Entering Week 13 competing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Jaguars tumbled to a disappointing 9-8 finish. This led to Doug Pederson canning most of his defensive staff. As for Pederson and the offensive staff, this figures to be an important season — especially now that the Jags extended Trevor Lawrence at a record-tying rate.
Lawrence is now tied to a five-year, $275MM deal, but the contract comes after the former No. 1 overall pick did not build on his late-season 2022 success. Injuries played a central role in Lawrence’s underwhelming third season, but the heat is on Pederson and OC-turned-play-caller Press Taylor.
After Pederson served as the Jags’ primary play-caller in 2022, he handed the reins to Taylor before the ’23 season. A former Pederson assistant in Philadelphia, Taylor — the younger brother of Bengals HC Zac Taylor — had not been a primary play-caller previously. Pederson has not said if he will reclaim those duties this season, but Shad Khan made an interesting comment about the situation. Referencing a New York Times piece alluding to the third-year HC’s job security, the owner said, “If I were in that situation, I’d want my hands on the wheel.”
“Yeah, I have an opinion,” Khan said, via the Associated Press’ Mark Long, on the Jags’ play-calling situation. “But I don’t want to tell people ‘We need to do it’ because then things don’t work out, they look at me and say, ‘We did it because you wanted it.‘ … Doug, he’s empowered. I’m going to let him decide.”
Khan did not indicate this is a do-or-die season for Pederson, though his hypothetical comment regarding the situation could certainly be perceived as the owner having a preference for the head coach taking back the reins. GM Trent Baalke also was believed to be taking a close look at the state of the offense during the season’s final weeks.
The Jags only dropped from 10th to 13th in scoring (DVOA placed Jacksonville’s offense 18th) between 2022 and 2023, but after a strong finish covered for a sluggish start in Pederson’s Jacksonville debut, his 2023 follow-up’s fortunes nosedived in the second half. Lawrence finished in the same QBR position (17th) as 2022, but after the team gave the fourth-year passer a $55MM-per-year deal, it stands to reason it expects a jump from the former elite prospect.
If Taylor lands another shot as the team’s play-caller, it will certainly come with high stakes for the 36-year-old assistant. Pederson showed enough confidence in Taylor he wanted to promote him to OC in Philly following the 2020 season. Eagles ownership disagreed, leading to Pederson’s dismissal two years after Super Bowl LII.
When addressing the events of last season as a whole, Khan called it an “organizational failure.” The Jags, who also made franchise-tagged defender Josh Allen the NFL’s second-highest-paid edge rusher, have one 10-win season during Khan’s 12-year ownership tenure.
“Injuries are a part of the game. We had some of those injuries, but I think it’s organizational failure that it happened,” Khan said. “All of these players I talked to, it’s like how could this happen? What happened?
“For me, it’s really a cause for self-reflection and then something good to come out of it because we just can’t have that this year.”
Pederson’s first season gave Khan some cover for his disastrous Urban Meyer decision, one he backtracked on in less than a year. Although Khan fired Meyer and 2012 hire Mike Mularkey after one season, the Jags owner gave Doug Marrone four-plus seasons and Gus Bradley nearly four years despite the latter’s tenure producing a historically bad .226 win percentage. But the Jags have been one of the NFL’s worst franchises under Khan’s ownership.
The Pederson-Lawrence partnership represents a gateway to potential contender status, and were Khan to fire the former Super Bowl-winning HC, it would tie the franchise quarterback — the only one left standing with his original team from 2021’s five-QB first round — to a third offensive scheme in five seasons. This is a rather deep AFC, however, and it will be challenging for the Jaguars to infiltrate the conference’s top tier. The team will hope a Lawrence leap can elevate the roster, one that added two new wide receivers (Gabe Davis, first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr.) and veteran linemen in Arik Armstead and Mitch Morse, this offseason.
