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Poll: Best Acquisition On Deadline Day?

October 31st, 2018 at 6:29pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In 2014, the year Pro Football Rumors was established, there were 23 NFL trades that involved veteran players (ie. deals that didn’t simply involve teams moving up and down the board on draft day). Just four years later, that number has more than doubled, as the league has seen 61 deals go down since the league year opened in March.

There are myriad reasons why the NFL is becoming a more trade-happy league, and Andrew Brandt of Sports Illustrated outlined several of them yesterday: younger general managers that are more comfortable making swaps; gobs of cap space; and the NFL’s decision to move the trade deadline back by two weeks. Whatever the explanation, it certainly makes the league more fun on deadline day.

Five trades occurred on Tuesday, with five contending clubs making what can only be described as win-now moves. Let’s take a look at each deal before deciding which team made the best acquisition at the deadline:

Texans acquired WR Demaryius Thomas and a 2019 seventh-round pick from the Broncos in exchange for a 2019 fourth-round pick and a 2019 seventh-round pick.

  • Houston needed another pass-catcher after losing Will Fuller to a torn ACL, and while the 30-year-old Thomas isn’t exactly a perfect replacement for the speedy Fuller, he’ll give head coach Bill O’Brien and quarterback Deshaun Watson another option as they look to build on their five-game win streak. Thomas was the only player acquired on Tuesday who is signed beyond the 2018 season, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll stick with the Texans next year barring a contract restructure. He’s due a $14MM base salary in 2019, which seems untenable for a player whose production has dipped in recent campaigns.

Eagles acquired WR Golden Tate from the Lions in exchange for a 2019 third-round pick.

  • Nelson Agholor has been among the least productive wide receivers in the NFL this season, ranking next-to-last in Football Outsiders’ DYAR, which measures value over a replacement level player. Tate figures to usurp Agholor in the slot, and the Eagles could now play quite a bit more “11” personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers). To date, Philadelphia has deployed that personnel package on only 54% of plays, fourth-least in the league, per Warren Sharp. Another plus for the Eagles? They don’t have any cap space to use in 2019, and their projected lack of free agent activity almost certainly ensures they’ll reap a compensatory selection in 2020 if Tate leaves via the open market.

Ravens acquired RB Ty Montgomery from the Packers in exchange for a 2020 seventh-round pick.

  • The Montgomery trade is a horse of a different color, as the Packers likely felt forced to deal Montgomery after he allegedly went rogue by taking a kickoff out of the end zone (and subsequently fumbling) against the Rams on Sunday, depriving Aaron Rodgers a chance at a late game comeback. As Michael Silver of NFL.com detailed, Green Bay veterans were understandably flabbergasted by Montgomery’s decision, so his departure could be viewed as addition by subtraction. That doesn’t mean Montgomery can’t be effective for the Ravens, however, as he can contribute in the passing game, the running game, and on special teams.

Rams acquired LB/DE Dante Fowler from the Jaguars in exchange for a 2019 third-round pick and a 2020 fifth-round pick.

  • The Rams didn’t exactly need more help getting after opposing quarterbacks given that they’ve managed a league-high 39.2% pressure rate. Los Angeles is getting most of that pressure from the interior (see: Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh), but outside linebackers Samson Ebukam and Matt Longacre are also playing well despite not being household names. Fowler, the third overall pick in the 2015 draft, is in the midst of his best season to date, and he’ll now likely be asked to rush from a stand-up, outside ‘backer position instead of his usual 4-3 defensive end spot. Jacksonville had already declined Fowler’s 2019 fifth-year option, so the Rams don’t have to worry about another high salary hitting their books next year.

Redskins acquired S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from the Packers in exchange for a 2019 fourth-round pick.

