Caleb Williams

Bears Seeking “Historic Haul” For No. 1 Pick

February 10th, 2024 at 10:06pm CST by Ben Levine

Considering the presence of Justin Fields, there’s been some speculation that the Bears could look to move the first-overall pick to a quarterback-needy squad. While the organization isn’t completely shutting the door on a trade, it sounds like it would take a massive haul to pry the pick from Chicago.

According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, the Bears would require a “historic haul” if they were to consider moving the No. 1 pick. One source told Rapoport that the offer would need to be “crazy,” and the compensation would presumably need to be too good to refuse.

While it’s seeming increasingly likely that the Bears would select USC’s Caleb Williams first-overall and trade their former first-round QB, there was some merit to the opposite route. As Rapoport notes, many within the organization support Fields, and the Bears have been especially pleased with the QB’s development over the past year (one source described Fields’ makeup as “rare”).

Further, the Bears certainly aren’t strangers to trading the top-overall pick. They did so last year in a trade with the Panthers that netted them this year’s first-overall selection. The Bears could theoretically keep adding to their collection of future draft picks, and those rookie salaries would be especially useful as the team navigates a potential Fields extension.

Of course, it’s that contract that will likely play a role in Chicago favoring a rookie QB. Assuming the organization picks up Fields’ fifth-year option, they’d still have their young QB on an affordable salary through the 2025 season. Then, Fields could command one of the most lucrative contracts in the NFL, a deal that might not be palatable for a squad that doesn’t seem all that close to contention.

Further, the Bears aren’t in desperate need of high draft picks following last year’s trade. They’re already armed with both the No. 1 pick and the No. 9 pick in this year’s draft, and they would surely add some draft compensation if they decide to move on from Fields (although the QB isn’t expected to fetch a first-round pick).

General manager Ryan Poles was asked about his tough decision last month. The executive was naturally noncommittal regarding any specific direction, although he did go out of his way to praise Fields.

“We are going to turn every stone to make sure that we are going to make a sound decision for our organization,” Poles said (via Rapoport). “I did think Justin got better. I think he can lead this team. But at the same time, there is a unique situation.”

So what would a historic haul look like? The first-overall pick has been dealt 13 times since 1967, and the last two trades (Bears/Panthers in 2023 that saw Bryce Young go to Carolina and Titans/Rams in 2016 that saw Jared Goff go to Los Angeles) involved at least two first-round picks and two second-round picks in compensation. If a potential suitor doesn’t have any additional first-round selections besides their own, they’d be allowed to trade up to four first-round picks during the actual draft (their current selection plus three future picks).

Latest On Bears’ Quarterback Decision

February 7th, 2024 at 10:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Bears would fetch far more by trading the No. 1 overall pick than by trading Justin Fields. Though, other advantages — the prospect value of Caleb Williams and having at least three more years of a rookie contract to build around — still look to be pointing the Bears in the direction of starting over.

While headlines did surface in the pro-Fields direction, they have largely been blunted by the other QB route Chicago can take. Views around the NFL still lend toward Fields being on the move. The consensus at the Senior Bowl centered on the Bears trading Fields, according to the Boston Sports Journal’s Mike Giardi.

After trading the No. 1 pick last year — for a bounty that included D.J. Moore and what turned out to be this year’s top choice — the Bears should not be expected, barring an extraordinary development, to move out of the top slot again, the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs notes. This would almost definitely mean drafting Williams at No. 1.

Kliff Kingsbury‘s Commanders OC hire has invited speculation about a reunion between the recent USC quarterbacks coach and his prized pupil, though the parties only worked together for several months. This would only be relevant if the Bears show a willingness to pass on Williams and take the next-best quarterback at 2. This would be an obvious risk given Williams’ prospect profile.

The concept of the Bears trading down and still grabbing a quarterback represents a farfetched scenario, Biggs adds, though if the team place near-equal grades on the top two prospects, it is conceivable it would entertain a trade-down maneuver. Still, Biggs classifies the prospect of Chicago moving down as “remote.” The team that passed on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson for Mitch Trubisky will naturally face pressure to nail its upcoming QB decision and find the franchise-level option that has eluded the organization since at least Jim McMahon.

Moving down and being comfortable enough with Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels would be a fascinating call by the Bears, who would then have assets from a Fields trade and from moving down one spot on the board. Then again, Ryan Poles did not draft Fields. Passing on the likes of Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud and then punting on the Williams draft slot would invite scrutiny on Poles, despite his shrewd move to pick up assets from the Panthers. How the Commanders grade the top QB prospects will naturally determine their interest level in moving up to 1. Williams, per The Athletic’s Kevin Fishbain, should still be expected to go first overall — as he has for months.

