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AFC South Notes: Colts, Melvin, Jaguars, Lee

February 28th, 2018 at 8:55pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Let’s take a quick spin around the AFC South:

The Colts intend to allow free agent cornerback Rashaan Melvin hit the open market, general manager Chris Ballard told reporters, including Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star (Twitter link). That’s perhaps unsurprising given that Melvin is one of the more intriguing and unproven players scheduled to hit free agency next month. Melvin, 28, had appeared in only 12 games and made two starts before joining the Colts in 2016. He’s since started 19 games over the past two seasons, and was outstanding in 2017, grading as the NFL’s No. 17 cornerback, per Pro Football Focus. While Melvin could certainly become a diamond in the rough for a team who trusts him as a full-time starter, it’s also possible he turns back into a pumpkin, so there’s risk involved in his free agent case.
While the Jaguars hope to retain free agent wideout Allen Robinson, they’re “far more likely” to to sign several cheaper options than pay up for Robinson, according to Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com, who points to fellow Jacksonville free agent Marqise Lee as an alternative for general manager Dave Caldwell & Co. The Jaguars are reportedly open to using the franchise tag on Robinson, which would enable them to keep their top pass-catcher for a one-year cost of ~$16MM. However, Jacksonville is relatively cap-strapped, so adding multiple low-cost options could make more financial sense for the team.
The Colts have continued to fill out Frank Reich‘s staff by hiring Tom Rathman as running backs coach and Kevin Patullo as wide receivers coach, reports Alex Marvez of the Sporting News (multiple stories). Rathman previously served two stints with the 49ers, but he won’t coaching his former pupil Frank Gore, whom Indianapolis does not plan to re-sign. In addition to his work in San Francisco, Rathmaan has also coached in Detroit and Oakland. Patullo, meanwhile, has led quarterbacks and wide receivers in stops with the Jets, Titans, and Bills, but spent 2017 as an analyst for Texas A&M.

Jaguars Trying To Re-Sign Allen Robinson

February 26th, 2018 at 10:18am CST by Dallas Robinson

The Jaguars were busy last week, as they not only extended quarterback Blake Bortles through 2020, but locked up decision-makers Tom Coughlin, Dave Caldwell, and Doug Marrone through the 2021 campaign. With those moves out of the way, Jacksonville will now try to hammer out an agreement with free agent wide receiver Allen Robinson, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link).

As Rapoport notes, the Jaguars freed up cap space by extending Bortles and releasing running back Chris Ivory, bringing the club’s total amount of projected cap room to $30MM+. As such, Jacksonville has ample funds if it decides to use the franchise tag — at a cost north of $16MM — on Robinson, a possibility PFR’s Rory Parks examined on Sunday. The Jaguars have indicated a willingness to deploy the tender, but would presumably prefer a long-term deal with Robinson.

Robinson, who missed all but three snaps of the 2017 season after suffering a torn ACL, figures to be one of the most-coveted wideouts on the open market if he reaches free agency. Fellow pass-catcher Jarvis Landry has already been franchise-tagged by the Dolphins, while Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins could also be restricted by such a tender. Paul Richardson, Mike Wallace, and Marqise Lee round out the best available wide receivers who will hit the market next month.

Robinson broke out during the 2015 campaign (his second in the NFL) by posting 80 receptions, 1,400 yards, and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. The next year was something of a down season, although he still managed 73 catches.

Franchise Tag Candidate: Allen Robinson

February 25th, 2018 at 12:12pm CST by Rory Parks

Allen Robinson is one of the top receivers in this year’s class of free agent wideouts, and while Robinson and the Jaguars have not engaged in contract talks, Jacksonville is reportedly open to hitting him with the franchise tag to keep him around for 2018.

Robinson presents an interesting case. He was fantastic in 2015, posting 80 catches for 1,400 yards and a whopping 14 touchdowns en route to his first Pro Bowl nod. However, much of that production came when the Jags were trailing big and were forced to throw the football, often against soft coverages. He regressed in 2016, as he put up just 883 yards and six scores, and his 2017 campaign was wiped out by a torn ACL.

