Jarrett Stidham

Zach Wilson In Uphill Battle To Be Broncos’ Backup QB?

June 19th, 2024 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Ahead of training camp, the Broncos have a quarterback who spent a season in Sean Payton‘s offense and another the team drafted in the first round. Zach Wilson looms as a wild card.

As Jarrett Stidham enjoys an advantage from spending 2023 in Denver and Bo Nix likely to start the majority (barring injury) of the Broncos’ games this season, Wilson sits in an unusual position. The Broncos and Jets agreed on a salary compromise to facilitate a trade finalized days before the draft, but the former No. 2 overall pick is not a lock to secure a spot on the team’s 53-man roster.

Stidham and Wilson may well be vying for one roster spot, and The Athletic’s Nick Kosmider notes the latter has some ground to close if he is to be Denver’s backup to begin the season (subscription required). The Denver Post’s Parker Gabriel also views Wilson as in third place in this competition exiting minicamp.

In terms of arm talent, Wilson did reveal an advantage over the other two Denver QBs during on-field workouts. This has not exactly been the BYU alum’s issue during his NFL career, with a dazzling pro day leading to the Jets deciding to select him second overall and trade Sam Darnold. Wilson quickly revealed himself to be a poor decision-maker with inconsistent mechanics in New York, leading to multiple 2022 benchings and another demotion — for a player (Tim Boyle) Robert Saleh admitted was less talented — late last season.

Payton said (via ESPN.com’s Jeff Legwold) he does not have a hard deadline — before game week, that is — on deciding if Nix, Stidham or Wilson will be his Week 1 starter. A recent report pointed to the job being Nix’s to lose. Considering the Broncos’ investment in the recent Oregon standout, it would be stunning if the No. 12 overall pick was not in the lineup early in the season. As of now, Stidham appears to have the better shot among the veterans of delaying Nix’s debut.

Payton regularly kept two quarterbacks on his active roster in New Orleans, doing so before the NFL reimplemented the emergency third-QB rule. The league further increasing flexibility for teams regarding their QB3 spot keeps the door open for the loser of the Wilson-Stidham competition to end up on the practice squad. Though, select teams could certainly eye the competition’s odd man out for an active-roster role. Wilson would need to be exposed to waivers if cut, whereas Stidham is a vested veteran. If the Broncos waive Wilson, they would be hit with $2.7MM in dead money. This would obviously represent another setback for a once-coveted prospect.

The Broncos, of course, are in Year 1 of a record-setting dead money process stemming from their Russell Wilson release. A minor guarantee for Zach Wilson might not move the needle too much when Payton decides on his backup.

Stidham is attached to a two-year, $10MM deal, but just $1MM of his 2024 base salary ($4.49MM) is guaranteed. As a vested vet, Stidham will see the rest of that money become locked in just before the season. Denver trading one of the veterans, while adding another QB to be its emergency option on the P-squad, also would seem to be on the table. The preseason’s conclusion has been a trade window for many years.

Stidham or Wilson seeing significant playing time this year will mean something has gone wrong, as Nix is 24 and set the Division I-FBS record for quarterback starts. Training camp and the preseason will bring more important reps for Wilson, but after being paid to leave the Jets, the erratic talent — who arrived after the Broncos’ offseason program had begun — looks to be falling behind with his new team.

QB Bo Nix On Track To Start For Broncos?

June 10th, 2024 at 10:03pm CST by Adam La Rose

To little surprise, the Broncos were one of six teams who used a first-round pick on a quarterback during this year’s draft. Bo Nix – head coach Sean Payton‘s target throughout the pre-draft process – is in line to serve as Denver’s starter at some point in the near future.

The Oregon alum is one of three signal-callers who has spent time with the first-team offense during offseason practices to date. Nix is competing with trade acquisition Zach Wilson and returnee Jarrett Stidham. The latter has familiarity with Payton’s scheme dating back to his two starts at the end of the 2023 campaign, and he opened OTAs tentatively atop the depth chart.

Nix has impressed so far, though, as ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler notes (video link). The 24-year-old made a record-breaking 61 starts in college, and that experience should allow him to transition to the pro game fairly quickly. Nix’s accuracy was a central aspect of his success with the Ducks, and his ability to translate that at the NFL level will be a key talking point for the Broncos if he sees playing time as a rookie. Mike Klis of 9News confirms the QB1 job is Nix’s to lose at this point, adding he is on pace to start Week 1.