Fields’ marginal improvement, which led to a lukewarm Poles postseason endorsement (after the GM built his 2023 offseason around Fields developing), and the Commanders’ Kingsbury hire may be tertiary matters regarding the upcoming draft. The Bears’ access to Williams remains the lead story. Fields has shown generational gifts as a runner but has not developed into a passer that would, in the eyes of most, make it a genuine debate between a path with him or Williams as Chicago’s QB1. Fields’ penchant for bailing on plays early frustrated some with the Bears, Giardi adds. He finished this season 23rd in QBR.

After Fields did not move the Bears into playoff contention during his rookie contract, the Bears — or, in all likelihood, another team — must decide on the 2021 first-rounder’s fifth-year option by May. As Fields is set to become more expensive soon, the Bears would have the luxury of keeping Williams on a rookie deal through at least 2026. Williams can be tied to his rookie pact through 2028 via his own fifth-year option.

A December breakdown pegged Fields’ trade value modestly, indicating the Bears would be likely to receive proposals headlined by a Day 2 pick. It would be interesting to see if the Raiders showed interest in the three-year vet, given Fields’ up-and-down tenure alongside Luke Getsy. But Las Vegas is a team in need at the position; that need has since brought the Daniels-Antonio Pierce connection back to the surface. While the Vikings and Broncos also carry needs and reside in similar draft territory (Nos. 11 and 12), Fields would not seem a fit for either Sean Payton or Kevin O’Connell‘s offenses. Now that the Falcons have hired Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson as OC, Fields’ Atlanta fit may not be optimal. Then again, teams holding picks outside the top three may need to get creative — especially those that do not land Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield.

Arthur Smith revamped his offense for Marcus Mariota in 2022, and although the Steelers have Kenny Pickett tentatively installed back atop their depth chart, how Pittsburgh goes about adding competition will be worth monitoring. A Fields trade would not seemingly be competition-focused but rather a move aimed at landing a surefire starter.

Vikings, Broncos On Radar To Trade Up For First-Round QB?

February 5th, 2024 at 10:11pm CST by Sam Robinson

This year’s draft could begin with three quarterbacks, and the teams currently holding the top choices have been steadily linked to taking a first-round passer. Teams in need of signal-callers who do not carry friendly draft real estate will, of course, be monitoring the buzz circulating around the Bears, Commanders and Patriots’ draft blueprints.

Two clubs who appear to be among those watching top QB prospects look to be those positioned just outside the top 10. Holding the Nos. 11 and 12 overall picks, the Vikings and Broncos are believed to be interested in drafting a quarterback high. While it will take considerable draft capital to climb into the top three, neither of these two are in good shape at the position. Minnesota, however, may still have the inside track on Kirk Cousins, who has expressed his fondness for his Twin Cities situation on a number of occasions.

Some around the league are keeping an eye on the Vikings’ interest in moving up for a passer, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler offers, noting the team did extensive work on the QB front last year. The Vikes were the team most closely tied to showing Trey Lance interest — before the Cowboys completed a trade for the former 49ers No. 3 overall pick — and they did not come to an agreement on another extension with Cousins.

Guaranteed money into the deal’s third year provided a sticking point, and the Vikings merely restructured Cousins’ contract. The latter transaction has put Minnesota in a time crunch, and the team could face the prospect of losing its starting QB — who has mentioned testing free agency — and being hit with a $28.5MM dead-money bill brought on by void years. If the Vikings do not re-sign Cousins by the start of the 2024 league year (March 13), that $28.5MM accelerates onto their 2024 cap sheet. Not quite the Tom Brady void years-driven cap charge the Buccaneers just faced ($35.1MM), but that is a high dead-cap number devoted to one player.

Cousins, 35, will undoubtedly factor in a potential Vikings desire to trade up for a quarterback into his latest free agency decision. Cousins is the longest-tenured Vikings QB1 since Tommy Kramer, narrowly edging Daunte Culpepper as the third-longest-tenured QB1 in team history. Like Culpepper in 2005, Cousins is coming off a major injury. The Vikings and other teams will be factoring Cousins’ Achilles tear into prospective offers.

The Broncos are almost definitely moving on from Russell Wilson, preparing to enter dead-money infamy in the process. The forthcoming dead-cap hit will cost the Broncos $84.6MM, which will be spread over two offseasons due to the expected post-June 1 designation. This stands to limit the Broncos’ interest in pursuing a pricey veteran — should any starter-caliber arms be available by the time the legal tampering period begins March 11 — and would naturally make Sean Payton‘s team more interested in a draft investment. The Wilson-fronted five-game win streak midway through this season, however, moved the Broncos down to the No. 12 slot. That will complicate a move into high-end QB real estate.

