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Extension Candidate: D.J. Moore

June 27th, 2024 at 9:58pm CST by Adam La Rose

D.J. Moore was a key part of the package the Panthers sent the Bears to acquire the No. 1 pick in 2023. He is attached to a contract which came before the position’s market surged, though, which could put him in line to command a raise in the relatively near future.

Moore, 27, topped 1,100 yards three times during his five-year tenure in Carolina. The Panthers were not looking to move on from him shortly after he inked his current contract, but the fact he was no longer on his rookie deal factored into the Bears’ insistence he was part of the blockbuster swap. Arriving in Chicago as the team’s No. 1 wideout, Moore enjoyed a career year last season.

The former first-rounder set a new personal best in catches (96), yards (1,364) and touchdowns (eight) in 2023 despite the Bears’ QB situation being less than ideal. That has been the case for much of Moore’s career, although Caleb Williams could change that. This year’s top pick enters the league with major expectations, but the presence of a well-regarded skill group may limit what he needs to do as a rookie for the Bears to be successful.

Chicago traded for Keenan Allen before following up the Williams pick with the selection of Rome Odunze. The former has one year on his current deal while the latter will be cost-controlled through at least 2027. Moore, meanwhile, has two years remaining on his $61.88MM extension. While there is no need for urgency this summer, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic notes the Maryland product is a strong candidate for an extension based on his play along with his high standing in the organization (subscription required).

Moore is due just over $16MM in 2024 and ’25, but only $1.11MM of his base salaries in that span are guaranteed. In terms of annual average value, he now sits 17th in the league with respect to receiver compensation (a ranking which will drop further once the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk sign their own second contracts). A deal keeping him place through the remainder of his prime and tying him to Chicago while Williams is on his rookie pact would be sensible for team and player based on Moore’s first year in the Windy City.

On the other hand, the presence of Allen (who is interested in a market-level Bears deal) and Odunze could lessen Moore’s role on offense. General manager Ryan Poles may prefer to wait out the 2024 season and see how the team’s new offensive playmakers fit before committing to a Moore deal. In the event that were to take place, though, another productive year could up his asking price in the wake of continued increases in the receiver market.

Two agents Fishbain spoke with (but who do not represent Moore) used Calvin Ridley‘s Titans deal (four years, $92MM) as a comparable deal. Moore – who is two years younger and has a nearly identical yards per game average for his career – could certainly command a raise if a short-term deal were to be worked out by tacking on a few years to the remainder of his current pact. The agents suggested a two-year, $60MM top-up could be an appropriate figure in this case.

With considerable cap space now and in the near future, the Bears can certainly afford a big-ticket Moore investment. It will be interesting to see if Poles and the Bears pursue an agreement over the course of the summer or take a more patient approach with him.

Offseason In Review: New York Giants

June 26th, 2024 at 10:19pm CST by Sam Robinson

The 2023 Giants offseason brought significant investments from the Joe Schoen regime in Dave Gettleman-era acquisitions. One of those moves has come to define Schoen’s regime. The team’s decision to give Daniel Jones a four-year, $160MM deal with two fully guaranteed seasons, while franchise-tagging Saquon Barkley, ended one long-running partnership and has another on shaky ground. Months after Jones’ ACL tear wrapped a woeful season from the now-well-paid quarterback, Barkley signed with the Eagles.

Following a surprise playoff showing in the Schoen-Brian Daboll partnership’s first season, the Giants tumbled off that tier in 2023. Jones is back in “prove it” territory, while Daboll — his 2022 Coach of the Year accolade notwithstanding — may join his QB in a make-or-break year. This Giants offseason involved key decisions, though it largely boiled down to one call in late April.

Trades:

The Giants look to have benefited from both the Panthers’ regime change and the fallout from the now-infamous rejected Rams trade proposal at the 2022 deadline. It took only a package headlined by a second-round pick for the Giants to pry Burns from the Panthers, who had franchise-tagged the disgruntled edge rusher. Burns, 26, will now team with Kayvon Thibodeaux to give the Giants their best-looking OLB duo since at least Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon.

A complex route formed to deliver Burns to New York; a fork in that road emerged in October 2022. As the Panthers regrouped following Matt Rhule‘s firing, they dealt Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers for four picks. None of those was a first-rounder. Other Carolina cogs drew extensive interest, with Burns at the front of that pack. Shortly after the Rams missed out on McCaffrey, the team — at the end of its “eff them picks” period — attempted to add a reinforcement to a sinking Super Bowl title defense by offering two first-rounders and a third for Burns.

Still owing the Lions their 2023 first-rounder from the Matthew Stafford trade, the Rams could not offer their 2023 first. That turned out to matter, as then-GM Scott Fitterer — whose job security was unstable after David Tepper axed Rhule — viewed the opportunity to discuss an extension with Burns as more valuable than 2024 and ’25 firsts. Denying Burns a chance to land in Los Angeles with a likely extension awaiting reframed the Panthers’ re-up talks with their top pass rusher.

Irked at Carolina turning down a big trade offer that doubled as a path for an L.A. extension, Burns did not come to terms with the team that drafted him. As Burns’ asking price soared, Fitterer balked at extending him in 2023. After Fitterer’s firing, the Panthers took what they could get — after pausing extension talks in early March — and finally cut bait.