  • In terms of player-for-player upgrade, perhaps no team did better on Tuesday than the Redskins. Clinton-Dix, who ranks as Pro Football Focus‘ fifth-best safety in 2018, will be replacing Montae Nicholson, whom PFF grades a bottom-three defensive back league-wide. Washington already ranks ninth in pass defense DVOA, and the club only figures to improve after acquiring Clinton-Dix from Green Bay. Clinton-Dix is scheduled to become a free agent next spring, and while he almost certainly wouldn’t agree to an extension before hitting the open market, the Redskins do have the option of using the franchise tag to keep him around. Washington doesn’t have any other obvious franchise tender candidates, and the salary for safeties should only be worth ~$10MM.

So what do you think? Which team made the best acquisition on Tuesday? Vote below and leave your additional thoughts in the comments section! (Link for app users.)

Poll: Should Broncos Be Sellers?

October 27th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Entering a crucial Week 8 game in Kansas City in which the Chiefs are 10-point favorites, the Broncos may be on the verge of a tough decision.

A loss to the Chiefs would drop them to 3-5 and behind in a pursuit of their first playoff berth since winning Super Bowl 50. What makes Denver’s case interesting is the number of veterans from that championship season the team still has in key roles who are attractive trade chips.

Beyond Von Miller, who should be considered untouchable, the Broncos’ defense relies on versatile All-Pro cornerback Chris Harris and longtime starters Derek Wolfe and Brandon Marshall. Denver’s starting wide receivers — Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders — are in their fifth season together. Bradley Roby and Shane Ray are both in contract years. Each has played key roles for the Broncos for years, Roby in particular.

Even if the Broncos play out the season trying to creep back into the playoff picture, how many of these players will be on the 2019 team? Denver does rank a surprising fifth in DVOA and has a softer second-half schedule. But even after a 45-10 win over the Cardinals, the Broncos are just 2-9 on the road during Vance Joseph‘s tenure. This makes a late-season run appear difficult.

Thomas is probably the most interesting case. He may be the second-best wideout in Broncos history, behind Rod Smith, and remains a useful contributor. But Sanders (603 receiving yards) is on pace for his best season since his Peyton Manning-aided 2014 slate, sliding Thomas (372 yards) into the No. 2 role Sanders played for years. Thomas also has a $17.5MM 2019 cap number, much higher than Sanders’ $12.9MM figure. This, and emerging second-rounder Courtland Sutton, point to Thomas almost certainly not being part of the 2019 Broncos.

But how much could Denver get for its high-priced, soon-to-be 31-year-old wideout? Unlike a Roby, Ray or Shaquil Barrett free agency departure, the Broncos couldn’t land a compensatory pick for Thomas. Trading him before Tuesday’s 3pm CT deadline would make sense if the Broncos don’t believe they can realistically compete this season.

On the other hand, Denver’s struggled for years to find a viable wideout behind Thomas and Sanders. Sutton (17.6 yards per catch) has provided that. Trading Thomas would weaken an offense that already doesn’t have much at tight end and depends on a lower-tier starting quarterback. Denver could also shop Thomas in the offseason, though the compensation likely would be minimal.

Teams are more interested in Sanders, but the 31-year-old wideout is a better bet to be on the 2019 team in the final season of a three-year, $33MM deal. Denver appears open to dealing Thomas.

Suitors are also inquiring about Harris, but that would gut a Broncos defense that doesn’t have the cornerback depth it possessed for years. Pro Football Focus has Harris again among its top-10 corners, and he has another season remaining on an affordable, five-year, $42.5MM deal. It’s possible Harris could join Miller as a defensive cornerstone into the 2020s, with Roby’s status beyond 2018 uncertain. That would probably be more valuable to the Broncos than the mid- or late-round draft capital they’d acquire in exchange for the 29-year-old corner.

A fifth-year starter, Marshall may be in his final games as a Bronco. Fourth-round rookie Josey Jewell could take over as a starter next season at a rate obviously much cheaper than Marshall’s $9MM 2019 cap number. Playing on a $8.5MM fifth-year option, Roby’s drawn interest, too. No substantial extension talks are known to have taken place. Ray’s high ankle sprain likely will keep him in Denver throughout his contract year.

