Arthur Smith

Steelers, Arthur Smith Discuss OC Job

January 28th, 2024 at 1:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

Arthur Smith‘s name came up about coordinator jobs this week, though no teams were tied to the three-year Falcons HC just yet. At least one is now.

The Steelers will meet with Smith about their OC opening Sunday, NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero reports. This marks Smith’s first connection to a team since the Falcons began Black Monday — at 12:01am ET — by firing him. Pittsburgh just saw Smith’s most recent employer interfere with its OC search, and Mike Tomlin will soon gauge the veteran play-caller’s fit for his team. The Steelers are preparing to hire an OC from outside the organization; they have only done this once (Todd Haley, 2012) this century.

Zac Robinson received a Steelers OC interview request, but he has instead committed to the Falcons. When Atlanta chose Raheem Morris over Bill Belichick, an immediate connection linked Robinson to following his recent Rams coworker to Georgia. That came to fruition, with the Falcons hiring the popular OC candidate. The Steelers have also interviewed Panthers OC Thomas Brown and Texans QBs coach Jerrod Johnson.

While Smith’s stock has dropped since he moved to the hot seat in Atlanta, it is not long ago he was an in-demand HC candidate. Essentially the 2021 coaching carousel’s Ben Johnson equivalent, Smith chose the Falcons. He was unable to turn the team around, but even as Atlanta conducted a rebuild effort, Smith immediately had the team at 7-10 in back-to-back seasons despite dead money piling up. The 7-10 mark the Falcons posted in 2023 looked a bit different, considering what they had invested in the team by this point. Two ugly losses — to the Bears and Saints — prompted the Falcons to fire Smith.

Smith, 41, has worked as an NFL play-caller for the past five seasons. His two-year run as Titans OC, replacing Matt LaFleur, commanded extensive interest. The Titans journeyed to the 2019 AFC championship game, re-routing their season after a 2-4 start. Smith was given appropriate credit for reviving Ryan Tannehill‘s career. Tannehill’s 9.6 yards per attempt that season remains tied for eighth all time; only Kurt Warner has bettered that mark in a season since the 1950s. Smith also unleashed Derrick Henry, with both of the bulldozing running back’s rushing titles coming during Smith’s Tennessee play-calling tenure.

The Falcons boasted the NFL’s No. 3-ranked rushing offense in 2022, largely under Marcus Mariota, but struggled consistently to pass during Mariota and Desmond Ridder‘s seasons as the primary quarterback. The Falcons ranked 26th in scoring offense this season. Considering the Steelers are again centering an offseason around Kenny Pickett development, Smith’s recent past with QBs is notable. Given Smith’s experience, however, it would surprise if he did not receive a second chance as a coordinator.

Coaching Notes: Callahan, Browns, Vrabel, Seahawks, Smith, Johnson, Texans, Jets

January 24th, 2024 at 5:34pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Titans ended Brian Callahan‘s five-year stay as a non-play-calling Bengals OC, hiring the veteran assistant as their Mike Vrabel successor. Although Callahan has never been his team’s primary play-caller, he will not give his first Tennessee OC that responsibility. Callahan will call Titans offensive plays, veteran reporter Paul Kuharsky notes. Callahan has spent five years learning from Bengals HC/play-caller Zac Taylor. He also worked under Jon Gruden in 2018 and Gary Kubiak in 2015. Not calling plays in Cincinnati undoubtedly held Callahan back, considering the success the Bengals’ offense generated during Joe Burrow‘s early years.