Burns and the Panthers were not believed to be close on terms, as the five-year veteran pushed for a deal in the $30MM-per-year range before Nick Bosa became the NFL’s first $30MM-AAV edge rusher. Burns asking for terms bettering T.J. Watt‘s Steelers extension understandably spooked the Panthers, who did receive trade offers for the Ron Rivera-era draftee at last year’s deadline. Of course, those proposals are not believed to have come in near where the Rams went.

The Giants gave Burns a five-year, $141MM extension upon completing the trade. Not seeing Azeez Ojulari deliver consistency alongside Thibodeaux, the Giants greenlit a big-ticket deal that should pair well — for the time being, at least — with their top-10 pick’s rookie contract. Although the Jaguars’ Josh Allen passed Burns this spring, the new Giants OLB still ranks third among edges in AAV ($28.2MM) and fourth in total guarantees ($87.5MM) and fully guaranteed money ($76MM). Much will be expected from a player who has proven reliable while settling in outside the top tier, production-wise, at his position.

While Jones’ AAV checks in beyond Burns’, the latter received the most guaranteed money in Giants history. Burns is 1-for-5 in 10-plus-sack seasons, totaling 12.5 in 2022, and he ranks just 12th in sacks since 2019 (46). In terms of QB hits since Burns entered the league, he ranks 14th (95). The Florida State alum has certainly done well for himself despite solid but unspectacular work in Charlotte, though he was asked to deliver high-end production despite his team playing from behind more often than not.

Thibodeaux registered 11.5 sacks on a bad team last season. He certainly stands to benefit from Burns’ presence, and it will be interesting to see how the Giants proceed when their younger OLB becomes extension-eligible. That point comes in January, though with a fifth-year option in place to extend Thibodeaux’s rookie deal through 2025, the Giants have some time with their current arrangement. Burns’ 2024 and ’25 salaries are guaranteed at signing. If he is on the Giants’ roster on Day 5 of the 2025 league year, his full 2026 salary is guaranteed.

This is a big commitment for the Giants, who also looked into Bryce Huff. The team presumably inquired about Huff before Burns talks accelerated, though the trade negotiations with Carolina — which featured extensive familiarity considering Schoen worked with the Panthers for nearly 20 years and worked with Morgan in Buffalo — began well before the trade came to pass.

 Free agency additions:

Daboll brought in multiple former Bills pieces this offseason, the Singletary move being the most notable. After producing on a near-veteran-minimum contract with the Texans, the sixth-year RB will be tasked with replacing Saquon Barkley in New York. Barkley and Singletary are on different talent planes, as their respective contracts illustrated in March; the Giants believe they will be able to get by with the latter, who still quadrupled his guarantee figure from 2023.

Singletary, 26, operated in Daboll’s offense over his first three seasons. During that span, the Bills used the 5-foot-7 back as their primary option behind Josh Allen. Despite drafting Zack Moss in the 2020 second round, Buffalo kept Singletary in the lead role. The ex-Florida Atlantic standout — a 2019 third-round pick — missed just one game over his final three Bills seasons and has offered reliable production. From 2021-23, Singletary totaled between 1,091 and 1,099 scrimmage yards. He has not offered too much as a receiver, never eclipsing 280 yards in a season. Receiving production from backs — a Barkley strong suit at points — will be an area to monitor within the Giants’ offense this season.

Next Gen Stats gave Singletary a mid-pack ranking in rush yards over expected, but he outplayed the one-year, $1.77MM Houston contract. The Texans turned to Singletary over Dameon Pierce to help their C.J. Stroud-piloted operation to the playoffs. Singletary also ran behind a makeshift offensive line for much of the season, as the Texans dealt with injuries basically everywhere Shaq Mason was not playing up front. Singletary notched a career-high 898 rushing yards, though the Texans did not offer him as much as they ended up paying Joe Mixon (three years, $19.75MM; $13MM guaranteed at signing).

Big Blue did not offer Barkley much blocking aid, and last year involved a spate of injuries. The team tried a low-cost approach at guard last season; the effort failing prompted more spending in 2024. Enter Runyan and Eluemunor, who are in place at left and right guard.

Having given Elgton Jenkins a top-market contract, the Packers predictably let Runyan walk. The latter will play his home games in the stadium where his father, a longtime Eagles right tackle, frequently tussled with Michael Strahan. One of five UFA guards to draw an eight-figure-per-year contract this offseason, Runyan brings three years of starter experience to New York. PFR’s No. 32 overall free agent, Runyan should be a big upgrade from recent Giants guard offerings.

The $10MM-per-year blocker logged full seasons at both guard positions, shifting to RG to accommodate Jenkins’ move back inside during the 2022 season. A 50-game starter, the former sixth-round pick ranked 17th among interior O-linemen in pass block win rate last season. Pro Football Focus slotted Runyan 47th among guards.