A rumor at the East-West Shrine Game involved Payton being interested in the Broncos moving up to draft Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels, Sportskeeda’s Tony Pauline writes. Of course, the cost of doing business here would be steep — and the team would need a willing seller. The prospect of Denver trading up may already be drowning in cold water, too, with Pauline adding the team should not be considered likely to move in this direction because of the draft capital — and/or established players — that would need to be included.

The Broncos gave up their first-round picks in 2022 and ’23 in the Wilson trade, and while they obtained a 2023 first-rounder from the Dolphins in the Bradley Chubb swap, it was subsequently thrown in to acquire Payton’s rights last year. This stands to be the Broncos’ first chance to use a Round 1 pick since they nabbed Patrick Surtain ninth overall in 2021. Surtain has become one of the NFL’s top young corners, and GM George Paton — who is still with the team despite being the point man behind the Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett calls — said Surtain is viewed as a cornerstone piece. Denver’s actions at last year’s trade deadline, which featured at least two first-rounders to even warrant a Surtain discussion, back that up. Pauline adds the Broncos do not want to part with Surtain and would only do so as a last resort in an effort to trade up for a QB.

Wilson’s 2023 rebound notwithstanding, the Broncos have obviously struggled to fill this spot since Peyton Manning‘s 2016 retirement. They were in the Cousins mix in 2018 but bowed out — as the Vikings emerged in pole position — en route to Case Keenum. The Broncos would seemingly have another shot at Cousins now, though QB demand would still make the veteran starter costly — even after the Achilles tear. As of early February, the Vikings are projected to hold more than $24MM in cap space; the Broncos are nearly $24MM over the projected salary ceiling.

Most around the NFL view the Broncos reconciling with Wilson as unlikely, Fowler adds. If Wilson were to remain on Denver’s roster past the fifth day of the 2024 league year, his 2025 base salary ($37MM) locks in. That would balloon Denver’s 2025 dead money for a Wilson release past $85MM. Hence, the team’s controversial maneuvering in an attempt to move the date on which Wilson’s injury guarantee vests.

Although Wilson was fond of Payton prior to the parties’ partnership, Fowler adds Payton let it be known behind the scenes he was not big on the ex-Seahawks star. Wilson’s penchant for creating plays out of structure ran counter to how Payton prefers his offense to run, being part of the reason — along with the injury guarantee — the Broncos benched him for Jarrett Stidham in Week 17. Fowler mentions Minnesota as a destination Wilson would likely pursue, given Kevin O’Connell‘s presence, in the event Cousins leaves after six years. O’Connell worked alongside ex-Seahawks OC Shane Waldron under Sean McVay. The Vikings also roster Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.

If/once Wilson departs Denver, his next team will not need to pay him nearly what the Broncos and Seahawks have. Wilson’s 2023 rebound still probably places him as a mid-tier starter, but Fowler adds his next team could build around him more effectively due to the offset language in the Broncos’ five-year, $245MM extension. Wilson signing at a low rate would be punitive for the Broncos, as their two-year starter’s next deal helps determine how much dead money will be on tap.

Cousins and Wilson join Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill as experienced starter options set to hit the market. But Denver and Minnesota will need to weigh their chances of trading up in Round 1 against spending on a veteran. There will be plenty of moving parts at QB for certain teams this offseason, with the Bears’ upcoming Williams-or-Justin Fields decision a rather important domino as well.

USC’s Caleb Williams To Enter 2024 Draft

January 15th, 2024 at 9:20pm CST by Sam Robinson

While connected to potentially bypassing the 2024 draft if he found his potential destination unsatisfactory, Caleb Williams will make his expected move soon. The USC quarterback is entering the draft, ESPN.com’s Pete Thamel reports.

Williams has long been expected to declare, and he joins Drake Maye in doing so. The 2022 Heisman winner is favored to become the No. 1 pick, with the Bears firmly in play to move on from Justin Fields and draft the two-year USC star. That is not set in stone, however, and Fields’ status will play a major role in Williams’ NFL future.

Monday represents the deadline for players to make their draft declarations, and while Williams has made millions via the NIL component that has changed major college athletics, that pales in comparison to what he would make over the course of a fully guaranteed No. 1 overall contract. Bryce Young is tied to a $37.96MM fully guaranteed deal; the No. 1 pick in 2024 will slide in a bit higher.

