The Chiefs did well to lock down Patrick Mahomes to a contract that does not expire until March 2032. While the summer 2020 extension gave Mahomes a $10MM AAV advantage on his peers, the field caught up less than two years after the deal was finalized.

With Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson moving past the $50MM-per-year barrier on long-term deals in April, Mahomes’ $45MM-AAV pact has fallen to seventh at the position. Accomplishment-wise, Mahomes laps his 20-something peers but has nine seasons left on an extension that has not blazed a trail for others. His rivals have surpassed his average salary and have done so on traditional QB accords.

Chiefs GM Brett Veach said the team would look into Mahomes’ deal after other QB pacts became finalized. This year’s crop is only halfway there, as Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert remain tied to their rookie contracts. But the Chiefs may be looking to avoid a potential standoff down the road. Mahomes should be expected to enter the 2023 season as the league’s highest-paid QB again, per Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk.

Kansas City probably should not be expected to relinquish the control (and roster-building advantages) the 2020 extension provided, making a scenario in which the team tears up the through-2031 contract in favor of a traditional — and more player-friendly — structure unlikely. Florio suggests tacking on three years and $156MM to the deal, one that is already north of $450MM in total value due to its length and Mahomes having begun to cash in on incentives. That type of bump would move Mahomes past Jackson’s $52MM-per-year average. A new agreement of any sort would undoubtedly require a guarantee adjustment as well, with the Hurts and Jackson deals serving as relevant source material. But this will be an unusual renegotiation, given the time left on Mahomes’ current pact.

Mahomes, 27, is not believed to have made a push for an adjustment that puts him on par with his peers. But the 2017 first-round pick changed the Chiefs’ trajectory to the point they have won two Super Bowls and appeared in three during his five-year starter tenure. Prior to their Mahomes-led Super Bowl LIV title, the Chiefs had gone 50 years without a Super Bowl berth. His two MVPs are more than any active QB except Aaron Rodgers, who began his starter tenure 10 years before Mahomes. The Texas Tech product’s two Super Bowl MVP honors lead all active NFLers. The Chiefs taking a hardline approach with their transformative player would not exactly be a good look. That said, Mahomes did agree to a 10-year extension. An adjustment so early would be a precedent-breaking transaction. It would also be very interesting if Mahomes lobbies for a shorter-term deal during a renegotiation of sorts.

Only $63.1MM came fully guaranteed in Mahomes’ 2020 deal. Deshaun Watson‘s Browns pact — one the NFL has successfully tabbed an outlier — includes $230MM locked in. Jackson passed Russell Wilson for second in fully guaranteed money by securing $135MM from the Ravens last month. The Chiefs did include guarantee mechanisms that protect Mahomes, giving him year-out security. His 2024 roster bonus ($34.9MM) became guaranteed March 17 of this year; this cycle repeats in the years to follow. But the market has changed considerably since the parties finalized the QB’s second contract.

Kansas City also has a new Chris Jones extension to construct, in all likelihood, with the team’s top pass rusher entering the final season of his four-year, $80MM deal. Mahomes’ unorthodox extension helped the Chiefs extend Jones the first time, though the organization passed on a third Tyreek Hill contract last year.

Should the Chiefs indeed proceed down this path with Mahomes so early in his current deal, it will be one of the most interesting contractual processes in recent NFL history. With Burrow potentially set to take the market to $55MM per year, the Chiefs would have a unique task to complete in the coming months.

While Aaron Rodgers broke the $50MM-per-year barrier in 2022, the Packers quarterback signed an unusually structured deal that tacked on three years to his previous pact. Jalen Hurts‘ $51MM-AAV accord represented a true long-term deal in this price range, moving another quarterback past Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs and Mahomes worked on his outlier deal in 2020, and the sides reached an agreement on a 10-year extension worth $450MM. At the time, Mahomes’ AAV stood $10MM north of the NFL’s second-highest average salary. The field caught up with the superstar passer quick. Hurts’ deal bumps Mahomes down to fifth among QB AAV, and the Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert extensions will almost definitely drop the two-time MVP out of the top five.

It would be unusual for a team to renegotiate with a player with this many years of control remaining on his contract, and the Chiefs are not committing to doing so. Then again, the franchise’s previous pre-Mahomes Super Bowl berth occurred in 1969. The team should not be expected to enter into a contract squabble with the three-time Super Bowl starter. Brett Veach said Thursday the team would reassess where its QB stands after the Bengals and Chargers lock up their passers.