This year marks a new position and foreign contractual territory for Eluemunor, who had played on three straight one-year deals (none eclipsing $3MM) with the Raiders. The low-cost starter parlayed his work at right tackle and right guard into a midlevel contract. Eluemunor, 29, started 31 games — mostly at RT — for the Raiders over the past two seasons. PFF rated the former Ravens fifth-rounder 36th among tackles in 2023.

The Giants’ decision to give Evan Neal another shot at right tackle will kick Eluemunor inside, where has not played regularly since 2021. Even in his 2021 Raiders debut, Eluemunor only logged 266 snaps at guard. He did not see any time there last season. PFF has rated Neal as a bottom-two tackle regular in each of the past two seasons, and he is coming off a midseason foot fracture — an injury initially misdiagnosed as a sprained ankle — that sidelined him throughout the Giants’ offseason program.

Eluemunor looms as an emergency fix for the Giants, who have some interior insurance in Stinnie — who started in Super Bowl LV and made 11 starts last season — and Schlottmann (14 career starts in Denver and Minnesota). The Giants have converted guard Joshua Ezeudu tentatively in place as their swing tackle, but the 2022 third-rounder allowed five sacks despite playing just 266 snaps in place of Andrew Thomas last season.

The offseason additions aside, Neal’s development remains paramount in New York, as the Schoen regime drafted him seventh overall. Neal continuing down this road would remind of Ereck Flowers‘ underwhelming (in New York, that is) career path.

Before the Giants came to terms with Lock, they were on the Jameis Winston radar. The latter ended up in Cleveland, helping lead Lock to the Big Apple. A run of rumors has emerged regarding Lock’s role, and while the ex-Broncos and Seahawks QB has not been a team’s preferred starter since Teddy Bridgewater‘s second 2021 concussion forced Vic Fangio to move Lock back into his lineup, the former second-round pick has been mentioned as a possible Jones competitor at multiple points this offseason.

Seahawks GM John Schneider said the prospect of a competition with Jones helped lure Lock away from Seattle, and NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah noted shortly after the draft the Missouri alum carries a legitimate shot at wresting the job from Jones. Lock has said he expects his role to be a Jones backup, and Daboll pushed back on the notion this will be a competition. Lock seeing starts may not remind of the ignominious Mike Glennon stretch, but if the Giants are starting the inconsistent ex-Broncos option without Jones having suffered an injury, the team’s big-picture plan will have veered well off course.

Lock’s only full season as a starter (2020) featured him leading the NFL in INTs (15) despite only finishing 12 games. The Broncos traded for Bridgewater to demote the John Elway-era draftee and then included him in 2022’s blockbuster Russell Wilson trade. Despite Lock initially being viewed as more likely to succeed Wilson in Seattle, he lost a battle with Geno Smith and never threatened the eventual Comeback Player of the Year’s job security again.

Lock, 27, is a career 59.7% passer who holds a 6.7 yards-per-attempt figure. The Giants could look to park Jones late in the season — similar to the Raiders and Broncos’ actions with their starters over the past two years — in a bubble-wrap scenario that prevents $12MM in injury guarantees from entering the equation, but that would seemingly only come up if the team is well out of the playoff mix. Still, Lock represents an interesting wild card whose usage could be telling about the franchise’s immediate future.

Wilson’s short free agency tour stopped through New York, though this “what if” involving a Giants QB investment did not rival the one that came in April. Wilson, who ended up with the Steelers on a vet-minimum deal, would have likely held the upper hand on Jones in a competition. As of now, Lock is intriguing insurance.

Re-signings:

Notable losses:

In terms of accomplishments, Frank Gifford is the best running back in Giants history. Production-wise, it is Tiki Barber, who still sits in the top 30 on the NFL’s rushing yardage list. For sheer talent, it is difficult to beat Barkley, whom the Giants hoped would make a Canton case someday. If Barkley is to launch a Hall of Fame case, he will need to make significant contributions in Philadelphia.

The Giants closed a six-year Barkley partnership by determining they did not want to pay what it required — or even close to it — to employ the two-time Pro Bowler in 2024. That will mean, barring injury, two games against Barkley this season.

The team made it clear in 2023 Jones would be its priority and Barkley the secondary concern. Positional value supported this stance, despite Barkley being a far superior player. Barkley played the season on a $10.1MM franchise tag. Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain early in the season, but he exited 2023 a safer bet following Jones’ ACL tear. As the Giants launched a serious research effort to consider adding a Jones replacement, Barkley said they were not among the four teams to make an offer (though, Barkley and Schoen’s accounts may differ here, as a recent Hard Knocks trailer dangled). This led to a three-year, $37.75MM Eagles agreement.

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Extension Candidate: Browns LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

June 24th, 2024 at 8:43pm CST by Ben Levine

Thanks in part to injuries, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah didn’t necessarily live up to his second-round billing through his first two seasons in the NFL. However, the linebacker stepped up in a big way during the 2023 campaign, and that performance could earn him an extension with the Browns in the coming months.

As Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com notes, “JOK” has emerged as an extension candidate for the organization. The reporter believes the Browns front office would prefer to lock up Owusu-Koramoah as soon as possible, either before the regular season or part way through the campaign. That way, the organization can assure the impending free agent is clear of any distractions in the follow-up to his breakout season.