With two games against the Chargers, and matchups against the Steelers and Bengals, still on the Broncos’ docket, should they be ready to deal non-essential cogs if they lose to the Chiefs? Or, does Denver’s DVOA position indicate a late-season turnaround is possible, making an all-hands-on-deck approach worthwhile?

Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Most Important Game Of Week 8?

October 25th, 2018 at 7:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

We’re nearly at the halfway mark of the 2018 season, and Week 8 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?

For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Rams and Chiefs are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 5% playoff leverage). The Jets, Browns, Bills, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, and 49ers will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.

But for other clubs, Week 8 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:

  • Seattle Seahawks (27%) at Detroit Lions (15%) = 42%
  • Miami Dolphins (18%) at Houston Texans (20%) = 38%
  • Baltimore Ravens (16%) at Carolina Panthers (21%) = 37%
  • New Orleans Saints (14%) at Minnesota Vikings (22%) = 36%
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12%) at Cincinnati Bengals (18%) = 30%
  • Philadelphia Eagles (17%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11%) = 28%

Other Week 10 contests aren’t included here for various reasons. The Steelers have high postseason probability leverage (24%) against the Browns, but the contest is essentially meaningless on Cleveland’s end, as the Browns have little chance of earning a playoff berth. The Rams/Packers game, meanwhile, figures to be an exciting contest, but nearly all the leverage is with Green Bay (24%).

It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Ravens — who face a 16% PPL — lose to the Panthers on Sunday, they’ll still have a greater than 65% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Dolphins, while facing a similar PPL to the Ravens (18%), will have roughly a one-in-ten chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Texans. If Miami wins, that number rises to about 30%.

So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Seahawks/Lions the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Saints/Vikings mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section!

Poll: Who Will Giants Trade Next?

October 24th, 2018 at 9:46pm CST by Sam Robinson

Sitting at 1-6 for a second straight season, the Giants unloaded two members of their starting defense — Eli Apple and Damon Harrison — and collected three draft choices. Are more moves on the way?

Nearly a week remains until the trade deadline. Dave Gettleman determined the Giants had a chance at a much better season than they did in Jerry Reese‘s final campaign and, instead of taking Eli Manning‘s successor at No. 2 overall, the new GM attempted to build for one last run around the 15th-year starter. With that having backfired, it will be tough for the Giants to win many more games due to the team having stripped away two key pieces.

But will they continue to make moves and weaken this year’s team? It appears they will. Word out of the Big Apple is the Giants are open to dealing anyone on their defense for the right price.

Veterans like Manning and Janoris Jenkins don’t look to factor into the next era of Giants football, and other prominent veterans may not, either. Trade buzz has surrounded Jenkins this week. He’s playing on a reworked deal that pushed some money onto future cap figures (both of his 2019 and ’20 cap hits are now $14.75MM) but is a proven cover man signed for 2 1/2 more seasons.

Gettleman brought in Alec Ogletree (a captain in his first season with the team) after Reese neglected the off-ball linebacker positions for years. He’s only 27 and could be a defensive centerpiece for future Giants teams. But he would draw interest, though maybe not too much due to a $10.5MM-per-year contract. Olivier Vernon missed this season’s first five games due to a hamstring injury. This and his $17MM-AAV contract may not put New York in position to recoup much in return. But the Giants did trade Jason Pierre-Paul, and Vernon, too, was brought in to play in a 4-3 defense.

What about Landon Collins? One of Reese’s best draft picks is in a contract year and could be a franchise tag candidate and could also be re-signed to anchor future Giants secondaries. Though, no notable extension talks are known to have taken place. Or, this fire sale may continue with homegrown young talent. That would naturally shift the conversation to Odell Beckham Jr.

Beckham is signed through the 2023 season on a wideout-record five-year, $90MM extension. He has brought more drama since a lower-maintenance offseason, prompting co-owner John Mara to express disappointment at the soon-to-be 26-year-old receiver’s recent comments, but remains an elite target in his prime. The Giants were asking for two first-round picks for Beckham when he was attached to his fifth-year option. What would they take now that the three-time Pro Bowler’s signed to a top-market contract?