So what you have is an intriguing player in the prime of his career with tantalizing physical tools who is two years removed from his best season and who is coming off a major injury. He also struggled against press coverage in 2016, which certainly doesn’t help.

Nonetheless, he is the most gifted receiver on the Jags’ roster, and there would be at least a few teams willing to gamble on his upside if he hits the open market. Jacksonville knows that, and it also knows that it needs to surround Blake Bortles — who just signed an extension keeping him with the Jags through 2020 — with as much talent as possible. That explains why the Jags would be willing to pony up the $16MM franchise tender for a player with Robinson’s promising but questionable track record.

Fellow Jags wideout Marqise Lee is also set to hit free agency, and while he has been a solid contributor over the last several years, he is not nearly as talented as Robinson, and he, too, struggles against press coverage. So if the Jags are to let either player walk, it would likely be Lee. The other wideouts on the roster include the solid but unspectacular Allen Hurns, the unproven Dede Westbrook, and 2017 UDFA Keelan Cole.

There are plenty of intriguing wideouts in this year’s draft, but most of them are Day 2 types and may not be ready to contribute right away, and there are no other free agents that are not likely to be tagged who can match Robinson’s upside. The guess here is that Robinson plays out the 2018 season under the tag and that Jacksonville picks up a wideout in the second or third round to groom behind him.

No Contract Talks Between Jaguars, Allen Robinson

February 22nd, 2018 at 6:41pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Jaguars have not engaged in contract talks with pending free agent receiver Allen Robinson since last year’s training camp, according to Mike Kaye of First Coast News (Twitter link).

Jacksonville would like to retain Robinson, and is reportedly open to using the franchise tag to keep him in town. The franchise tender would also give the Jaguars the opportunity to keep Robinson — who is recovering from a torn ACL — for one more year without being forced to commit for the long-term. A franchise tag for a wide receiver is expected to cost more than $16MM in 2018.

“It’s not like one of those things where it happened at the end of the year,” Robinson said when discussing his ACL tear, which occurred in the 2017 season opener. “I’ll be cleared well before the season starts and well before training camp. Every team across the league knows what I’ve done in this league and what I’m capable of so that’s not really an issue.”

Robinson broke out during the 2015 campaign (his second in the NFL) by posting 80 receptions, 1,400 yards, and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. The next year was something of a down season, although he still managed 73 catches.

2018 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

February 20th, 2018 at 12:13am CST by Zachary Links

Starting today, NFL teams will be able to place franchise and transition tags on potential free agents for the first time. While the window for franchise tags is open, most clubs won’t actually tag any players right away.

As our list of important dates for the 2018 offseason shows, the deadline for teams to assign those tags doesn’t come until Tuesday, March 6. Usually, when it comes to NFL contract discussions, deadlines spur action, so teams will wait until that deadline approaches to officially use franchise tags, once it becomes clear that they won’t be able to strike a longer-term deal yet with their respective free-agents-to-be.

Even though the action might not heat up for a couple more weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at what to expect during 2018’s franchise tag period. The NFL hasn’t officially announced the salary cap figure for 2017, but OverTheCap.com recently projected the 2018 franchise tag salaries based on a presumed $178MM cap. Here are the expected non-exclusive franchise tag amounts:

Quarterback: $23.09MM
Running back: $11.72MM
Wide receiver: $16.23MM
Tight end: $10.36MM
Offensive line: $14.54MM
Defensive end: $17.52MM
Defensive tackle: $14.53MM
Linebacker: $15.47MM
Cornerback: $14.88MM
Safety: $11.08MM
Punter/kicker: $5.06MM

(For a refresher on the characteristics of the exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags, as well as the transition tag, be sure to check out PFR’s glossary entry on the subject.)