Of course, this week’s minicamp – and, more importantly, training camp this summer – will more clearly define the pecking order at the position. Denver took on an historic dead money charge by releasing Russell Wilson, clearing the way for Payton to move forward in his Broncos tenure with his preference under center. If that proves to be Nix right away, he will be expected to elevate an offense which put up middling numbers in several categories last year.

Klis adds that the battle for QB2 between Stidham and Wilson will be worth monitoring. The former is due $6MM in 2024, but only $1MM of his salary is guaranteed. The latter, by contrast, is owed the guaranteed $2.75MM Denver agreed to take on as part of the trade agreement with the Jets. Klis notes the financial element of the situation could come into play, and that will especially be true if Wilson can demonstrate why he was a recent No. 2 pick.

Like all teams, nothing is truly settled at this point of the offseason. Still, signs still point to Nix holding down starting duties right away as the Broncos continue to sort out their quarterback pecking order over the course of the offseason.

Latest On Broncos’ QB Competition

May 19th, 2024 at 10:13pm CST by Adam La Rose

The Broncos added their preferred Russell Wilson successor in the first round of the 2024 draft. Bo Nix is positioned to see plenty of time at the helm of Denver’s offense over the course of his rookie contract, but that may not mean he sees the field right away this year.

The decision to move on from Wilson (along with more recent one to waive Ben DiNucci) has left Denver with three signal-callers. Nix is joined by offseason trade acquisition Zach Wilson and returnee Jarrett Stidham. The latter is the only one with experience working under head coach Sean Payton.

A report from earlier this month confirmed, to no surprise, that Stidham is expected to open OTAs with the Broncos’ first-team offense. The 27-year-old started two games last year after Wilson’s benching, and he will have the opportunity to earn the Week 1 starting gig depending on how Nix and Wilson are evaluated over the course of the summer. Payton recently confirmed those two passers will receive plenty of looks as well, though.

“We’ll figure it out,” the former Saints Super Bowl winner said during minicamp about a QB rotation once training camp begins in July (via ESPN’s Jeff Legwold). “With young guys, the reps are important. But we’ll have a rotation, and we’ll go from there.”

Wilson struggled mightily during his time with the Jets. The 2021 second overall pick was slated for backup duties in 2023, but Aaron Rodgers‘ Achilles tear thrust him back into starting action. Wilson did not progress compared to his previous campaigns, and New York dealt him to Denver as part of a Day 3 pick swap. One year remains on his rookie contract, with the Broncos footing half of the bill per the terms of the trade.

Of course, most of the attention at Broncos’ camp will be aimed at Nix. The Auburn and Oregon product made a record-breaking 61 starts during his time in college, and he is likely much closer to his NFL ceiling than many of the five other passers selected within the draft’s opening 12 picks. Payton and Co. were frequently connected to Nix in the pre-draft process, and the Broncos had him ranked as their third-best QB prospect.

Given the team’s struggles in finding a true Peyton Manning replacement, the Broncos will be satisfied with any of their in-house options taking charge in the upcoming quarterback competition over the short term. It will be interesting to see how Nix stacks up against Stidham and Wilson, and how quickly he is handed the reins depending on their respective performances.

Broncos Made Call About Moving Up In Round 1; Team Eyed TE Help In Offseason

May 7th, 2024 at 5:54pm CST by Sam Robinson

Sean Payton admitted he was a central part of a smokescreen effort that centered on Broncos interest in moving up for a quarterback. This buzz certainly may have influenced the Vikings to trade up one spot (via the Jets), and the effort also involved Denver brass making calls about moving up the board.

The Bears heard from the Broncos about No. 9 overall, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler notes. This would add a layer to one of the more interesting smokescreens of recent years. One pick later, the Vikings moved from No. 11 to No. 10, sending the Jets fourth- and fifth-round picks to climb up and lock in J.J. McCarthy draft real estate.

This did clear the runway for the Broncos to land Bo Nix, their long-rumored target, though it helped an AFC team in the form of Day 3 draft capital. Neither the Bears nor Jets were candidates to draft a quarterback, and Payton said he viewed the Vikings as more interested in McCarthy than Nix. The Broncos are believed to have ranked the Oregon prospect as this draft’s third-best QB.