The Bears have a fascinating decision ahead, and Williams will drive the seminal call. The former Oklahoma recruit has been viewed as a top-tier prospect for an extended stretch, with his ceiling as a passer separating him from Fields, who has shown elite abilities as a runner but has been inconsistent as a thrower through three seasons. The Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Panthers last year, allowing Carolina to move up for Young. Williams brings a higher prospect pedigree than Young or C.J. Stroud, giving the Bears more to consider this year. After making the Carolina trade before free agency last year, GM Ryan Poles looks set to be more deliberate this time around.

Transferring from Oklahoma to follow Lincoln Riley to Los Angeles, Williams won the Heisman as a sophomore after throwing for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns while limiting his interceptions to only five. This past season, Williams kept his interception total at five but failed to match his other Heisman numbers with 3,633 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, albeit in two fewer games.

The 6-foot-1 QB has drawn early Patrick Mahomes comparisons, and while that is a lofty standard, Williams will enter the NFL with a better accuracy profile compared to the Chiefs megastar. Williams completed 68.4% of his passes as a junior and averaged 9.4 yards per attempt, marks north of his Heisman-season totals. He also operated in a larger spotlight compared to any QB who has entered the draft over the past two years. Like Trevor Lawrence during his junior season, Williams entered his final college campaign as the runaway favorite to be the following year’s No. 1 pick.

Chicago passing on Williams at 1 would surprise. Fields showed progress as a passer in Year 3, but development and being the reason for passing on a No. 1 overall pick for a second straight year are different matters. Poles also did not draft Fields; predecessor Ryan Pace did. The Bears must decide on Fields’ fifth-year option by May. If the Bears trade him, they would do so before that point, giving Fields’ second NFL team that responsibility. Drafting Williams would also come with at least three years of rookie-deal salary, giving Chicago a chance to fortify its roster in other places. Picking up Fields’ option would start the clock on the Ohio State alum, whose rookie-deal salaries would stop in 2024.

The Fields case is not without considering for Chicago, either; it just comes with tremendous risk. Trading the top pick would fetch the Bears far more than trading Fields will, potentially requiring a Robert Griffin III-type haul for a team to move up — well, depending on where that team is currently slotted. But Poles and Co. would need to be convinced Fields will develop into a surefire franchise option for that route to be strongly considered.

Although some buzz about Fields still being the Bears’ future has emerged, more Williams-to-Chicago noise has come out. Either way, this will be one of the most interesting leadups to a draft in modern NFL history.

Justin Fields Making Bears’ Decision Difficult; Team Setting Higher Trade Price For 2024 No. 1 Pick?

January 2nd, 2024 at 10:01pm CST by Sam Robinson

Barring an unexpected development, Ryan Poles will have the opportunity to consider another trade involving a No. 1 overall pick. The second-year Bears GM is unlikely to be fired, per ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler and Courtney Cronin. But a similar decision awaits him once the season ends.

Poles’ 2023 choice equipped the Bears with a haul of draft choices, including a Panthers pick now guaranteed to check in at No. 1 overall, but the young GM has not seen Justin Fields submit an open-and-shut case to stay on for a fourth season. Recommitting to Fields would now require the Bears to trade a No. 1 overall pick for a second straight year. Considering Poles was not with the team when it traded up for Fields in 2021, the stakes attached to the GM’s next decision are even higher.

Since coming back from an early-season injury, Fields has impressed in spurts. The third-year QB is believed to have made the Bears’ decision more difficult, Fowler and Cronin note, but two anonymous GMs said (via the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora) Chicago should still be expected to draft Caleb Williams — who has not yet officially declared — first overall and trade Fields. A panel of NFL staffers said the same last month, indicating the Ohio State alum would be highly unlikely to fetch the Bears a first-round pick in a 2024 trade.

Fields’ recent spurt aside, his overall body of work would make passing on a prospect like Williams difficult. Chicago’s dual-threat passer is 8-19 as a starter and has struggled in fourth quarters this season. Per ESPN, Fields ranks last out of qualified passers with a 51.8% fourth-stanza completion rate while sitting 30th in QBR in final periods. Since 2021, Fields’ 16 fourth-quarter INTs lead the league. Fields’ run-game brilliance and superior work earlier in games (No. 4 in TD-INT ratio through games’ first three quarters this season) works in his favor, but thus far, more expect the Bears to start over rather than stick here.

If Fields can win what was previously described as an uphill battle and keep his job for 2024 — something that would require the Bears to pick up his fifth-year option by May — Poles will likely view this as a hotter ticket compared to the 2023 top pick. It cost the Panthers D.J. Moore, their Nos. 9 and 61 picks last year, their 2024 first and a 2025 second to move up for Young. Williams’ prospect status topping those of Young or C.J. Stroud points to the Bears setting a higher price, with ESPN.com adding several execs view the USC talent as being worth two future first-rounders and either a Day 2 pick or a veteran on a reasonable contract.

