J.J. McCarthy

Broncos Moving Toward Russell Wilson Decision; Team Eyeing J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix?

February 13th, 2024 at 9:56pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Steelers became the first team to go through with post-Super Bowl cuts, moving on from former starters Mitchell Trubisky and Chukwuma Okorafor. A much bigger domino is likely to fall in Denver.

Although the Broncos’ path to upgrade on Russell Wilson is complicated, they still are likely to separate from the pricey passer they benched before Week 17. The team and Wilson had gone through a messy behind-the-scenes chapter pertaining to the decorated QB’s guarantee vesting date, but pushback on that decision being strictly contract-related ensued. The Broncos benched Wilson for Jarrett Stidham, and while the latter is almost definitely not the team’s long-term answer, the Payton-Wilson partnership appears in its final days.

Payton confirmed during an appearance on Up & Adams a decision on Wilson should emerge sooner rather than later (video link). The second-year Broncos HC said the team began its draft meetings Monday. When asked if he was looking to “fall in love” with a QB this offseason, Payton responded, “Yeah,” continuing to point to the Broncos absorbing the record-shattering dead money that would come with a Wilson release. Wilson holds a no-trade clause, though his five-year, $245MM deal is not viewed as tradeable on the surface.

It would cost the Broncos $85MM in dead money to release Wilson; that will be spread over two years due to the expected release set to be classified as a post-June 1 cut. That will slot the 2024 dead money at $35.4MM. That number checks in just $300K north of what the Buccaneers absorbed when Tom Brady retired. Of course, Tampa Bay is no longer restricted by any Brady money this year. The Broncos will be set to deal with $49.6MM in dead cap in 2025. That alone will smash the NFL record, one the Falcons still hold (at $40.5MM) after trading Matt Ryan to the Colts in 2022. A Wilson release will need to occur before March 17; his 2025 base salary ($37MM) becomes fully guaranteed on that day.

The Broncos hold the No. 12 overall pick and cannot enter true negotiations with an outside free agent until March 11. The Bucs and Vikings can respectively talk with Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins now. If one of those players becomes an option in Denver, such a signing would be costly. Considering the dead money coming via the likely Wilson release, the Broncos would be tying up plenty of cash at QB were they to go with a pricey free agent option. Of course, none of this year’s UFA passers beyond Cousins or Mayfield are expected to be especially expensive.

During an appearance on the Jim Rome Show (via 9News’ Mike Klis), Payton mentioned Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees as quick-processing QBs while notably leaving out Wilson when discussing that important skill in his offense. Known more for off-schedule brilliance than pocket mastery, Wilson had moments in Payton’s offense. He still finished in the top 10 in passer rating, while QBR slotted the ex-Seahawks star 21st. A market is likely to form for the 12-year veteran, though he will not be tied to anything close to the $49MM-per-year deal he signed in Denver. Wilson, 35, is unlikely to command anything near his $35MM-AAV Seahawks extension from 2019. The less Wilson makes, however, the more money the Broncos owe due to offset language.

New NFLPA executive director Lloyd Howell said (via the Washington Post’s Mark Maske) the Broncos mistreated Wilson when they attempted to move his vesting guarantee date from 2024 to 2025. Wilson’s camp said the team threatened a benching had the QB not gone along; Broncos brass denied the benching threat occurred. The NFLPA had urged Wilson to call the team’s bye-week bluff. Wilson did, and the Broncos stayed with him as their starter until they were realistically eliminated from playoff contention. Despite Denver’s limitations when it comes to securing an upgrade this offseason, a reconciliation here — despite Wilson indicating in January he wanted to stay with the team — should be considered highly unlikely.

At No. 12, the Broncos are not realistic candidates to end up with Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Jayden Daniels‘ rising stock may well ensure the Heisman winner goes off the board well before No. 12. The Broncos have been loosely connected to trading up for one of these passers, but the team — which has not made a first-round pick since 2021, thanks to the Wilson and Payton trades — views the cost as high enough a move into the top three is unlikely.