The Broncos indeed became enamored with Nix, with Fowler adding the five-year college starter was the team’s “guy the whole way.” Nix, 24, will be expected to either begin the season as the Broncos’ starter or take over from either Jarrett Stidham or Zach Wilson early. Seeing as he spent a season in Payton’s system, Stidham is on track — per 9News’ Mike Klis — to see starter work to open OTAs. Though, the primary Broncos QB storyline will be Nix’s progress in Payton’s system as the offseason turns into training camp. Stidham’s two-year, $10MM deal includes only $1MM in guaranteed 2024 salary.

Also entering the draft with a quarterback need, the Raiders lurking at No. 13 influenced the Broncos to not attempt to trade down for Nix but rather to stay at 12 and pull the trigger. This prompted many to label the pick a reach. The Broncos had interesting options had they not opted to fill their most glaring need. Brock Bowers and Laiatu Latu remained on the board. Denver was among the teams to clear Latu on his pre-draft physical, Fowler adds, noting the team would have given strong consideration to the UCLA edge rusher had it not determined Nix needed to be the pick at 12.

Latu met with the Broncos during the pre-draft process; Bowers did not. But the Georgia tight end would have filled an apparent need for the Broncos, who have seen their top receiving tight end — Greg Dulcich — run into repeated hamstring trouble. Hamstring issues have caused the 2022 third-round pick to miss extensive time in both his pro seasons, leading to four IR trips already, and Klis adds the Broncos wanted to come out of this offseason with a tight end addition. Nothing has transpired on this front, though.

Specifically, the Broncos were hoping to acquire another receiving tight end. The Raiders ended up with Bowers at No. 13, despite having traded up for Michael Mayer (albeit under a previous regime) early in last year’s second round. The Broncos did not view the free agent market as lining up with their budget, Klis adds. The market also saw two of its top names — Hunter Henry, Dalton Schultz — re-sign before free agency began.

Ex-Broncos first-rounder Noah Fant stayed with the Seahawks (two years, $21MM) but was available during the legal tampering period. Falcons cut Jonnu Smith landed with the Dolphins for just two years and $8.4MM, while the Bengals scooped up Mike Gesicki for just $2.5MM. Gerald Everett joined the Bears on a two-year, $12MM deal, while Hayden Hurst followed ex-Broncos FA target (during Nathaniel Hackett‘s offseason as HC) Will Dissly to the Chargers.

While the Broncos circled back to edge rusher in the third round (Utah’s Jonah Elliss), they did not select a tight end. The team re-signed ex-Saints cog Adam Trautman on a two-year, $7.5MM deal. Trautman led Broncos tight ends with just 204 receiving yards last season, highlighting Dulcich’s absence.

Beyond Logan Thomas, the market is fairly dry for receiving TEs. This points to Dulcich, who totaled 411 receiving yards as a rookie but played in two games last season, having another genuine opportunity to hold this job — if he can stay healthy.

Broncos To Decline Zach Wilson’s Fifth-Year Option

April 30th, 2024 at 9:35pm CST by Ben Levine

As expected, the Broncos won’t be committing to Zach Wilson for the 2025 campaign. According to ESPN’s Jeff Legwold, the Broncos have informed Wilson’s camp that they won’t be picking up the quarterback’s fifth-year option.

Considering the $22.41MM commitment that the option would have required, it’s not a surprise that the Broncos won’t lock themselves into that salary. Wilson will now hit free agency following the 2024 campaign, and he’s set to earn more than $5MM in what will be the final season of his rookie contract (the Jets are picking up a portion of that tab).

The Broncos acquired the former second-overall pick last week, swapping a sixth-round pick for a seventh-round pick along the way. Things have already changed since that acquisition, as the Broncos reached a bit for Bo Nix in the first round. The rookie could end up leading the depth chart in 2024, with only Wilson and Jarrett Stidham standing in the way.

Wilson, of course, will be seeking a fresh start in Denver. Following two underwhelming seasons to begin his career, the Jets made a major pivot last offseason when they acquired Aaron Rodgers from the Packers. The veteran suffered a season-ending injury in his first drive with his new squad, forcing Wilson back into the limelight. The third-year quarterback ended up going 4-7 under center, completing 60.1 percent of his passes for eight touchdowns and seven interceptions.

