Impact Rookies

Impact Rookies: Jacksonville Jaguars

June 29th, 2016 at 9:43am CST by Zachary Links

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ draft class:

Patience and an unlimited bank account by team ownership might just be the tickets to get the Jaguars into the playoff picture in 2016. If not, heads are certain to roll, both in the front office and on the field. The maturation of quarterback Blake Bortles, along with the emergence of receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, gives Jacksonville formidable aerial weapons. The addition of former Jets tailback Chris Ivory gives the team a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield, as the newcomer is expected to split time with T.J. Yeldon.

The defense received the bulk of the front office’s attention via the free agent market. Denver’s Malik Jackson was brought on board to join injured 2014 first-round talent Dante Fowler, drastically upgrading the team’s pass rush. Toss in free safety Tashaun Gipson leading a revamped secondary and you can see that coordinator Todd Wash had enough weapons on hand even before the cache of talent the team snatched during the draft.

Jacksonville failed to address their primary need – offensive line – spending six of their seven draft selections on defensive talent. Still, you can envision at least two future All-Pros (Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack) to hopefully emerge from this crop. The rest of the defensive selections were taken with one task in mind – attack the pocket and get to the quarterback.

First Round – Jalen Ramsey, DB (Florida State, No. 5 overall)

The Jags wasted little time running up to the podium with Ramsey’s name on the card handed to the commissioner. Many had figured Ramsey, the best athlete in the draft, would be taken by the Chargers at No. 3 to help ease the loss of Eric Weddle. Ramsey may have slipped past the Chargers and Cowboys due to some minor knee issues and, as it turns out, that injury did pop up during Jacksonville’s rookie camp.

Still, to find Ramsey on the board with the fifth pick was a blessing. The addition of Gipson via veteran free agency will see Ramsey remain a cornerback, at least at the start of his NFL career. He’s already listed as their starting right cornerback, leaving former starters Dwayne Gratz and Aaron Colvin as caddies for Ramsey and Davon House. Both former starters will also have to contend for a roster spot, as the team also inked former Giants first rounder, Prince Amukamara, to a one-year deal. Additionally, the team seems enamored with versatile Nick Marshall, a former college passer making the conversion to the secondary.

Second Round – Myles Jack, LB (UCLA, No. 36 overall)

If Jacksonville was fast to get to the podium with the Ramsey card, they were at warp speed when it came to Myles Jack. Medical reports are split on Jack as some say the injured star is 90% ready to contribute while others indicate that he could have a short-lived career due to his knee issues. Perhaps the Jags felt that Jack was just too good to pass up, even if it is for the short term.

If Jack’s knee is able to withstand the rigors of NFL life, he could be the team’s playmaker at strong-side linebacker. Recent off-field issues for current starter Dan Skuta put the veteran in a precarious situation, but even on his best day, he could not compare to Jack at his worst. Skuta ranked eighth on the team with 40 tackles in 2015 and his 1.5 sacks are easily replaced. Skuta’s roster spot could be in further peril, thanks to the drafting of Yannick Ngakoue and Tyrone Holmes (more on them in a bit). Outside of Telvin Smith, look for the linebacker unit to undergo a transformation this year, with middle linebacker Paul Posluszny possibly holding on to that spot one more year before Jack could be asked to shift inside in 2017.

2015 was supposed to be the season that Jack firmly took over the top rung on the 2016 linebacker draft board. A knee injury during practice prior to the Bruins’ third game on the 2015 schedule sidelined the versatile performer for the rest of the season. Then, to the surprise of the coaching staff, he became the first underclassman to toss his hat into the 2016 draft pool when he announced at mid-season that he would prefer to play pro ball in 2016.

In three 2015 appearances, he had one interception, three break-ups, and fifteen tackles. He was second on the team with 88 tackles as a full-time linebacker starter in 2014. He also scored three times as a ball carrier that year, a role that earned him Paul Hornung Award (nation’s most versatile player) finalist recognition as a freshman. That year, he delivered 75 tackles through eleven starts on defense and rushed for 120 yards and a score on just six carries in 2013.