During a busy day on the coaching carousel, here is the latest from around the league:

Duce Staley will land on his feet. The recently dismissed Panthers running backs coach will take the same position with the Browns, cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot reports. The Jets had planned to make Staley an offer as well, but the veteran RBs coach will replace Stump Mitchell in Cleveland. Staley has coached running backs for the past 11 seasons, doing so with the Eagles, Lions and Panthers. The former NFL running back will have a chance to coach Nick Chubb, assuming the perennial Pro Bowler returns from his ACL tear.
The Browns are also working to hire one of Nick Saban’s former assistants to replace the other position coach they fired last week. Tommy Rees, who landed the Notre Dame OC job in his 20s and held the same position at Alabama last season, is on the Browns’ radar, The Athletic’s Zac Jackson tweets. A former Chargers assistant, Rees is expected to become the Browns’ tight ends coach. Cleveland dismissed T.C. McCartney last week.
Two casualties of this coaching carousel are candidates to land elsewhere soon. Ex-Falcons HC Arthur Smith and recently dismissed Eagles OC Brian Johnson have generated interest around the league, according to The Athletic’s Dianna Russini. Smith is being monitored as an OC candidate, per Russini, with a handful of teams looking into the three-year Atlanta HC. Prior to Smith’s Falcons tenure, the ex-Titans OC generated widespread interest as a head coach option in 2021. Johnson has not achieved similar status, and Russini does not confirm the one-year Eagles play-caller is on the OC radar. Though, that would not surprise considering Johnson received multiple HC interview requests during this cycle.
Mentioned recently as a candidate on the Seahawks‘ radar, Vrabel may be receiving some support from Seattle players. Some Seahawks view Vrabel as the best option for the job, per Sportskeeda’s Tony Pauline. Although Vrabel now has three interviews completed or booked, the Seahawks have not yet met with him. They have met with their former DC, Dan Quinn, who was the first name to emerge as the top Pete Carroll successor option. The Dallas DC should still be considered the frontrunner, Pauline adds. Quinn has a second interview scheduled for Friday, but the Seahawks have a few targets set for second meetings this week.
The Texans are not bringing back defensive line coach Jacques Cesaire, KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson notes. Lovie Smith hired Cesaire in 2022, whose contract is expiring. DeMeco Ryans‘ club did set a single-season sack record, with 46, which is quite something considering this franchise employed J.J. Watt for nine seasons. A former NFL D-lineman, Cesaire has been a D-line coach in the league since 2020.
On the subject of AFC D-line coaches, the Jets are retaining theirs. Aaron Whitecotton‘s contract was set to expire, per ESPN’s Rich Cimini, but the New York Post’s Brian Costello notes the team reached an extension agreement Wednesday. Considering the success the Jets have had up front over the past two seasons, it is unsurprising they made a commitment to keep the Robert Saleh lieutenant around. The Jets also interviewed former Titans assistant Tony Dews for their RBs coach job, The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt tweets. Tennessee’s tight ends coach in 2023, Dews worked alongside current Jets staffers Todd Downing and Keith Carter in Tennessee.

Falcons Fire HC Arthur Smith

January 7th, 2024 at 11:07pm CST by Sam Robinson

After Arthur Blank‘s stance on his head coach oscillated for weeks, the Atlanta owner made a decision late Sunday night. The Falcons will move on from Arthur Smith after three seasons, NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero reports. The Falcons have since announced the move.

Late in the week, Blank was believed to be hoping to keep Smith. But coaches with three straight sub-.500 seasons are rarely retained for a fourth. The Jets will make Robert Saleh an exception; the Falcons will not give Smith a similar mulligan. A third consecutive 7-10 season, as the Buccaneers’ win over the Panthers prevented the Falcons-Saints winner from booking a playoff spot, will lead the offensive-minded HC out of town. Blank announced the firing at 12:01am ET, beginning Black Monday at the earliest possible juncture.

Smith’s tenure becomes the shortest by a Falcons HC since Bobby Petrino left for the Arkansas HC job late in his one-and-done season (2007). Mike Smith lasted seven years; Dan Quinn was in place from 2015-20.