The Jets allowed Wilson to seek a trade elsewhere this offseason, although the market was predictably light considering the player’s lack of production and $11MM cap charge. They eventually found a taker in the Broncos, but following today’s move, this could prove to be only a one-year stop in Denver for Wilson.

Broncos “Leaning Toward” Jarrett Stidham As QB1

March 17th, 2024 at 11:14pm CST by Rory Parks

Before the 2024 league year began, we heard that Jarrett Stidham had a good chance to open the season as the Broncos’ starting quarterback. Now, as the dust settles on the first wave of free agency, it appears that Stidham’s hold on the QB1 job has only gotten stronger.

In evaluating the QB signings and trades that have taken place around the league, Mike Klis of 9News.com says that the Broncos “seem to be leaning toward” having Stidham serve as the starter — at least at the beginning of the 2024 campaign — and using their No. 12 overall selection on a collegiate passer. After all, while Denver considered Sam Darnold, who ultimately signed with the Vikings, Sean Payton & Co. reportedly did not make a contract offer (per Klis, Darnold strongly preferred Minnesota anyway).

Likewise, Klis reports that the Broncos did their due diligence on former Patriots signal-caller Mac Jones, but they did not make a trade offer. New England ultimately dealt Jones to the Jaguars for a sixth-round pick. Klis also says that Denver was never in on high-priced free agent options like Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield, and he adds that the club has not shown any interest in Ryan Tannehill. While there are still free agents (Tannehill) and trade candidates (Trey Lance, Zach Wilson) that the Broncos could pursue, none of them would necessarily unseat Stidham.

Notwithstanding Klis’ expectation that the Broncos’ will use their top draft choice on a quarterback, Troy Renck of the Denver Post believes the team could trade back, unless a player like Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy should fall into that range, or unless Payton is particularly high on Oregon’s Bo Nix. Renck’s sources tell him that four quarterbacks will be selected within the top six picks of the draft, and it certainly seems to be a safe bet that the first three selections will be used on passers. The Bears (No. 1 overall) and Commanders (No. 2 overall) appear poised to draft QBs, and even if the Patriots (No. 3 overall) trade back, the team that trades with them may well use that pick on a quarterback. The price to leap up the draft board to select the third- or fourth-best QB prospect in the draft would be prohibitive for a team like the Broncos that is clearly in rebuild mode (to say nothing of the fact that the Vikings, who have the No. 11 overall pick, are better-positioned to make such a move).

Obviously, if the Broncos were to trade down as Renck suggests, that would solidify Stidham as the short-term starter while helping the team pick up additional capital to address other holes on a roster that has plenty of them. One way or another, as Albert Breer of SI.com wrote on the day free agency began, Denver is not going to force anything at the QB position, and Payton’s confidence in Stidham affords them the ability to be patient, even if “patience” is not one of Payton’s favorite words.

Russell Wilson Free To Negotiate With Teams

March 6th, 2024 at 8:06am CST by Adam La Rose

MARCH 6: Although Wilson will remain a Bronco until March 13, the team will extend this free agency preview of sorts to include in-person visits with other clubs, per ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter. An unofficial agreement could conceivably commence before free agency starts, though teams interested in Wilson likely will be interested in seeing how other QB dominoes fall before committing.

MARCH 5: The Broncos officially announced on Monday that Russell Wilson will be let go, marking an end to his disappointing stint with the team. The move will not be made until the new league year begins, but Wilson could have a new agreement in place by that point.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports Denver has no issue with Wilson immediately negotiating with prospective teams. The outgoing veteran passer is still under contract with the Broncos (and will be until March 13), but with his fate already known the team will allow him to begin seeking out his next home. Wilson is therefore, for all intents and purposes, already a free agent.

With $39MM in compensation guaranteed for 2024 by the Broncos, an acquiring team will not be obligated to add the Super Bowl winner on a lucrative pact. Any base salary Wilson signs for will offset part of Denver’s obligations to him. Given the state of the 35-year-old’s value, though, a short-term pact at a low cost will likely be the means by which he begins the third chapter of his NFL career.