It cost the 49ers two future first-rounders and a third to climb nine spots for Trey Lance. The Eagles gave up a first-rounder, two seconds and two thirds for Jared Goff in 2016. Washington’s price to climb from No. 6 to No. 2 for Robert Griffin III was two future firsts and a second in 2012. It will, then, be worth debating if the Bears are better off continuing to build around Fields and the haul they could receive for the presumptive Williams draft slot or starting over with the 2022 Heisman winner (on rookie-deal money through at least 2026) and whatever they receive in a trade for Fields. Chicago’s incumbent QB would be worth a second- or third-rounder in a pre-draft swap, per Fowler.

The Bears giving up on Fields after three years would match the timeline Mitch Trubisky received. A three-and-done Fields stay would also show how the league has changed since the 2011 CBA reshaped rookie contracts. Rex Grossman was in Chicago for six years, though he did not finish out his tenure as the team’s starter. Despite leading the Bears to just one playoff berth, Jay Cutler stayed as the Bears’ QB1 for eight seasons. With Cutler checking in perhaps just south of the franchise-QB bar, Chicago has been in search of its next such piece since at least Jim McMahon, whose injury troubles shortened his Windy City stay.

These factors complicate Poles’ decision, but he is expected to be the one making it. Fowler and Cronin add Poles has cultivated a good relationship with new president Kevin Warren. A Sunday report indicated Matt Eberflus was more likely than not to stay on, but La Canfora notes the prospect of Warren — who arrived in Chicago after both Eberflus and Poles — firing the two-year HC and starting with a more offensively oriented leader (in the event Williams is drafted) should not be dismissed.

This would represent a tough ending for Eberflus, who has the Bears at 7-5 over their past 12 games. With complications surrounding their front office, coaching staff and quarterback, the upcoming offseason promises to be a seminal stretch for the Bears. Should they give Fields a fourth season or turn to Williams? Is Eberflus capable of becoming a long-term HC answer?

Commanders Could Be In On USC QB Caleb Williams

December 29th, 2023 at 8:50pm CST by Ely Allen

While several items concerning the 2024 NFL Draft are still up in the air, the fact that USC quarterback Caleb Williams is considered a top prospect seems to have been set in stone for a little over a year now. With plenty of speculation leading into the new calendar year, Dan Graziano of ESPN reports that “there’s some thought around the league that Washington is very interested in Caleb Williams.”

Now, Williams is a popular bet to be the first name called in the draft as the No. 1 overall selection, a pick that the Commanders (4-11) are not currently in the position to make. That pick is currently owned by the Bears, who are in possession of the Panthers’ (2-13) first round selection. Carolina does not have the league’s worst record wrapped up, though. The Cardinals (3-12) could lose out and take the top spot should Carolina win a game. If Carolina wins out and Arizona wins a game, the Commanders and Patriots (4-11) could lose out and create a logjam at 4-13.

In the case that all four teams end up with the same record, the first tiebreaker is based on strength of schedule, with the team possessing the weakest strength of schedule getting the highest draft pick. Currently, the Commanders hold the weakest strength of schedule of those four teams, but with remaining games against the 49ers and Cowboys (the strongest remaining schedule in the league), that could change. Still, Washington holds an outside shot at possessing the top draft selection naturally.

If that doesn’t pan out, though, the Commanders could still attempt to acquire the pick in a trade. We saw the Panthers give up a bundle in order to obtain the top draft pick just last year. That bundle included a top player (D.J. Moore), two first-round picks (2023 & 2024), and two second-round picks (2023 & 2025). A similar bundle would be necessary in order for Washington to move up, though trading another top-five pick could help sweeten the pot on its own. The Commanders traded away a couple of top defenders in Montez Sweat and Chase Young before the deadline, so they’ve stocked up a few assets that they could deploy if necessary.

The bigger question comes with the team’s current quarterback situation. It was initially thought that the picks acquired in the above-mentioned trades would be used to build around second-year passer Sam Howell, whom most tabbed as the team’s next franchise quarterback. A month and a half later, though, and Howell has now been benched in two straight contests in favor of veteran Jacoby Brissett.

It’s become the popular opinion that Washington will be pursuing an addition to their quarterbacks room in the offseason. Many have called to watch the final two weeks of the regular season as an indicator for Howell’s future. Well, with Brissett set to start in Week 17, we may be seeing the end of Howell’s opportunity in Washington.

