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Make-Or-Break Year: Texans CB Gareon Conley

June 8th, 2020 at 7:06pm CST by Zachary Links

Before last year’s trade deadline, the Texans swung a deal for former Raiders first-round pick Gareon Conley. The deal gave Conley a change of scenery and an opportunity to turn his pro career around. With fellow former Ohio State first-rounder Bradley Roby and veteran Johnathan Joseph out of action, Conley would have the chance to see significant reps, especially since second-round rookie Lonnie Johnson was greener than expected.

[RELATED: Texans Call Off Timmy Jernigan Deal]

Johnson didn’t improve much, but the Texans still turned down Conley’s fifth-year option for 2021, which would have paid him $10.24MM, guaranteed for injury only. Now, he’s in limbo with one year and $1.89MM on his deal.

Conley has an awful lot riding on his 2020 season. With a big showing, Conley could secure the bag – either with the Texans or another club. If he doesn’t performed, he’ll be viewed as a low-risk pickup, the kind of player that nets a cheap base salary on a one-year prove-it deal.

Conley didn’t quite cut it in Oakland, so you could be forgiven for overlooking his natural skillset and quietly solid second half with Houston. The Raiders shipped Conley out after he failed to make plays consistently in their zone scheme. But, with the Texans, Conley broke up eleven would-be passes – two less than team leader Johnathan Joseph in five fewer games.

The big-game talent has been there all along – Conley was a first-round pick for a reason and, if not for his strange pre-draft saga, he might have been a Top 10 choice. The Ohio State product was also surprisingly solid in coverage with the Raiders, even though he didn’t quite gel with the team. Conley boasts the highest forced incompletion rate of any cornerback in the NFL over the past four years, as noted by Pro Football Focus (Twitter link). That stat comes with a small asterisk since Conley has only been on the field for two years, but the fact remains that he’s a quality stopper.

If Conley can stave off Johnson for the CB2 job opposite Roby, the stage is set for him to break out and cash in next spring.

This Date In Transactions History: Rob Gronkowski Signs Record-Breaking Extension

June 8th, 2020 at 9:25am CST by Zachary Links

Eight years ago today, Rob Gronkowski inked the most lucrative deal for a tight end in league history. The Patriots tacked another six years on to the two remaining seasons of his rookie contract at $54MM, locking him down through the 2019 campaign. 

[RELATED: Patriots Explored Cam Newton Deal?]

The deal made plenty of sense for both sides. With $13MM fully guaranteed and $18MM guaranteed for injury, the 23-year-old scored some serious financial security early in his career. Through his first two NFL seasons, the former second-round pick made less than $2.5MM in total.

Meanwhile, the Patriots locked down a tight end coming off of a First-Team All-Pro selection. Although he impressed as a rookie, Gronk took his game to a new level in 2011 as he caught 90 passes for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns with a catch percentage of 72.6%. Even today, those numbers stand as Gronk’s career bests.

A broken forearm sidelined Gronkowski for five games in 2012. Shortly after returning, he re-aggravated the injury in the Pats’ first playoff game and missed out on the AFC Championship game. In the offseason, the forearm became infected, forcing the tight end to undergo the third and fourth surgeries of his career. In June of 2013, he had back surgery. Then, in a late-season contest against the Browns, he suffered a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee. Gronk was undoubtedly grateful for his injury guarantees at that time.

There were more ailments to come, including a less serious knee injury in 2015 and a pulmonary contusion in 2016, but Gronkowski continued to be one of the very best at his position. Meanwhile, the salary cap continued to grow and the tight end market advanced. Over time, Gronk’s record-setting deal started to look more and more team-friendly. In 2014, Jimmy Graham signed a deal that made him the league’s highest-paid tight end with an average annual average value of $10MM and $16.5MM in full guarantees.

Eventually, something had to give. Prior to the 2017 season, the Pats tweaked Gronk’s deal to incentivize his performance while protecting the team against another injury-marred season. The deal gave him a base salary of $5.25MM with incentive packages at three different tiers:

  • A total salary of $10.75MM with either 90% play time or 80 catches or 1,200‪ receiving yards or an All-Pro nomination.
  • A total salary $8.75MM with 80% play time or 70 catches or 1,000 receiving yards or 12 touchdowns.
  • A total salary of $6.75MM with 70% play time or 60 receptions or 800 receiving yards or ten touchdowns.