After being selected with the 52nd pick in the 2021 draft, Owusu-Koramoah proceeded to earn All-Rookie team honors after finishing with 76 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and a pair of forced fumbles. He missed a chunk of that season with an ankle injury, but Pro Football Focus still graded him as a top-10 player at his position. The linebacker took a slight step back during his sophomore campaign. He missed six more games thanks to a foot injury, and he finished the year ranked only 38th at his position.

Fortunately for the player and the organization, Owusu-Koramoah took a significant leap this past season. The 24-year-old finished the campaign with 101 tackles, 3.5 sacks, and two interceptions, earning him his first career Pro Bowl nod. Pro Football Focus ranked him 18th among 82 qualifying linebackers, including the second-best pass-rushing score at his position.

There’s a chance Owusu-Koramoah could solidify himself as a definitive top-10 linebacker with a strong performance in 2024. That would come at the perfect time for the fourth-year player, as he’s set to hit free agency following the season. JOK doesn’t have the track record to match the $18MM average annual value mark that’s been surpassed by Roquan Smith, Fred Warner, and Tremaine Edmunds, but he could still be in line for a lucrative pay day.

Patrick Queen leaped into the top-five AAV at the position this offseason following a strong year in Baltimore. The former first-round pick got a three-year, $41MM deal from the Steelers, good for a $13.6MM AAV. The LB franchise tag for 2025 is projected to be north of $25MM, so Owusu-Koramoah does have some leverage if the Browns truly intend to keep him long-term. The linebacker is set to earn around $2MM on the final year of his rookie contract in 2024.

The Browns also haven’t done a whole lot to add depth at the weakside linebacker spot, with former UDFAs Mohamoud Diabate and Charlie Thomas serving as JOK’s primary backups. Anthony Walker and Sione Takitaki both departed this offseason, meaning the Browns will be even more reliant on Owusu-Koramoah’s experience in the linebackers room next year.

For what it’s worth, Owusu-Koramoah said he’s not overly focused on his contract status, noting that “there’s a time and place for everything” (per Zac Jackson of The Athletic). More notably, the linebacker declared that he’s “all about ball,” which is surely the type of mentality the front office is seeking from the hopeful defensive stalwart.

5 Key Stories: 6/16/24 – 6/23/24

June 23rd, 2024 at 4:47pm CST by Adam La Rose

The period between offseason programs ending and training camps beginning is in full swing. A number of notable developments and updates to ongoing contract situations have taken place around the NFL in recent days, though. In case you missed any of the top headlines from the past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Patriots Extend Stevenson: Signs pointed to an agreement being close between the Patriots and running back Rhamondre Stevenson shortly before an extension was indeed finalized. The 26-year-old is now attached to a four-year deal which will keep him in place through 2028. The pact has a base value of $36MM ($17MM of which is guaranteed), but incentives could push Stevenson’s earnings to $48MM. New England does not have a track record of making lucrative backfield commitments, but the new regime led by Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo authorized a deal carrying a $9MM annual average, the seventh-highest figure for running backs. Stevenson – who has amassed 3,047 scrimmage yards in his three-year career – will be counted on as a focal point of the Patriots’ offense for years to come.
  • 49ers, Aiyuk Not Close To Deal: Progress remains elusive with respect to efforts between the 49ers and wideout Brandon Aiyuk on extension talks. Team and player are at an impasse as things currently stand, with San Francisco not prepared to meet Aiyuk’s asking price. This offseason has seen the receiver market reach new heights, and to little surprise the 26-year-old has adjusted his financial target based on the new going rate for top pass-catchers. San Francisco has both Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel under contract for one more year, but keeping both in the fold in 2025 will be challenging. The team also has a Brock Purdy extension to budget for, leading to continued speculation about a receiver being dealt. Aiyuk skipped OTAs and minicamp, and his training camp participation will no doubt depend on his contract status.
  • Jets, Reddick Unlikely To Work Out Extension? Running counter to what the Jets expected, Haason Reddick was absent from the team’s mandatory minicamp earlier this month. The offseason trade acquisition is angling for a new contract putting him closer to the top of the edge rush pecking order, but New York is not interested in making such a commitment. Approaching his age-30 season, Reddick wanted to remain in Philadelphia but an inability to work out an extension led to him being dealt to New York. He could elect to incur fines by avoiding training camp in July, or he could stage a ‘hold in’ and avoid participating. Optimism does exist, however, that an arrangement can be agreed upon by Reddick and his new employer before camp opens. Whether that consists of a new deal or incentives being added to his existing one will be interesting to see.
  • Broncos Hire David Shaw: After a successful run at Stanford, David Shaw was frequently connected to an opportunity to return to the sidelines in the NFL. He will indeed be back in the pro game in 2024, but his role with the Broncos will be in the front office. Shaw will handle player evaluation at both the NFL and college levels in Denver, a team which interviewed him for their head coaching position in 2022. That gig went to Sean Payton, but he and Shaw have remained close since their shared time as assistants on the 1997 Eagles. The latter neither confirmed nor denied having future NFL coaching aspirations, and he will focus his attention on his transition to new responsibilities with the Broncos.
  • Browns Aiming For Cooper Resolution: Another of the league’s ongoing receiver situations is that between the Browns and Amari Cooper. The five-time Pro Bowler is eyeing a new deal, and Cleveland hopes to work out an agreement ahead of training camp. Cooper has proven to be an integral member of the team’s passing attack, although the trade acquisition of Jerry Jeudy could cut into his target share moving forward. One year remains on the $20MM-per-year contract Cooper signed during his time with the Cowboys, a figure which now falls well short of the receiver market’s ceiling. At age 30, the former top-five pick will not reach the top of the pecking order on an extension but he could land a raise if the Browns agree to either a new deal or an incentive package covering 2024.