A no-trade clause is built into the extension Manning signed in 2015. He said last year his intent remained to finish his career with the Giants and this week said he’s not thinking about a trade. There wouldn’t be many suitors, given Manning’s contract and performance level thus far this season, and the Tom Coughlin-led Jaguars are not believed to be interested.

Recent Reese draftees like Dalvin Tomlinson and Sterling Shepard have produced as multiyear starters and profile as pieces the Giants will work with going forward, but if the new regime moved them, they’d bring back some more draft capital for choices the current Giants regime can make.

So, who will be the next Giant dealt? Or has the franchise already made its moves? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Who Will Win AFC South?

October 20th, 2018 at 8:35pm CST by Sam Robinson

Although the AFC South has seen repeat champions this decade, the division’s post-Peyton Manning years have not produced a similar perpetual frontrunner. This season’s unfolding on a familiar course.

Going into Week 7, three AFC South teams — the Jaguars, Titans and Texans — are 3-3. The Colts probably have the division’s best quarterback, but they’re 1-5 and on a rebuilding track. This could be shaping up to be a complicated race as we enter the midseason stretch.

Jacksonville came into the season as the division’s favorite, but the past two games — when the Chiefs and Cowboys combined to outscore the Jaguars 70-21 — leave this division more in doubt than it looked entering October. With Blake Bortles‘ inconsistency continuing into his fifth season, the Jags continue to depend on their defense. But that unit’s not quite on the unassailable perch on which it hovered last season — when a group housing mostly the same personnel led the league in DVOA.

That metric still has this Jaguar defense sitting fifth, but will a merely good defense be enough to lift a Bortles-led offense that doesn’t have much in the way of weaponry? (Though, a Leonard Fournette–Carlos Hyde backfield may look formidable if Fournette can shake off his hamstring injury.) The Jags already lost at home to the Titans and now has the Texans coming to town in what will be a pivotal spot for both teams.

When I examined this division’s similar outlook around the midway point last season, Deshaun Watson was days away from the ACL tear that sank the Texans. He’s off his stratospheric pace from last year, which was to be expected, but has absorbed by far the most sacks (25) and hits (65) any quarterback’s sustained this season. Houston did not outfit its franchise centerpiece with a strong offensive line, and Watson doesn’t have much in the way of a running game, either.

The Texans will need to improve in these areas to be a legitimate AFC contender, but they have won three straight and again have the services of a healthy J.J. Watt, who is putting together a defensive player of the year case and leading a top-10 DVOA unit.

Tennessee’s probably trudging into Week 7 on the lowest note of this division’s contenders, having completed a historically futile effort in Baltimore. Marcus Mariota took 11 sacks, tied for the second-most in NFL history, despite his first-string line being fully available. The fourth-year quarterback has not built on the strong performance he delivered to help the Titans to an overtime win over the Eagles. He’s thrown two touchdown passes this season, is averaging only 158.3 passing yards per game and is 23rd in Total QBR.

The Titans have struggled to replace Delanie Walker‘s reliable presence, and their Dion Lewis–Derrick Henry tandem has sputtered (neither averages more than 3.3 yards per carry) thus far, putting Mariota in a tough spot Sunday in London and running the risk of the Titans falling below .500 after a 3-1 start.

Andrew Luck‘s return should be viewed as the top positive takeaway for the Colts, whose roster didn’t indicate they were especially interested in 2018 contention. Can they rebound and mount something of a challenge in a division without a current winning record, or are they stampeding toward another high draft choice?

It’s obviously still early in the season, but is one of these teams about to separate from the competition and become the kind of contender that can challenge the Patriots or Chiefs? The Jags already beat the Pats, but the latter has obviously proven far more as a perpetual AFC contender and will be treated as such despite the Week 2 result.

