Demaryius Thomas

Extra Points: D. Thomas, Mariota, Boyd

The Broncos are set to wield the franchise tag, if necessary, to keep Demaryius Thomas, according to NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. Rapoport adds that there have been no talks between the team and Thomas’ camp for some time. The tag would cost Denver about $13MM and would limit the team’s options when it comes to tight end Julius Thomas. Here’s tonight’s look around the NFL…

  • Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, a candidate to be picked first overall in April, has signed with Rep 1 Sports, and will be represented by agents Ryan Tollner, Bruce Tollner, and Chase Callahan, reports Liz Mullen of SportsBusiness Journal (via Twitter). The agency also represented QB Blake Bortles in last year’s draft.
  • Tajh Boyd, a former Jets sixth-round pick, had a good workout for the Lions today, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). Nonetheless, Birkett says no deal is imminent between the team and the young quarterback.
  • By the time the first round of this year’s NFL draft ends, a running back or two might be among the selections, which clashes with recent history. Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Georgia’s Todd Gurley could lead the draft’s running back rebirth, writes Jim Corbett of USA Today Sports.
  • Oklahoma’s co-defensive coordinator and defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery is heading to to the Packers, according to Jason Kersey of The Oklahoman. There’s no sign of any defensive coaches leaving the Packers, so it seems that Montgomery will likely be installed in a new defensive position, according to Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette (via Twitter). His position will effectively be defense quality control, according to Alex Marvez of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
  • At OverTheCap.com, Bryce Johnston has introduced a new concept called expected contract value to attempt to more accurately assess the true value of a player’s contract.

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

AFC Links: Manning, Ngata, Hughes, Incognito

Even with a coaching change and big decisions to make on Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas, the Broncos’ offseason will more or less be about whether or not Peyton Manning returns in 2015.

If Tony Dungy is correct, Manning will be back next year, according to the Associated Press on IndyStar.com.

“I was with him last week and he didn’t give me any indication one way or another, but he certainly didn’t say anything to me that led me to believe he wouldn’t be playing,” said Dungy. “My gut feeling is that he’ll be back unless he really has a health-related problem. He enjoys the team. He enjoys his teammates. I think he really wants to come back and play well and not let that be the last game of his career.”

Here are some more links from around the AFC:

  • The Ravens have asked star defensive tackle Haloti Ngata to restructure his contract in the past, but for the first time they have leverage to make such a request this offseason, writes Mike Preston of the Baltimore Sun. Ngata is owed $8.5MM in base salary and will count for $16MM against the cap. Considering the Ravens need to free up money for free agency, the declining Ngata could have to look for a new team if he refuses to restructure his deal, and coming off a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy, the team holds all the cards.
  • The top priority for the Bills this winter should be figuring out a way to bring back Jerry Hughes, who has developed into one of the league’s most productive pass rushers, writes Jason Fitzgerald in his preview of Buffalo’s offseason at OverTheCap.com.
  • The Bills will host Richie Incognito for an official visit and physical on Saturday, reports James Walker of ESPN (via Twitter). Incognito has not played since being suspended as part of the bulling investigation with the Dolphins. The team needs help at guard, with Erik Pears and Kraig Urbik unlikely to return to the team, writes Mike Rodak of ESPN (via Twitter). The meeting may be merely a formality, as the team is expected to sign Incognito should he pass his physical, according to Tim Graham of the Buffalo News (via Twitter).
  • Cornerback Curtis Brown, a former Steelers third-round pick, will have a workout with the Jets on Tuesday, according to Rand Getlin of Yahoo! Sports (via Twitter).
  • Malcolm Butler may be a Super Bowl hero, but the undrafted Patriots cornerback isn’t going to get hung up on one play. He is already concerned with continuing to improve and become a fixture in the NFL, writes Tom Curran of CSNNE.com“I’m going to probably enjoy this moment, I’ll never forget it,” said Butler. “Probably for a couple more days or whatever, however it dies down. Have a little time to relax and then get back to work and just try to prove my point that this one play doesn’t [define] me. I don’t want to be known as a great player for one play, so I’ve got more to prove. So, I’ll have a little relax time and get back to work.”

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

La Canfora On Use Of The Franchise Tag

Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports notes how the use of the franchise tag is trending downward. In 2013, only six players received either franchise or transition tags. This offseason, despite the hard work of Luke Adams to profile the candidates for the tag on each team, that number could drop to four.

La Canfora notes that his guess of four does not include the possibility of a team franchising a kicker or punter in lieu of another viable candidate.