A number of teams will be in the market for a veteran passer as the offseason unfolds. Wilson will not be as in-demand as the likes of Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield, but he could be viewed as having higher upside than other bridge options such as Jacoby Brissett and Ryan Tannehill. While the Broncos could be in the market for an experienced signal-caller to take Wilson’s place, the top incumbent passer on the roster will likely receive the first chance to earn the starting gig.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Network notes Jarrett Stidham is in place to take on QB1 duties, especially if Denver does not add a quarterback in the first round of April’s draft (video link). Plenty could change under center in the coming months, but Payton has thrown his support behind Stidham (who signed a two-year deal last offseason) before and after he filled in for Wilson following the latter’s benching. Resources will be limited if the Broncos aim to add a pricey free agent, of course, given the cap consequences of Wilson’s release.

On that point, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reports Denver has not yet decided how to handle the move to cut Wilson. A guaranteed $22MM payment owed next week either as an option bonus or, if declined, base salary, will affect the cap charges associated with the release. The team will be hit with $35.4MM in dead money in 2024 and $49.6MM next season if the option is picked up, or cap charges of $53MM and $32MM if not. The Broncos will make a decision on how to structure Wilson’s contract while he begins the process of landing a new one.

Latest On Broncos, Russell Wilson

December 28th, 2023 at 9:55pm CST by Sam Robinson

Unsurprisingly, the Broncos’ decision to bench Russell Wilson has generated some fallout. The process that led to this call transpired during much of the team’s five-game win streak earlier this season

Wilson has been expecting to be released since shortly after the team’s win over the Chiefs on Oct. 29, according to The Athletic’s Dianna Russini (subscription required). Despite Wilson playing much better in 2023 than he did during a shockingly mediocre 2022, his contract has hovered as a big-picture issue for the Broncos.

Sean Payton acknowledged the economic component involved with this benching — one that comes exactly a year after the Raiders shelved Derek Carr to play Jarrett Stidham for contract reasons — but said the team wants to gather some intel on its backup before season’s end. With the Broncos’ last-second loss to the Patriots all but slamming the door shut on their playoff hopes, the initiation of Wilson divorce proceedings makes sense. The inevitable release will bring a seismic dead-money hit, one that will more than double the record the Falcons set last year ($40.5MM) when they traded Matt Ryan to the Colts.

It will cost the Broncos $84.6MM in dead money to cut Wilson in 2024. They will assuredly spread that number over two offseasons with a post-June 1 designation, but this will still represent a significant chapter in NFL transaction history — one that will hamstring the Broncos for two more years. It is unclear where Wilson will end up and how the Broncos — thanks to the Payton-Wilson experiment producing a midseason surge that revived the team’s playoff hopes — will go about replacing him. At 7-8, Denver’s draft slot sits 14th presently. But this drama has played out behind the scenes for weeks.

Shortly after the Broncos’ 24-9 win over the Chiefs, GM George Paton initiated the conversation to Wilson’s agent centered around the QB delaying his 2025 guarantee. The third-year Broncos GM said Wilson would be benched for the season’s final nine games if he did not delay the $37MM guarantee for 2025, Russini reports. That number, which shifts from an injury guarantee to a full guarantee on Day 5 of the 2024 league year, is behind the Broncos’ decision to bench Wilson now. This did not amount to a full-on ultimatum, according to Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio, who notes team brass went through Wilson’s agent rather than bringing the QB into a meeting and demanding he adjust his deal or lose his starting job.

The Broncos’ ultimatum, reiterated days after Paton’s initial request, prompted Wilson’s agent to contact the NFLPA, CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson reports. Paton is said to have noted Wilson’s benching would be financially motivated, rather than for skill or performance. Reviewing the matter, the NFLPA wrote a letter to the Broncos and indicated it had consulted with the NFL management council, per Anderson, who offers that the team then sent Wilson’s camp a letter conveying the QB’s refusal to change his contract’s guarantee structure would be respected. The letter, however, also indicated Payton would now dictate if Wilson would be benched. The Broncos never previously informed the 35-year-old passer when he would be shelved, however, according to Russini.