So, who has the best chance of putting together a run in the South? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your views in the comments section.

Choose Your 2019 Free Agent Pass Rusher

October 18th, 2018 at 6:51pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The 2019 free agent edge rushing class should thank Khalil Mack — by not caving in Oakland and eventually garnering a $23.5MM/year contract from the Bears, Mack reset the market for pass rushers. As Joel Corry of CBSSports.com recently noted, $20MM per season for star edge defenders is now the “new norm.” 2019 free agency will bring an excellent crop of available defensive ends/outside linebackers, and while the list of players on the open market will certainly change by next spring thanks to extensions and franchise tags, there should be plenty of talent to go around. If your team needs someone to get after the quarterback, 2019 is the time to attack.

Let’s take a look at the market as a whole, which I’ve sorted into a few different tiers:

Open your checkbook

Each of these players will be a legitimate candidate for the franchise tag in 2019, although the salary amounts would vary. Clark and Flowers would be tendered as defensive ends, which should net them one-year salaries of roughly $17.5MM. Clowney and Ford, however, would likely be tagged as linebackers thanks to the NFL’s archaic franchise system, which differentiates between defensive ends and outside ‘backers. The linebacker franchise tender is expected to be worth approximately $16.325MM, per Corry. Lawrence, meanwhile, would be on his second consecutive franchise tag, meaning his salary would increase by 20% to $20.572MM. The Cowboys star has indicated he won’t play under another tag, but unless he takes the Le’Veon Bell route, he won’t have much of a choice.

Ford, particularly, is incredibly intriguing: while he’s the oldest member of the group at age-27, he’s come out of nowhere to post the most productive campaign of his career. Per Evan McPhillips of Pro Football Focus, Ford currently ranks first in both total pressures and quarterback hits. Will a pass-rush needy club overlook Ford’s spotty track record in the hope that he’s a long-term answer on the edge? (Link for app users.)

Old, reliable

Graham and Wake should almost get their own category, as they’re (historically) far better than the other three players listed here. Graham has steadily improved throughout his career and currently grades as Pro Football Focus‘ No. 3 edge rusher, but he’ll be 31 years old when next season gets underway. Last time he was a free agent (entering his age-26 campaign), Graham only received a four-year deal with an annual value of $6.5MM. He’ll get more this time around thanks to his production and the rising salary cap, but he may not be able to break the bank. PFR’s Zach Links examined Graham’s case for a contract extension earlier this year.

Wake, too, presents an age concern, as he’s already 36 years old. That hasn’t stopped him from topping double-digit sacks in three of the past four seasons, however, and he tied for sixth in sacks during that time. Wake has been pretty healthy during his career save for an Achilles injury in 2015, but he’s currently sidelined after surgery for a meniscus trim. He’s close to returning to game action, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, and which point Wake will only further his free agent case. (Link for app users.)

Injured at the wrong time

Injury question marks have dogged Ansah in the past, but he’s already a lock to miss the most games of his career this season, as he hasn’t played since the Lions’ opener while dealing with a shoulder issue. Streaky is the perfect word to define Ansah, especially given that he’s capable of double-digit sack totals in any given year (14.5 in 2015, 12 in 2017) but also posts down seasons (just two sacks in 2016). Age is also working against Ziggy: he entered the league as an older prospect (24) in 2013, and he’ll now be hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season. A one-year pact, for far less than the $17.143MM franchise tender amount he’s making this season, appears likely.

Something left in the tank?

Will all three of these players be in the NFL in 2019? Matthews certainly will be, but it may not be with the Packers, as at least one recent report indicated the Packers would not seek to re-sign Matthews if the season ended today. Suggs, meanwhile, also appears primed to return next season. In May, Suggs said he plans to spend additional seasons in a Ravens uniform, and he made the Pro Bowl as recently as 2017. Peppers is the true question mark, as he’s already 38 years old and underwent shoulder surgery over the offseason. If Peppers does come back in 2019, it’s hard to imagine him playing anywhere other than Carolina. (Link for app users.)