Enter Williams. A native of Washington, D.C., Williams has nearly guaranteed that he will be the top passer off the board, if not the top player off the board. It seems like, given the available options, the Commanders could certainly be all in on Williams given the chance. If Washington is unable to obtain the top pick and Williams is selected before they have a chance to draft him, North Carolina quarterback, and Howell’s former college teammate, Drake Maye would likely be the next top quarterback available in the draft, creating an interesting scenario in its own right.

Bears Leaning Toward Drafting QB, Trading Justin Fields?

December 19th, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

A host of GMs said last week the Bears’ decision between signing up for another year of Justin Fields or trading their current starter and committing to a quarterback at No. 1 overall would not be especially difficult. No proclamations have emerged for Chicago yet, but signs are pointing toward the rebuilding team starting over at QB.

If the Panthers close out the season in the NFL’s basement to secure the Bears the No. 1 overall pick, ProFootballNetwork.com’s Adam Caplan indicates Chicago will not be expected to pass on Caleb Williams. Viewed by most as the top available quarterback in the 2024 prospect pool (despite not having declared yet), Williams will be the favorite to go first overall in April.

This report checks in as another checkmark in the “trade Fields, draft his replacement” column. Prior to Fields returning from his thumb injury and beginning what amounted to a seven-game audition, the Bears were believed to be leaning in this direction. Then again, an ensuing report pointed to the team still having enough belief in the Ryan Pace-era investment it would take an impressive prospect to convince GM Ryan Poles to bail on his current QB. Williams may end up being that, and Poles passing on a QB at No. 1 overall in two straight years is a bit difficult to envision.

Two NFL execs view Williams as a player who would have been chosen in front of Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud in this year’s draft, with one of those staffers (via SI.com’s Albert Breer) indicating only Trevor Lawrence has been a better QB prospect than the USC talent over the past three drafts. While the latest Lincoln Riley-developed QB prospect did not match his Heisman-winning sophomore year, he is still viewed as a top-tier prospect. For a Bears regime that did not draft Fields, it will be tempting to retool around a rookie with a higher ceiling.

The Bears would need to make a call on Fields’ fifth-year option by May, but if they are to trade the 2021 first-rounder, it will be another team’s responsibility to exercise the option. The Jets proceeded this way in 2021, trading Sam Darnold to the Panthers, who promptly picked up his fifth-year option. Williams coming to the Windy City would give the team three more years of cost certainty at the position. With the Bears still rebuilding under Poles, it would certainly make sense for the team to reboot to allow for additional roster bolstering around a rookie contract.

Fields has shown flashes of high-end talent, though much of the Ohio State alum’s appeal comes from his historic gifts in the run game. Fields made a run at Lamar Jackson‘s single-season QB rushing record last year but showed clear flaws as a passer. The Bears’ attempt to equip Fields with more help led to the D.J. Moore trade, which gave the Panthers this year’s top pick. QBR still ranks Fields in the bottom quartile, slotting him 23rd out of 29 qualified passers this season. The dual-threat QB has raised his completion percentage slightly from 2022 (to 61.4%), but it has come with a lower yards per attempt (6.7, which also ranks 23rd in the NFL).

Moving parts still exist here. Neither Poles nor HC Matt Eberflus are locks to return in 2024, though the former is a better bet to stay in place, with new president Kevin Warren wielding influence now. Williams is expected to declare soon, but that is not official. The Panthers also must close out the season in the top draft slot; the Patriots and Cardinals are now just one game back, at 3-11 apiece. It is also possible Drake Maye impresses during the pre-draft process — to the point he leapfrogs Williams — but the former Oklahoma recruit has resided in pole position for months.

Latest On Justin Fields, Bears’ HC/GM Plans

December 14th, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Upon returning from a dislocated thumb, Justin Fields faced a seven-game audition that would likely determine his post-2023 future in Chicago. Thus far, the 2021 first-round pick has impressed. The Bears have won two straight against division rivals, and Fields put together a solid game in the team’s upset win over the Lions in Week 14.

Before Fields began this final audition of sorts, reports pointed the Bears in different directions regarding their QB future. Multiple mid-November reports indicated the team was more likely to trade Fields and go with a top prospect in the 2024 draft. With the Panthers continuing to struggle and now two games behind the NFL’s second-worst record with four to play, the Bears are closer to having another opportunity to make their choice atop a draft. While Ryan Poles passed on that chance this year, trading the top pick to Carolina, it would represent a bigger risk move another No. 1 choice.

Although a subsequent report pegged the Bears as needing to be “blown away” by a QB prospect to move on from Fields, Yahoo.com’s Charles Robinson spoke with a number of GMs who suggest the Bears’ decision should not be that difficult. Reasons ranging from Caleb Williams‘ prospect profile to cost certainty to the risk of trading No. 1 overall picks in back-to-back years to Poles not being in Chicago when Fields was drafted pointed to the anonymous GMs expecting the team to trade its current quarterback and prepare for the future.

