HEADLINES

PFR Originals News & Rumors

PFR Originals: Texans, Broncos, Ravens

August 11th, 2024 at 10:12pm CST by Ely Allen

Here is a rundown of the latest original content from PFR:

  • In the last two weeks, we’ve seen a few of the latest issues from our Offseason in Review series. Sam Robinson started us off with an in-depth look at the Texans‘ offseason activities. Bolstered by the belief that they have found their franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud, Houston decided it was time to go all in, trading for weapons like Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon and amending both players’ contracts. They also extended wide receiver Nico Collins, further securing their arsenal of weapons. Their gains in the offseason seem to have outweighed their losses, but they’ll have some larger-than-life expectations to live up to in 2024.
  • A couple of days later, Sam followed that up with a look at the Broncos‘ Offseason in Review edition. It started to look a bit like a rebuild with Denver letting Russell Wilson and Jerry Jeudy leave. Drafting rookie Oregon quarterback Bo Nix and trading for former Jets passer Zach Wilson, along with some contract restructures, showed the direction that head coach Sean Payton and company seem to be headed in Year 2 on the job.
  • Finally, Adam La Rose contributed another issue, diving into the offseason activities of the Ravens. As we tend to see with successful teams, there was a mass exodus from Baltimore this offseason as coaches and players became coveted after the team’s 13-4 campaign. The offseason saw four staffers earn promotions to general manager, head coach, and defensive coordinator. The team also lost several key contributors on both sides of the ball like Odell Beckham Jr., Gus Edwards, Patrick Queen, and Jadeveon Clowney. With the only big addition being that of running back Derrick Henry, most of the team’s offseason was focused on retaining top talent and filling the newly vacated roles with players already on the roster.

5 Key Stories: 8/4/24 – 8/11/24

August 11th, 2024 at 4:52pm CST by Adam La Rose

With exhibition contests underway around the league, the 2024 regular season is nearing. Plenty of key developments continue to take place in the NFL as teams sort out a number of unsettled contract matters. In case you missed any of the past week’s top stories, here is a quick recap:

  • 49ers Extension, Steelers Trade Remain Options For Aiyuk: The past few days have produced a new round of updates on Brandon Aiyuk’s future. The second team All-Pro was reported to be the subject of trade agreements with the Browns and Patriots, although New England is now out of the running. Cleveland’s package to San Francisco would have included Amari Cooper and a pair of draft picks, but Aiyuk is not interested in a Browns extension. That is the case for the Steelers, though, and Pittsburgh has re-engaged in talks. To date, no agreement has been reached in terms of a trade with the 49ers or a long-term deal, one which would pay the 26-year-old roughly $30MM per year. As San Francisco continues to entertain offers (and seek a receiver in return from any trade partner), the team is also still attempting to work out an extension which will keep Aiyuk in the Bay Area for the long-term future. A deal on that front, or a trade sending him to Pittsburgh, remain the likeliest outcomes in this fluid situation.
  • Werner Lands Saints Extension: A number of veterans are set to again hold key roles on the Saints’ defense in 2024, but linebacker Pete Werner is among the ascending talents also in line for first-team duties. The 25-year-old inked a three-year extension worth a base value of $22.5MM, keeping him in the fold through 2027. Werner saw notable playing time as a rookie and has served as a full-time starter over the past two years. He set a new career high in tackles (90) last season, and expectations will remain high moving forward. The former second-rounder received a practical guarantee of roughly $17.5MM on his new deal, and he will join free agent addition Willie Gay as a central figure on the Saints’ defense this year.
  • Patriots Release Smith-Schuster: The Patriots’ 2023 investment in JuJu Smith-Schuster did not pay off, and it resulted in a separation. New England released the veteran wideout, incurring a dead money charge of $7MM in the process. 2023 saw him produce only 260 yards and one touchdown while struggling to remain healthy. Smith-Schuster, 27, is in better shape from a health perspective now but he was already known to be on the roster bubble. The Patriots added at the WR spot via free agency (K.J. Osborn) and the draft (Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker) this offseason, the first of the Eliot Wolf-Jerod Mayo regime. Efforts to land Calvin Ridley and Brandon Aiyuk were unsuccessful, but Smith-Schuster will nevertheless need to find a new team in the coming weeks. The latter’s next contract will no doubt be less valuable than the $25.5MM one he signed last offseason.
  • Prescott Seeking Historic AAV; Cowboys Making Progress On Lamb Talks? Speculation continues to swirl regarding how the Cowboys will sort out extension talks with quarterback Dak Prescott and receiver CeeDee Lamb. The former is reportedly attached to an asking price above $55MM per season; that would make his next deal the most lucrative one in league history in terms of AAV. Prescott cannot be franchise tagged next year, holds a no-trade clause and is set to carry major cap hits in 2024 and ’25. While no deal on that front appears imminent, the Cowboys may be closer to inking Lamb. Jerry Jones does not feel a sense of urgency in getting a deal done with the All-Pro, one which will reach or at least approach the top of the receiver market ($35MM per year). A Micah Parsons mega-extension looms next year, but at least one major pact could be on the books by that point.
  • Chiefs Extend Butker: A number of extension priorities remain in the waning weeks of the summer for the Chiefs, but one has been taken care of. Kansas City worked out a four-year, $25.6MM deal with kicker Harrison Butker. He is now the league’s highest-paid kicker in terms of annual compensation ($6.4MM) and guarantees ($17.75MM). The 29-year-old has proven to be a highly consistent contributor during his career, one in which he has posted a field goal accuracy rate of at least 88.9% five times in six years. Butker (who was set to enter a walk year) has proven to have one of the strongest legs in the league, and he will be counted on to remain a key contributor for the defending champions for years to come.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

August 5th, 2024 at 9:31pm CST by Adam La Rose

With Lamar Jackson’s extension taken care of, the Ravens entered the 2023 season with renewed expectations. For the second time since Jackson took over as a full-time starter, Baltimore earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the superstar quarterback took home the MVP award. The team’s run came to an underwhelming end with a home loss to the Chiefs in the AFC title game, however.

