Questions continue to swirl regarding the fate of head coaches around the NFC South. In Atlanta’s case, Arthur Smith‘s job security has appeared to change on a number of occasions recently.

The third-year head coach was first thought to be on the hot seat in November, due in large part to the team’s offensive struggles. Multiple quarterback changes have taken place this year, and 2022 third-rounder Desmond Ridder has not managed to establish himself as a starting-caliber option. In spite of that, a report from last month pointed to Smith being retained for at least one more year.

The Falcons went 7-10 in each of his first two campaigns, and he is on the verge of posting an identical mark in 2023. Atlanta finishes the regular season schedule against New Orleans, the other team with a chance of surpassing the Buccaneers for top spot in the NFC South. Tampa Bay would be required to lose to Carolina for that to be possible, however, and the Falcons cannot claim a wild-card berth.

With Atlanta’s playoff drought likely to extend to seven years, owner Arthur Blank has declined to offer a public commitment for or against retaining Smith. The latter’s job status will likely be influenced by the way in which the Falcons finish the year, but some around the league feel his fate is already sealed. Two general managers told Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post Smith will be fired after the end of the current season.

Three head coaches were let go midseason, and a number of other dismissals are likely to take place on or around Black Monday. It would come as little surprise if Smith were to be let go; the Falcons’ offense has been a sore spot despite a strong offensive line and a sustained investment of draft capital at the skill positions. The team used its top pick on tight end Kyle Pitts in 2021, followed by wideout Drake London in 2022 and running back Bijan Robinson in 2023.

Owing in large part to sub-par play under center, the Falcons rank 26th in the league in scoring (19 points per game). That will no doubt lead to a quarterback pursuit in the offseason, but it could very well prompt a new face being brought in on the sidelines as well. Smith will have at least one more opportunity to stake his claim to the 2024 position on Sunday when the regular season wraps up.

In Week 7, the Falcons raised eyebrows for the way in which they handled their injury report. Specifically, running back Bijan Robinson was not listed despite feeling unwell the night before the game. That has now resulted in league discipline.

The Falcons have been fined $75K and head coach Arthur Smith another $25K following the NFL’s investigation into the matter. Robinson dressed for the game against the Buccaneers, but he admitted after the contest that he was still battling headaches and an illness. The first-round rookie logged only 11 snaps and touched the ball once, a marked deviation from his usage through much of the rest of the season.

“There’s an inquiry and usually you have to respond with a letter. It wasn’t like a court case, it wasn’t a lot of time spent,” Smith said when speaking on the matter, via ESPN’s Michael Rothstein. “Here is how we interpreted it. Here was our intent. Nothing was done to try to game anything like that and I understood their point of view. So lesson learned there.”

With Robinson barely in the gameplan, the Falcons leaned heavily on Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson in the backfield. The pair combined for 31 carries and 115 yards, while Allgeier added 53 yards on three catches. That production helped Atlanta earn a 16-13 win, and Smith noted the effectiveness of the team’s other options with respect to the decision to keep Robinson sidelined for much of the contest. The Falcons have given Robinson 20 or more touches three times this season, but he has also seen less than 15 touches five times (including Week 7).

That fluctuation is in part a product of Atlanta’s depth at the RB spot and the team’s attempt to avoid overusing the highly-touted Texas alum. Robinson comfortably leads the Falcons in rushing yards with 801, and they rank ninth in the league in overall production on the ground (126 yards per game). In general, the 21-year-old has been a key offensive contributor since Week 7 in terms of usage and playing time.

The NFL has repeatedly levied financial penalties for similar violations of injury/illness reporting. As noted by D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 2019 saw a number of fines handed down to teams and head coaches for inaccurate injury reports. The Falcons and Smith have now joined the list as they look toward the final three games of the season.

Prior to the Falcons’ Week 15 matchup with the Panthers, Arthur Smith appeared more likely than not to be given a fourth season in charge. The ugly loss in Charlotte may have changed the situation.

