose much by releasing either player.

Release Candidate: 49ers G Joshua Garnett

July 3rd, 2019 at 10:00am CST by Zachary Links

Few were surprised when the 49ers declined guard Joshua Garnett‘s fifth-year option for the 2020 season. The former first-round pick still has one year to go on his original four-year rookie deal, but it’s not a given that he’ll be with the club in 2019. 

[RELATED: 49ers Attend Workout For Supplemental Draft Prospect]

The Niners used the No. 28 pick to select Garnett in 2016, but they’ve yet to see much from him at the pro level. The Stanford product started in eleven of his 15 games as a rookie, but even then, his performance was underwhelming – Garnett racked up penalties and didn’t excel in run blocking or pass blocking. He then missed all of 2017 after undergoing knee surgery and only saw action as a reserve in seven games last year. At a rate of $10.35MM, it made little sense to keep Garnett for 2020, especially since the option would have been guaranteed for injury.

This year, Garnett is said to be healthy, but that ensures little in terms of performance. If he stumbles in training camp this year, the Niners could conceivably cut him to save $1.7MM against $1.2MM in dead money.

For now, Garnett will push to beat out Mike Person for a starting job on the interior line. Ultimately, however, he could be pushed off of the 53-man roster altogether.

Release Candidate: Broncos DE DeMarcus Walker

June 27th, 2019 at 10:00am CST by Zachary Links

Two years ago, the Broncos used a second-round pick to select DeMarcus Walker out of Florida State. Today, the defensive end may be on Denver’s roster bubble.

[RELATED: Broncos TE Jake Butt Eyeing Training Camp Return]

Walker appeared in ten games for the Broncos as a rookie, but saw the field just three times in 2018. At one point, the Broncos tried to jumpstart his career by moving him to outside linebacker before shifting him back to defensive end, but, so far, nothing has worked.

Ordinarily, a team would stick things out with a young second-round pick like Walker, but Walker finds himself buried in a defensive line group that also includes Derek Wolfe, Adam Gotsis, Shelby Harris, Zach Kerr, and third-round pick Dre’Mont Jones. To make the 53-man cut, he’ll have to leapfrog at least one veteran while staving off the rest of the pack on the 90-man offseason roster.

If Walker doesn’t stick with the Broncos, you can expect him to immediately draw interest on the waiver wire. The 6’4″, 280-pound defender compiled 16 sacks as a senior at FSU and had the attention of several teams heading into the ’17 draft. In fact, before selecting Walker at No. 51 overall, the Broncos pondered a trade up to land him.

Release Candidate: Texans TE Darren Fells

June 26th, 2019 at 8:39am CST by Zachary Links

The Texans signed Darren Fells to a one-year deal in March, adding a proven blocking tight end to their offensive unit. However, the 33-year-old could be looking for work before the summer is through. 

Roughly six weeks after signing Fells, the Texans used a third round pick on San Diego State’s Kahale Warring, a 6’5″ tight end who has shown serious promise as a blocker. Meanwhile, the Texans also have the Jordans – 2018 rookies Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas – on their TE depth chart. Fells faces an uphill battle, even after the Texans released Ryan Griffin in May.

Fells’ blue collar blocking skills have made him a known commodity in a league obsessed with offensively explosive tight ends, but they might not be enough to get him over the hump in Houston. It’s also worth noting that Fells, despite his rep, wasn’t all that sharp of a blocker last season. Pro Football Focus assigned Fells a 72.9 pass-blocking grade in 2018, which put him near the middle of the pack among his position group, and a 55.9 grade in the run game, a mark which ranked near the bottom of the league.

Fells’ blocking foibles weren’t just recognized by the advanced metrics. The Browns, who inked him to a three-year, $12MM deal in the 2018 offseason, released him this year and took on a dead money hit of $1.4MM.