In the months following that defeat, the Ravens have endured a number of notable departures at all levels of the organization. Changes on the field, along the sidelines and in the front office will leave Baltimore depending on several new faces in 2024. Many members of the team’s core remain in place, though, and as such the Ravens can be counted as a contender in the AFC North and beyond.

Trades:

Moses entered the offseason as a cut candidate, so it comes as little surprise he will not be back for 2024. Baltimore was able to add draft capital by sending him back to New York. The 33-year-old served as the Jets’ right tackle starter for 2021, a role he is set to reprise upon his return. The deal cleared $5.5MM in salary for the Ravens, though the team’s setup at the RT spot is one of several questions up front during training camp.

Moses has remained durable throughout his career; the three games he missed in 2023 were the most he was sidelined for since his rookie campaign (2014). The former third-rounder drew strong Pro Football Focus reviews for the fourth consecutive year last season, and he will be expected to provide consistent play in his second Jets stint. His ability to do so will determine his market in free agency next March on a New York re-up or a pact allowing him to join another new team.

Free agency additions:

General manager Eric DeCosta made it abundantly clear during the offseason running back additions would be a priority, and the 2024 free agent crop presented him with several options to choose from. Baltimore emerged as one of several suitors for Saquon Barkley, but it came as no surprise inside or outside the organization Henry was the team’s ultimate acquisition. In terms of pedigree, the latter comfortably represents the most notable new face brought in this offseason.

In the time since Jackson’s rookie campaign (2018), the league’s preeminent dual-threat quarterback ranks ninth in the league in rushing yards. Across that same span, Henry leads the NFL in production on the ground – by a margin of over 1,750 yards. The longtime Titan was named as a target of trade interest for the Ravens ahead of the 2023 deadline. An agreement was reportedly reached, with Tennessee’s ownership vetoing the trade.

Titans GM Ran Carthon has offered a denial on that point, but mutual interest existed between Henry and the Ravens in the build-up to free agency. The two-time rushing champion was also linked to the Cowboys, but Dallas’ decision to allow Tony Pollard to depart was not followed up by a Henry offer. The team was not active on the veteran market until a reunion with Ezekiel Elliott after the draft.

While Henry was surprised to not be on the Cowboys’ radar, he echoed the interest he had dating back to 2023 when reflecting on his Baltimore free agent process. The 30-year-old will receive all but $1MM of his guaranteed money this season, a sign of hesitancy on the Ravens’ part to make a long-term commitment. Henry has led the NFL in carries during each of his last four healthy campaigns, and he is positioned for a heavy workload once again in his new home.

Expectations will nevertheless be high for team and player with Baltimore having made by far the most high-profile backfield addition of the Jackson era. Henry’s acclimation to his new environment will be a critical factor in the Ravens’ ability to remain among the league’s most productive offenses.

As he foreshadowed, Eddie Jackson hit free agency after being let go by the Bears. He needed to wait until just before the start of training camp to find a deal, joining a number of veteran safeties in spending a long time on the open market. Another one – Jamal Adams – visited the Ravens, but he ultimately signed in Tennessee before Jackson was added.

The latter has started each of his 100 career games, but he will be competing for the No. 3 safety role in Baltimore. The Ravens used three-safety looks a number of times last year, and the departure of Geno Stone created a vacancy for the role behind Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton on the depth chart. Jackson, 30, struggled in coverage last season but former Bears teammate Roquan Smith endorsed his arrival in Baltimore. He will aim to parlay a change of scenery into a return to his previous form.

Board and Harty suffered a similar fate with their former teams this offseason, with both having been released in cost-cutting moves. The Patriots’ new regime does not value special teams as much as the previous one, and that stance paved the way for Board, 29, to return to the Ravens. A starting linebacker spot is not in play for Board, but he can reprise the integral third phase role he previously held with the team. Harty – a Baltimore native – earned All-Pro acclaim for his work in the return game during his rookie year (2019), and he is positioned to serve as the Ravens’ top returner.

Re-signings:

The Ravens have avoided big-money free agent additions along the edge during DeCosta’s tenure at the helm. Jadeveon Clowney joined Van Noy as a veteran brought in on a low-cost deal last offseason. The former matched his career high in sacks with the Ravens in 2023, while the latter set a new personal mark (nine) in only 14 games played and while logging just a 52% defensive snap share. Retaining at least one was a key 2024 priority.

Van Noy has remained consistent wherever he has played recently, totaling at least five sacks in each of the past five seasons (a stretch including three teams). The 33-year-old will have some stability during the latter stages of his career as he looks to replicate his success from 2023. Young options along the edge will face high expectations for Baltimore moving forward, but Van Noy will have a key role to play as well.

Agholor joined the Ravens on a one-year deal last offseason, but the presence of void years made an extension necessary for him to be retained through 2024 without dead money charges accruing. The former first-rounder operated as a complementary option in the receiving corps (one which, per usual, was not a unit built on a high-volume passing attack). Agholor’s 77.8% catch percentage in 2023 was by far the best of his career, and he should remain in a rotational capacity behind Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman on the WR depth chart for at least one more year.