As the Falcons prepare for a crucial matchup with the Colts, they have fallen behind the Buccaneers and Saints in another mediocre NFC South race. With three games remaining, the heat on Smith’s seat appears to be increasing. Although the Falcons have not made a decision on Smith, CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson notes “sentiments of dismay” are rising within the building.

The Falcons finished 7-10 in each of Smith’s first two seasons. While that marked an improvement in 2021, the team is stuck at the game’s premier position. Atlanta, which has held back on quarterback investments since trading Matt Ryan in March 2022, has pivoted once again to Taylor Heinicke. Desmond Ridder, whom the team chose in last year’s third round after narrowly losing the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, has now been benched twice this season.

Arthur Blank, who backed Ridder along with Smith this offseason, did not confirm the former Titans OC would be back for a fourth year. While the owner is expressing support for his HC, that hardly qualifies as a true endorsement at this point on the calendar.

“We are committed to coach Smith,” Blank said, via Georgia Public Broadcasting’s Jeff Hullinger. “We are going to play these last three games; we are committed to win. We will let the season play out and go from there. Obviously, this has not been the kind of year we expected; you would hear that from coach Smith, you would hear it from our fans and our players. We understand that; we understand the challenges. At the end of the year, we will assess where we are and go from there.”

Blank denied the Falcons need to make the playoffs in order for Smith to preserve his job but indicated Ridder’s lack of progress has been an issue. The Falcons fully committed to Ridder by March (as Lamar Jackson was free to negotiate with teams after receiving the nonexclusive franchise tag). The Falcons were hardly alone in refusing to pursue the tagged Raven, but Ridder sits 24th in QBR and has lost his job for a second time.

“That was never really a requirement,” Blank said of a playoff run being necessary for Smith. “The requirement was we have more of a competitive team this year. I think through this part of the season, it’s been mixed, quite honestly, that’s what I think. … It has been tough; we certainly had high hopes for Desmond Ridder. He has done some good things for us this year. He would be the first to tell you, he hasn’t been the kind of consistent performer we’d like him to be.”

Failing to reach double-digit points against Carolina, Atlanta has seen its playoff odds (per ESPN’s FPI) plummet to 11%. Despite improving to eighth in points allowed, Smith’s team sits 26th offensively. Being in that position after spending three straight top-10 picks on skill-position players under Smith and GM Terry Fontenot is not optimal. Based largely on their ground attack, the Falcons ranked 15th during Marcus Mariota‘s lone season at the controls.

Although the Jets look likely to bring back Robert Saleh after three straight losing seasons, the Aaron Rodgers matter is being viewed as a mulligan. With no such issue impeding the Falcons, they are close to completing a sixth straight sub-.500 season. Modern HCs are rarely allowed to stay on the job after three straight losing seasons, and based on Blank’s comments, it is safe to say Smith is coaching for his job to close out the season.

In recent NFL annals, the list of HCs to go 0-for-3 in playoff berths to start a tenure and then be brought back for a fourth year is not long. While Robert Saleh is on track to buck this trend and be brought back after (in all likelihood) three non-playoff seasons in New York, the Falcons are also not expected to shake up their staff.

Although Atlanta is tied for the NFC South lead, the team may not need to make the playoffs for Arthur Smith to keep his job. The Falcons are not expected to, barring a collapse, fire Smith in 2024, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler notes. This differs from a status report on this job last month, which indicated Smith was more likely to go than stay in 2024.

After their loss to the Buccaneers, the Falcons are 6-7. The team finished 7-10 in each of Smith’s first two seasons. The Falcons launched a bit of a rebuild under Smith and GM Terry Fontenot, taking on considerable dead money to move the Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Deion Jones contracts. But the team is looking likely to exit Year 3 without the quarterback position being solved. Desmond Ridder has submitted an inconsistent season, being benched for Taylor Heinicke at one point, after the Falcons backed the 2022 third-round pick throughout the offseason.