Here’s our look at the most likely candidates to be tagged, along with several more outside possibilities:

Virtual Locks:

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: Last offseason, things got pretty weird between the Steelers and Bell. Just before the deadline to extend franchise tagged players, the Steelers believed that they had agreed on a five-year offer worth roughly $60MM. Ultimately, Bell backed out because he did not find the guarantees and cash flow to be to his liking. Soon after, friend and former teammate Ike Taylor said that Bell wanted a contract that reflects his performance as both a No. 1 back and a No. 2 receiver – something in the neighborhood of $15MM per year. This year, Bell topped his 75 catch total with 85 grabs, so one has to imagine that his position hasn’t changed. Despite some retirement threats in January, Bell has indicated that talks are going better this time around. Here’s where things get interesting – the Steelers say that today (Feb. 20) is the “deadline” for a long-term deal to get signed. If not, they’ll go ahead and franchise tag him for a second consecutive season, leaving Bell with a one-year, $14.5MM pact when factoring in the 20% increase. Will Bell buckle and sign a deal that isn’t quite to his satisfaction? In theory, the running back could abstain from offseason activities and even reboot retirement talk in an effort to get the Steelers to cave and abide by the real extension deadline on July 16.
Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Cowboys: It has already been reported that the Cowboys will go ahead and tag Lawrence to prevent him from reaching free agency. Once that happens, you can expect the cash-strapped Cowboys to get to work on an extension that will smooth out the $17.5MM cap hit for defensive ends. There won’t be much drama as to whether the Cowboys will or won’t tag Lawrence, but the subsequent multi-year negotiations will be interesting to watch. Lawrence had a rocky first three seasons in the NFL, but he stepped up big in his contract year with 14.5 sacks. The Cowboys must be willing to pay Lawrence like a top DE, but they may insist on protections like an easy escape hatch or heavy roster bonuses in the event that he is injured or suspended.

Strong Candidates:

Sammy Watkins, WR, Rams: As our own Micah Powell explained on Sunday, Watkins is a candidate for the tag with mutual interest on both sides in continuing their union. Committing major dollars to Watkins is dicey, however, given his injury history and his somewhat disappointing stat line in 2017. If the Rams let Watkins hit the open market, they’ll risk losing him to other teams with more wiggle room under the salary cap. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. And in a weak crop of free agent wide receivers, Watkins could clean up and leave the Rams without an obvious replacement.
Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars: Tagging Watkins will be a tough call for the Rams and the Jaguars have a similarly difficult decision to make when it comes to Robinson. Robinson played only three snaps in 2017 before going down with a torn ACL and he didn’t set the world on fire in 2016. However, his 2015 performance – 80 catches, 1,400 yards, and a league-leading 14 touchdowns – makes it hard for Jacksonville to let him walk. In theory, the Jaguars could re-sign fellow free agent Marqise Lee and let Robinson go, but Robinson is clearly the more talented of the two and one could argue that Lee’s late-season emergence was fueled by advantageous matchups. It’ll be pricey, but the Jaguars are suddenly in position to win and they can’t afford to let one of their best weapons bolt.

Toss Up:

Kyle Fuller, CB, Bears: Frankly, I’m conflicted on this one. I’m sure Bears GM Ryan Pace can relate. Fuller turned in a strong rookie campaign and an excellent contract year, but he was a victim of the sophomore jinx and an unfortunate knee injury which cost him his entire season as an NFL junior. Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com hears that Fuller will not be with the Bears this year. But, considering that Fuller graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 22 ranked cornerback and the position is already a major area of need for the team, the Bears have to at least think about tagging him for $14.88MM.
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Lions: Ansah has performed pretty well over the last two seasons, despite playing through some serious pain. The Lions probably aren’t thrilled about extending a one-year, $17.5MM tender to Ansah, but pressure generating edge rushers like him are at a premium. Consider this: Ansah tallied 12 sacks last year despite knee, ankle, and back ailments. Only seven players topped that total: Chandler Jones, Calais Campbell, DeMarcus Lawrence, Everson Griffen, Cam Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, and Joey Bosa.
Case Keenum, QB, Vikings: Is one year as an elite quarterback enough to justify the franchise tag? Maybe, but the Vikings have options at their disposal, including two other pending free agents already on the roster. If the Vikings can’t retain Keenum or Bradford or Bridgewater with a reasonable multi-year deal between now and free agency, they can use their mountain of cap space to get involved in the Cousins sweepstakes.
Sheldon Richardson, DT, Seahawks: The Jets had both Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson under contract, but they could only afford to pay one of the two defensive linemen. Clearly, they chose wrong. For all of the headaches that Richardson gave the team, the five-year, $86MM deal given to Wilkerson wound up being a monumental mistake and will continue to be an albatross for the Jets even after they cut him this offseason. The Seahawks gave up a second-round choice and wide receiver Jermaine Kearse to get Richardson – will they make the same mistake and let him get away? Perhaps not, but it would also be a major gamble to tag him at $14.5MM with limited cap space and other holes to address. The best course of action here may be to try and work out a fresh deal without the franchise tag as a floor for Richardson’s camp. If that fails and the two sides can’t come to terms, the Seahawks can at least collect a 2019 compensatory pick.

Long Shots:

Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins: Team president Bruce Allen has intimated that the Redskins could tag Cousins in an effort to get something for him via trade. Could the Redskins be that petty when it comes to Cousins? Yes, absolutely. But the Redskins would be taking on a monumental risk by applying the tag to him when they already have Alex Smith penciled in as their starter. Cousins also feels that he has a strong grievance case against Washington if he is cuffed, so the Redskins could wind up hurting their own flexibility during the most important part of the offseason for absolutely nothing.
Andrew Norwell, OG, Panthers: Heading into this week, our feeling was that Norwell was a very strong candidate for the tag. But, on Monday night, Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer learned that the Panthers are not expected to use their franchise tag on any player. Norwell, a former UDFA, has established himself as one of the very best guards in the NFL. This year, he set new personal watermarks in advanced analytics and graded out as the No. 3 ranked OG in the league, per Pro Football Focus. If the Panthers do not tag him and do not find a way to retain him before mid-March, he could be a goner. Old friend Dave Gettleman, who has roughly $24.5MM in cap space to work with, would pounce at the chance to add Norwell to the Giants’ offensive line.
Star Lotulelei, DE, Panthers: Again, the Panthers are not expected to use the tag. If they change their minds on that front, they’d probably lean towards using it on Norwell anyway. With limited cap room to work with, Carolina will likely allow Lotulelei to leave while giving a larger role to 2016 first-round pick Vernon Butler.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins: In December, Landry’s agent asked the Dolphins for a deal worth about $14MM annually with $30MM in guarantees. As of late January, the ‘Fins have not come to the table with a counter offer. The Dolphins could surprise us and keep Landry in place with the tag, but right now it doesn’t feel all that likely. The wide receiver has told those close to him that he doesn’t expect to return to Miami, so he could be in position to be the highest-paid wide receiver in this year’s free agent crop. A word of caution to Landry and agent Damarius Bilbo: Alshon Jeffery, Terrelle Pryor, and Kenny Britt reportedly believed that they were in line for $12MM/year offers last year. Jeffery and Pryor both had to settle for one-year, eight-figure pillow contracts (with drastically different results, of course). Britt got an AAV of just $8.1MM on a four-year deal, and that failure will be fresh in the mind of any team exploring Landry.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins , TE, Jets: The Jets reportedly offered ASJ a two-year, $8MM deal, which he rejected. The one-year tag ($9.8MM) is worth more than the total of that two-year offer, so it seems highly unlikely that Gang Green will take the plunge. Seferian-Jenkins had his best career year with 50 catches for 357 yards and three TDs, but the Jets reportedly won’t go overboard to retain him.
Justin Pugh, OG, Giants: Pugh is perhaps the longest of the longshots listed here. He is included only because of the Giants’ serious need up front and the dearth of quality interior linemen in this year’s free agent class. In theory, the Giants could overpay to put a placeholder on him, but we don’t expect the new regime to go that route, particularly since he didn’t grade out well in his injury-shorted 2017. If the Giants want to apply the tag to Pugh, it will be interesting to see how he is classified since he has also spent time at tackle.