Ultimately, the Broncos’ talks with Wilson’s camp about delaying the 2025 guarantee were not amicable and were not in accordance with the CBA, per Anderson. Though, the team does not share the viewpoint the talks were not CBA-compliant. But this relationship — one that veered from disastrous to adequate on the field from 2022-23 — looks to have been deteriorating over the past two months. Wilson has likely thrown his last pass as a Bronco, with Stidham — given a two-year, $10MM deal in March — in place to start the final two games.

The contract component will lead to this trade being viewed as one of the worst in NFL history. Wilson’s 26-TD, eight-INT bounce-back effort notwithstanding, NFL.com’s James Palmer notes people in Denver’s building viewed this benching as a football-related call — with the obvious financial undercurrent — for the 2023 season’s remainder.

Payton has said the offense needs to improve, and Palmer adds the new Broncos HC believes too many elements are present in the team’s current attack. Prior to the Wilson-guided rally against the Patriots, the Broncos’ offense struggled during an ugly effort. Payton has since said he does not view the up-tempo attack Wilson thrived in as sustainable over the course of a game. Pro Football Focus rates the Broncos’ offensive line as seventh overall, but Palmer adds only Justin Fields has been pressured more than Wilson. Broncos staffers also believe the pocket has been cleaner than the sack-prone QB’s pattern would depict. Wilson ranks seventh in passer rating but 21st in QBR.

While this adds up to Payton believing the fit between his concepts and Wilson’s strengths — a long-rumored issue after the Broncos acquired the ex-Saints HC — is too clunky, the team (and potentially its GM) will pay the price in the form of the historic dead-money sum.

Paton said upon firing Nathaniel Hackett he believed Wilson was salvageable, and Payton said just before this season the potential Hall of Famer’s skills had not eroded despite his 2022 regression. Wilson partially proved both right, but the Broncos’ offensive performance was not justifying the trade cost or the $49MM-per-year extension. Following the report Wilson wanted Payton to replace Pete Carroll in Seattle, Payton being the one to bench the accomplished QB is rather ironic.

Stidham’s contract contains just $1MM guaranteed for 2024, but after his Raiders run brought one stunningly productive start (a 365-yard, three-TD outing against the 49ers) and one shaky showing (against the Chiefs), the Broncos will see what their backup can bring. Wilson has since tweeted, “Looking forward to what’s next.”

“As a head coach, you’ve got to make some tough decisions and they won’t always be right,” Payton said. “They just won’t. You go with your gut and your instincts. We need a spark. We need something right now. We’ll handle the long term when we get there.”

Broncos To Bench Russell Wilson

December 27th, 2023 at 9:54pm CST by Sam Robinson

With a Week 16 loss to the Patriots effectively closing the door on the Broncos’ playoff hopes, the Russell Wilson watch has begun in Denver. As Sean Payton was not with the team when it acquired the longtime Seahawks star last year, the 2024 offseason has been viewed as a key point on the Broncos’ timeline.

It could also soon be a key chapter in NFL transaction history. Sitting at 7-8, the Broncos will bench Wilson. Payton informed the team Jarrett Stidham will start in Week 17, ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter reports. After the Broncos followed up a five-game win streak with a 1-3 stretch, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport reported the team was considering this move — one aimed at ensuring Wilson stays healthy before a pivotal offseason physical.

While Wilson has played much better this season, he has not justified the Broncos’ trade cost. The team sent an eight-asset package to Seattle, which included two first-round picks and two second-rounders. That decision came just after Aaron Rodgers — a multiyear Broncos target — agreed to a Packers extension. More importantly, the extension the Broncos gave Wilson just before last season creates a complex situation for the improved team.

The Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $245MM extension last summer; that deal came with $124MM fully guaranteed. The team had Wilson on a Seahawks-constructed contract ($35MM per year) through 2024, but it wanted to beat this year’s extension surge, leading to the $49MM-AAV re-up. Wilson waiving his no-trade clause for Denver always pointed to a new deal in 2022, but that turned out to be the wrong play. Even considering this year’s improvement, Wilson has not moved the needle for a Broncos team that has not found an upper-crust replacement for Peyton Manning since his 2016 retirement. Stidham will be the Broncos’ 14th starting QB post-Manning.