Josh Johnson has had multiple stints with the Ravens as part of his whirlwind tour around several levels of pro football. The 38-year-old will occupy the backup role in 2024, positioning him for regular season game action in the event Jackson misses time. Johnson has made six appearances since 2021, with his lone start in that span coming during his most recent Ravens tenure.

Not unlike Van Noy, Maulet established himself as a veteran exceling in his role to a greater degree than expected during his debut Baltimore campaign. The former UDFA matched his career highs in pass deflections (five) and sacks (two) last year despite missing three games and logging a higher snap share on special teams than on defense. The Ravens have a number of other cornerback options on the perimeter and in the slot, but Maulet should manage to remain a regular contributor in the latter capacity for at least the short-term future.

Read more

5 Key Stories: 7/28/24 – 8/4/24

August 4th, 2024 at 4:48pm CST by Adam La Rose

As training camps continue around the league, a number of big-ticket contracts have been worked out recently. More are likely on tap, but several notable pacts have ended speculation about players’ short- and long-term futures with their respective teams. In case you missed any of the top developments from the past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Buccaneers Extend Wirfs: The Buccaneers’ final major piece of financial business was taken care of with left tackle Tristan Wirfs agreeing to an extension. The All-Pro worked out a five-year, $140.6MM deal, making him the league’s top earner at both tackle positions. Wirfs has exceled on the right and left in his brief but decorated career, leading many to expect he would move to the top of the pecking order. The 25-year-old secured just over $88MM in guarantees, and he is positioned to remain Tampa Bay’s anchor up front for the foreseeable future. Wirfs attended training camp but did not participate in padded practices until the deal was in place, something he and the team expressed confidence in working out. Now that the contract has been finalized, the Bucs can turn their attention to other matters. Thanks to the fifth-year option, Wirfs is on the books through 2029.
  • Dolphins, Hill Agree To Restructure: Tyreek Hill’s desire for a new Dolphins pact resulted in a restructure agreement. The 2023 receiving leader landed $90MM over the next three years, including $65MM in guarantees. No new years were added to the pact, making this deal a unique resolution to Hill’s situation. No guaranteed salary previously existed after the 2024 campaign, leading to the five-time All-Pro’s attempts at securing a raise. His $30MM-per-year pact has been surpassed as the receiver benchmark this offseason, but the restructure ensures he will remain amongst the league’s highest-paid wideouts. Hill’s prior goal of topping the market was a factor in his trade out of Kansas City, but he made it clear he wanted to remain in Miami while adding financial security for the coming seasons. That goal has been met, and the Dolphins now have Hill, fellow receiver Jaylen Waddle and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa attached to big-money deals.  
  • Moore Signs Bears Extension: Keeping in line with a number of other receivers, D.J. Moore inked a long-term deal representing a raise. The Bears signed him to a four-year, $110MM extension which will keep him on the books through 2029. The 27-year-old enjoyed a career year during his debut Chicago campaign, and instead of playing out the last two seasons of his previous pact (which did not include guaranteed salaries) he secured over $82MM in locked in compensation. Moore will be joined at the WR spot by trade acquisition Keenan Allen and first-round rookie Rome Odunze, so his role in the passing game with quarterback Caleb Williams will be worth watching. Still, the ex-Panther should remain a focal point on offense after Chicago allowed him to jump the line in terms of other in-house extension priorities.
  • Decker Becomes Latest Lions Extension Recipient: The Lions have been busy working out monster extensions on the offensive side of the ball this offseason, and that effort continued with Taylor Decker. Detroit’s longtime left tackle signed a three-year, $60MM extension which will keep him in place through 2027 and includes just under $32MM guaranteed. The 29-year-old has spent his entire career in the Motor City, and he will join right tackle Penei Sewell in retaining his position for the foreseeable future. The latter is the league’s highest-paid right tackle, whereas Decker’s new deal moves him into seventh in AAV for blindside blockers. The Lions’ offensive line will once again face high expectations in 2024 as the team looks to build off the success of last season.
  • Godchaux Land Patriots Extension; Judon Resolution Nearing? Questions were raised at the start of training camp with respect to how the Patriots would proceed with defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and edge rusher Matt Judon. The former has joined the long list of in-house players who signed new deals this offseason, inking a two-year extension worth up to $21MM. Godchaux, 29, has been with New England for the past three years and has served as a full-time starter. His pass rush production has remained minimal, but his play against the run earned him a new deal two years after his previous extension. Judon, meanwhile, has returned to practice after a brief absence related to his lack of an extension. The situation between the four-time Pro Bowler and the Patriots appears to have improved, although Judon remains tied to $7.5MM in compensation for 2024, the final year of his pact. Whether or not the latest turn of events is quickly followed by an agreement will be worth watching closely.

Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos

July 31st, 2024 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

The quest to find a long-term quarterback has dominated Broncos discourse since Peyton Manning‘s 2016 retirement, and while the organization’s failures here were not particularly costly during the initial years following the all-time great’s exit, the most recent effort certainly was. As a result of the Russell Wilson tenure, the Broncos became a punching bag for a season before seeing some 2023 improvements drop their 2024 draft slot. Now, they are in Year 1 of a dead money abyss unlike anything any team has encountered.

Bailing on Wilson’s pricey extension set a record that will be difficult to break for the foreseeable future, and the Broncos are taking another swing at quarterback — this one handpicked by Sean Payton. Making other notable subtractions and contract adjustments after making strides under Payton, the Broncos will attempt to field a competitive team despite Wilson’s contract consuming a significant chunk of their salary cap.