This scenario would remind of the Jets’ 2021 call, which now doubles as a warning to other teams. While some in the Jets’ building advocated for keeping Sam Darnold and passing on drafting Zach Wilson at No. 2 overall two years ago, the Jets centered their future around Wilson by trading Darnold to the Panthers for a three-pick package.

The key difference here being that Williams is a former Heisman winner who has resided as a top-tier prospect for multiple seasons; Wilson, conversely, rocketed toward the top of the ’21 draft board because he impressed against lower-level competition. The COVID-19-altered 2020 season, featuring independent BYU needing to schedule lesser competition, created this scenario. No such variables exist with Williams, though he could not match his dominant 2022 Heisman campaign this year.

Should the Bears follow that Jets plan, the anonymous execs told Robinson that the team should not be expected to fetch a first-round pick in a Fields trade. None of the seven trade proposals featured a first-rounder, though a few included a second. This partially hinges on Fields finishing this season strong. That would undoubtedly increase the run-oriented QB’s trade value while also making Poles’ decision more difficult.

It is still not a lock the Bears have Poles and Matt Eberflus in place to make these decisions. President Kevin Warren, whom the Bears hired in January, represents a wild card. Even if the Panthers provide the Bears with the No. 1 pick, the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora notes Warren will be expected to seriously consider changes to the coaching staff and front office. We heard this in September, but the Bears have performed better as of late. They are now only one game out of another mediocre NFC pursuit for the No. 7 seed, and La Canfora offers the caveat of a surprise playoff surge taking 2024 HC-GM changes off the table.

Warren is primarily running the Bears’ efforts to secure a new stadium, but the former Big Ten commissioner is expected to weigh in on football matters — like how the team should proceed with the No. 1 pick. Formerly a Lions, Vikings and Rams staffer, Warren is set to evaluate Poles and Eberflus in the offseason. The subject of wanting his own HC will likely come up, according to ProFootballNetwork.com’s Adam Caplan. How that potential motivation would affect Poles remains to be seen, but Eberflus probably joins Fields in needing to prove himself to close out this season.

This is not especially uncommon. New Commanders owner Josh Harris is expected to fire Ron Rivera, while the Broncos both changed HCs a year after hiring a new GM (going from Vic Fangio to Nathaniel Hackett) and then a year after having new ownership (Hackett to Sean Payton). The Panthers fired Rivera during David Tepper‘s second year in charge. The Bears do not have a new owner, but it is clear Warren will be a key decision-maker when it comes time to make a call on staffers. While the Bears are a long shot to extend this late-season recovery to the playoffs, the 2023 squad’s homestretch will be important through a long-term lens.

USC QB Caleb Williams Expected To Declare For Draft

November 29th, 2023 at 8:34pm CST by Ely Allen

USC junior quarterback Caleb Williams has been projected as the 2024 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick for over a year now. In August, he attempted to temper expectations a bit about his likely declaration following the college season, but that hasn’t stopped pundits from continuing to speculate. At this point, he is still expected to declare and end his collegiate career, but Williams told Ryan Kartje of the Los Angeles Times that he is still contemplating the decision.

There was some thought that Williams’ initial lack of commitment back in August was a concerted effort to avoid being drafted by a team he isn’t interested in joining. When a player like Williams is a near guarantee to be the first player selected, they naturally have the luxury of knowing who will have the No. 1 overall pick by the time the deadline to declare arrives on January 15. If the season ended today, that honor would belong to the Bears, who own the 1-10 Panthers’ first-round pick thanks to the trade that allowed Carolina to draft Bryce Young No. 1 overall in 2023.

This time around, if Williams is considering staying in college for 2024, it might be because he’s unhappy with how he’s leaving USC. Over his first two seasons at Oklahoma and USC, Williams only lost five total games combined. This past year in Los Angeles saw Williams and the Trojans match that total in the last six weeks, alone. After starting 6-0 and rising as high as 10th in the AP rankings, USC would go on to lose five of their next six games with their lone win being a last-second, one-point win over the then 3-5 Golden Bears. They only escaped Berkeley with a win when Cal failed to convert a two-point conversion on a touchdown allowed in the final minute of regulation.

The 7-5 season is disappointing in its own right following the lofty expectations of the prior year’s 11-3 team, but Williams himself also failed to reach the heights of last year’s Heisman-winning campaign. Williams won the prestigious award and a unanimous All-American selection after throwing for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns while limiting his interceptions to only five.

