The Colts have had “organizational discussions” about coach Chuck Pagano’s future, according to ESPN’s Chris Mortensen (via PFT). The Colts are currently 3-4 and it’s not shocking to hear that the team is pondering a coaching change given the expectation level at the start of the season.

Things could quickly get worse for Indianapolis as they head into next Monday’s contest against the Panthers and a showdown with the Broncos. The Colts could very well wind up at 3-6 during their bye week, and that would be a logical time to part ways with Pagano if they plan to do it mid-season.

One has to wonder if GM Ryan Grigson might follow Pagano out the door. On Sunday, Colts owner Jim Irsay and Grigson reportedly engaged in a “heated conversation” after the team’s loss to the Saints. Jason Cole of Bleacher Report recently noted that Grigson could be on the hot seat alongside Pagano and that he has taken criticism for his player acquisitions, including the trade for Trent Richardson and the selection of first-round pick Bjoern Werner. There have also been grumbling within the organization about Grigson’s meddling in the team’s day-to-day operations.

Colts head coach Chuck Pagano has informed people around him that he “has doubts” he will return as Indianapolis’ head coach next year, according to NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport (via Twitter). Of course, this does not come as much of a surprise; there were reports several weeks ago that 2015 would be Pagano’s last season with the Colts, and those reports came on the heels of an offseason full of articles describing a rift between Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson.

Owner Jim Irsay quickly tried to downplay news of a strained relationship between his head coach and his general manager, but given the team’s ugly start to the campaign, it is looking more and more as though both parties will be heading in different directions at season’s end (if not sooner). Earlier this week, Pagano made comments regarding his team’s offensive line that some interpreted as a shot at Andrew Luck and some believed was a thinly-veiled barb directed at Grigson. While Rapoport tweeted this morning that Pagano’s comments were simply meant to convey the difficulties the team has had with injuries to the unit, any negative statement from either the head coach or the front office at this point only serves to intensify the reported turmoil.

However, there are still 14 games to play, and Pagano and Grigson will both put forth their best efforts to get the Colts to the playoffs. As Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports writes, Pagano, who has a reputation as a defensive guru, has been even more hands-on with the defense than usual. But if the team’s early struggles persist, La Canfora writes that “any shuffling of the coaching staff would have to come from above Pagano. Sources said Pagano does not have the autonomy to hire or fire staff if he sees fit.”

The only question, then, is who will take over the reins as the Colts head coach in 2016, and where Pagano himself will end up. As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes, Irsay could clean house, like he did when he hired Pagano in 2012, or he could retain Grigson and hire a new coach like he did in 2002, which would effectively “neuter” Grigson. The direction Irsay takes will have a direct impact on the number and caliber of coaching candidates available to him.

Pagano, meanwhile, has indicated that he plans to retire whenever his tenure with the Colts ends. Even if Indianapolis continues to struggle in 2015, Pagano would remain a viable defensive coordinator or positional coach candidate. At the moment, however, he is not thinking about his life after Indy, even if the rest of the football world is.

6:35pm: Following the Colts loss to the Bills this afternoon, owner Jim Irsay denied reports of a rift between Pagano and Grigson.

“That can’t be farther [from] the truth,” Irsay said (via Mike Wells of ESPN.com). “Ryan and Chuck work hard together. They have a great relationship. I’ve seen coaches and general managers work together since I was 11 years old. I know the dynamic that needs to be there for them to work together. They have a great relationship.”

Irsay was also adamant that Pagano has a voice in regard to personnel decisions.

“That report is completely false,” he said. “I can guarantee you that — completely false. There is not one shred to truth to it at all. Honestly, these guys have a great relationship.”

However, Pagano was less defensive when he was asked if Pagano could be coaching for his job.

“Whenever these guys are in coaching – players and everything — everyone has to win,” said Irsay. “That’s a given. I don’t look at it as he’s coaching for his job or anything like that. I really don’t see the dynamic being anything different than any other year in the past to be honest with you. I don’t see it that way at all.”

12:43pm: It has been known for some time that there is a rift between Colts head coach Chuck Pagano and certain members of the team’s front office, most notably GM Ryan Grigson. As ESPN’s Dianna Marie Russini tweeted today, there is so much pressure on Pagano that he is essentially a lame duck coach, unless he takes his team to the Super Bowl. Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports echoes Russini’s sentiments, writing that it is a foregone conclusion that Pagano will leave Indianapolis next year.

Per La Canfora, Pagano was insulted by the one-year extension that owner Jim Irsay offered after last season, which included a salary virtually identical to what the coach is making in 2015. Irsay, in turn, was insulted by Pagano’s dismissive response to the offer.

But the situation was worsening long before that particular exchange. Pagano has had no say in the team’s personnel decisions, either at the player or coaching level. For instance, Grigson installed Pep Hamilton as the Colts’ offensive coordinator when Pagano had been pushing Rob Chudzinski for the job. As La Canfora writes, “Given [the] differences of opinion on staff matters, personnel issues, a growing inter-personal strain and the minimal attempt made to extend Pagano, it’s created a culture where any coach would feel as if his future is elsewhere.”

Even if Pagano were to win the Super Bowl this season–and the Colts are a legitimate championship contender–La Canfora believes he will still end up elsewhere in 2016. It’s not as if the differences between coach and brass will magically evaporate, and if Pagano brings the Lombardi to Indianapolis, his leverage will be at an all-time high. Indeed, considering the success he’s enjoyed in his first head coaching stint, that leverage is pretty high already, and according to Jay Glazer of FOX Sports, Colts players are wondering how Pagano can possibly be coaching for his job this year (via Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk).

Much like the aftermath of the Jim Harbaugh-49ers relationship, there will be no shortage of opportunities for Pagano in 2016, and there will likely be no shortage of viable candidates interested in the Colts’ head coaching job. But now, more than ever, it appears as though Pagano and Indianapolis are headed for a parting of the ways.