While the Lions, Giants, Packers, and Dolphins each have a viable candidate, each team is unlikely to tag that player. Those four are expected to try to avoid the tag in the effort to retain their stars.

Although the number could drop to four, anything less than that would be a huge surprise. As far as La Canfora sees it, there are four sure things in terms of the franchise tag (all four of which Luke did pin down in his rundown of franchise tag candidates, for the record).

  • Demaryius Thomas to the Broncos is an obvious choice, whether his quarterback in 2015 is Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler. The case in Denver has another wrinkle, with La Canfora writing that if the team could come to an agreement on a long-term deal with Thomas, then tight end Julius Thomas will become a candidate to be franchised instead, albeit not the sure thing Demaryius is.
  • Fellow superstar wide receiver Dez Bryant is another lock to be hit with the tag. The Cowboys and owner Jerry Jones could be afraid to commit long-term money to him, but would be happy to keep him on a year-to-year situation even at a high price. There was also some steam gaining for DeMarco Murray’s chances of being tagged, but Bryant is seen as the superior offensive weapon.
  • On the defensive side of the ball, an already capped-out Chiefs team will place the franchise tag on Justin HoustonHouston’s tag number is not set in stone, with the team likely to tag him as an outside linebacker, Houston and his agent will push for the slightly higher defense end number which comes with an additional $1.6MM based on La Canfora’s projections. Houston could be considered a defensive end because he is primarily a pass rusher in the Kansas City defense. Either way, La Canfora believes they will have to tag him regardless of the number, despite the cap gymnastics they might have to do to afford him.
  • Staying on defense, the Patriots will likely tag safety Devin McCourty as they continue to focus on signing Darrelle Revis to a long-term deal. After Revis, the team should be able to negotiate a deal to keep McCourty as well, and keep the top two players in a very good secondary together as head coach Bill Belichick looks for a fifth Super Bowl victory.

Decker Recruiting Demaryius Thomas For Jets

A year ago, Eric Decker departed the Broncos in free agency, signing a lucrative five-year deal with the Jets. Now, his old running mate in Denver is eligible for unrestricted free agency, and Decker is trying to sell Demaryius Thomas on the idea of joining him in New York, writes Brian Costello of the New York Post.

“I’ve been pushing for the entire year now,” Decker said of his recruitment efforts. “It’s going to be interesting to see what happens. I think it would be tough for Denver to let him go. So whether they franchise-tag him here in the next month or give him a long-term deal, he’s just one of those premier players in this league. If he happens to make it to free agency, I would love to sign him because playing alongside him for four years and especially the last two years made it a lot of fun and made it a lot easier. He’s just one of the great players in this league.”

As Decker himself observes, there’s a good chance that Thomas doesn’t even reach the open market, since he’s a strong candidate to receive the franchise tag in Denver. While several other key Broncos players are slated to become free agents, none are more talented and more productive than Thomas, particularly with Chris Harris having been locked up to a long-term extension earlier in the season.

There’s some uncertainty in Denver these days, with Peyton Manning still undecided on whether he wants to continue his career, and a new coaching staff in place, but it would be a huge surprise if the club allowed Thomas to reach free agency. If he does, the Jets – armed with plenty of cap space and intending to be “very active” this offseason – could be a suitor, though that would likely mean parting ways with Percy Harvin.

AFC Notes: Tucker, Gordon, D. Thomas

Ravens kicker Justin Tucker is eligible for restricted free agency for the first time this winter, but will be restricted rather than unrestricted, meaning a one-year deal is possible. Still, if it were up to him, Tucker wouldn’t mind signing a long-term deal to stay in Baltimore, writes Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun.

“I think when you take a step back and look at it from the big picture and think long-term, that would just be great to know what’s going to go on for the next several years as opposed to the next few months or next year,” Tucker said. “When you think about it from a general perspective, it feels and sounds great for me personally. I’ve really enjoyed my time in Baltimore and would to continue it. I think it’s just a matter of everybody getting something together and discussing it.”