Fells seems likely to hook on somewhere for the 2019 season, but it might not happen with the Texans, who guaranteed him just $100K on his one-year, $1.5MM deal.

Release Candidate: Artie Burns

June 23rd, 2019 at 9:10pm CST by Rory Parks

The Steelers surprised their fair share of draft pundits when they selected Artie Burns in the first round of the 2016 NFL draft, and Burns has not done much to prove his doubters wrong over his first three seasons in the league. His strongest season was his rookie campaign, when he notched three interceptions despite starting just nine games.

He could not build on that performance, though, and he struggled with coverage in 2017 and lost his starting job in 2018, appearing primarily on special teams in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh has not had great success in drafting quality corners in recent history, and as of right now, Burns looks like another example of those difficulties.

The Steelers’ decision to not exercise Burns’ 2020 option was something of a no-brainer, given that it would have been worth just shy of $10MM and would have been guaranteed for injury. And earlier this month, Ed Bouchette of The Athletic opined that the club may cut Burns before it’s required to pay him an $800K roster bonus on the first day of training camp.

However, Mark Kaboly of The Athletic suggested just a few days ago that if the Steelers haven’t cut Burns yet, they are likely to keep him around this year. Kaboly did note his belief that 2019 would be Burns’ last hurrah in Pittsburgh.

But just by looking at the financials, it would seem that Bouchette’s take on the situation may be more accurate. If the Steelers cut Burns prior to training camp, they would not only save the $800K roster bonus, but they would also create roughly $1.8MM of cap space. That is not an insignificant amount for Pittsburgh, which currently has just over $1MM of cap room. Although the team has wrapped up its 2019 draft class, it will certainly need to create more space at some point just to conduct regular business during the season, and their already small amount of space will become even smaller when the Rule of 51 is no longer applicable.

And while it may not seem wise to cut a young former first-rounder who plays a premium position just to save some cap space, the Steelers bolstered their CB corps with free agent Steven Nelson and third-round draft choice Justin Layne. The club is also higher on Mike Hilton and Cam Sutton than it is on Burns, and Joe Haden serves as the team’s No. 1 corner. So Burns is at best the sixth corner on the depth chart, which makes him a fringe player that could be cut at any time.

If he is still on the roster by the time he is due the $800K bonus, then the Steelers clearly will give him one more chance. But it would not be surprising to see him searching for a new team before training camp.

Release Candidate: Ravens RB Kenneth Dixon

June 21st, 2019 at 10:00am CST by Zachary Links

Could a running back with a career average of 4.8 yards per carry really be on the roster bubble? That’s the case with Ravens tailback Kenneth Dixon, who finds himself on a crowded depth chart at the position. 

[RELATED: Ravens WR Marquise Brown May Not Be Ready For Training Camp]

Its been a rocky road for Dixon, who entered the league as a fourth-round pick in 2016. He made a splash early on, averaging 4.3 yards per carry as a rookie, but lost his 2017 season to a torn meniscus. Before the surgery, Dixon was slapped with a four-game suspension for PEDs, which already hurt his standing in the organization.

Last year, Dixon was primed to serve as the Ravens’ leading rusher, but a knee injury midway through the season opener sent him to IR. When he was brought back in December, he showed serious promise in a limited sample. Dixon ran for 289 yards off of 47 carries, giving him a 5.5 yards per tote average on the year.

In short bursts, Dixon has looked the part of a starter. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old hasn’t been able to find sustained success and he now finds himself behind free agent pickup Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and possibly fourth-round rookie Justice Hill.

If the Ravens carry only three running backs on the Week 1 roster, it seems unlikely that Dixon will make the cut. He has a shot at staying with the flock if they carry four, but team history suggests that they’ll roll with just a trio of RBs when the season begins.

A Dixon release would result in just $87K in dead money against $720K in cap savings.