With 1,084 yards (off of 69 receptions with eight touchdowns), Gronkowski satisfied the middle tier requirement. However, thanks to his First-Team All-Pro selection, the tight end maxed out his 2017 package. After that, Gronk asked the Pats to sweeten the pot once again, and they obliged with a similar incentives package worth up to $3.3MM for the 2018 season. The Patriots also came close to sending Gronk to the Lions, an indication that all was not well between the two sides.

The 2018 wound up being Gronkowski’s final season in a Patriots uniform. At the age of 29, Gronkowski retired. One year later, he pushed the Patriots to trade him to the Bucs, rebooting his bromance with longtime pal Tom Brady.

PFR Originals: 6/1/20 – 6/7/20

June 7th, 2020 at 5:02pm CST by Zachary Links

In case you missed it, here’s a look at some of our faves from the past week:

Make-Or-Break Year: Bengals WR John Ross

June 7th, 2020 at 4:47pm CST by Zachary Links

In 2017, the Bengals had the No. 9 overall pick and two clear top needs. First, there was the defensive end position, where they were hoping to upgrade from Michael Johnson after another so-so season. They were also out to find a young and athletic wide receiver to help take the pressure off of A.J. Green. John Ross, who wowed scouts with a 4.22-second 40-yard-dash time, fit the bill at WR, though many figured the Bengals would trade down to take him.

[RELATED: Bengals Rejected Trades For William Jackson III]

Instead, they stood pat and used their top pick to take Ross. At the time, many said that it was a reach – the Washington product’s speed was undeniably impressive, but his medical history was extensive. In 2015, he tore his ACL and missed the entire season. And, after his impressive combine showing, he underwent labrum surgery. In short, evaluators loved him, but most viewed him as a one-contract player rather than a long-term investment.

So far, Ross hasn’t done much to prove the critics wrong. In three pro seasons, Ross has played a grand total of 24 games. At times, when healthy and on the field, he’s dazzled. Ross looked like a monster in the making after is Week 1 performance against the Seahawks last year, going off for seven catches, 158 yards, and two scores. In Week 2 against the 49ers, he topped 100 yards once again, and he did it with just four receptions. After that, Ross missed all of October and November due to injury and did not post another 100-yard game.

As expected, the Bengals declined Ross’ fifth-year option in May, turning down a one-year, $15.68MM add-on that would have guaranteed his 2021 season for injury. Even more concerning for Ross’ Cincinnati future, the club used the first pick of the second round to select Tee Higgins, who is fresh off of a ~1,200-yard season at Clemson. The Bengals haven’t quite written Ross off, but they’re not planning around him either.

With one year left on Ross’ original rookie contract, the story on him is roughly the same as it was three years ago – Ross has the speed and skills to dominate the league, but he has not been able to stay healthy and put it all on display. Ross can cash in as a free agent (with the Bengals or one of the league’s other 31 teams) if he turns in a full and productive season, but he’ll also have to maintain his place in the pecking order. If the majority of Joe Burrow‘s targets go to Green, Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, Ross won’t have much of an opportunity to showcase himself.

This Date In Transactions History: 49ers Trade Issac Bruce To The Rams

June 7th, 2020 at 3:12pm CST by Zachary Links

On this date in 2010, the 49ers traded Issac Bruce to the Rams. However, this wasn’t a typical trade. The deal was facilitated in order to allow Bruce, then 37, to retire with his original franchise. 

Bruce started his career with the Rams in 1994, the team’s final season in Los Angeles. The second-round pick played sparingly as a rookie, but he broke out as an NFL sophomore in St. Louis with 119 catches, 1,781 yards, and 13 touchdowns, all of which went down as his career bests. In his 14 illustrious years with the Rams, Bruce amassed four Pro Bowl trips and eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving in eight different seasons.

“Sixteen years was enough for me,” Bruce said at his farewell press conference. “I think a lot was done. But that second training camp practice (in two-a-days) may have played a part in it. I was ready to move on and do something else other than playing football.”

After so many productive seasons in the NFL, Bruce had little left to prove. Bruce was the leading wide receiver in the Rams’ “Greatest Show On Turf” Super Bowl-winning season and left the team as its all-time receiving leader with 14,109 yards. His second act with the Niners was not quite as flashy with 835 yards in his first SF season and 264 yards in his 2009 finale.