Extensions and restructures:

The Broncos are still using the phonetically interesting Payton-Paton power duo. GM George Paton was the point man behind three of this decade’s worst decisions — the Nathaniel Hackett hire, the Wilson trade and then the QB’s extension — but the group he drafted in 2021 has developed nicely. Paton plucked starters Patrick Surtain, Javonte Williams, Baron Browning and Jonathon Cooper in his first draft, but the biggest success story is probably a third-round guard from the Division III ranks. Meinerz has been a regular starter in Denver since midway through his rookie year, and he became the first Paton-era draftee to see his contract extended.

Meinerz, 25, impressed at the 2021 Senior Bowl — a vital component of his rise, as the COVID-19 pandemic nixed the non-Division I-FBS levels’ 2020 seasons — and replaced an injured Graham Glasgow in 2021. Meinerz beat out Glasgow for the Broncos’ right guard gig in 2022 and graded as a top-10 guard, per Pro Football Focus, over the past two seasons. Excelling in the run game, Meinerz was probably the Broncos’ top offensive player during the Wilson years. The team will bet on upside, as no Pro Bowls are yet on the Wisconsin-Whitewater alum’s resume.

Although Louis Vasquez rewarded the Broncos, the team has struggled with guard payments over the past several years. Neither Glasgow nor Ronald Leary justified their high price tags under John Elway, and the Payton-Paton pair has now doubled down at guard. The team gave Ben Powers a four-year, $52MM deal in 2023. The ex-Raven appears locked in for at least two more seasons, as the team restructured his contract to create 2024 cap space. Bo Nix‘s rookie contract stands to help the Broncos afford big payments elsewhere on the roster, though Wilson’s $83MM-plus in dead money from 2024-25 undercuts that advantage.

Denver paying Meinerz also clouds Garett Bolles‘ future. Meinerz’s terms match Denver’s left tackle for the most lucrative O-line contract in team history, and with right tackle Mike McGlinchey also on an upper-crust contract at his position, it is fair to wonder if Bolles is entering his final season with the team.

Bolles, 32, is in a contract year and has angled for a second extension. No known negotiations have transpired. The Meinerz payment points to the Broncos rolling with three pricey O-line contracts and looking for Bolles’ successor next year. For now, Denver is the rare team with four eight-figure O-line deals on its payroll. This is in step with Payton’s approach in New Orleans, where early-round O-line draft choices and extensions were commonplace.

Sutton, 28, reemerged as Denver’s top wide receiver last season, overtaking Jerry Jeudy as Wilson’s favorite target. Snaring some snazzy touchdown receptions, Sutton played a central role in the Broncos’ five-game midseason win streak. With Jeudy traded, Sutton stands as more important regarding Nix’s development. Days before the Broncos made their Nix pick, Sutton lobbied for a contract adjustment. The Broncos have their top target at a below-market rate thanks to an extension (four years, $60MM) authorized back in 2021 — shortly before the 2022 offseason changed the position’s landscape — and the team did not give in.

Denver waited out Sutton, who showed for minicamp after missing the offseason program, and incentives became the endgame here. The team gave the seventh-year vet a $1.7MM incentive package, reminding of the Chargers’ low-level resolution with Austin Ekeler last year. Sutton can increase his earnings to $15.2MM this year but remains tied to a contract with just $2MM guaranteed for 2024 and no guarantees in place for 2025.

As a vested veteran, the rest of Sutton’s $13MM base salary will become guaranteed just before Week 1. But the long-running trade candidate — teams called on the former second-rounder in April and figure to again soon — was unable to secure a notable contract update, putting the pre-Payton pickup’s long-term Denver future in doubt.

Patrick, 30, has managed to hang around despite two season-nullifying injuries. After serving as a key target for Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, Patrick did not play a down with Wilson. After summer ACL and Achilles tears, the former UDFA — the second-longest-tenured Bronco, behind Bolles — accepted a pay cut down to the veteran minimum to stay. Patrick signed a three-year, $30MM extension days before the Broncos paid Sutton. The Broncos brought in Patrick under Elway, and despite his back-to-back 700-plus-yard seasons from 2020-21, the 6-4 wideout — healthy once again — is a wild card in this revamped position group.

Trades:

Rumblings of the Jeudy-Sutton tandem — after four years and incessant trade rumors together — separating emerged early this offseason. Jeudy trade rumors date back to the 2022 deadline, and they followed the former first-round pick into the 2023 offseason and up to last year’s deadline. The Broncos hoped the Elway-era draftee could help Wilson rebound in 2023, and they set a lofty asking price (a first-rounder) in trades last year. Before the deadline, Denver received an offer involving third- and fifth-round picks. Amid their midseason turnaround that included a win over the Chiefs just before the deadline, the Broncos declined and ultimately moved on for less months later.

The Browns are still betting on the 2020 first-rounder unlocking upside that did not materialize in Denver. Jeudy flashed crafty route-running chops and delivered a strong finish to the 2022 season but ended his Broncos tenure 0-for-4 in 1,000-yard seasons. In the Alabama alum’s defense, the Broncos featured five play-callers (three in 2022) and mostly below-average quarterback play during the inconsistent wideout’s career.

The Browns will pair Jeudy with Amari Cooper, and the AFC North club went as far as to extend Jeudy (three years, $52.5MM; $41MM guaranteed) and provide only incentives for Cooper, whose contract issue ended similarly to Sutton’s. Marvin Mims, who made some noise as a deep threat as a rookie but could not earn a steady role, will be given a good chance to replace Jeudy as a starter.

As the Jets attempted to clear salary to make room for Haason Reddick‘s contract, they dealt the Broncos a quality starter for next to nothing during the draft. Acquired in a salary-dump deal, Franklin-Myers became a more favorable Broncos asset after redoing his contract (now at two years and $15MM; $8MM guaranteed) post-trade. The Jets offered Franklin-Myers — a three-year starter for the team — a pay cut, but the seventh-year vet confirmed it was at a lower rate compared to his new Broncos salary.