Considering the Falcons closed their season with multiple blowout losses, Smith’s ouster was not difficult to foresee. While the NFC South team made strides on defense, Smith could not turn Desmond Ridder into a reliable quarterback. Blank, Smith and GM Terry Fontenot backed Ridder this offseason, but the 2022 third-round pick struggled frequently. Smith’s reputation as an offense-oriented coach certainly hurt him as Ridder continued to stumble in his first full season as a starter. Smith benched Ridder twice but reinstalled him as the starter to close the season.

Fontenot has not been fired. A Blank statement indicated he and CEO Rich McKay will lead the search for Smith’s replacement; the longtime owner said Fontenot will provide input during the upcoming search. Although Blank had seemingly gone back and forth on Smith in recent weeks, he had reached out to confidants around the league for advice here. The Falcons will shift gears, with a bigger quarterback swing likely ahead.

“We have profound respect for coach Smith and appreciate all the hard work and dedication he has put into the Falcons over the last three years,” Blank said in a statement. “He has been part of building a good culture in our football team, but the results on the field have not met our expectations. After significant thought and reflection, we have determined the best way forward for our team is new leadership in the head coaching position.”

Blank said in the spring he was eager to see his team build a roster around a rookie-QB contract, but many were skeptical Ridder would justify the organization’s confidence. The team backed the Cincinnati alum throughout the offseason, signing Taylor Heinicke to be a backup while passing on a potential Lamar Jackson offer sheet. The Falcons were not the only team to avoid the soon-to-be two-time MVP, but Blank’s comments on the Ravens superstar were notable considering the push the team made for Deshaun Watson in 2022. Watson appeared all set to waive his no-trade clause to return to his home state, but a Browns $230MM full guarantee changed the equation — and the state of the Falcons’ quarterback situation. Ridder arrived as the No. 74 overall pick the following month.

The Falcons have assembled an intriguing array of skill-position talent during Smith’s tenure, and Pro Football Focus ranked Atlanta’s offensive line sixth going into Week 18. But the supporting pieces did not move the needle much this season. Going 3-for-3 in first-round skill-position investments under Smith, Atlanta made Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson top-10 choices in that span. Each has shown flashes and will be appealing to HC candidates, but the Falcons ranked 26th in scoring offense this season.

Atlanta did not surpass 22 points per game in any of Smith’s three seasons. The team pivoted from a Matt Ryan-guided attack in 2021 to a run-oriented offense around ex-Smith Titans charge Marcus Mariota in 2022. The Mariota season ended up supplying the most effective Smith-run offense, with a ground-geared approach producing a No. 3-ranked rushing attack. Mariota’s aerial limitations prompted Smith to bench him for Ridder with four games remaining last season. Ridder ranks 26th in QBR this year, doing the most to restrain the Falcons and ensure a playoff absence for a sixth straight season.

To be fair, Smith and Fontenot took on a rebuild in 2021. Until the Broncos release Russell Wilson, the Falcons’ $40.5MM dead-money hit from the March 2022 Ryan trade remains the NFL single-player record. Atlanta also took on considerable dead money from the June 2021 Julio Jones trade and October 2022 Deion Jones deal.

Both Joneses affected Atlanta’s cap sheet over multiple years, but with the Ryan dead money off the books this past offseason, the Falcons spent to fortify their defense. Jessie Bates, Calais Campbell, David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss trekked to Georgia, and the investments paid off defensively. Atlanta entered Week 18 ranking ninth in scoring defense. The Saints’ 48-17 bashing, which came after a 37-17 Bears romp, dropped the Falcons to 18th. The Falcons hired DC Ryan Nielsen in January 2023; the longtime Saints assistant’s position should certainly be considered tenuous given the Smith news.

Nearly seven years have passed since the Falcons’ infamous 25-point collapse in Super Bowl LI. Blank kept Quinn on for four more seasons, firing him early in the 2020 campaign. The team steadily plummeted from its NFC title perch and has become an also-ran during two historically bad divisional races. That said, a quarterback improvement would provide immediate intrigue given the state of the roster.