“The two years I was away, I kept tabs on this organization,” Bruce said. “I played against this organization, I played against its players. The funny thing is I found myself encouraging them when things didn’t look bright for them. I looked down and saw myself in a different colored uniform. It was honestly just to me personally — it just wasn’t right.”

So, with the trade, Bruce returned back to the Rams and became the last member of the Rams’ first Los Angeles run to hang ’em up. Later, his No. 80 jersey was retired by the team. Bruce was denied entry into the Pro Football Hall of Fame multiple times, but he was finally enshrined in 2020, after six years of eligibility.

This Date In Transactions History: Browns Sign Mychal Kendricks

June 4th, 2020 at 5:45pm CST by Zachary Links

Two years ago today, Mychal Kendricks agreed to terms with the Browns. At the time, the one-year, $2.25MM deal looked like a solid value pickup for the Browns in the second wave of free agency. Instead, the linebacker never played a down for Cleveland. 

What we didn’t know at the time was that Kendricks was involved in a federal investigation for insider trading. Kendricks were aware of the situation, but they say they weren’t clued in on all of the details. Prosecutors alleged that Kendricks and his co-defendant turned $80K in a brokerage account into $1.2MM inside of five months. The insider trading charges he faced could have imprisoned him for up to 37 months, keeping him off the field for at least three years.

When Kendricks’ charges were announced just before the start of the 2018 season, the Browns dropped him. Days later, on Sept. 6, he pleaded guilty in court. Then, just one week after that, Kendricks inked a one-year deal with the Seahawks. Kendricks still had sentencing and a lengthy NFL suspension ahead of him, but Pete Carroll & Co. didn’t want to pass up the chance to sign him at a bargain basement minimum-salaried rate.

Despite the off-the-field issues, Kendricks offered up an impressive resume from his time in Philly, including 74 career starts, 14 sacks, and a 77-tackle campaign in 2017 en route to a Super Bowl ring. Kendricks spent most of 2018 sidelined as he duked it out with the league office, but he returned to form in 2019 as he started in all 14 of his games, tallied 71 stops, and notched three sacks.

Now, Kendricks finds himself in NFL and legal limbo once again. Kendricks was originally set for sentencing on January 23, 2019, but thanks to multiple postponements and the COVID-19 pandemic, Kendricks won’t face the judge until May 29, at the earliest. And, after suffering an ACL tear in January, the Seahawks found linebacker help elsewhere. Depending on how things go from here, Kendricks may eventually find a market for his services as a free agent. Still, it might be a while before we see him back in the fold.

Poll: Should The Vikings Extend Dalvin Cook?

June 4th, 2020 at 10:22am CST by Rory Parks

A number of teams have been burned by giving lucrative contracts to running backs. The Cardinals (David Johnson), Rams (Todd Gurley), and Falcons (Devonta Freeman) are among the clubs that have absorbed significant cap charges for players who did not live up to their big payday. None of those players made it to the end of their second contract before being traded or cut.

In addition, as important as some RBs can be to their team’s offense (see: Christian McCaffrey), the position has generally been devalued in recent years. The prevailing thought is that most running backs are more replaceable than players at other key positions, and that RBs have a shorter shelf-life due to their number of touches and the beatings they take whenever they have the ball in their hands.

The Vikings, therefore, have a major decision to make when it comes to their own RB1, 2017 second-rounder Dalvin Cook. Cook burst onto the scene in his rookie campaign, gaining 122 yards in his regular season debut and averaging nearly five yards per carry in his first four games in the league. Unfortunately, his season was ended by an ACL injury in the fourth game, and in 2018, he was bothered by nagging hamstring issues and played in just 11 games, recording 133 carries.

Despite the hamstring problems and the limited workload in 2018, Cook did manage 4.6 yards per carry that season and also recorded 40 receptions for 305 yards. And though he was limited down the stretch of the 2019 season due to a chest injury, he piled up 250 carries for 1,135 yards (4.5 YPC) and 13 TDs to go along with 53 catches for 519 yards. He ranked as the eighth-best back in the league in terms of defense-adjusted yards above replacement.

So when he’s healthy, he’s pretty darn good, especially for an offense that wants to run the ball a lot. And the silver lining to his injury history is that he should still have a fair amount of tread on his tires, having recorded just 457 carries in his pro career thus far.

On the other hand, the fact that he has missed time with various ailments over his first three seasons in the league is troubling, and for a team that does not have a lot of cap room — particularly if the 2021 cap is reduced due to COVID-19 — ponying up a big-money extension for an injury-risk RB could be problematic. Though Cook will likely not get McCaffrey money, he could easily command $15MM or so on an annual basis, with $30-$40MM in full guarantees.