The Jets had given Franklin-Myers a four-year, $55MM extension early during the 2021 season, and he started 52 games with the team. The former Rams draftee saw time both inside and outside in Robert Saleh‘s 4-3 scheme; in Vance Joseph‘s 3-4 setup, Franklin-Myers will line up as a D-end. Producing six- and five-sack seasons in 2021 and ’22, respectively, Franklin-Myers registered 48 QB hits over the past three years. He profiles as a low-risk upgrade up front and will form a veteran-laden D-line with Allen and D.J. Jones.

Paton had said the Broncos planned to acquire a veteran to join Jarrett Stidham, and weeks after the team looked into Sam Darnold, the trade for Wilson was finalized. Conflicting reports about a Broncos Darnold offer emerged, but the former Jets starter preferred the Vikings. After Minnesota gave Darnold a one-year, $10MM deal, Denver reached a salary-split trade agreement for Wilson.

Wilson fared worse than Darnold did in New York — to the point the Jets benched the former No. 2 overall pick three times from 2022-23 — and exited the offseason program as a long-shot candidate to land even the Broncos’ backup job. The Broncos would eat $2.73MM in dead money by cutting Wilson; they would take on $2MM by releasing Stidham. A Stidham cut would, however, save the team $5MM.

After a year and change in Payton’s system, Stidham looks to have a leg up on the erratic BYU product. A No. 2 overall pick being waived before his fourth season would represent an ignominious start to a career and place Wilson on the short list of biggest QB busts in NFL history.

Free agency additions:

A year after big-ticket deals for McGlinchey, Powers and Allen, Denver — navigating historic cap consequences — operated conservatively in free agency. Its most notable 2024 expense was a safety that will be expected to replace Justin Simmons (or try). The Dolphins took Jones in the 2020 second round and used him as a full-time starter in 2021 and ’22, but the Jevon Holland back-line tandem partner lost a competition to DeShon Elliott last summer.

Elliott started over Jones under Vic Fangio, though the former Broncos HC used Jones in three-safety looks. Elliott outsnapped Jones 967-542 last year, but the latter graded as a top-20 safety in PFF’s view. Also showing a blitz acumen under Brian Flores with five sacks in 2021, Jones will team with two ex-Texas Longhorn teammates — Caden Sterns and P.J. Locke — in Denver.

Spending nearly his entire career as an auxiliary Jared Goff target, Reynolds looks to be both insurance against Patrick not resembling his pre-injury version and Mims and fourth-rounder Troy Franklin not developing as the team hoped. Reynolds’ $4.5MM guarantee suggests a clear role. Not as explosive as Jeudy, Reynolds ranked 85th among wideouts in ESPN’s open score metric last season. The ex-Rams regular is known more for his long-range skills and run-blocking chops than being a pure separator, but he did tally 608 yards and a career-high five touchdowns last season. Though, Reynolds’ campaign ended with two drops during Detroit’s NFC championship game collapse.

Read more

Offseason In Review: Houston Texans

July 28th, 2024 at 10:09pm CST by Sam Robinson

Although more stunning turnarounds have occurred, the Texans’ 2023 ascent was particularly notable because of their roster-building approach under Nick Caserio. Outside of some 2023 payments along the offensive line, the GM had spent little during his tenure — one that featured numerous short-term deals for middling veterans. C.J. Stroud‘s emergence shifted the Texans’ car out of neutral last year, and their 2024 offseason reflected the opportunity the Offensive Rookie of the Year provides.

Gifted with a rookie-scale QB contract for at least the next two seasons, Caserio put forth by far his most active offseason by making multiple trades for skill-position starters and signing a host of defenders in free agency. Tabbed as a potential Super Bowl threat despite Caserio having made multiple HCs one-and-dones and having traded the team’s previous franchise quarterback during a rocky tenure, the Texans gave Stroud a much better roster to lead in 2024.

Trades:

Diggs wore out his welcome in Buffalo, and the second half of his 2023 season no longer justified the payment or the occasional headache. The Bills, however, took on a non-quarterback record dead money hit ($31.1MM) to move on; the Texans dangling a future second-rounder changed the AFC East champs’ mind. Buffalo has shifted to a receiving corps featuring considerable uncertainty; Houston suddenly has a locked-and-loaded top three with Diggs set to join Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

For much of last season, Stroud did not have many places to turn outside of Collins and Dalton Schultz. The Texans still made this work, inviting intrigue about how their Bobby Slowik-run offense will look now that Stroud has Dell back and set to join one of this period’s best route runners. The Texans having looked into Keenan Allen weeks before acquiring Diggs highlights a type of wideout the team identified, as the longtime Charger-turned-Bears addition joins Diggs in being among this era’s best separators. Diggs, 30, being more than a year younger than Allen helped create a higher price tag.

Diggs played a central role in Josh Allen morphing from raw talent to megastar. Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins were moved on the same day in March 2020. Buffalo needed to included a first-round pick to pry Diggs from Minnesota, while the Bill O’Brien-as-GM Texans did not collect a first from the Cardinals for Hopkins. The Bills ended up with the better asset, as Diggs ripped off four 1,100-yard seasons — two surpassing 1,400 — and missed only one game while with Buffalo. It is worth wondering how Allen will look without his No. 1 target, and with Diggs likely having multiple quality seasons left, how this trade affects Stroud’s trajectory will be a lead 2024 storyline.