Take a chance on me

There are a number of intriguing options in this tier, but I want to focus on the two Smiths. Za’Darius Smith had a coming out party on Sunday against the Titans, posting five tackles, three sacks, and a forced fumble in Baltimore’s domination of Tennessee, and was subsequently named the AFC’s defensive player of the week. He’s also tied for eighth in the NFL with 10 quarterback hits, and he’s only played 258 defensive snaps. As Suggs inches close to retirement, Smith has a chance to become the next great Ravens pass rusher. But as Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic notes, Baltimore has allowed other defenders — Paul Kruger, Pernell McPhee — to leave via free agency in the past, so there’s no guarantee Smith will be back in Baltimore.

Preston Smith is interesting simply because of his reliability. He’s started 37 consecutive games since becoming a full-time player in 2016, he’s played more snaps than anyone in this section aside from Za’Darius Smith. Given that other high-upside players such as Fowler and Lynch have dealt with off-field issues, while Fowler and Ray have been hampered by injuries, Smith’s day-in, day-out approach could entice a team to overpay. (Link for app users.)

The outlier

We won’t blame you if you’re not even sure who Hunt is. The 53rd overall selection in the 2013 draft, Hunt managed only 1.5 sacks over four disappointing seasons with the Bengals before joining the Colts in 2017. Last year was much of the same for the Estonia native, but this year, at the age of 31, Hunt has seemingly figured something out. He’s already posted four sacks on the season, and he’s also tied with the Vikings’ Danielle Hunter for most tackles for loss (9). As Justis Mosqueda of Optimum Scouting details below, Hunt is an all-new player:

https://twitter.com/JuMosq/status/1052346003573993472

If he continues this production for the rest of the season, what kind of contract is Hunt looking at? I’m dubious that most clubs would be willing to give a player with little-to-no track record, who’s entering his age-32 campaign, a multi-year deal. With more than half of the 2018 season left to go, Hunt could potentially fall back to his prior level of performance, but if he doesn’t, it’s possible he could command double-digits next spring.

Poll: Should The Browns Try To Trade Tyrod Taylor?

October 18th, 2018 at 9:32am CST by Zachary Links

On Thursday, Browns head coach Hue Jackson told reporters there have been no discussions about trading quarterback Tyrod Taylor before the Oct. 30 deadline. When pressed further, Jackson shrugged off the notion that Taylor would not finish the year in Cleveland. 

“I do [expect him to be with the Browns all season], until someone tells me something differently,” Jackson said. “He is our backup quarterback.”

For his part, Taylor admits that he’s frustrated with his No. 2 QB role, but he refuses to complain to management or demand a trade. It’s not hard to read between the lines and see that Taylor would prefer to be a starter elsewhere rather than Baker Mayfield‘s clipboard holder in Cleveland.

Taylor has just one year to go on his deal, which would make him a logical rental for another club. The Browns would also save a bundle by moving him. Taylor has already collected on his $6MM roster bonus, but a trade would allow them to escape the prorated portion of his $10MM base salary.

The trouble is, there may not be a robust market for Taylor’s services. The Dolphins will be without Ryan Tannehill for an unknown period of time, but they have every reason to stick with Brock Osweiler after last week’s OT victory over the Bears. The Bills, in theory, could use a QB while Josh Allen heals up from a UCL injury, but it’s hard to picture that reunion going down.

If the rest of the league would utilize Taylor as a strong backup quarterback rather than a starter, it’s hard to see the Browns getting much of a return. The Jets got a third-round pick for Teddy Bridgewater in August, but Bridgewater had a first-round pedigree and a much cheaper contract. Moving Taylor might not yield much in the way of draft compensation, and it would mean losing out on one of the more talented backups in the NFL.

With all of that in mind, do you think the Browns should trade Taylor before the deadline? Click below to cast your vote and back up your opinion in the comments. (Link for app users.)