This year, Williams kept his interception total at five but failed to match his other Heisman numbers with 3,633 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, albeit in two fewer games. Even if he wouldn’t have matched those prior year numbers with two more chances, he seemed to be a bit more efficient this season, increasing his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passing efficiency rating.

Because of that, Williams’ status as the projected first pick overall hasn’t changed. Neither has the expectation that he will decide to forgo his remaining eligibility and declare for the draft. Still, Williams seems to be taking his time, calling this a “game-time decision.” I’m not sure this means we’ll see Williams perform in USC’s bowl game this postseason, but expect the 22-year-old to take things down to the wire in January before making an official decision.

Giants Not Ready To Give Up On QB Daniel Jones

November 15th, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Ely Allen

The Giants 2023 NFL season has seemingly gone off the rails. After snapping their four-game losing streak from earlier in the year, New York has started a new losing streak, dropping their last three contests. Their 2-8 record currently qualifies them for the second-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. With USC quarterback Caleb Williams and North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye likely to be locked in as the first two college passers taken in the draft, are the Giants going to pass up a top college arm in the top 2?

According to Ralph Vacchiano of FOX Sports, “it’s far from guaranteed that the Giants would actually” draft Williams or Maye to replace starting quarterback Daniel Jones. There are several factors that play into the team’s loyalty to the veteran passer, but essentially, they haven’t given up on hopes that he will be the long-term answer for New York at quarterback.

The first clear sign of this is the fact that, only four months ago, the Giants signed Jones to a four-year, $160MM contract extension. The team expressed their support for the 26-year-old at that point, and though things haven’t panned out thus far, they’re not ready to give up on him yet.

Jones earned that extension after showing tremendous improvement under the tutelage of new head coach Brian Daboll and new offensive coordinator Mike Kafka last year. The new coaching took some of Jones’ biggest weaknesses, namely turnovers, and turned them into a strength. After throwing 29 interceptions and fumbling the football 36 times in his first three seasons, Jones led the league in lowest percentage of pass attempts resulting in an interception after throwing just five picks and fumbled the ball a career-low six times in 2022. Beyond that, Jones teamed up with his backfield mate, running back Saquon Barkley, to lead the Giants to their first postseason berth since 2016.

This year, the results have been drastically different, but realistically, the coaches and front office aren’t viewing the numbers in a vacuum. Sure, the team has the league’s second-worst record and only won one game in which Jones started, and yes, Jones’ touchdown-interception ratio of 2-6 and four fumbles in six games seems to show a regression of his strongest traits from last year, but these statistics aren’t solely the result of Jones’ play. First, of his six starts, three of them were without Barkley by his side and four of them were without starting left tackle Andrew Thomas protecting him. Second, a porous offensive line has led to the veteran passer taking a battering.

“It’s almost an unfair evaluation,” an NFC scout told Vacchiano. “He was getting battered. He had no time to run an offense before the rush was in his face. He didn’t look good, I’m not excusing him, but he didn’t have much of a chance. And I think (the Giants) know that.”

The disastrous offensive line resulted in Jones taking a beating. Whether related to the constant pressure or not, Jones ended up suffering a neck injury that would hold him out for three games. His short-lived return to play ended with him tearing his ACL, taking him out for the remainder of the season. Injuries, both to himself and to his teammates, paired with poor offensive play around him led to a decline in Jones’ performance this year. The Giants understand that and will likely continue giving him a chance to show he’s a franchise quarterback.

That decision also proves to be a bit self-serving for Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen. Despite the duo leading the team to the playoffs in their first year at the helm, Vacchiano states that in today’s cutthroat NFL, a serious step backward might not be something to two staffers could afford. Making the move to draft and rely on a rookie quarterback very often can result in a step backward, and after the disappointment of this season, another year of regression has the potential to spell doom for Daboll and Schoen. That being said, Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report made it clear that, “barring something drastic,” both will return with Jones in 2024.

Still, the two aren’t ruling anything out. While proclaiming their faith in Jones, the Giants are still actively doing their homework on Williams and Maye. Schoen has reportedly already seen both college passers in person, and the personnel department will likely continue keeping a close eye on the two. Especially with the current unknown of Jones’ recovery time, quarterback may become a big offseason need for New York if Jones isn’t expected back in time for camp.

It’s an ugly situation and a difficult decision for the Giants to make. And, as of now, it’s not one they’ve decided on yet. They have reason and need to rely on Jones going forward, but it may become necessary at some point to bolster the position, just in case. They’re not ready to give up on Jones yet, but they need to be prepared to face that possibility should it arise.

Load More Posts