This would naturally tie the Broncos to this QB class’ second-tier options, and Denver7’s Troy Renck notes that is already happening. Denver is being connected to Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Oregon’s Bo Nix within scouting circles, per Renck. An ex-Jim Harbaugh pupil who is not yet 21, McCarthy joins Nix in not yet being a first-round lock. Given the supply-and-demand issues at quarterback, however, it would certainly not surprise to see both prospects be chosen on Day 1.

The Broncos selecting a QB at 12, as opposed to trading up, would be optimal given the draft capital the team surrendered for Wilson and then to obtain Payton’s rights. Excepting Jay Cutler‘s intermittent promise, the Broncos have not had much luck drafting QBs. The franchise’s top passers (John Elway, Peyton Manning, Jake Plummer, Craig Morton) all game via trade or free agency. But Denver will likely be connected to this year’s crop. The 2025 group, although it is still quite early on that front, is viewed as a lesser group. That could force some teams’ hands ahead of this draft.

Teams Likely To Move Up For QBs In 2024 Draft

February 10th, 2024 at 4:41pm CST by Ely Allen

For much of the 2023 football season, there was a clear 1-2 punch at the top of the list of 2024 draft eligible quarterbacks. It was also widely believed that this year’s crop would provide a good bit of depth throughout all stages of the draft. Both of those opinions appear to be up for debate now as depth issues and the projected 2025 class have teams thinking twice about how long they can wait for a young project passer this April.

The clarity at the top of the draft has been muddied a bit by the meteoric rise of LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has pushed North Carolina’s Drake Maye for the honor of QB2 behind Caleb Williams from USC. For some time, it was thought that the first-round considerations ended there, but all of the sudden, three other college passers have entered the conversation of Day 1 draft candidates.

Initially, quarterbacks like Michigan national champ J.J. McCarthy, national championship runner-up Michael Penix Jr. out of Washington, and Oregon’s Bo Nix were considered strong contributors to the depth of the draft’s quarterback class, slotting in as likely Day 2 picks. The depth behind them, though, began to slim down as fringe Day 2-3 passers saw the allure of returning to the NIL-potential of college ball and a chance to better their stock for the subsequent year’s draft.

This migration of 2024 depth pieces to the 2025 class has also done little to improve the projection of next year’s quarterback crop. It improves the depth of the 2025 quarterback class, but the group of passers in college next year remains bottom-heavy. Early class headliners like Texas passer Quinn Ewers, Georgia’s Carson Beck, and the prodigal son at Colorado, Shedeur Sanders, all give reasons to excite, but none have cemented themselves as first-rounders and, beyond them, the cupboard is quite bare for top talent.

A few veterans who once sought Day 1 acclaim have disappointed in recent years to the point where they have left for greener college pastures in an attempt to rejuvenate their potential draft status. Journeyman Dillon Gabriel, who has spent three years at UCF and two years at Oklahoma, will spend his final year of eligibility replacing Nix in Eugene. Once promising Duke passer Riley Leonard will try to replace Sam Hartman as the next leader at Notre Dame. A former freshman phenom at Miami (FL), Tyler Van Dyke will try to reestablish his passing prowess at Wisconsin. The Hurricanes will replace Van Dyke with former Washington State passer Cameron Ward, who backed off an earlier declaration for this year’s draft in order to announce his transfer to Coral Gables. After an injury-ruined 2023, Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels, one of a few talented passers who returned to their college home instead of transferring, is on the shortlist of Heisman Trophy contenders after impressing in 2022.

A number of sophomore passers will hope to have breakout years that help them rise like Daniels has this offseason. Penn State’s Drew Allar has impressed early with his efficiency, throwing for 29 touchdowns to just two interceptions in his first two years, but has a tendency to disappear from a gameplan far too easily. Conner Weigman has done little to inspire much confidence in College Station, but the former five-star recruit will hope to rebound for new head coach Mike Elko. Lastly, SMU redshirt sophomore Preston Stone will look to take the next step this year under Rhett Lashlee, who coached the earlier-mentioned Van Dyke to his best season in south Florida.

There are several other names that could be added to the previous few paragraphs, but the inability of any of these players, like Florida State’s transfer addition D.J. Uiagalelei, new Ohio State passer Will Howard, new Huskies quarterback Will Rogers, or any of the players above, to separate themselves above the rest of the batch is a testament to the lack of true top talent in next year’s class. The potential depth is real, but if none of these names can establish themselves as potential Day 1 or 2 picks, the 2025 class faces the same dangers as this year’s group as any passers with remaining eligibility will turn back to NIL money if the NFL has yet to warm up to them.