Jack has good upper body muscle development and room on his frame to carry more bulk, if a team decides to keep him on the defensive line. With his quickness, range and change of direction agility, he is more than capable of playing as a weakside linebacker, but he has the raw power to handle multiple blockers at either the “Mike” or “Sam” positions. He has good arm and chest muscle thickness, along with exceptional leg drive when asked to tote the ball as a running back, good bubble and thick thighs and calves. As his frame continues to develop, he knows how to use his strength efficiently to compensate playing against the larger blockers.

Third Round – Yannick Ngakoue, DE/OLB (Maryland, No. 69 overall)
Sixth Round – Tyrone Holmes, OLB (Montana, No. 181 overall)

Perhaps to hedge their bet in case Jack or Dante Fowler continue to have injury issues, the team continued adding to their suspect pass rushing game. In Maryland’s Ngakoue, the hybrid defensive end will be asked to play linebacker for the Jags, but he’s also penciled in behind Fowler at right end. He’s the Terps’ single-season sack record-holder with 13.5 in 2015, breaking a record set by Mark Duda (1982) and Bruce Palmer (1978). Based on that total, he ranked second nationally in sacks/g (1.13), closing out his career tied for fourth in school history in sacks (21.5).

In order to have a successful 4-3 or 3-4 alignment, one of the outside ‘backers need to be big and physical. Often called the “Elephant,” made popular by the Packers, that athlete is usually relied upon to serve as a primary pass rusher. Depending on the scheme, the Elephant can be on either side of the defensive formation. Strength is crucial, as the Elephant will often be challenged by double-team action from the right tackle and tight end, or having to fend off the cat-quick left tackles to get into the backfield successfully from the edge. More often than not, you will see teams try to convert rush ends to this position.

Ngakoue is another possibility, if the rush end can improve his overall speed, but scouts feel that he was just another junior taking a risk entering the draft. There is no doubting his skills as a pass rusher, but he has never been one to grasp the playbook. A move to linebacker at the next level could be stalled by his limitations as an edge rusher.

The same might be said for FCS standout Tyrone Holmes, who lined up with his hand down for the Grizzlies. A small-town kid, he turned down scholarship offers from Pac-12 schools (most notably Washington State) to enroll at Montana. He showed flashes as a sophomore, posting four sacks before tallying 66 tackles and fourteen stops-for- loss as a junior. Named the FCS National Defensive Player of the Year, he amassed eighteen sacks, 24.0 stops behind the line of scrimmage and 87 tackles last season.

Holmes can simply explode off the ball and into the backfield. He has very good body control and hand usage to avoid blocks and work around them to put pressure on the pocket. He has developed an array of moves and can be effective with all of them. He is fluid with his above average redirect ability and has more than enough quickness to pressure the pocket regularly.

One area Holmes has made marked improvement in is flushing out the quarterback and pressuring the pocket. He is strong enough to play off blocks when working inside and can deliver a “knockout blow” on the quarterback when coming off the edge. He has sudden moves to close and his initial step will generally beat the slower blockers off the snap.

With all those hybrid additions, there are only so many roster spots to dole out. If Jack, Ngakoue and Holmes all make the team, if could come at the expense of others. If you toss in Colts castoff Bjoern Werner into the roster discussion, you can see why Skuta, Hayes Pullaerd, Chris Smith and Jared Odrick might want to have the Mayflower Moving Company on speed dial.