Trade Candidate: Bailey Zappe

June 22nd, 2024 at 9:40pm CST by Ben Levine

The Patriots completely revamped their QB depth chart this offseason, but there is still one holdover at the position. 2022 fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe is still kicking around at the bottom of New England’s roster, but it remains to be seen if the third-year pro will still be on the squad come September.

Zappe has had an uneven two years in New England, although the Western Kentucky product hasn’t looked completely helpless in his handful of starts. During his rookie season, he sparked a brief QB controversy after guiding New England’s woeful offense to a pair of victories. However, Zappe slid back down the depth chart when Mac Jones returned from injury, and the Patriots were expected to continue with that same hierarchy for the 2023 campaign.

Zappe ended up struggling under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, leading to him being a surprise cut towards the end of the preseason. The second-year QB quickly landed on New England’s practice squad, and he was signed back to the active roster in early September. Still, the roster machinations proved that the Patriots were willing to let the player walk for nothing, and the apparent lack of interest from opposing squads proved their wasn’t a whole lot of league-wide intrigue in the signal-caller.

The backup QB managed to bounce back and (somewhat) rehabilitate his image during the 2023 campaign. With Jones and the Patriots offense continuing to struggle, Zappe ended up garnering six starts in New England. His numbers weren’t pretty (59.9 completion percentage, 2.8 touchdown percentage, 4.2 interception percentage), but he was notably under center for two of the team’s four wins. While nobody is confusing Zappe with a starting quarterback, the player at least proved that he wouldn’t compromise his team’s chances if inserted into the lineup.

With the Patriots navigating a post-Bill Belichick era this offseason, the organization decided to completely revamp their QB room. The team used the third-overall pick on Drake Maye, pairing the rookie with veteran acquisition (and old friend) Jacoby Brissett. The organization also used a sixth-round selection on Joe Milton III, a series of moves that seemed to push Zappe off the roster. Reports from earlier this offseason indicated that the Patriots wanted to resolve their QB jam as quickly as possibly, allowing the coaching staff to better evaluate their three sure-thing QBs. That could have led to a speedy cut for Zappe, but the QB is still sticking around the roster.

While the Patriots could claim that Zappe is competing with Milton for the QB3 role, there’s little chance the rebuilding squad will prefer the third-year player to the rookie. So, it seems more likely that the organization is holding on to Zappe until a QB-needy team comes knocking. Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald indicated as much last month, noting that a Zappe trade remains a possibility for the organization. While teams didn’t show interest in Zappe last year, Callahan believes there could be a market for the player in the coming months, especially as teams face injuries during the preseason.

Callahan suggests that the Patriots could fetch a late-round pick in return for Zappe, or the front office could attach a pick to the QB for a better return. Considering the player’s track record, Zappe would probably be more appealing to teams that lose key backups vs. those that lose a starting QB. Of course, in order for the Patriots to avoid a staring match where a Zappe suitor simply awaits the player’s inevitable release, New England would require multiple trade partners to join the fray. Zappe’s most-recent deal with the Patriots keeps him under contract through the 2024 campaign on an easily-manageable $985K cap hit.

It seems like a foregone conclusion that Bailey Zappe won’t be sticking around New England for the 2024 campaign. However, it remains to be seen if the front office will be able to garner a return for the impending third-year QB.