With Blank turning 82 this year, it would not surprise to see the veteran owner turn to an experienced HC. Bill Belichick has been connected to every opening thus far, and it would be interesting — given the shape of the defense and the above-referenced pieces on offense — to see if rumors continue on this front. For now, the Falcons will attempt to regroup as Fontenot — who will ride shotgun during this search, perhaps illustrating his own slide to a hot seat — attempts to upgrade the team in the coming months.

Falcons Owner Arthur Blank Exploring HC Options; Bill Belichick On Radar?

January 7th, 2024 at 5:32pm CST by Rory Parks

5:32pm: Week 18 did not go as planned for the Falcons, with a 48-17 loss marking an emphatic end to the campaign. Given the nature of Atlanta’s finish to the season, Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz provides the unsurprising update that this situation is pointing to a Smith dismissal. In such a scenario, the Falcons would join the Panthers as an NFC South squad in need of a new head coach during the upcoming hiring cycle.

8:24am: As of the time of this writing, the job status of Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is murky at best. Over the course of the past two months, we have heard reports suggesting that Smith is likely to get a fourth year on the job in 2024, as well as reports indicating that he is on the hot seat.

At the very least, it appears that owner Arthur Blank is not fully committed to Smith. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com, Blank is torn on how he should proceed, and he has “gone back and forth” on the matter (which helps to explain the vacillating reports). In case he does decide to part ways with Smith, Blank has explored what options might be available to him in the upcoming coaching cycle.

Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero of NFL.com also hear that Blank is considering a change, and that the owner has been calling his confidants within the league for advice. Should Atlanta, which is 1-4 over its past five games, defeat the Saints in today’s regular season finale, Rapoport and Pelissero say that Smith would stand a better chance of surviving Black Monday, even if the victory does not propel the club to a playoff spot (in addition to a win over New Orleans, the Falcons need the Panthers to upset the Bucs in order to qualify for a postseason berth). That is in keeping with a report from Albert Breer of SI.com just two days ago.

Smith and GM Terry Fontenot inherited a difficult salary cap and roster situation when Blank hired the duo in 2021, and the team has made considerable strides in terms of talent level on both sides of the ball. The problem has been the Falcons’ quarterback play, though Atlanta obviously has not landed a top-tier QB during the Fontenot-Smith partnership (the team’s attempts to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Texans during the 2022 offseason fell just short, which may have been a blessing in disguise). As Rapoport writes, the team will be taking a big swing on a signal-caller in the 2024 offseason regardless of who the head coach is, so perhaps Blank will give Smith — whose offensive acumen he greatly respects — one more shot to see what he can do with a more talented passer.

If Blank hands Smith his walking papers, Bill Belichick would be a legitimate candidate to replace him, per Rapoport and Pelissero. The prevailing opinion is that today’s game will be Belichick’s last as the Patriots’ HC, and his name has come up a great deal in conversations that the NFL.com duo has had with league sources about the Falcons’ future over the past week (Ben Volin of the Boston Globe, meanwhile, has been beating the Belichick-to-Atlanta drum for some time).

Assuming the Patriots and Belichick do end their relationship, the separation is expected to take weeks to finalize, which could further complicate Blank’s decision. Still, a team that appears to be a quarterback away from legitimate contention may be willing to roll the dice on a 72-year-old head coach, and Belichick, in turn, may believe that Atlanta gives him a real chance to overtake Don Shula for first place on the all-time coaching wins list (assuming the team does, in fact, add a high-end QB).