Fourth Round – Sheldon Day, DT (Notre Dame, No. 103 overall)

Defensive tackles Tyson Alualu and Sen’Derrick Marks both have starting experience, but unless they “amp up” their overall game, they could eventually be challenged by fourth round find, Notre Dame’s Sheldon Day. Day played on the edge last season, making a triumphant return from 2014 knee woes. He led the team in quarterback pressures (13) and his 15.5 stops-for-loss were the most by a Notre Dame player since Derek Landri in 2006 (no Irish player has had more than 15.5 TFLs since Brandon Hoyte in 2005, 16.5). Where he dominated was near the goal-line, ranking second in this draft class by making nine touchdown-saving tackles. He also showed excellent pass defense skills, as just 4-of- 18 passes targeted into his area were completed. As a pass rusher, six of his nine pressures came on the final play during those possessions.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service which has provided insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Tennessee Titans

June 28th, 2016 at 10:00am CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with Dave-Te Thomas’ insight on the Tennessee Titans’ draft class:

First Round – Jack Conklin, OT (Michigan State, No. 8 overall)

It was apparent after last season that the Titans needed to address their lack of depth on defense, but they also had to add speed on offense. Ultimately, Tennessee started the draft by placing a higher priority in protecting their franchise quarterback and opted to build a formidable front line that already featured two first rounders and four starters selected by the team since the 2013 draft phase.

The Titans watched Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil slide down the board, but he wasn’t the tackle that they wanted when they traded up from No. 15 to No. 8. When they owned the first overall pick in the draft, many draft experts expected that Tunsil was a shoe-in, but all along the Titans were eyeing either Conklin or Notre Dame standout Ronnie Stanley.

Being a Top Ten choice does not always spell instant success, at least where offensive tackles are concerned. Among the 179 offensive tackles to ever be drafted in the first round, four never even played in any NFL games and seven others never started any contests during their pro careers. Since the 1970 draft, five other first round offensive tackle selections never reached double-digit starting figures.

Still, Conklin’s future looks bright and his presence is doubly appreciated following Byron Bell‘s season-ending ankle injury. His injury leaves the door open for Conklin to immediately step in as the new starter at right tackle, joining 2013 first round right guard Chance Warmack, 2014 first round left tackle Taylor Lewan, 2015 third round left guard Jeremiah Poutasi, and 2013 fourth round center Brian Schwenke up front.

Second Round – Austin Johnson, DT (Penn State, No. 43 overall)

Dick LeBeau is placing more emphasis on the 3-4 game this season and second round pick Kevin Dodd is currently sidelined with a foot injury, which means that the team could experiment with Jurrell Casey playing on the edge and DaQuan Jones on the opposite side. That would leave Johnson to battle Al Woods for time in the middle of the front wall.

The former journalism major graduated from school early and was eligible to compete at the 2016 Senior Bowl, where he put on quite a performance throughout the week-long practices. Johnson ranked second among interior defensive linemen in the major college ranks and finished third overall on his team with 70 tackles. That was the most tackles for a Penn State defensive lineman since Jimmy Kennedy (87) in 2002. He also recorded 6.5 sacks among his fifteen stops behind the line of scrimmage in 2015.

With his thick-cut frame, Johnson can play either the zero-gap or line up as a traditional under-tackle when the team utilizes the 4-3 scheme. He’s proven last season that he can be very stout at the point of attack and you have to be impressed with his balance and coordination when attacking the rush lanes, along with his great leg drive and core strength to anchor vs. double teams.

Second Round – Derrick Henry, RB (Alabama, No. 45 overall)

DeMarco Murray is a ball-hungry veteran intent on proving that last season’s debacle in Philadelphia was a one-time thing. If Murray looks strong off the bat, it remains to be seen how playing time in the backfield will be divvied up. Murray only had 193 carries (3.6 avg) last season, but he had his best year when he carried the rock for 392 times for Dallas in 2014.

Henry is a one-time starter who needs room to operate and build his acceleration. He will have the benefit of seeing fellow Tide backfield mate, Jalston Fowler, serving as the team’s lead blocker out of the backfield, but he will still have to vie for “scraps” that Murray leaves on the table. Further complicating the touches available for Tennessee players is the fact that Bishop Sankey, David Cobb, Dexter McCluster, Antonio Andrews, and David Fluellen will all be fighting for the two available slots behind Murray on the depth chart, though Sankey could be traded. Only time will tell if Henry can be a successful runner in the NFL and the same goes for his opportunity level in 2016.