5 Key Stories: 6/9/24 – 6/16/24

June 16th, 2024 at 4:45pm CST by Adam La Rose

The conclusion of each team’s offseason program around the NFL brought about several key developments. In case you missed any of the top headlines from the past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Lawrence Inks Jaguars Extension: A mutual interest existed between Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars with respect to working out a monster deal, and that goal has been reached. The former No. 1 pick is now attached to a five-year, $275MM extension including $200MM in guarantees. The $55MM annual average value of the pact matches that of Joe Burrow’s market-topping deal from last offseason, a sign of Jacksonville’s investment in future development from Lawrence. The latter has had an up-and-down tenure to begin his career, and 2023 marked a regression compared to the previous campaign. Still, Lawrence will be expected to lead a return to the postseason moving forward, and he is on the books through 2030. Meanwhile, the QB market now has six players attached to an AAV above $50MM.
  • Steelers Extend Tomlin Through 2027: Earlier in the campaign, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers future was a talking point; that is no longer the case, though. The NFL’s longest-tenured head coach signed a three-year extension, meaning he is now under contract through 2027. Tomlin, 52, has been in Pittsburgh since 2007, a tenure which has seen a pair of Super Bowl appearances and one title. The Steelers are in the midst of a playoff drought, however, and the post-Ben Roethlisberger era has not gone as planned under center to date. Tomlin will be counted on to oversee an attempted rebound on offense moving forward with a continued endorsement from owner Art Rooney II.
  • Higgins Signs Bengals Franchise Tag: The last of the NFL’s 2024 franchise tag recipients is on the books, but not via a long-term extension. Tee Higgins has signed his Bengals franchise tag, putting him on track to earn $21.8MM this season. A multi-year agreement could still be worked out until mid-July, but that would come as a surprise at this point. The 25-year-old is joined by teammate and fellow wideout Ja’Marr Chase in needing a new contract, and investing in the latter would make a Higgins pact challenging. The top of the receiver market has surged this offseason, and another productive campaign from the Clemson product (who has twice topped 1,000 yards) will help his value for a likely free agent departure.
  • Giants’ Waller Retires: Throughout much of the offseason, it remained unclear whether or not Darren Waller would hang up his clears or play a second year with the Giants. The veteran tight end took the former route, ending his career after eight seasons and nine years in the NFL. Hamstring injuries were a common issue in recent campaigns, but the former Pro Bowler faced high expectations upon arrival in New York last offseason. Waller was a key member of the team’s low-output passing attack, but he was limited to 12 games before contemplating his future in the spring. Now, the Giants will rely on other in-house options at the TE spot as Waller transitions to his post-playing days.
  • Falcons Issued Tampering Penalties; Eagles Cleared: The NFL’s investigation into tampering violations by the Falcons and Eagles concluded with varied results. Atlanta was found to have breached the policy with respect to the Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney and Charlie Woerner. The Falcons were docked a 2025 fifth-round pick as a result, and the team will pay out a $250K fine. General manager Terry Fontenot has also been issued a $50K fine as part of the latest league discipline on the subject of tampering. The Eagles, meanwhile, were under scrutiny for their Saquon Barkley addition. Philadelphia was found not to have committed a violation, however, and the team will not face any punishment.

Extension Candidate: Evan McPherson

June 15th, 2024 at 8:16pm CST by Ely Allen

The Bengals front office has been busy and will likely continue to be busy throughout the calendar year. Wide receiver Tee Higgins has now signed his franchise tender and an extension by the deadline of July 15 is not looking likely. While not ideal, this does allow for the front office to turn their attentions towards other matters.

In addition to Higgins, seven other starters are entering contract-years: defensive tackle B.J. Hill, cornerback Mike Hilton, offensive tackle Trent Brown, tight end Mike Gesicki, safety Vonn Bell, long snapper Cal Adomitis, and kicker Evan McPherson. The team also has the extension of star wideout Ja’Marr Chase to concern themselves with. While Chase and some of the others may be a higher priority, McPherson may be the likeliest Bengal to receive the next new deal, according to Jay Morrison of Pro Football Network.

The reason McPherson is the likeliest candidate to next receive an extension is the precedents already in place. Morrison calls it “a textbook case of ‘when, not if.'” For one, the desire for an extension is mutual between McPherson and the team. Contracts for kickers are also extremely straightforward leading to the likelihood that any negotiations should be pretty cut-and-dry.

Long-term contracts for kickers range from three to five years. Only three players at the position, Harrison Butker (Chiefs), Jason Sanders (Dolphins), and Younghoe Koo (Falcons), are on five-year deals, and of the top 14 contracts in the league for kickers, only Graham Gano (Giants), Ka’imi Fairbairn (Texans), Chase McLaughlin (Buccaneers), and Dustin Hopkins (Browns) are inked for only three years. The other seven top contracts are all four-year contracts.

Those contracts also have a narrow range of value with the lowest annual average being $3MM (Hopkins) and the highest being $6MM, shared by Justin Tucker (Ravens) and Jake Elliott (Eagles). That leaves a pretty small range of options for the Bengals to find a deal for McPherson ranging from three to five years with an average annual value of $3MM to $6MM, unless the team is looking to make McPherson the highest-paid kicker in the NFL.

While McPherson has been impressive under his rookie deal in Cincinnati, the Florida-product is only the franchise’s third-most accurate kicker. The former Gator has an NFL field goal percentage of 83.9, converting 78 of his 93 attempts. He has missed six of 132 extra point attempts but showed improvement in that field last year, going 40 for 40 in 2023.

In his first two seasons, McPherson also showed an impressive accuracy from deep, making 14 of 16 attempts from 50+ yards. That accuracy did not quite translate from inside the 40-yard line, though, as he missed seven of 20 attempts from 40-49 yards and even a 20-29 yarder over those first two years. He showed improvement on the latter front in 2023, going a perfect 19 for 19 on any field goals under 50 yards, but his long-distance accuracy suffered as he missed five of 12 attempts from over 50 yards last year.

Despite his inconsistencies, McPherson has still been one of the league’s better kickers over his three years in the NFL. If the Bengals intend to reward his early success by making him the highest-paid kicker in the league, McPherson should expect a four-year deal worth around $25MM or $26MM.