Latest On Jaguars WR Allen Robinson

February 16th, 2018 at 6:36pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Allen Robinson played only three snaps in 2017 before going down with a torn ACL, but the Jaguars wide receiver — and pending free agent — is adamant that he’ll be available for the beginning of the 2018 campaign.

“It’s not like one of those things where it happened at the end of the year,” Robinson said on SiriusXM NFL Radio (Twitter links). “I’ll be cleared well before the season starts and well before training camp. Every team across the league knows what I’ve done in this league and what I’m capable of so that’s not really an issue.”

Jacksonville would like to retain Robinson, who will hit the open market at the age of 24, tweets Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link), and the franchise tag could come into play. Despite his injury, Robinson is one of the top wideouts available, and joins Jarvis Landry and Sammy Watkins as the best free agent pass-catchers. A franchise tender for Robinson would cost about $16.2MM, but it would give the Jaguars the opportunity to hold onto Robinson without committing for multiple years.

Robinson broke out during the 2015 campaign (his second in the NFL) by posting 80 receptions, 1,400 yards, and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. The next year was something of a down season, although he still managed 73 catches.

Allen Robinson Done For Season

September 11th, 2017 at 5:13pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Jacksonville crushed AFC South rival Houston to open the season on Sunday, but if the Jaguars are going to continue to thrive in 2017, they’ll have to do it without their top wide receiver. The team confirmed Monday that Allen Robinson suffered a torn ACL in his left knee Sunday and will miss the remainder of the season, per the Associated Press.

This seemed like the probable outcome for Robinson after he went down with a non-contact injury in the first quarter against the Texans and was quickly ruled out for the rest of the game. While the Robinson-less Jaguars still managed to coast to a 29-7 victory, having to make do without him for the remainder of the year will be a tall order.

Robinson posted at least 73 catches, 151 targets, 883 yards and six touchdowns in each of the previous two years, for one, and the Jags’ receiving corps already took a hit earlier this month when they placed rookie fourth-round pick Dede Westbrook on injured reserve. They’re now down to Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns, the latter of whom has fallen out of favor since last season, as their top options in a passing game that doesn’t inspire much confidence with Blake Bortles at the helm.

The 24-year-old Robinson, meanwhile, may have played his final game as a member of the Jaguars. The 2014 second-round pick is scheduled to hit free agency after the season and could’ve made a case for a monster contract with another big year. Instead, thanks to his knee injury, he’ll enter the offseason in a less-than-ideal position.

Jaguars WR Allen Robinson Has ACL Injury

September 10th, 2017 at 6:50pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Jaguars wideout Allen Robinson suffered a “significant” knee injury during today’s game against the Texans, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com (Twitter link), and Jacksonville fears Robinson has a torn ACL, tweets Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. The Jaguars have now officially confirmed that Robinson has an ACL injury to his left knee, and head coach Doug Marrone will provide a further update on Monday.

While details are slim as of yet, Robinson went down early with a non-contact injury, struggled to make it to the sideline, and was quickly ruled out for the remainder of today’s contest. While further test results will surely leak out, an ACL injury appeared to be the most obvious diagnosis.

Jacksonville already lost one wideout prior to the season, as the club placed rookie pass-catcher Dede Westbrook on injured reserve with a “core” injury. But the absence of Robinson — clearly Jacksonville’s most talented wide receiver — would represent a much more serious loss. Even in a down 2016, Robinson posted 73 receptions and six scores, while he managed 80 catches, 1,400 yards, and a league-leading 14 touchdown receptions the year prior.