Staff Rumors: Commanders, Smith, Falcons, Bears, Pierce, Raiders, Giants

January 5th, 2024 at 5:14pm CST by Sam Robinson

Among head coaches, Ron Rivera resides as the only true lock to be fired following Week 18. The Commanders‘ new ownership injects mystery into the upcoming search. Josh Harris has been rumored to be intrigued by a setup in which a football operations president-type figure oversees a GM and head coach, and SI.com’s Albert Breer further points to the owner being unlikely to hand the keys to a high-powered HC. Like Bill Belichick, Breer considers Jim Harbaugh an unlikely candidate in Washington. It is not known if Belichick would require personnel control if he ends up elsewhere, but Harbaugh having the leverage of more Michigan extension offers, it is expected the hard-edged HC would need significant input on the personnel front if he were to return to the NFL. So far, the Chargers have been the team most closely linked to luring him back.

Additionally, Breer notes Harris is intrigued by how the Eagles and Ravens’ power structures are set up. The Commanders hired ex-Ravens analytics staffer Eugene Shen as senior VP of football strategy in the fall. While the Eagles lost four staffers to assistant GM roles in 2022, the Ravens have a GM candidate in player personnel director Joe Hortiz. Baltimore’s OC-DC tandem — Todd Monken and Mike Macdonald — is expected to generate HC interest as well.

Going into Week 18, here is the latest from staffs around the NFL:

With the Falcons on the doorstep of a third straight 7-10 season, Arthur Smith‘s job status has come up frequently. Vacillating back and forth between being fired or becoming the rare HC to be given a fourth year despite three straight losing seasons, Smith was not exactly given a vote of confidence by Arthur Blank. But the longtime Falcons owner is not believed to be actively seeking changes, per Breer, making it sound like the hope is for Smith and GM Terry Fontenot to show enough to stay on. A one-sided loss to the Saints may well change Blank’s mind. The Falcons can win the NFC South by beating the Saints and the Buccaneers — who also have a coach on the hot seat — losing to the Panthers.
Ryan Poles is believed to have a good relationship with new Bears president Kevin Warren, being expected to stay on for a third year as GM. Prior to the Bears‘ rout of the Falcons, Matt Eberflus was linked to being in good standing for a third HC season. While expecting both to stay, Breer notes neither Bears power broker has been assured of a return. Warren has been a wild card in this scenario since he was hired, and the former Big Ten commissioner did not confirm publicly when asked Friday (via the Chicago Sun-Times’ Patrick Finley) if Eberflus would be retained. Eberflus is 10-23 as Bears HC, but the team — which has a rather important quarterback decision to make soon — is 7-5 over its past 12.
Raiders leaders Davante Adams, Maxx Crosby and Josh Jacobs would back the retention of interim HC Antonio Pierce, but Mark Davis is believed to be aiming higher. After all, Pierce — who resigned his two-year post as Arizona State DC in 2022 — has far less experience than Raiders DC Patrick Graham. But Pierce’s knowledge of the Raiders’ culture and history does appeal to Davis, Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com writes, noting these factors matter considerably to the second-generation owner. No team has bumped an interim leader to the full-time post since the Jaguars elevated Doug Marrone in 2017.
Giants running backs coach Jeff Nixon is set for a responsibility jump; it will come at the college level. Syracuse hired Nixon as its offensive coordinator Friday. Nixon was in his first season as Giants RBs coach; he had served under Matt Rhule at Baylor and with the Panthers. The Giants hired Nixon last year to replace DeAndre Smith, who left to take the same position with the Colts.

Latest On Falcons HC Arthur Smith

January 2nd, 2024 at 2:46pm CST by Adam La Rose

Questions continue to swirl regarding the fate of head coaches around the NFC South. In Atlanta’s case, Arthur Smith‘s job security has appeared to change on a number of occasions recently.

The third-year head coach was first thought to be on the hot seat in November, due in large part to the team’s offensive struggles. Multiple quarterback changes have taken place this year, and 2022 third-rounder Desmond Ridder has not managed to establish himself as a starting-caliber option. In spite of that, a report from last month pointed to Smith being retained for at least one more year.