Poll: Who Will Be The First Coach To Get Fired?

October 13th, 2018 at 7:44pm CST by Zachary Links

The NFL is not a patient league, and there are several head coaches who could be in jeopardy of losing their jobs if they do not turn things around quickly.

One could argue that Vance Joseph could be on the hottest seat of all after the Broncos lost to the Jets 34-16 last weekend. The season is far from over and the Broncos are far from done at 2-3, but Joseph might not have much time to turn things around after he was already given a reprieve this offseason. CEO Joe Ellis is saying all of the right things in support of Joseph, but the Broncos have some tough games ahead including Sunday against the Rams and Oct. 28 against the red-hot Chiefs. 

However, you may be surprised to learn that online oddsmakers do not view Joseph’s seat as the hottest. That dubious distinction goes to Cowboys coach Jason Garrett, whose decision to punt on 4th-and-1 against the Texans wound up costing Dallas the game. The Cowboys are now 2-3 – putting them above only the lowly Giants in the NFC East – and it’s fair to wonder how much patient owner Jerry Jones will be this year. Jones recently endorsed Garrett by saying that he is the “real deal,” but another questionable loss or two could change his opinion.

When we gauged PFR readers on this topic in July, Bucs coach Dirk Koetter was one of the leading vote-getters. Despite some early-season Fitzmagic working in his favor, the rumblings are starting up again after an ugly blowout loss to the Bears. Questions persist about Jameis Winston’s effectiveness and the Bucs’ defense has allowed a league-high 34.8 points to opponents on average this year, so things will have to change radically in order for Koetter to have some sense of stability.

A few short weeks ago, Texans coach Bill O’Brien was a contender to get the first axe, but he did receive an extension in the offseason and his seat looks a lot cooler after consecutive overtime wins. Hue Jackson is also coming off of an OT win and the Browns are hovering near the .500 mark, so he looking a little bit safer than he was at the start of the season. If you were a betting man considering coaches with longer odds to get canned, you might also look at Adam Gase (Dolphins), Dan Quinn (Falcons), Jay Gruden (Redskins), Ron Rivera (Panthers), Sean McDermott (Bills), and Todd Bowles (Jets).

Click below to make your pick for who will be the first to get a pink slip. Then, you can head to the comment section to back up your choice.

POLL: Should the Cardinals Explore A David Johnson Trade?

October 12th, 2018 at 6:47pm CST by Andrew Ortenberg

As the Cardinals have started the season 1-4 and are in the midst of a rebuild, there’s been a lot of trade rumors surrounding the team. Arizona is reportedly shopping former first-rounders Deone Bucannon and Haason Reddick, and now a more surprising name has emerged as a potential trade candidate. 

Over the course of the week, David Johnson‘s name has been a frequent subject of internet discussion, with many speculating the team could look to deal him as they aren’t in win-now mode. The Eagles, who have also been linked to Le’Veon Bell after Jay Ajayi‘s ACL tear, have been suggested as a possible destination for Johnson.

Johnson has been having a down-year by his standards, and Cardinals offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has taken a lot of flack for not getting Johnson involved more. Johnson thrived in now-retired coach Bruce Arians’ system, where he was often utilized as a receiver. McCoy’s scheme has turned him into more of a between-the-tackles runner, and it hasn’t been a great fit.

Despite the scheme issues, it would still be shocking if Johnson was dealt. Just last month, the team signed him to a huge three-year extension worth $39MM. As former NFL agent and current CBS Sports analyst Joel Corry points out, it wouldn’t make much sense for the team to pay Johnson a massive $12MM signing bonus then deal him months later (Twitter link).

It also wouldn’t seem to make much sense for the Cardinals to trade away the offense’s best weapon as they seek to develop Josh Rosen. Trading away Johnson would take away Rosen’s safety blanket and make life much tougher for the promising rookie.