The Broncos can protect themselves against a $37MM guarantee (Wilson’s 2025 base salary) vesting in 2024, but the team cutting Wilson would create a staggering dead-money total. Even if the Broncos release Wilson with a post-June 1 designation — which would assuredly be the move if they are indeed cutting the cord — they would take on $35MM in dead money next year, according to OverTheCap. That would approach a record in itself, but this move would also bring a $49.6MM dead-money blow for 2025. Considering Matt Ryan‘s $40.5MM dead-money total from 2022 remains the single-player record, the Broncos would be sailing into uncharted waters — a two-offseason dead-cap total of $84.6MM associated with Wilson’s contract — if they cut their top quarterback next year.

On Day 5 of the 2024 league year, that $37MM guarantee vests if Wilson remains on the Broncos’ roster. That number is guaranteed for injury only until that March date, when it shifts to a full guarantee. But $68MM in bonus prorations from 2024-28 are also part of this equation, which stands to lead to the dead-money bloodbath.

Wilson’s contract containing a year-out guarantee, which is common among today’s high-profile deals, will force the Broncos’ hand early. If Wilson’s 2025 base salary locks in come March, the Broncos would still be tagged with $86.6MM in dead money (the $37MM base plus the $49.6MM in prorated bonuses from 2025-28) if they cut the decorated QB in 2025 rather than 2024. If Payton has deemed this a substandard fit, it behooves the Broncos to absorb this unprecedented financial blow early. Offset language does exist in Wilson’s deal, which would provide some relief once the 12th-year veteran lands elsewhere, OverTheCap’s Jason Fitzgerald adds.

This scenario is eerily similar to the one the Raiders encountered with Derek Carr. Once again, Stidham is the player who would move into the starting lineup in the event of a protection-based benching. Deciding early to bail on the Carr extension that included a February 2023 guarantee vesting date, the Raiders parked Carr on the bench — though, he left the team to avoid becoming a distraction — ahead of Week 17 last season.

Stidham started the Raiders’ final two games last season, creating a QB2 market. The Broncos gave the ex-Patriots draftee a two-year, $10MM deal to back up Wilson, beating out a Raiders offer. Unlike Carr, Wilson will not leave his team. He will dress as Denver’s QB2 against the Chargers, NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero tweets.

Wilson ranks seventh in passer rating, throwing 26 touchdown passes — after he tossed just 16 last season — compared to just eight interceptions. But the Broncos have not exactly deployed an explosive offense. It ranks 16th in points scored, though that is up from 32nd last year, and 16th in DVOA. Wilson’s relative bounce-back effort notwithstanding, the team remains limited through the air. Payton has restrained Wilson to a degree, and the Broncos have largely relied on short passes or deep shots to Courtland Sutton during their rebound from a 1-5 start. The 35-year-old passer ranks 21st in QBR, and new regimes are more willing to take on dead money associated with players brought in under previous staffs.

Technically, this is not a new regime. GM George Paton remains, but it is widely assumed Payton is calling the shots in Denver. Paton, who was in place for the Wilson extension and Nathaniel Hackett‘s one-and-done, has been linked to being on thin ice. A move to bench Wilson to protect against an injury affecting his contract status may well precede Paton exiting in 2024. The coach Paton traded for this offseason has not meshed especially well with Wilson, whose skillset differs from Drew Brees‘.

For Wilson, this obviously represents new territory. Although the two-time Super Bowl starter submitted a shockingly mediocre season under Hackett, the Broncos did not bench him last season. The nine-time Pro Bowler moving closer to his Seahawks form under Payton may keep the Hall of Fame in play — though, this Denver tenure does inject an interesting chapter — but this benching points to him being available in 2024. Considering this is not a tradeable contract, Wilson is moving toward becoming a free agent for the first time.

This imminent separation will put the Broncos in the market for a new quarterback soon. The team’s recovery from its 1-5 start will make that more difficult, as its draft slot has dropped to 14th. Should the Broncos follow through on their now-expected Wilson release in 2024, it will be interesting to see if a team would be willing to provide another starting opportunity for the ex-Seattle iron man. Wilson is the only player in NFL history with over 40,000 passing yards and 5,000 rushing yards. After being hesitant to run much under Hackett, Wilson has regularly helped the 2023 Broncos by scrambling (341 rushing yards).