The Falcons went 7-10 in each of his first two campaigns, and he is on the verge of posting an identical mark in 2023. Atlanta finishes the regular season schedule against New Orleans, the other team with a chance of surpassing the Buccaneers for top spot in the NFC South. Tampa Bay would be required to lose to Carolina for that to be possible, however, and the Falcons cannot claim a wild-card berth.

With Atlanta’s playoff drought likely to extend to seven years, owner Arthur Blank has declined to offer a public commitment for or against retaining Smith. The latter’s job status will likely be influenced by the way in which the Falcons finish the year, but some around the league feel his fate is already sealed. Two general managers told Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post Smith will be fired after the end of the current season.

Three head coaches were let go midseason, and a number of other dismissals are likely to take place on or around Black Monday. It would come as little surprise if Smith were to be let go; the Falcons’ offense has been a sore spot despite a strong offensive line and a sustained investment of draft capital at the skill positions. The team used its top pick on tight end Kyle Pitts in 2021, followed by wideout Drake London in 2022 and running back Bijan Robinson in 2023.

Owing in large part to sub-par play under center, the Falcons rank 26th in the league in scoring (19 points per game). That will no doubt lead to a quarterback pursuit in the offseason, but it could very well prompt a new face being brought in on the sidelines as well. Smith will have at least one more opportunity to stake his claim to the 2024 position on Sunday when the regular season wraps up.

Falcons, HC Arthur Smith Fined For Handling Of Week 7 Injury Report

December 22nd, 2023 at 6:13pm CST by Adam La Rose

In Week 7, the Falcons raised eyebrows for the way in which they handled their injury report. Specifically, running back Bijan Robinson was not listed despite feeling unwell the night before the game. That has now resulted in league discipline.

The Falcons have been fined $75K and head coach Arthur Smith another $25K following the NFL’s investigation into the matter. Robinson dressed for the game against the Buccaneers, but he admitted after the contest that he was still battling headaches and an illness. The first-round rookie logged only 11 snaps and touched the ball once, a marked deviation from his usage through much of the rest of the season.

“There’s an inquiry and usually you have to respond with a letter. It wasn’t like a court case, it wasn’t a lot of time spent,” Smith said when speaking on the matter, via ESPN’s Michael Rothstein. “Here is how we interpreted it. Here was our intent. Nothing was done to try to game anything like that and I understood their point of view. So lesson learned there.”

With Robinson barely in the gameplan, the Falcons leaned heavily on Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson in the backfield. The pair combined for 31 carries and 115 yards, while Allgeier added 53 yards on three catches. That production helped Atlanta earn a 16-13 win, and Smith noted the effectiveness of the team’s other options with respect to the decision to keep Robinson sidelined for much of the contest. The Falcons have given Robinson 20 or more touches three times this season, but he has also seen less than 15 touches five times (including Week 7).

That fluctuation is in part a product of Atlanta’s depth at the RB spot and the team’s attempt to avoid overusing the highly-touted Texas alum. Robinson comfortably leads the Falcons in rushing yards with 801, and they rank ninth in the league in overall production on the ground (126 yards per game). In general, the 21-year-old has been a key offensive contributor since Week 7 in terms of usage and playing time.

The NFL has repeatedly levied financial penalties for similar violations of injury/illness reporting. As noted by D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 2019 saw a number of fines handed down to teams and head coaches for inaccurate injury reports. The Falcons and Smith have now joined the list as they look toward the final three games of the season.

Arthur Blank Addresses Arthur Smith’s Status; Falcons HC’s Seat Warming?

December 20th, 2023 at 9:46am CST by Sam Robinson

Prior to the Falcons’ Week 15 matchup with the Panthers, Arthur Smith appeared more likely than not to be given a fourth season in charge. The ugly loss in Charlotte may have changed the situation.

As the Falcons prepare for a crucial matchup with the Colts, they have fallen behind the Buccaneers and Saints in another mediocre NFC South race. With three games remaining, the heat on Smith’s seat appears to be increasing. Although the Falcons have not made a decision on Smith, CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson notes “sentiments of dismay” are rising within the building.