Alternatively, if Cincinnati decides that he may not be due the same money as Tucker or Elliott, the team may opt to instead reward McPherson with longevity, giving him less per year over a five-year deal. A five-year, $25MM offer would be the biggest contract for a kicker in total value and would give McPherson the eighth-highest annual average. The team could meet somewhere in the middle with a five-year, $27.5MM deal that would make McPherson the highest-paid kicker in the league with the fourth-highest annual average.

The biggest area for incentivizing a signing will be in the guarantees. Tucker leads the way in that category with $14MM of is four-year, $24MM deal being guaranteed at signing. The Bengals could give McPherson less money while still rewarding him with a high guaranteed amount, if that’s the route they choose.

However they go about keeping McPherson around, there won’t be too much room for negotiations. The three- to five-year deal averaging somewhere from $5MM to $7MM per year is expected to come sooner rather than later. The team has set the regular season as a de facto deadline for getting extensions done, per Morrison, and there is an expectation that, should McPherson reach a deal before that deadline, it would come shortly after the deadline to extend Higgins a month from today.

5 Key Stories: 6/2/24 – 6/9/24

June 9th, 2024 at 4:47pm CST by Adam La Rose

Many NFL teams conducted their minicamps this week, marking the end of their offseason programs. A relatively lengthy wait until training camp awaits them, but a number of important developments have taken place on the contract front in recent days. In case you missed anything from the past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Vikings, Jefferson Agree To Historic Extension: The most impactful domino at the receiver position fell when Justin Jefferson and the Vikings agreed to a four-year, $140MM extension. The $35MM annual average value of the pact is the highest in league history for a non-quarterback and it moves the top of the WR market even higher. Both the total ($110MM) and full (roughly $89MM) guarantees put Jefferson in a tier of his own regarding up front compensation. The 24-year-old is now under contract through 2028 as a continued foundational piece of Minnesota’s offense. The pace of Jefferson negotiations was a talking point this offseason, and the lack of a deal enticed teams to make sizable trade offers. The Vikings turned down outside interest, though, and a record-breaking deal is now officially in place.
  • 49ers Extend McCaffrey: No guaranteed money remained on Christian McCaffrey’s 49ers pact, which prompted an OTA absence and the request for a new deal. An agreement has now been reached, with the reigning Offensive Player of the Year securing a two-year, $38MM extension. McCaffrey is on the books through 2027 as a result of the pact, one which includes $24MM guaranteed and represents an $8MM raise across the next two years compared to what he was originally owed. Since arriving via trade in 2022, the former Panther has thrived in San Francisco. He will now continue to operate as the team’s top rushing threat as well as a key component of their passing game. As his Carolina extension did, meanwhile, McCaffrey’s new pact has moved the financial bar higher at the running back position.
  • Browns Confirm Stefanski, Berry Extensions: Earlier this offseason, signs pointed to the Browns extending both head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry. The team has now officially inked the pair to new deals, paving the way for consistency on the sidelines and in the front office unlike that which has been seen for much of the time under the ownership of Jimmy and Dee Haslam. Cleveland has gone to the postseason twice in Stefanski’s four-year HC tenure, and he has earned Coach of the Year honors both times. Berry has been in place for the same duration, and his record of player acquisition (with the rather notable exception of Deshaun Watson) has generally been well-regarded. Expectations will be high for the pair for the foreseeable future.
  • Steelers Reunite With Sutton: Following his release from the Lions related to a domestic violence arrest, cornerback Cameron Sutton drew interest from the Steelers. The feeling has proven to be mutual with the sides reuniting via a one-year contract. Like many deals signed at this time of year, the pact is worth the veteran’s minimum and does not include any guaranteed money. Sutton, 29, spent his first six years with the Steelers before playing in Detroit in 2023. He will provide at least experienced depth or a starting-caliber option for Pittsburgh’s CB room, one led by Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson. Sutton faces the possibility of a suspension regardless of how his legal case plays out, but when on the field in 2024 he will be in a familiar territory.
  • Commanders Cut McManus: Not long after it was learned Brandon McManus is the subject of a sexual assault lawsuit, the veteran kicker was let go by the Commanders. McManus faces allegations related to an incident on a team flight when he was a member of the Jaguars, and Jacksonville has also been named in the suit. Both Jags coach Doug Pederson and Commanders coach Dan Quinn have denied knowledge of the allegations prior to when they became public. McManus signed a one-year deal with Washington in March, and half of his $1.5MM signing bonus has already been paid out. His release came just before the second half was due, which could lead to a dispute with the Commanders. In any case, McManus’ NFL future will no doubt be tied to the outcome of the lawsuit and the ongoing investigation related to it.