The Texans agreeing to remove the final three seasons from a team-friendly contract is, at least, worth questioning. Only $3.5MM in guaranteed money remained on Diggs’ Bills-built extension beyond 2024, and the Texans shifted that figure to the ’24 season and turned the trade pickup into a 2025 free agent-to-be. The Bills made Diggs play two seasons on his Vikings-constructed contract before giving him a four-year, $96MM extension in 2022. This profiled as a flexible contract the Texans could have moved had Diggs not proved to be a fit in Slowik’s offense, but they now face the prospect of the asset leaving in 2025 without any compensation coming back.

A franchise tag will be prohibitive, checking in north of $27MM, and because Houston adjusted the contract, no compensatory pick would come back if Diggs leaves in free agency. While Houston created some cap space with the move, the team added void years to do so. If Diggs leaves in free agency next year, the Texans would be hit with $16.6MM in dead money. This represented an odd step, and while it was framed as a motivational tool for Diggs due to the 2025 payday that would await, it does not seem that outweighed the advantage the Texans would have by leaving his contract untouched.

Houston also took the step of preventing a Mixon release. Not only did the Texans send the Bengals a late-round pick, they gave an eighth-year back $13MM guaranteed at signing. Aaron Jones, who has been a more complete back than Mixon since going off the board three rounds later in 2017, only fetched a one-year, $7MM Vikings pact. Dalvin Cook, whose 1,585 career touches trail his 2017 draft classmate’s count by nearly 300, is out of the league presently. After the Bengals gave Mixon a substantial pay cut last summer, the former second-round pick did very well for himself this offseason.

Mixon’s 1,854 career touches are the third-most among active RBs — behind Ezekiel Elliott (2,421) and Derrick Henry (2,185). At 28, Mixon is two years younger than Henry and nearly two years Jones’ junior. But the Texans are making a notable bet here, as only Saquon Barkley ($26MM) and D’Andre Swift ($14MM) secured more at signing than Mixon did this offseason.

The Mixon trade came to pass after the Texans offered Barkley more than $11MM per year, illustrating Caserio’s commitment to upgrading in the backfield after the 2023 team ranked 22nd in rushing (29th in yards per carry). Barkley said the Texans piqued his interest early, but it appears likely Houston did not match Philadelphia’s $26MM guarantee at signing. The Texans also pursued Swift and Tony Pollard. Both Barkley alternatives are better in the passing game compared to Mixon, though they offer less between-the-tackles muscle.

A four-time 1,000-yard rusher, Mixon did accumulate 376 receiving yards last season and 441 in 14 games in 2022. He has not averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry since 2018. The Texans, who saw Dameon Pierce take a notable step back last season, will bet on the Oklahoma product having some gas left in the tank. The Bengals appear to be betting against that, deeming Mixon not worth a $3MM bonus due on the back end of his reworked two-year, $11.5MM deal.

The rare constant on all three Caserio-era Texans defenses, Collins signed three contracts in three years. The most recent — a two-year, $23MM extension — preceded a five-sack season complete with a career-high 18 QB hits. A former Cowboys second-round pick, Collins became one of Caserio’s biggest hits during a period featuring many dart throws on midlevel vets. The Texans ended up overhauling their DT crew, and Collins will play his age-29 season in San Francisco.

Extensions and restructures:

Unlike a few other teams with high-end receiver extensions to complete, the Texans did well to beat the Vikings to the punch. Houston extending Collins days before Minnesota reset the market with its Justin Jefferson windfall helped keep this contract more in line with those Deebo Samuel and D.K. Metcalf signed in 2022. Had the Texans waited for Jefferson’s guarantee avalanche to shake the lower tiers of the market, they probably would have needed to go beyond $32.12MM fully guaranteed and $52.12MM guaranteed in total.

A former third-round pick, Collins delivered one of this decade’s stronger WR breakthroughs by ripping off a 1,297-yard, eight-touchdown showing in Year 3. This came after the Michigan product failed to eclipse 500 yards in a season during the two Davis Mills-led campaigns. Tied to Texans teams largely playing out the string in the wake of the Deshaun Watson mess, Collins became a pivotal part of a Slowik attack that depended on him once Dell went down. Collins’ 191- and 195-yard games sans Dell helped Houston to the AFC South crown, and the team did well to finish this accord when it did.

Collins, 25, came in above Metcalf and Samuel in terms of AAV but still sits as the league’s ninth-highest-paid receiver. That number will continue to drop, as players like CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk are rewarded, and the Texans undoubtedly benefited from Collins not being a steady producer during Tim Kelly and Pep Hamilton‘s OC seasons.

Joining Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard by landing a three-year extension will give Collins another payday opportunity in his late 20s. For now, the Texans can comfortably fit this contract — and Diggs’ since-adjusted deal — due to the bargain Stroud brings while tied to rookie terms.

Free agency additions:

Showing interest in retaining Jonathan Greenard, the Texans effectively completed a swap with the Vikings during the legal tampering period. Greenard was one of free agency’s first commitments, joining the Vikings hours into the tampering period. Hunter-to-Houston rumors did not emerge for nearly a day, and the Texans needed to fend off the Colts for the productive edge rusher. Indianapolis is believed to have offered more money in total, but Hunter — who played high school football in the Houston area — chose a return to Texas on a contract that comes nearly fully guaranteed.

The guarantee percentage Hunter secured is rare for contracts this pricey, but after angling to reach free agency for a bit, the former Mike Zimmer-era Minnesota staple both collected a high guarantee and the chance to hit the market again at just 31. Still 29 despite going into Year 10, Hunter’s deal will overlap with the two additional seasons Stroud must be kept on a rookie pact. This qualifies as a splurge for Caserio, who did almost nothing of the sort during his early years as Texans GM.