Third Round – Kevin Byard, FS (Middle Tennessee State, No. 64 overall)

Ever since LeBeau became a coordinator, he has surrounded himself with smart, instinctive safeties. Last year, the Titans made a great move by securing the services of former Bills strong safety Da’Norris Searcy. Now, in Byard, they believe they have a ball-hawk free safety to pair with to Searcy’s hard-hitting style. Byard has nineteen interceptions to show for those ball-hawking skills at MTSU, but despite his pedigree and fine performances in practice at the 2016 Senior Bowl, he was not invited to this year’s NFL Scouting Combine. The Titans realized what he can offer, as he not only set the school all-time theft mark, but also returned those interceptions for 377 yards and four touchdowns.

Byard’s arrival does not mean he will be the instant starter at free safety, which is where Arizona castoff Rashad Johnson resides. His versatility (he played every secondary position in college) will see him be called upon to play the slot corner spot in passing situations and he could also be utilized as a Cover-2 linebacker vs. the run. All that stands in his way for playing time is a challenge from veteran Marqueston Huff, along with Daimion Stafford and Lamarcus Brutus for the two safety spots on the second unit.

Fifth Round – Tajae Sharpe, WR (UMass, No. 140 overall)

To hear Marcus Mariota and the offensive coaches during mini-camp, you’d think that they’d hit the lottery with this fifth round find. Nagging injuries limited the UMass receiver to eleven games last year, but he still pulled in 111 balls, breaking the school season-record. He also holds the career marks with 271 receptions for 3,348 yards. His addition gives Mariota another big, physical possession-type receiver, one with very reliable hands and excellent route-running ability.

Sharpe’s arrival could take playing time away from 2015 second rounder Dorial Green-Beckham, who will now compete with aging veteran Harry Douglas for outside receiver chores. Kendall Wright should line up outside on the right side, and Sharpe expected to challenge Miami castoff Rishard Matthews for the slot receiver role. The team plans on keeping five receivers, putting Douglas and 2013 second round pick Justin Hunter on the bubble. Ben Roberts, Tre McBride, Reece Horn and Andrew Turzilli all appear to be “warm bodies” for training camp at this position.

Fifth Round – Sebastian Tretola, OG (Arkansas, No. 193 overall)

Bell’s loss also gives Tretotala a great opportunity for playing time. Bell was also projected to serve as the top reserve guard, but that role will likely fall to the former Razorback. What Tretola lacks in athleticism, he makes up for with his high level of aggression, especially in the running game. He should easily steal away playing time from fellow Titans reserve blockers, Josue Matias, Andy Gallik, Quinton Spain, and Nick Ritcher. That quartet holds one distinction: none of them were ever drafted. The Titans also signed Ben Jones away from the Texans, but he was mainly brought in to challenge Schwenke for the center spot.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Houston Texans

June 27th, 2016 at 10:09am CST by Zachary Links

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? Furthermore, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these youngsters, we enlisted the help of NFL Draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we kick off PFR’s Impact Rookie series with Dave-Te Thomas’ insight on the Houston Texans’ draft class:

First Round – Will Fuller, WR (Notre Dame, No. 21 overall)

Losing an aging Andre Johnson before the 2015 season put a lot of pressure on DeAndre Hopkins, as he was constantly being double teamed. Still, without the benefit of a quality “wing man” on the other side and even more problems at quarterback, Hopkins saw 31% of the team’s passes targeted to him, making 111 grabs that included 11 touchdowns. Johnson’s replacements were found wanting, as Nate Washington took in just 47-of- 95 targeted passes. Cecil Shorts, who recently agreed to a drastically reduced contract, caught just five balls for at least 20 yards among his 42 grabs. The addition of Fuller made Washington a roster casualty and forced Shorts to “shorten” his money to return in 2016. Fuller will not dazzle you with his slight frame, but he definitely disproved scouts who felt he was not fast with a blazing 4.32-second clocking in the 40-yard dash at the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine. He builds acceleration nicely and displays excellent balance and change of direction agility. The thing you see on film is that he has very good success on jump-ball battles (won 12-of- 14 last year), as he does a very nice job of adjusting under the ball and timing his leaps. Along with his body control, he has some of the best stop-and-start skills in this draft class.