Here are a few more Thursday updates from all over the AFC:

  • In an open letter published on The Cauldron, Browns wideout Josh Gordon addresses Charles Barkley, Stephen A. Smith, Cris Carter, and other media members and fans who have criticized him for his problems with substance abuse, explaining his side of the story. Gordon’s account provides an interesting perspective, and is a reminder that, at age 23, he shouldn’t be written off as an NFL player. Still, he has vowed in the past to make better decisions, so he’ll have to actually make good on those promises this time around.
  • Appearing on SiriusXM NFL Radio (audio link), Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas said he hadn’t talked to the team about a new contract since before the season started, and is letting his agent handle any discussions at this point. Thomas added that he plans to “go about his business” whether he returns to Denver or ultimately lands with another club.
  • Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis explained today on ESPN’s NFL Insiders that team owner Mike Brown sees defensive backs coach Vance Joseph as a rising star, which is why the club was unwilling to let Joseph take the Broncos‘ defensive coordinator job. Coley Harvey of ESPN.com has the details and quotes from Lewis, who said Joseph “could be sitting in my chair very quickly.”
  • Ndamukong Suh’s name should be atop the Colts‘ winter wish list as the team prepares to enter the offseason armed with a ton of cap room, writes Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star. Meanwhile, Raiders defensive end Justin Tuck says Suh seems like a player that would fit in well in Oakland, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press details.

Poll: Best Potential 2015 Free Agent?

Six weeks from today, the NFL’s free agent period for 2015 will officially open. By that point, a number of the more notable names on our 2015 free agent list may be off the board, having reached new agreements with their current clubs, or perhaps receiving the franchise or transition tag.

That certainly applies to the players at the very top of teams’ free agent boards for the coming offseason — it’s hard to imagine the Cowboys letting Dez Bryant reach the open market, or the Broncos allowing Demaryius Thomas to test the free agent waters. Still, for now, those players are eligible for unrestricted free agency, and there’s no indication that they’re on the verge of long-term extensions.

Even though players like Bryant and Thomas may not ultimately reach the open market, we can still examine how they’d stack up against the year’s other top free-agents-to-be. In PFR’s most recent free agent power rankings, Dallas Robinson listed those receivers third and fourth respectively, trailing a pair of formidable defenders, in Ndamukong Suh and Justin Houston — Suh is arguably the NFL’s best defensive tackle, while Houston may be the league’s top pass rusher not named J.J. Watt.

The same four players topped the first edition of our FA power rankings as well, and seem to make up the first tier of 2015’s free agent class. Putting aside the fact that they won’t all actually become available, which of these four players would you consider the best free-agent-to-be of 2015?

Obviously, a team stacked on defense may prefer one of the wideouts, while a club heavy on receiving talent would lean toward one of the defenders, but if we assume all else is equal, who do you like best going forward? Suh, Houston, Bryant, or Thomas? After submitting your vote, feel free to weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section below.

AFC Mailbags: Jags, McFadden, Chiefs, Jets

It’s Saturday, and that means ESPN.com’s NFL writers are opening their mailbags and answering questions from readers. Let’s start off the morning by checking out some notes from the AFC…

Broncos Likely To Franchise D. Thomas

The Broncos have some big decisions to make in the near future and Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link) has an idea of which way they’re leaning. Denver, he says, plans to use the franchise tag on Demaryius Thomas while letting Julius Thomas and Terrance Knighton hit the open market.

The Broncos, according to Cole, will not make much of an attempt to sign the tight end or Pot Roast during their exclusivity period. Once free agency gets underway, they’ll have a better idea of what it will take to keep both players, at which point GM John Elway & Co. will assess matters.

In Julius Thomas’ case, the big concern is that he only had five catches over the final seven games of the season and some in the organization believe that he did not play very hard while he was hampered by a sprained ankle. In total, the tight end brought in 43 catches for 489 receiving yards with 12 touchdowns. Those aren’t bad numbers, but the 26-year-old (27 in June) set the bar higher in 2013 when he hauled in 65 catches for 788 yards and 12 scores on his way to his first career Pro Bowl.

When it comes to Knighton, the Broncos are worried about his weight. The defensive tackle was tipping the scales by about 40 pounds over his usual weight for much of the 2014 season. With a few extra pounds on him, Knighton managed to record 30 tackles and 2.0 sacks on the year. For his part, Knighton has made no secret of his desire to remain in orange.

Last season, Thomas recorded 1,619 receiving yards off of 111 catches with 11 touchdowns.

Broncos Notes: Manning, Fox, Talib

In the wake of the Broncos 24-13 loss to the Colts tonight, questions regarding Peyton Manning‘s future began to surface. Manning himself was non-committal about returning in 2015, according to Burt Hubbuch of the New York Post (via Twitter). “I need to process this game, and we’ll meet tomorrow,” said Manning.