“We have a special relationship with [Mahomes] and his agent. We’re in constant communication,” Veach said. “It’s one of those things — and I think coach [Andy Reid] hinted on this in his last press conference — where as soon as one guy gets done, it’s kind of the blueprint and the model. And a few years later, it’s jumped and exceeded.

“But I think that this organization and the relationship we have with Pat will always be working to make sure that we’re doing right by everybody. There will be a couple more contracts that still have to get done — Burrow and Herbert — and once they do, I think you kind of look at everything and assess where you are and what you can do and take it from there.”

After Rodgers signed his third contract (worth $22MM on average) back in 2013, the quarterback market did not move much for the next four years. By 2017, Derek Carr had only raised the AAV bar to $25MM. Kirk Cousins‘ fully guaranteed pact in 2018 ($28MM per) opened the floodgates, and the position’s importance obviously gives the game’s reliable starters considerable leverage. The QB market spiked from $35MM (Russell Wilson‘s third-contract AAV from an April 2019 agreement) to $50MM over a three-year span, and Hurts has set the table for Burrow and Herbert to move it higher. This leaves Mahomes in a strange place.

Lapping his peers in terms of accomplishments, the two-time Super Bowl MVP is signed through 2031. No other QB’s deal runs past 2028; the passers extended since Mahomes’ contract have understandably preferred traditional structures to maximize leverage while still in their primes. Mahomes, 27, has not made a known push to receive any raise, and his contract does contain guarantee mechanisms — which lock in salaries a year out — that protect him. But as the market keeps rising, Mahomes’ deal will continue to be surpassed by players who have achieved far less.

The six-year veteran played most of the 2022 playoffs with a high ankle sprain, aggravating it multiple times. While Mahomes does not appear danger of missing offseason time, he said this week (via NFL.com’s James Palmer) the ankle is not fully healed yet. Mahomes, who underwent toe surgery in 2021 and missed workouts during that offseason, said swelling has subsided and he is navigating independent offseason workouts fine. He worked out with Boston College receiver prospect Zay Flowers on Wednesday. But pain remains at times. Still, Mahomes said (via Palmer) he does not expect to be limited during OTAs. Mahomes has not missed a full game due to injury since 2019.

JANUARY 29: No surprises here, but Mahomes will play in today’s AFC Championship Game against the Bengals, as Schefter reports. Head coach Andy Reid said his signal-caller is moving around well and that the team’s game plan is expansive enough to minimize any physical limitations Mahomes might have.

JANUARY 22: The Chiefs qualified for their fifth consecutive AFC title game yesterday, but the top story leading into next week’s game (regardless of their opponent or its location) will be the health status of their star quarterback. Patrick Mahomes missed time due to an ankle injury midway through Kansas City’s win over Jacksonville, and underwent further testing today.

An MRI has revealed that Mahomes is dealing with a high ankle sprain (Twitter link via ESPN’s Adam Schefter). The latter further reports that the injury is “nothing more than that,” however, meaning that his availability for the conference title game will simply be a matter of pain tolerance. In the immediate aftermath of the game, Mahomes confidently said (via Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports, on Twitter) that he would be “good to go” next Sunday. USA Today’s Tyler Dragon tweets, unsurprisingly, that he is indeed expected to play.

The 27-year-old was sidelined briefly after suffering the injury. In his absence, Kansas City turned to veteran Chad Henne under center for 13 snaps; in that time, he completed five of seven passes, including a touchdown. Mahomes was then able to return and finish out the game, one in which he was clearly playing at far less than 100% but still managed to put up efficient production (195 yards and a pair of scores on 22-of-30 passing).

The 2018 MVP is likely to add a second such title to his decorated resume this year, underscoring his importance to the Chiefs as a Super Bowl contender but also how crippling his injury could be, depending on its severity. Mobility has always been a key element of his skillset, so being limited on that front would have a significant effect on his level of play and, in all likelihood, Kansas City’s offensive gameplan.

More will be known as the week progresses with respect to Mahomes’ level of participation in practice. The extent of his recovery will no doubt be a major talking point in the coming days, as it could go a long way in determining the AFC’s representative in next month’s Super Bowl.