The Falcons finished 7-10 in each of Smith’s first two seasons. While that marked an improvement in 2021, the team is stuck at the game’s premier position. Atlanta, which has held back on quarterback investments since trading Matt Ryan in March 2022, has pivoted once again to Taylor Heinicke. Desmond Ridder, whom the team chose in last year’s third round after narrowly losing the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, has now been benched twice this season.

Arthur Blank, who backed Ridder along with Smith this offseason, did not confirm the former Titans OC would be back for a fourth year. While the owner is expressing support for his HC, that hardly qualifies as a true endorsement at this point on the calendar.

“We are committed to coach Smith,” Blank said, via Georgia Public Broadcasting’s Jeff Hullinger. “We are going to play these last three games; we are committed to win. We will let the season play out and go from there. Obviously, this has not been the kind of year we expected; you would hear that from coach Smith, you would hear it from our fans and our players. We understand that; we understand the challenges. At the end of the year, we will assess where we are and go from there.”

Blank denied the Falcons need to make the playoffs in order for Smith to preserve his job but indicated Ridder’s lack of progress has been an issue. The Falcons fully committed to Ridder by March (as Lamar Jackson was free to negotiate with teams after receiving the nonexclusive franchise tag). The Falcons were hardly alone in refusing to pursue the tagged Raven, but Ridder sits 24th in QBR and has lost his job for a second time.

“That was never really a requirement,” Blank said of a playoff run being necessary for Smith. “The requirement was we have more of a competitive team this year. I think through this part of the season, it’s been mixed, quite honestly, that’s what I think. … It has been tough; we certainly had high hopes for Desmond Ridder. He has done some good things for us this year. He would be the first to tell you, he hasn’t been the kind of consistent performer we’d like him to be.”

Failing to reach double-digit points against Carolina, Atlanta has seen its playoff odds (per ESPN’s FPI) plummet to 11%. Despite improving to eighth in points allowed, Smith’s team sits 26th offensively. Being in that position after spending three straight top-10 picks on skill-position players under Smith and GM Terry Fontenot is not optimal. Based largely on their ground attack, the Falcons ranked 15th during Marcus Mariota‘s lone season at the controls.

Although the Jets look likely to bring back Robert Saleh after three straight losing seasons, the Aaron Rodgers matter is being viewed as a mulligan. With no such issue impeding the Falcons, they are close to completing a sixth straight sub-.500 season. Modern HCs are rarely allowed to stay on the job after three straight losing seasons, and based on Blank’s comments, it is safe to say Smith is coaching for his job to close out the season.

Falcons Unlikely To Fire HC Arthur Smith

December 13th, 2023 at 10:31am CST by Sam Robinson

In recent NFL annals, the list of HCs to go 0-for-3 in playoff berths to start a tenure and then be brought back for a fourth year is not long. While Robert Saleh is on track to buck this trend and be brought back after (in all likelihood) three non-playoff seasons in New York, the Falcons are also not expected to shake up their staff.

Although Atlanta is tied for the NFC South lead, the team may not need to make the playoffs for Arthur Smith to keep his job. The Falcons are not expected to, barring a collapse, fire Smith in 2024, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler notes. This differs from a status report on this job last month, which indicated Smith was more likely to go than stay in 2024.

After their loss to the Buccaneers, the Falcons are 6-7. The team finished 7-10 in each of Smith’s first two seasons. The Falcons launched a bit of a rebuild under Smith and GM Terry Fontenot, taking on considerable dead money to move the Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Deion Jones contracts. But the team is looking likely to exit Year 3 without the quarterback position being solved. Desmond Ridder has submitted an inconsistent season, being benched for Taylor Heinicke at one point, after the Falcons backed the 2022 third-round pick throughout the offseason.