But as long as the Cardinals continue to lose and until McCoy succeeds in getting Johnson more involved, rumors will likely continue to swirl. It’s likely the Cardinals would seek high draft picks if they did decide to flip him, and it’s unclear if any team would even be willing to play the necessary price.

What do you think? With the team not winning anything this year, should the Cardinals at least listen to offers on Johnson? Vote in the poll below and weigh in down in the comments!

Poll: Who Will Pick First Overall In The 2019 NFL Draft?

October 11th, 2018 at 6:55pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With nearly a third of the 2018 regular season in the books, it’s fair to start looking ahead to the 2019 draft, especially if you’re a fan of a team that’s not looking like a playoff team this year. Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA On the Clock report, let’s take a look at a few teams who could secure the No. 1 overall selection in 2019:

Arizona Cardinals (19.6% chance of No. 1 pick, 61.5% chance of top-five pick)

The Cardinals allowed the Sam Bradford experiment to last for the better part of three games before turning things over to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen, who has appeared competent thus far. David Johnson is an All-Pro talent at running back, but Arizona hasn’t been very creative in its use of him, and he’s faced eight or more defenders in the box on 33.78% of his attempts, 10th-most in the league. The Cardinals are still as a top-10 defense in terms of DVOA (meaning they’re efficient) despite ranking as a bottom-10 unit in both yards allowed and scoring, so continued success on that side of the ball could move Arizona away from the top overall pick.

San Francisco 49ers (18.6%, 59.8%)

The 49ers’ top quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo), running back (Jerick McKinnon) and wide receiver (Marquise Goodwin) have all been injured this year, and each health issue helped push the 49ers’ chances of earning the No. 1 pick upward. With C.J. Beathard now leading San Francisco’s offense, and Alfred Morris taking over in the backfield for the time being while Matt Breida deals with an ankle injury, it’s unclear how many points the 49ers will be able to muster the rest of the way. Pair those offensive problems with a defense that ranks just 26th in adjusted sack rate, and San Francisco could be in the market for a top-five selection in 2019.

Buffalo Bills (13.2%, 56%)

While rookie signal-caller Josh Allen perhaps hasn’t looked as poor as many believed he would, he still ranks second-to-last among quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt. His performance, as well as that of Buffalo’s porous offensive line, has contributed to the Bills ranking dead last in both yards per drive and points per drive. A surprisingly strong defense (and a full-effort approach that speaks well of head coach Sean McDermott) could help push the Bills towards the end of the top-10 picks, but their offense is going to hold them back.

Oakland Raiders (9.3%, 41.7%)

It’s a good thing Jon Gruden landed a 10-year contract because his first season with the Raiders isn’t going as planned. Oakland’s defense is the slowest in the NFL (which perhaps isn’t a surprise given that the Raiders are fielding the league’s oldest roster), and the club’s offense has been hit-or-miss. After trading superstar Khalil Mack, Oakland ranks dead last in sacks and second-to-last in adjusted sack rate. And, as a bonus, the Raiders get to face Patrick Mahomes twice a year for the next decade.

New York Giants (8.1%, 37.1%)

The Giants are the only team in the NFL that has at least a 5% chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick and at least a 10% chance of making the postseason, per Football Outsiders. That’s largely due to the lackluster quality of the NFC East, where no team is over the .500 mark, and New York’s remaining schedule, which ranks as the easiest in the league. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight currently projects the Giants to finish with the NFL’s worst record, so until the NFC East clarifies itself, New York’s outlook is ¯_(ツ)_/¯.

Atlanta Falcons (8%, 35.3%)

The one team on this list that would have been a complete surprise coming into 2018, the Falcons have been decimated on the defensive side of the ball. Starting safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, plus linebacker Deion Jones, are all out for the season after suffering injuries, and Atlanta’s defense has responded in kind, giving up the second-most points in the league on a per-game basis. Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons’ offense can still win shootouts, but Atlanta could be in line to pick within the top-five for the first time since 2008.

So, what do you think? Will one of these teams land the No. 1 overall pick in 2019? Vote below!

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