Release Candidate: Tavon Austin

June 20th, 2019 at 8:19am CST by Zachary Links

In 2013, the Rams were blown away by the blazing speed of Tavon Austin and used the No. 8 overall pick draft to secure him. In 2016, the Rams inked him a four-year, $42MM extension, making him the 12th highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL at the time. Today, Austin finds himself on the Cowboys’ roster bubble. 

Austin still possesses game-changing speed, but injuries continue to hold him back. Last year, a groin pull limited him to just seven games in which he caught eight passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns, which more or less sums up his career to date – Austin put up a DeSean Jackson-type yards per catch average, but couldn’t stay on the field.

Austin also holds appeal for his ability to play out of the backfield and serve as a slippery returner, but both roles seem to have been filled in Dallas. The Cowboys tapped Memphis product Tony Pollard in the draft to play as the change-of-pace back behind star Ezekiel Elliott and return kicks. Meanwhile, newcomer Randall Cobb is slated to be the Cowboys’ main slot receiver.

Wide receivers Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Cobb are locks for the roster and Allen Hurns isn’t far behind in the pecking order. That leaves one, or possibly two, WR spots on the 53-man roster, and Noah Brown and Jon’Vea Johnson both seem to have a leg up on Austin, who was limited in OTAs and minicamp.

The Cowboys re-upped Austin on a one-year deal in the spring, but the pact includes just $500K guaranteed. Unless Austin can quickly prove that he is healthy and ready to make an impact, he’ll likely be released in the coming weeks.

South Notes: Colts, Bucs, Falcons, Newton

December 11th, 2018 at 9:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Although Matt Eberflus was tied to Josh McDaniels when he accepted the offer to become the Colts‘ defensive coordinator, Stephen Holder of The Athletic notes (subscription required) Chris Ballard was the driving force behind the then-Cowboys linebackers coach moving to Indianapolis. The second-year Colts GM held Ebeflus in such high regard that he may have been the DC choice without McDaniels’ involvement, though likely not had the Colts hired a defensively geared coach. But in nearly all of the interviews the Colts conducted, Holder reports Eberflus’ name was broached. Despite a host of young players for a unit not expected to be particularly strong, the first-year DC has the Colts holding the No. 11 DVOA defense going into Week 15. The 2017 Colts produced the No. 27 DVOA defense.

The latest from some South teams, continuing to Tampa.

  • It is possible DeSean Jackson has played his final game with the Buccaneers. Playing on a contract that includes no additional guaranteed money, the 32-year-old wide receiver had his injured thumb immobilized, Greg Auman of The Athletic tweets. Jackson has been unable to grip footballs with his injured hand, forcing him to miss the past two Bucs games. He had previously played through this malady, per Auman (on Twitter). Tampa Bay’s top deep threat hopes to play again this season, but that’s not a lock. And with a nonguaranteed $10MM base salary on the Bucs’ books next year, Jackson is a prime release candidate in 2019.
  • Most believe Buccaneers GM Jason Licht has a better chance of returning in 2019 than Dirk Koetter does, Jenna Laine of ESPN.com writes. Despite the Bucs still staring at what will likely soon become an 11-season playoff drought, Licht’s ability to draft and extend the likes of Mike Evans and Cameron Brate has pleased ownership, Laine adds. Licht signed an extension that takes him through the 2019 season, but it remains possible the Glazers move on from he, Koetter and Jameis Winston and start fresh next year.
  • Arthur Blank said he has not lost faith in Thomas Dimitroff or Dan Quinn, but the Falcons have since endured another one-sided defeat and now sit 4-9. They already made other moves, like replacing highly paid right tackle Ryan Schraeder with Ty Sambrailo, for the future. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes more losses will continue to cause suspicion as to whether Blank will change his mind and pivot to a new power structure.
  • Derek Newton‘s Saints contract is a two-year pact, according to his agency (Twitter link). It appears the Saints will use their upcoming practices to gauge whether the former longtime Texans right tackle is fit enough to the point he could be more than an injury fill-in.
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