Second Round – Nick Martin, C (Notre Dame C No. 50 overall)

Martin is a vast upgrade from the Texans’ previous snapper, Ben Jones, who is no longer with the team. He’s already formed a good bond with Brock Osweiler and should join the Colts’ first round pick, Ryan Kelly, as immediate starters at center for their respective teams. Martin’s arrival will see newly signed Jeff Allen slide into the right guard spot vacated by Brandon Brooks. Greg Mancz and Tony Bergstrom were hoping to compete for the pivot spot after Jones left, but both now vie for second unit duties.

With Chad Slade and Oday Oboushi the only bodies on the roster behind starting guards Jeff Allen and Xavier Su’a-Filo, Martin could also serve as a valuable sixth man on the O-Line, if Mancz or Bergstrom somehow manage to win the center job. Both of those veterans also have experience playing guard and when you couple that with Martin’s arrival, it seems like Slade and Oboushi may not survive training camp, especially if the team opts to keep just ten offensive linemen.

Third Round – Braxton Miller, WR (Ohio State, No. 85 overall)

Shorts, Keith Mumphery, and Jalen Strong will not only have to deal with the arrival of Fuller, one or more players from that trio could be playing elsewhere next season, thanks to third round pick Braxton Miller. The former Ohio State quarterback should take over slot receiver/H-Back duties and adds another element to the offensive game plan with his throwing arm and running ability to perform in the wildcat package.

Fourth Round – Tyler Ervin, RB (San Jose State, No 119 overall)

The Texans did not draft Ervin to be their featured back as he obviously lacks the size to carry the ball 25-30 times per game. However, the speedy ball carrier did run for 1,601 yards while displaying his 4.42 speed in 2015. He should be the ideal third-down back, as he also caught 45 balls last season. Look for the San Jose State product to spell Lamar Miller during passing situations and he could replace the duo of Shorts and Mumphery as the team’s new punt returner, as those two combined for just 7.3-yards per return.

If the team opts to keep five running backs, Miller and Ervin will nail down two spots. Fullback Jay Prosch will be challenged by Soma Vainuku, while Kenny Hilliard’s ability to play both spots could give him an advantage over Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes for the final spot in the backfield.

Fifth Round – K.J. Dillon, SS/FS (West Virginia, No. 159 overall)

One man’s misfortune (Karl Joseph’s injury) was another’s fortune in 2015, as Dillon took on a bigger role once his All-American teammate was lost for the 2015 season. Dillon’s ability to play both safety spots, along with starting experience as a weakside linebacker makes him the secondary’s wild card entering camp. Dillon’s physical hitting style will be a better fit at strong safety, where 2013 second rounder D.J. Swearinger never panned out.

Currently, ahead of Dillon on the depth chart are Eddie Pleasant and Kurtis Drummond, but both were castoffs signed as free agents by the Texans. If Drummond manages to emerge as the strong safety, Dillon can mount a challenge for the free safety position that is occupied by Andre Hal, a 2014 seventh-round pick. Hal led the team with four interceptions and 14 pass break-ups last year, but lacks the coverage speed to handle deep routes. Dillon could displace Hal, who would then slide into a more comfortable role in the sub packages.

If the team keeps five safeties, Dillon, Drummond and Hal should fill three spots, with Pleasant, Demps, Jets castoff Antonio Allen and 2014 seventh-rounder Lonnie Ballentine battling it out for the final two places. If Allen proves he’s recovered from a torn Achilles tendon that forced him to miss the 2015 campaign, a stating tandem of Dillon and Allen at the could be in the team’s future.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.