Ridder ranks 24th in QBR and, despite the Falcons choosing pass catchers in the top 10 in 2021 (Kyle Pitts) and 2022 (Drake London), has thrown just nine touchdown passes (compared to nine INTs) this season. The Falcons, who were in position to trade for Deshaun Watson had the Browns not come through with the astonishing $230MM guarantee offer last year, joined the rest of the NFL in not pursuing Lamar Jackson this offseason. Arthur Blank expressed an interest in building around Ridder’s rookie contract, but the Falcons may need to explore an upgrade in 2024.

The Falcons ranked third in rushing last season but struggled mightily through the air in the largely Marcus Mariota-quarterbacked campaign. After ranking 15th in points scored last season, Atlanta sits 24th in Ridder’s first full year as a starter. Active in adding defenders this offseason, the team has improved from 23rd to 12th under new DC Ryan Nielsen. But Smith was hired to jumpstart Atlanta’s offense. For the most part, that has not happened.

The NFC South has produced one of the worst two-year periods of any division in NFL history, as it could potentially send a second straight sub-.500 team to the playoffs once again. Every coach in the division has either ventured to a hot seat or already been fired (Frank Reich). The Falcons close the season with only one team (the 7-6 Colts) left on their schedule with a winning record. This could give Smith a final platform to convince ownership he deserves a fourth season. Should the Falcons retain Smith for 2024, he will certainly enter the season on a scorching seat.

Falcons HC Arthur Smith On Hot Seat?

November 14th, 2023 at 9:08pm CST by Ben Levine

Things aren’t going well for Arthur Smith and the Falcons. After losing to the lowly Cardinals on Sunday, the Falcons have now dropped three-straight games and six of their last eight. This has naturally led to some questions surrounding the head coach’s job security.

Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post opines that the Falcons will move on from Smith following the 2023 season. The reporter cites a rival general manager who believes Atlanta will look to make a change during the offseason.

“I think they’re making a change,” the GM told La Canfora. “This is Year 3, when you’re supposed to show something. [Owner] Arthur Blank isn’t getting any younger. …

“They can’t throw the ball downfield, they don’t have a starting quarterback, they took the running back way too high. [Smith] is a great guy, but he got hired to be a quarterback guy and they have all these top-10 picks and they can’t do anything with them. Somebody in the NFC South is going to save their job by winning the division, but I don’t think it’s him.”

Smith was expected to revamp the offense when he was hired as Falcons head coach in 2021. The team finished with identical 7-10 records in both 2021 and 2022, but it was the current 2023 campaign that was intended to be Atlanta’s breakout season.

Instead, the offense has continued to struggle. Desmond Ridder was inconsistent under center to begin the season, and replacement Taylor Heinicke didn’t fare much better. Further, the Falcons have invested significant draft capital into offensive players like running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and wide receiver Drake London. Despite all three of those players being selected in the top-10 of their respective drafts, the trio has combined for only seven touchdowns this season. Smith has his fingerprints on the entire roster, and assuming the Falcons fail to make the playoffs, the head coach will surely find himself on the hot seat.

However, there may be hope for Smith in Atlanta. Jeff Schultz of The Athletic reports that Blank has been supportive of his head coach behind the scenes. While the owner previously indicated that he wanted to see progress from his squad in 2023, Schultz writes that this doesn’t necessarily mean there will be a change on the sideline. In fact, Schultz opines that the only way Smith loses his job is if his squad completely unravels or tunes the coach out.

For what it’s worth, Smith isn’t overly concerned about his job status. The coach told Schultz that he understands the criticism but isn’t paying much attention to the headlines.

“I’m an old lineman — I’m used to getting my ass ripped,” he told The Athletic. “In the old days, it was just you writing a column. Now there’s 7,000 forums for outrage. I get it. But you can’t worry about everything around you, things you can’t control. Like I said earlier, if you’re worried about that stuff, don’t sign up for professional sports.”

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