The Vikings did not select an RB with any of their 15 (!) picks in this year’s draft, but they do return 2019 third-rounder Alexander Mattison, who performed well as Cook’s backup last season. One wonders if Mattison’s presence makes Minnesota less keen to break the bank for Cook.

That said, discussions between Cook and the Vikings have taken place. The soon-to-be 25-year-old said he wants to stay in Minnesota, and he has been participating in the club’s virtual offseason program. We haven’t gotten a status update on the contract talks for a bit — they may be stalled due to COVID-related uncertainty — and it remains to be seen whether a re-up will be hashed out this summer, or if Cook will play out the final year of his rookie deal with an eye towards unrestricted free agency in 2021.

So what do you think? Should Minnesota give Cook top-of-the-market money (or close to it), or should the club pass the torch to Mattison in 2021? Vote in the poll below, and show your work in the comment section.

This Date In Transactions History: Jets Reunite With Demario Davis

June 1st, 2020 at 12:05pm CST by Zachary Links

Three years ago today, the Jets swung a deal with the Browns to reunite with Demario Davis and move on from first-round draft bust Calvin Pryor all in one shot.

Davis didn’t see the field much in his 2012 rookie season with the Jets, but he cracked their starting lineup as an NFL sophomore and remained a Gang Green first-stringer through 2015. After that, he moved on to the Browns in free agency with a two-year, $8MM deal. As the Browns’ starting left inside linebacker, Davis racked up 99 tackles and two sacks, but then-Browns GM Sashi Brown seized an opportunity to trade a dependable veteran for a hard-hitting youngster who had yet to make his mark as a pro.

“Calvin is a young, experienced safety that has upside,” Brown said. “We are pleased to be able to add him to our defensive back room and just like every player we acquire, we expect him to come in with a hard-working mindset ready to compete. DeMario is a guy that we developed the utmost respect for in his time with our team, not only as a professional but also as a person. We appreciate all he did for our organization in his time in Cleveland.”

Pryor, known as the “Louisville Slugger,” didn’t have a clear-cut role in the Jets’ secondary after they used their first two picks in the 2017 draft on Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye. The Browns felt that Pryor could play behind their own rookie safety, Jabrill Peppers, and possibly find steady work in the rotation. Even though Pryor didn’t move the needle much as a pro, there was reason to believe – Pro Football Focus ranked him as a top 50 safety in his first two pro seasons and, even with his ’16 regression, he still ranked ahead of two safeties who were on the Browns’ roster at the time.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, Pryor did not pan out. The Louisville Slugger took a swing at teammate Ricardo Louis, prompting Hue Jackson to cut him before the season opener. Pryor moved on to the Jaguars, suffered an ankle injury in September, and got cut towards the end of the year. Pryor was on the workout circuit in 2018, but he never found his way back to the field.

Davis, meanwhile, exceeded all expectations. He started in all 16 of his games in 2017, per the usual, but delivered a team-high 97 solo tackles and a new career high of 5.0 sacks. And, get this – the Jets even got him to accept less than his scheduled ~$4MM salary for that year, making him an even better value. Fortunately, Davis got his payday the following year. Unfortunately for the Jets, it was with the Saints. After earning First-Team All-Pro honors in 2019, Davis is gearing up for his third season with New Orleans.

The NFL’s Post-June 1 Cuts, Explained

June 1st, 2020 at 10:34am CST by Zachary Links

NFL teams will often use contract bonuses as a way to spread out a cap hit that might otherwise be exorbitant. For example, if a player’s four-year deal includes a $8MM signing bonus, that money can be paid immediately but spread out over four years for cap purposes. This way, the cap charge for the bonus amounts to $2MM per year for cap purposes, rather than $8MM in year one. 

There’s an obvious benefit to kicking the can down the road, but it can also hurt teams if they want to terminate that deal. If the club in the above scenario wanted to release the player in the second year of his contract, it would still have to account for that remaining prorated bonus money. Rather than counting on the cap as $2MM per year for two seasons, that dead money “accelerates,” and applies to the cap for the league year in which the player is released. In other words, the remaining $4MM in prorated bonus money immediately counts against the cap.