After neck and pec injuries sidetracked Hunter from 2020-21, he rebounded to elevate the 2022 Vikings to a surprising 13-4 record and then built on that to create a big market. Still pursuing a playoff spot, the Vikings opted against trading Hunter at the 2023 deadline. He ripped off an NFL-most 23 tackles for loss last season to go with a career-high 16.5 sacks. After Greenard delivered his best season under DeMeco Ryans, Hunter brings both an extensive production history — after becoming the NFL’s youngest player to reach 50 sacks and earning four Pro Bowl nods in Minneapolis — and age-related stability opposite Will Anderson Jr. Hunter’s history should help the Defensive Rookie of the Year see better matchups.

An injury-shortened 2022 season limited Al-Shaair’s market, but the former Fred Warner/Dre Greenlaw sidekick created more interest after a prolific Titans season. Al-Shaair, who found another 49ers outpost under Ryans after following GM Ran Carthon to Tennessee, racked up 163 tackles — the most by a Titan this century — and two sacks in 2023. Al-Shaair was in San Francisco for both of Ryans’ DC seasons but played under the current Texans HC during his two years spent as 49ers ILBs coach. This helped explain why the former UDFA sought the Texans in free agency, and after not putting much money into the linebacker spot from 2021-23, Houston upped its investment to fortify its defensive second level.

Despite ranking sixth against the run last season, the Texans rebooted at defensive tackle. They pursued Arik Armstead, but the nine-year 49er opted to rejoin the GM that drafted him — Trent Baalke — and sign with the Jaguars. Houston also showed interest in Christian Wilkins but may well have exited that race once the Raiders offered a staggering guarantee ($82.75MM). Lower-cost cogs signed up instead, with Autry’s deal more of a one-year contract with an option. The Jags had released Fatukasi, while Settle was a rotational presence in Buffalo.

Read more

5 Key Stories: 7/21/24 – 7/28/24

July 28th, 2024 at 4:40pm CST by Adam La Rose

With training camps opening around the league, a number of big-ticket extensions were finalized in recent days. Not every player eligible for a new deal has one in hand at this point, though, leading to a few high-profile holdouts. In case you missed any of the top developments from the past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Packers Extend Love, Clark: Green Bay’s first few training camp practices did not involve quarterback Jordan Love taking part as he and the team continued to negotiate an extension. Shortly after reports indicated progress was being made, the parties agreed to a four-year, $220MM deal. Love, 25, parlayed his strong second half showing from last year into an accord including a practical guarantee of just over $140MM which will keep him in place through 2028. The 2020 first-rounder now sits in a tie for the lead in terms of annual average compensation ($55MM). Prior the Love deal, the Packers finalized a three-year, $64MM extension with Kenny Clark. The latter is positioned to remain the focal point of Green Bay’s defensive interior, as he has been for much of his eight-year career. Clark earned his third Pro Bowl nod in 2023 after recording a personal best seven sacks, and continued production will be expected of him for years to come.
  • Dolphins Finalize Tagovailoa Extension: Hours before the Love deal was in place, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins reached agreement on another QB mega-deal. Miami’s starter is set to collect just over $212MM in new money on his extension, one which is believed to consist of a three-year commitment in terms of guaranteed compensation. Tagovailoa is therefore set to remain in place through 2027 at a minimum as he aims to duplicate his 2023 success. While staying healthy for a full campaign, the 26-year-old led the league in passing and received his first Pro Bowl invitation last season. Miami will be counting on continued health and production under center while attempting to achieve more consistency on offense and take a step forward from last year’s wild-card exit. Tagovailoa will be a central aspect of those efforts for the foreseeable future.
  • Darrisaw Agrees To Market-Topping Vikings Deal: Two years remain on Christian Darrisaw’s rookie contract with the Vikings opting to pick up his fifth-year option this spring. Team and player worked out a long-term arrangement well before free agency, though, agreeing to a four-year extension worth $104MM. The $26MM AAV of the pact moves Darrisaw (who will collect at least $43.73MM in guarantees) to the top of the pecking order amongst blindside protectors. Penei Sewell’s Lions deal is the most lucrative tackle contract in the league, but Darrisaw will be counted on to remain a foundational member of Minnesota’s offensive core for the long-term future. The 25-year-old is on the books through 2029.
  • Jaguars Extend Campbell: Jacksonville worked out extensions for quarterback Trevor Lawrence and edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen earlier this offseason, and cornerback Tyson Campbell became the latest to secure a long-term investment. The latter signed a four-year, $76.5MM extension, making him the highest-paid corner amongst those without a Pro Bowl appearance. Campbell has been a full-time starter during his three years as a Jaguar, and his ball production from 2021-22 helped his value considerably. The 24-year-old struggled in coverage last year in particular, but the team has nevertheless ensured he will remain a key member of the secondary for the long-term future. The Jags are aiming to bounce back from last season’s second half collapse, and Campbell’s performance in 2024 will go a long way in determining their success in that regard.
  • 49ers’ Williams, Cowboys’ Lamb Staging Training Camp Holdouts: A few veterans have elected to skip the beginning of their respective teams’ training camps and incur daily fines along the way. Haason Reddick (Jets) is one of them, as is 49ers left tackle Trent Williams. Three years remain on the latter’s contract, but he is now seeking a raise. Williams, 36, has performed as expected during his four San Francisco campaigns, earning first-team All-Pro honors each of the past three years. The future Hall of Famer is due over $77MM over the next three years, but none of his remaining salaries are guaranteed. CeeDee Lamb, meanwhile, has followed through on his expected approach of skipping camp until he secures a monster extension. Dallas has other financial priories, but getting Lamb on the books at or near the top of the WR market is a key one. The Cowboys have a new offer in place, so a resolution could be reached soon.