Here are some other rumors after the Broncos elimination:

  • Manning is set to make $19MM in 2015, and for that reason Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com believes he will be back next year (via Twitter). At the same time, he notes that his colleague Marc Sessler has thought Manning could retire after the season since September.
  • Manning’s full salary will be guaranteed on the last day of the league year in March, reports Joel Corry of the National Football Post (via Twitter). If he retires, Denver will have a $5MM in dead money on its 2015 cap.
  • The Broncos will save $16.5MM if they move on from Manning this offseason, according to Tom Pelissero of USA Today (via Twitter).
  • Money aside, Aaron Nagler of SI Now wonders if Manning would even want to start over again if head coach John Fox is fired and offensive coordinator Adam Gase finds employment elsewhere this offseason (via Twitter).
  • Despite those reports that Fox’s job was on the line today, the Broncos head coach was adamant about staying with the team, according to Around the NFL (via Twitter). “My intentions are to be a Denver Bronco,” said Fox.
  • Scott Bair of CSNBayArea.com notes that with the Broncos out of the playoffs, Gase and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio are now available to sign as head coaches elsewhere right away (via Twitter). The Raiders have been interested in Del Rio, and Gase has drawn interest from a number of teams.
  • As he did upon the Cowboys’ loss to the Packers earlier, Field Yates of ESPN looks into some important offseason decisions facing the Broncos (ESPN Insider Link). Among the most important free agents, Yates writes the team needs to bring back Demaryius Thomas and Terrance Knighton, make a decision on Julius Thomas, and add to their offensive line and linebacking crews.
  • Corry also notes that the team could move on from oft-injured cornerback Aqib Talib, who has a cap number of $7MM in 2015 (via Twitter). That will leave $4MM in dead money on Denver’s cap sheet.
  • Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com put together a list of the Broncos free agents heading into this offseason and their current average salaries, and also addresses some salary cap and contract issues that the team will face with or without their quarterback..

Sunday Roundup: Suh, Tannehill, Manning

With Ndamukong Suh‘s free agency rapidly approaching, there is a general belief that he could be playing his last games in a Lions uniform. Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, though, believes that Detroit would be foolish to let Suh leave. Birkett writes that although J.J. Watt is clearly the best defensive player in the game, Suh is not far behind him, and the Lions should pay him accordingly.

Birkett goes on to note that the Lions want to pay Suh like a dominant defensive tackle, whereas Suh’s camp believes Suh’s talent transcends positional descriptions and is therefore worthy of its own spot on the pay scale. The Lions chose to table extension discussions earlier this year, and although there was a wide gap between what Suh was demanding and what Detroit was offering at that time, Birkett believes it is not a gap that cannot be bridged (which is especially true given what Suh means to this talented Lions defense). If the Lions have to pony up a deal resembling Watt’s six-year, $100MM extension, Birkett believes the Lions should pull the trigger. Even if Detroit has to slap a $26.9MM franchise tag on Suh to preserve its exclusive negotiating rights until July 2015, he believes the team should not hesitate to do so.

With a salary cap that many project to increase by leaps and bounds in the near future, Birkett tweets that there will be room for mega-deals for both Suh and Calvin Johnson, and he adds (via Twitter) that the Lions not only should re-sign Suh, but that they will re-sign him. For what it’s worth, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that he is not convinced Suh will leave in free agency. He adds that the Lions are “very much in the mix.”

Now let’s look at a few more notes from around the league:

  • Citing an AFC source, Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald tweets that the Dolphins have no choice but to pick up Ryan Tannehill‘s fifth-year option for about $15MM. Former NFL agent Joel Corry adds (via Twitter) that there is very little risk in exercising that option, as it does not become fully guaranteed until the first day of the 2016 league year.
  • Adam Caplan of ESPN.com (subscription required) provides a list of the top 10 front office executives most likely to be promoted to general manager, and current Eagles VP of Player Personnel Tom Gamble is at the top of the list.
  • Citing ESPN’s draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr., Adam Teicher of ESPN.com writes that the Chiefs should draft at least three wide receivers in the 2015 draft. Given that the team has several receivers near or at the end of their careers and a few unproven younger players on the roster, it is difficult to argue with Kiper’s assessment, though Teicher himself believes Kansas City should have addressed that void this year.
  • In a mailbag piece, Teicher writes that the Chiefs also need to address the offensive line, but unlike the wide receiver position, Kansas City has some internal options to improve the O-line.
  • We learned earlier today that the Broncos, even after the recent extension handed out to Chris Harris, will have enough cap room to retain both Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas.
  • Darren Wolfson of KSTP.com tweets that Vikings running back Adrian Peterson is expected to file a federal lawsuit against the NFL tomorrow.