Although these rules apply to many cuts, a different set of rules is in place for players released after June 1. In that case, a team can spread the cap hit across two seasons rather than one — for the current season, the prorated bonus figure stays at its original amount, with the remaining bonus balance accelerating onto the following season. Referring again to the above scenario, that means the player would count against the cap for $2MM in the league year in which he was cut, with the remaining $4MM applying to the following league year.

The guidelines for pre-June 1 and post-June 1 cuts are fairly straightforward, but things become a little more complicated when we take into account that teams are allowed to designate up to two players as post-June 1 cuts even if those players are released before June. This offseason, we’ve seen a handful of players designated as post-June 1 cuts: Trey Burton (Bears), Desmond Trufant (Falcons), Trumaine Johnson (Jets), and Todd Gurley (Rams).

In the case of Johnson, the Jets were initially slated to pay him $11MM in base salary this year. Under typical circumstances, the release would have left Gang Green with a $12MM dead money obligation for 2020. However, through the post-June 1 designation, they will unlock $11MM in cap space starting on Tuesday with just $4MM in dead money this year. In 2021, they’ll be faced with the remaining $8MM charge.

Because the cap charge for the current league year isn’t reduced until June, designating a player as a post-June 1 cut hasn’t been hugely advantageous for teams historically. Typically, by June, just about every notable free agent is off the board. However, this year is a bit of a different story – Jadeveon Clowney, Logan Ryan, Larry Warford, and other notable vets are still on the board.

Free agent opportunities aside, releasing a player in the spring and designating him a post-June 1 cut can be mutually beneficial for a player and his team. It allows the player to hit the market when potential suitors still have cap room and are still looking to add free agents, and it allows the club to spread out the player’s cap charge without having to actually wait until June 1 to release him — waiting until that point could mean paying roster or workout bonuses in the interim. Additionally, even if the team doesn’t need that June cap space for free agency, it can come in handy for signing draft picks.

A couple loose ends related to post-June 1 cuts:

  • The same rules applying to players who are released apply to players who are traded — if a team trades a player after June 1, his remaining bonus money can be spread out over two seasons. However, a club can’t designate anyone traded prior to June as a post-June 1 player.
  • Teams cannot designate post-June 1 cuts during the final league year of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
  • This year, NFL teams were bracing for the possibility of not having the post-June 1 cut at their disposal, due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement. However, the NFL and the NFLPA ensured the 2020 post-June 1 cut and many years of labor peace with a brand new CBA.

Poll: Should NFL Change Onside Kick?

May 29th, 2020 at 6:04pm CST by Sam Robinson

More support for a rule change that would significantly diminish the onside kick’s impact on the game emerged this week. The NFL discussed a proposal that would give teams the opportunity to attempt 15-yard conversions to keep the ball, rather than try onside kicks. Although the league tabled the proposal, ownership was nearly dead-even on it.

This year’s fourth-and-15 proposal — which would have given teams the option of trying two 15-yard conversions (on untimed downs) per game — is believed to have received support from 16 teams, whereas the other half of the league was against. Steelers owner Art Rooney II represented one of those against, calling it “gimmicky,” but expressed support for finding a way to change the onside kick.

Since the NFL prevented kicking-team players from receiving running starts before onside kicks take place, the play has become a less relevant part of the game. Non-surprise onside kicks have been recovered at around a 9% rate since 2018, per NFL data and analytics head Michael Lopez.

From 2010-17, non-surprise onside kicks were recovered by kicking teams 13.2% of the time. Teams have converted third- or fourth-and-15 plays 16.5% of the time over the past 15 years, according to Warren Sharp of SharpFootballStats.com. While 2020 will increase the sample size for the current form of onside kick, the alternative scenario would seemingly provide teams better chances at making comebacks.

The sect of NFL owners who came out against the fourth-and-15 proposal did so because of concerns it would threaten the kickoff’s place in the game. Both of the past two spring-league efforts — 2019’s Alliance of American Football and 2020’s XFL reboot — did not use the NFL’s kickoff setup, with the AAF removing the play altogether and the XFL using a creative format that placed everyone but the kicker and return man five yards apart to reduce the chances of high-speed collisions. The NFL made an effort to do the same nine years ago by moving the kickoff back to the 35-yard line — after it stood at the 30 from 1994-2010. This increased the touchback rate. The onside kick, however, will remain in place for another season. Is it on borrowed time?

Should the NFL move toward introducing a fourth-and-15 sequence (or a similar play involving the offense) to replace the onside kick? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

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