Ridder ranks 24th in QBR and, despite the Falcons choosing pass catchers in the top 10 in 2021 (Kyle Pitts) and 2022 (Drake London), has thrown just nine touchdown passes (compared to nine INTs) this season. The Falcons, who were in position to trade for Deshaun Watson had the Browns not come through with the astonishing $230MM guarantee offer last year, joined the rest of the NFL in not pursuing Lamar Jackson this offseason. Arthur Blank expressed an interest in building around Ridder’s rookie contract, but the Falcons may need to explore an upgrade in 2024.

The Falcons ranked third in rushing last season but struggled mightily through the air in the largely Marcus Mariota-quarterbacked campaign. After ranking 15th in points scored last season, Atlanta sits 24th in Ridder’s first full year as a starter. Active in adding defenders this offseason, the team has improved from 23rd to 12th under new DC Ryan Nielsen. But Smith was hired to jumpstart Atlanta’s offense. For the most part, that has not happened.

The NFC South has produced one of the worst two-year periods of any division in NFL history, as it could potentially send a second straight sub-.500 team to the playoffs once again. Every coach in the division has either ventured to a hot seat or already been fired (Frank Reich). The Falcons close the season with only one team (the 7-6 Colts) left on their schedule with a winning record. This could give Smith a final platform to convince ownership he deserves a fourth season. Should the Falcons retain Smith for 2024, he will certainly enter the season on a scorching seat.

Things aren’t going well for Arthur Smith and the Falcons. After losing to the lowly Cardinals on Sunday, the Falcons have now dropped three-straight games and six of their last eight. This has naturally led to some questions surrounding the head coach’s job security.

Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post opines that the Falcons will move on from Smith following the 2023 season. The reporter cites a rival general manager who believes Atlanta will look to make a change during the offseason.

“I think they’re making a change,” the GM told La Canfora. “This is Year 3, when you’re supposed to show something. [Owner] Arthur Blank isn’t getting any younger. …

“They can’t throw the ball downfield, they don’t have a starting quarterback, they took the running back way too high. [Smith] is a great guy, but he got hired to be a quarterback guy and they have all these top-10 picks and they can’t do anything with them. Somebody in the NFC South is going to save their job by winning the division, but I don’t think it’s him.”

Smith was expected to revamp the offense when he was hired as Falcons head coach in 2021. The team finished with identical 7-10 records in both 2021 and 2022, but it was the current 2023 campaign that was intended to be Atlanta’s breakout season.

Instead, the offense has continued to struggle. Desmond Ridder was inconsistent under center to begin the season, and replacement Taylor Heinicke didn’t fare much better. Further, the Falcons have invested significant draft capital into offensive players like running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Drake London. Despite all three of those players being selected in the top-10 of their respective drafts, the trio has combined for only seven touchdowns this season. Smith has his fingerprints on the entire roster, and assuming the Falcons fail to make the playoffs, the head coach will surely find himself on the hot seat.

However, there may be hope for Smith in Atlanta. Jeff Schultz of The Athletic reports that Blank has been supportive of his head coach behind the scenes. While the owner previously indicated that he wanted to see progress from his squad in 2023, Schultz writes that this doesn’t necessarily mean there will be a change on the sideline. In fact, Schultz opines that the only way Smith loses his job is if his squad completely unravels or tunes the coach out.

For what it’s worth, Smith isn’t overly concerned about his job status. The coach told Schultz that he understands the criticism but isn’t paying much attention to the headlines.

“I’m an old lineman — I’m used to getting my ass ripped,” he told The Athletic. “In the old days, it was just you writing a column. Now there’s 7,000 forums for outrage. I get it. But you can’t worry about everything around you, things you can’t control. Like I said earlier, if you’re worried about that stuff, don’t sign up for professional sports.”