Because of this lack of excitement in the 2025 crop, there’s belief that teams this year may be a bit more eager to take a quarterback, according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel. This sentiment was echoed today by Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network, who stated his belief that four to five teams could be looking to move up for a passer leading up to the draft due to the lack of top talent in next year’s group. This hasn’t changed the status much of the established Day 1 picks for this year, though it could push likely mid-first-rounders like Daniels and Maye up closer to the draft position of Williams. The real effect has been attributed to the likely Day 2 picks, Penix, McCarthy, and Nix.

The increased interest in this year’s fringe group can already be seen on the big board of Trevor Sikkema at Pro Football Focus. Sikkema has ranked Penix and Nix at 20th and 22nd overall, respectively, on his 2024 NFL Draft big board, placing them securely in the first round, if his rankings at all reflect NFL interest. McCarthy trails a bit, ranked at 57th, while Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt provides the only decent depth at 75th overall.

Since it’s becoming more and more likely that the Bears will keep their No. 1 overall draft slot, it falls to the Commanders (No. 2) and Patriots (No. 3) to decide how valuable Maye and Daniels will be. Both teams are likely to be interested in adding a quarterback this offseason themselves, but if they decide to stick with young passers Sam Howell or Bailey Zappe or address their needs through free agency, they could potentially cash in on a team more desperate to add a top passing prospect.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler notes the Raiders (No. 13) and the Vikings (No. 11) as potential teams to move up for a quarterback. Las Vegas is set to head into 2024 with their two veterans, Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer, and second-year passer Aidan O’Connell, who took over as the starter for much of last year. Minnesota, on the other hand, is set to watch Kirk Cousins and Joshua Dobbs head to free agency, leaving only Nick Mullens and second-year quarterback Jaren Hall on the roster.

While those two teams could prove to be contenders for Maye or Daniels, the possibilities are far more numerous for new potential Day 1 picks like Penix and Nix. They could end up falling anywhere in the first round, getting selected in the late-teens or seeing teams trade up at the end of the first night to guarantee that fifth-year option granted to first-round picks. Regardless, teams are being forced to do their homework on future draft classes in order to determine their quarterback needs for this year. The result could see up to five or six passers hearing their names called on the night of April 25th.

Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy Declares For Draft

January 14th, 2024 at 12:30pm CST by Rory Parks

As expected, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has declared for the 2024 NFL draft. McCarthy’s announcement can be found here, courtesy of ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

McCarthy, who will turn 21 this week, was officially named the Wolverines’ starting quarterback before Week 3 of his sophomore season in 2022. That year, McCarthy led the team to a 12-1 record while completing 64.6% of his passes for 2,719 yards and 22 TDs against just five interceptions, but Michigan’s season ended with a narrow loss to TCU in the CFB Semifinals.

In the 2023 campaign, McCarthy posted similar passing numbers — his completion percentage actually increased to a terrific 72.3% — and he and head coach Jim Harbaugh finished the job, defeating Alabama in the Rose Bowl and then Washington in the CFP National Championship. Michigan ended the year with a perfect 15-0 record, and with nothing left to accomplish in the collegiate ranks, McCarthy had been expected to turn pro.

Despite the resume he put together at Ann Arbor, which includes First-Team All-Big Ten honors in 2023, McCarthy is not a perfect prospect. He has excellent arm strength and a high football IQ, but his high completion percentage belies the fact that he can struggle with ball placement, particularly on deep throws. He also has the tendency to telegraph passes, and his wiry frame is a cause for concern for some. He is unafraid to run, having carried the ball 134 times over the past two years, but his 3.8 YPC average suggests that his legs will not be a primary weapon at the next level.

Nonetheless, Harbaugh has called McCarthy the best quarterback Michigan has ever had, which is high praise considering the passers that the program has churned out over the years (Tom Brady and Harbaugh himself, for instance). So while McCarthy is not on the same level as quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, he still has a chance to hear his name called in the first round of the draft, though some early mock drafts peg him as more of a Day 2 option.