Without Robinson, the Jaguars would turn to Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns as their top two wide receivers, with Arrelious Benn and Keelan Cole available behind that duo. Amba Etta-Tawo, currently on Jacksonville’s practice squad, could be promoted, while the Jags could also consider a free agent. Players such as Victor Cruz (whom the Jaguars hosted earlier this year), Vincent Jackson, Stevie Johnson, and Marquess Wilson are among the options available on the open market.

Alternatively, Jacksonville could lean even more heavily on the running game, something they did in today’s victory over the Texans. Rookie running back Leonard Fournette handled 26 carries on Sunday, while backup Chris Ivory rushed nine times. Quarterback Blake Bortles attempted only 21 passes, but the Jaguars had the benefit of leading early versus Houston.

Robinson’s injury could also have an unfortunate impact on any potential extension negotiations. The 24-year-old Robinson is scheduled to become a free agent next spring, and while he’s discussed a long-term deal with the Jaguars, nothing has been signed. If he’s out for the rest of the year, Robinson will hit the open market with an uncertain medical history, possibly forcing him into accepting a short-term pact.

Jaguars, Allen Robinson Talking Extension

July 25th, 2017 at 8:29pm CST by Dallas Robinson

After making Brandon Linder the highest-paid center in the league earlier today, the Jaguars could turn their attention to another offensive player entering his contract year, as wide receiver Allen Robinson says he’s discussed a new deal with the club, according to Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union.

Because he wasn’t a first-round draft choice, Robinson can’t be controlled via the fifth-year option, so he’ll become an unrestricted free agent next spring. The Jaguars, who are likely going to carry over more than $40MM in cap space to 2018, will have the ability to use the franchise tag on Robinson, but that will come at a cost north of $16MM. A long-term contract which flattens Robinson’s cap charges and gives him financial security, then, is in the best interests of both parties.

Robinson, who will turn 24 years old next month, broke out in 2015 by hauling in 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. Last season wasn’t as kind, as Robinson — not helped by quarterback Blake Bortles‘ poor play — regressed to fewer than 900 yards receiving and eight scores. Still, Robinson said earlier this year that he’s “earned” an extension from the Jaguars.

Jacksonville already locked up its No. 2 receiver last summer, inking Allen Hurns to a four years, $40.05MM deal that included $16MM in guarantees. Robinson should be able to easily top both those figures, and could conceivably hit $14-15MM — the range earned by the likes of A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Dez Bryant — if he rebounds next season.

Allen Robinson: I’ve “Earned” Jags Extension

April 16th, 2017 at 4:35pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson is entering the final year of his rookie contract which will pay him just south of $900K for the 2017 campaign, and he believes he’s “earned” an extension from Jacksonville, according to Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union. Still, Robinson doesn’t sound as though he’ll hold out or use any other negotiating tactics in order to secure a long-term deal.

“If we get something done, we do and if not, I have a big year coming ahead for me and I have an obligation to my teammates to play at a high level,” Robinson said.

The Jaguars have already extended fellow pass-catcher Allen Hurns, handing him a four-year, $40.05MM deal after only two seasons. Hurns only had to wait two years to earn a long-term deal given that he was originally an undrafted free agent, while Robinson — a drafted player (second round) — had to finish his third NFL season before becoming eligible for a new deal.

The Hurns deal is a clear floor for Robinson, who has eclipsed Hurns’ production since entering the league in 2014 and is easily viewed as Jacksonville’s No. 1 wideout. Robinson, 23, posted a breakout campaign in 2015, hauling in 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns. 2016 was a down year, however, as Robinson managed only 73 catches, 883 yards, and six scores (quarterback Blake Bortles‘ decline certainly didn’t help Robinson).

While Hurns’ $10MM annual average is the bare minimum asking price for Robinson, he’ll certainly target a higher total. Antonio Brown recently reset the wide receiver market with a $17MM AAV, and A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, and T.Y. Hilton are all earning $13MM or more per season.