While it is clear Wilson is past his prime, he has played a key role in the Broncos’ surprising playoff push — one that Stidham now controls. ESPN’s FPI gives the Broncos just a 5.6% chance to qualify. Against those long odds, the team will soon began a look toward the future.

AFC West Notes: Broncos, Ekeler, Raiders

March 29th, 2023 at 11:33am CST by Sam Robinson

Jarrett Stidham will replace Brett Rypien as Russell Wilson‘s Broncos backup, agreeing to a two-year, $10MM deal. While Stidham has fewer career starts than Rypien, his late-season Raiders cameo — particularly a 365-yard, three-touchdown performance against the 49ers’ No. 1-ranked defense — generated a market for the former Patriots fourth-round pick. Stidham chose the Broncos over the Raiders because of Las Vegas’ Jimmy Garoppolo signing and potential to also add a quarterback in the first round, per NBC Sports’ Peter King. From the Broncos’ perspective, Sean Payton views Stidham as an upward-trending option behind Wilson.

“There were a handful of No. 2s that either I have worked with, or we felt comfortable with,” Payton said, via the Denver Gazette’s Chris Tomasson. “In this case, I think he’s a No. 2 whose arrow is moving in a direction where we feel like he can become an NFL starter in our league. The evaluation was pretty crystal clear for all of us. I think he’s someone that’s going to be great in the room. He’s smart. Quietly, that was an important signing for us.”

Payton’s words do not point to a quarterback competition, but this addition does provide an option in case Wilson’s 2022 stumble was more indicative of a steep decline than being trapped in a dysfunctional offense. Here is the latest from the AFC West:

Wilson ran into a few injury problems during his shockingly mediocre first season in Denver. Knee trouble can be added to the Broncos quarterback’s list of ailments. Wilson underwent arthroscopic knee surgery shortly after last season ended, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets. The 12th-year passer is expected to be ready for Payton’s first round of Broncos OTAs. This issue nagged Wilson for a few seasons, per Rapoport. Last year, the knee trouble accompanied hamstring, shoulder and lat issues, along with a late-season concussion. Wilson, who did not miss an NFL start until his 11th season, missed two games last year.
Dre’Mont Jones signed for slightly more per year than Zach Allen, committing to the Seahawks on a three-year, $51MM deal just after the ex-Cardinal agreed to a three-year, $45.75MM Broncos pact. But Jones ended up receiving less guaranteed money ($23MM) than Allen ($32.5MM). The Broncos viewed Jones’ initial asking price as too high, Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com notes, pointing to Jones — a player the team had long wanted to retain — preferring a change of scenery or reducing his demand as the market shifted. The Browns also pursued Jones but landed Dalvin Tomlinson shortly after the ex-Bronco’s Seattle pledge.
Austin Ekeler explained his trade request recently, correctly indicating his contract is out of step with the value he provides the Chargers. But GMs do not see a market forming for the former UDFA, Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post notes. Ekeler has outperformed most of his peers on their respective second contracts, but several teams took advantage of this year’s buyer’s market at the position. Many lesser backs filled roster holes. While Ekeler is still just 27 and could provide versatility for another team, the Bolts may not land too much for him. His four-year, $24.5MM contract runs through season’s end.
Robert Spillane signed a two-year, $7MM Raiders contract, coming over from the Steelers. That ended up being more than Denzel Perryman received to leave Las Vegas for Houston, and Spillane said (via The Athletic’s Vic Tafur) Raiders coaches want him to wear the green communication dot. This would point to the Raiders eyeing a big role for Spillane, a run-stuffer who logged a career-high 59% defensive snap rate in 2022.
The Raiders were planning to move Dylan Parham from guard to center, Tafur adds, but the team’s decision to retain starting snapper Andre James will lead to Parham staying at left guard (Twitter link). A 2022 third-round pick, Parham started all 17 Raiders games as a rookie. McDaniels said the Memphis alum will still work at center, pointing to this being the team’s backup plan in case James goes down.
Jerry Tillery‘s Raiders deal is a two-year, $6.8MM accord that includes $5.5MM in total guarantees, Aaron Wilson of KPRC2 tweets. The ex-Chargers first-round D-tackle is due a guaranteed $1.5MM roster bonus in 2024, though his 2024 base salary ($1.7MM) does not become fully guaranteed until next March.

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