5 Key Stories: 5/26/24 – 6/2/24

June 2nd, 2024 at 4:46pm CST by Adam La Rose

With OTAs continuing around the NFL, teams and players have plenty of opportunities to discuss contract maters. In a number of cases, that has seen agreements on new deals reached. In case you missed any of the top stories from the past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Dolphins Extend Waddle: With his fifth-year option having been picked up, Jaylen Waddle was already tied to the Dolphins through 2025. As the team hoped, though, an agreement was reached on a long-term pact. Miami’s young 1,000-yard wideout secured a four-year, $87.5MM deal. The extension includes $76MM guaranteed, with plenty of base compensation locked in at signing and shortly thereafter. The 25-year-old has proven to work well in tandem with Tyreek Hill, and he now sits fourth in the NFL in terms of receiver AAV. Waddle profiles as a focal point on offense for years to come despite Hill’s presence. In the wake of further upward movement at the top of the position’s market, meanwhile, the latter is angling for a new Dolphins deal of his own.
  • Collins Lands Texans Extension: Shortly before the Waddle deal, Nico Collins inked a Texans extension also making him one of the league’s top earners amongst receivers. Following a breakout season in 2023, he signed a three-year accord with a base value of $72.5MM. The former third-rounder is part of an offense which features Tank Dell and offseason trade acquisition Stefon Diggs, meaning there will considerable competition for targets in 2024. Still, Collins, 25, will be expected to produce after he posted 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns during C.J. Stroud’s debut season. With the latter on his rookie deal for the coming years, the Texans have acted aggressively with respect to investments at the offensive skill positions, and Collins represents a key figure in that effort.
  • Love Set To Approach Top Of Market With Packers Deal? The Packers entered 2023 with Jordan Love at the helm despite his inexperience. The former first-rounder put forth a strong showing in the latter half of the campaign, though, helping his market value on a long-term deal. Love is reportedly expected to land a Packers extension near the top of the quarterback market, which would entail an annual average value of more than $50MM. The 25-year-old is under contract for 2024 as a result of the bridge deal which replaced his fifth-year option, but the $11MM it calls for falls well short of what he will be earning on his next pact. Green Bay’s offense (filled with a young skill position corps) will hinge on Love’s development for years to come if the team can reach its stated goal of working out a lucrative agreement.
  • 49ers Extend Jennings: The 49ers’ receiver room received some short-term clarity with Jauan Jennings signing a two-year deal worth up to $15.4MM. The pact – which includes $10.5MM guaranteed – takes the place of his 2024 RFA tender and ensures he will remain in San Francisco to continue his role as the team’s No. 3 receiver. Both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel have frequently been mentioned in trade speculation this offseason, although the team appears content to retain both wideouts for at least one more year. Jennings, 26, has proven to be a consistent complementary option in the passing game while serving as a strong run blocker during his time in the Bay Area. That will continue on a cost-effective basis compared to what Aiyuk and Samuel will require if they are to be retained beyond 2024.
  • Watt Also Considering Steelers For Comeback: After spending the past season as a broadcaster, J.J Watt led it be known he would be willing to play for the Texans in 2024. Such a development would see the future Hall of Fame defensive end reunite with former teammate DeMeco Ryans, Houston’s head coach. Watt is also open to returning to the field with the Steelers, though. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year did not play in Pittsburgh before his retirement, but a deal sending him there would allow him to play with his brother T.J. Watt. The latter has a DPOY award of his own and he is under contract as the focal point of the Steelers’ edge rush for two more seasons. The elder Watt, 35, has made it clear a return is possible just for the coming season and only if injuries force Houston or Pittsburgh into an unwanted roster position. Still, the potential for a comeback makes for an interesting storyline.

The Wide Receiver Market’s Evolution During Rookie-Scale Era

May 31st, 2024 at 10:06pm CST by Sam Robinson

Jaylen Waddle‘s Dolphins extension includes a franchise record in guaranteed money. It also comes during an offseason in which Tyreek Hill has angled for an adjustment to his contract, which previously paced the NFL in wide receiver AAV — at $30MM per year.

Three players have passed that this offseason, a list that now includes Justin Jefferson, with a CeeDee Lamb extension on the radar in Dallas. The bar could be moved again before Week 1. Two years after Hill raised the WR contract ceiling during an eventful offseason for the position, this summer promises fireworks atop the market.

On that note, here is a look at where the WR market has climbed during the rookie-scale era, which has set a firm structure on when teams could negotiate with players. This is how the top wideout salary has evolved since the 2011 CBA was ratified:

August 20, 2011

The eventual 17-year veteran played four seasons on this deal before reworking it ahead of the 2015 season

March 14, 2012

The Hall of Fame talent pushed the receiver AAV bar to $16.21MM, finishing his career on this contract four seasons later

March 8, 2016

February 27, 2017

Brown played two seasons on this deal before being traded to the Raiders in March 2019

August 27, 2018

Beckham played four-plus seasons on this extension, being traded to the Browns in March 2019. Cleveland cut OBJ midway through the 2021 campaign.

July 31, 2019

Thomas spent four seasons on this contract, battling injuries before signing a reworked Saints deal in March 2023

September 7, 2019

Jones played out this contract, which the Falcons traded to the Titans in June 2021

September 8, 2020

Months after acquiring Hopkins via trade, the Cardinals added guaranteed money to the All-Pro’s through-2022 Texans extension. This pushed the position’s AAV ceiling to $27.25MM, which set up the 2022 offseason’s developments. Hopkins played three seasons on this deal, being released in May 2023.

March 17, 2022

March 23, 2022

April 24, 2024

April 25, 2024

June 3, 2024

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