Recent reports have suggested that if Harbaugh were to become the Raiders’ head coach this offseason, he would want the club to draft McCarthy. The Raiders presently hold the 13th overall pick, which may be too high for McCarthy, but Las Vegas does not pick again until it is on the clock with the No. 44 selection. The club’s new GM and head coach, therefore, will have something of a complicated quarterback decision on their hands.

Chargers, Raiders “Pressing Hard” For Jim Harbaugh; Commanders, Bears Also Interested

January 7th, 2024 at 1:37pm CST by Rory Parks

1:37pm: Providing a further update to the Raiders connection in particular, Pauline reports Harbaugh would be interested in having quarterback J.J. McCarthy with him in Vegas in the event he took that job. The latter – whom Harbaugh recently termed the greatest QB in Michigan history – is one of several passers in contention to be selected in the first round of this year’s draft, although he is ranked below the likes of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels.

Entering Week 18, the Raiders were on track to hold the No. 11 pick in April’s draft. Plenty will change in that department over the course of the day’s action, but Vegas could be well positioned to add McCarthy or another QB outside the top options on the board. With Jimmy Garoppolo‘s Raiders tenure widely expected to come to an end shortly, the team will have a need for at least a depth addition under center this offseason regardless of who is installed as head coach.

11:33am: Recent reports have suggested that the Raiders and Chargers are the likeliest landing spots for Jim Harbaugh should Harbaugh choose to leave the University of Michigan and return to the professional ranks. Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda.com adds some more fuel to that fire.

Per Pauline, Las Vegas and Los Angeles are “pressing hard” to hire Harbaugh, and there are rumors that both clubs have made initial proposals to Harbaugh’s camp. While Pauline is unable to substantiate those rumors, he does say that rumors suggesting Harbaugh’s decision to hire agent Don Yee gives the Raiders an upper hand in these sweepstakes are true (Yee was the longtime agent for Tom Brady, who is likely to soon become a minority owner of the Raiders and who is a trusted voice for majority owner Mark Davis).

We heard at the end of December that Las Vegas interim head coach Antonio Pierce may stand a good chance of having the interim label removed and becoming the club’s full-time head HC. Subsequent reports, however, suggested that Davis may decide to take another “big swing” as he did with his hires of Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels, and that Davis wants his Sin City outfit to be led by a high-profile coach.

Harbaugh certainly qualifies as a high-profile big swing, as does Bill Belichick, who has also been connected to the Raiders’ post. Harbaugh, whose Wolverines will appear in tomorrow’s CFP National Championship game, may yet elect to remain in Ann Arbor, and he reportedly has multiple extension offers on the table from Michigan (Yee’s hiring, aside from what it might mean for Harbaugh’s NFL hopes, obviously would also assist him in his negotiations with his alma mater). The looming presence of the Wolverines, along with Pauline’s report — which conflicts with earlier reports pegging the Chargers as the frontrunners for Harbaugh’s services — make this race a very difficult one to handicap.

Pauline muddies the waters even further by noting that the Bears and Commanders have also shown signficiant interest in Harbaugh. Just two days ago, Albert Breer of SI.com reported that Harbaugh is an unlikely candidate for Washington, though Pauline points to the team’s five top-100 picks in the 2024 draft and signifciant amount of cap space (roughly $80MM) as factors that sources close to Harbaugh say could draw the former 49ers HC to the nation’s capital. And while Chicago’s recent stretch of quality play has led to the belief that its current head coach, Matt Eberflus, has done enough to keep his job for at least one more season, Pauline says that could change if the Bears believe they have a chance to nab Harbaugh.

Should Harbaugh land an NFL gig in 2024, Pauline names Greg Roman and Willie Taggart as potential key coaching hires. Roman worked under Harbaugh’s brother, John Harbaugh, with the Ravens from 2017-22, including a four-year stretch as offensive coordinator from 2019-22. Taggart is currently on Baltimore’s staff as the team’s running backs coach and has a close relationship with both Harbaughs.

Of course, Roman also worked as Jim Harbaugh’s associate head coach at Stanford from 2009-10 and then as his OC with the Niners from 2011-14.