Community Tailgate: Where Will Ryan Tannehill Sign?

July 21st, 2024 at 10:20pm CST by Rory Parks

Ryan Tannehill is easily the most accomplished quarterback remaining on the free agent market, though only the Steelers have been connected to him in any meaningful way this offseason. After Pittsburgh added Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as part of their QB overhaul, the only other report concerning Tannehill was one indicating the Broncos were not interested in him. The 2019 Pro Bowler has not suggested he has any plans to retire, and as training camps open up around the league, it is worth taking a look at some of his likeliest landing spots.

Tannehill, who will turn 36 in less than a week, revived his career in Tennessee after injuries torpedoed the final three years of his Miami tenure. The Dolphins traded him to the Titans in March 2019, and he took over for a struggling Marcus Mariota in Week 6 of the 2019 campaign. From that point through the end of the 2022 season, Tannehill compiled a 30-13 regular season record and led Tennessee to three consecutive playoff berths.

Unfortunately, that is when injuries once again began to take their toll. Tannehill was limited to 12 games in 2022, and after suffering an ankle sprain in Week 6 of the 2023 season, he lost his starting job to Will Levis. With Tennessee now looking to give Levis a chance to prove he can be the team’s franchise passer, Tannehill is looking for a new employer.

In Tannehill’s case, everything old could be new again, as the Dolphins profile as a logical fit for their former first-round pick. While the ‘Fins obviously have Tua Tagovailoa entrenched as their QB1, the southpaw comes with his own share of health concerns, and his current backups are Mike White and Skylar Thompson, who have nine career regular season starts between them. Tannehill would give an otherwise talented roster a legitimate chance to win in the event Tagovailoa is forced to miss time with injury, and he would be a natural fit in Mike McDaniel’s offense. Plus, he would not need to carry the team on his back; he would merely need to competently deliver the ball to the club’s bevy of skill position talent. 

Like the Dolphins, the Chargers might have a playoff-worthy roster with starting quarterback Justin Herbert under center, but all of that talent would be wasted if Herbert is lost for a significant period of time. With all due apologies to Easton Stick and Max Duggan, Tannehill would represent a clear and obvious upgrade to the Bolts’ quarterback room, and the team’s presumptive run-heavy approach under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman would mimic the Derrick Henry-centered attack that allowed Tannehill to thrive in Nashville.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, were in something of a rebuilding/retooling phase at this time last year, and they were content to have Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask go into training camp in a battle for starting QB duties. But now that Mayfield has reestablished himself as a viable QB1 and is coming off a divisional round playoff appearance, Tampa Bay is eyeing another postseason run. Although the Bucs have always spoken highly of Trask since they selected him in the second round of the 2021 draft, they may prefer a more experienced option in the event Mayfield should get hurt or should experience the type of regression that ultimately ended his Cleveland tenure.

The Rams, a surprise entrant in the 2023 playoff field who were narrowly defeated by the Lions in the wildcard round, did sign a veteran passer this offseason to serve as a backup to starter Matthew Stafford. Free agent acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo, however, has an extensive injury history and will miss the first two games of the 2024 season due to a PED suspension. Behind him on the depth chart is Stetson Bennett, a 2023 fourth-rounder who saw no action in his rookie season. While Garoppolo’s presence likely precludes a Tannehill signing for now, that could change if Garoppolo should struggle in camp or if he sustains another injury.

Again, Tannehill has not been formally connected to any of the above-named teams, so it is difficult to guess where he might land. Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

PFR Originals: Colts, Bengals, Toney, Cap

July 21st, 2024 at 9:58pm CST by Ely Allen

Here is a rundown of PFR’s latest original content:

  • On Wednesday, Sam Robinson continued our Offseason in Review series with a deep dive on the offseason activities of the Colts. With last year’s rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson and running back Jonathan Taylor both expected to be back and healthy in 2024, the losses of Gardner Minshew and Zack Moss should be minimized, especially with the addition of last year’s Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco, who will now serve as Richardson’s QB2.
  • Last night, Adam La Rose produced the next edition of the series with an Offseason in Review focusing on the Bengals. The new home of Moss, Cincinnati became a haven for backups craving a bit of the limelight. Moss is expected to be the starter after backing up Taylor in Indianapolis, and safety Geno Stone will finally get an opportunity to be a full-time starter after nabbing seven interceptions as the third safety in Baltimore last year. The Bengals did have a bit of trouble with contract negotiations in the receivers rooms as Tee Higgins is set to play on the franchise tag, and Ja’Marr Chase remains without a new contract despite several new deals for wideouts this offseason.
  • Ben Levine took some time to examine the roster situation in Kansas City and just how wide receiver Kadarius Toney fits into it. While Toney does have a pair of Super Bowl rings thanks to his time with the Chiefs, it’s hard to say that he’s made enough contributions to justify a roster spot in 2024.
  • For the fans of NFL finances, Sam put out two originals focused on notable salary cap situations this week. First, he took a look at the 25 defensive players with the largest cap hits in 2024, highlighted by a number of elite pass rushers who may be looking into extensions in the near future to lessen their cap impact in the final years of their current deals. The next day, Sam shifted focus to dead money, showing the 24 players who represent dead money hits of $10MM or more. New Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson led the way by leaps and bounds with a $53MM dead money hit being attributed to his former team in Denver for next season.
  • Lastly, Rory Parks hosted a Community Tailgate this morning, inviting discussion in the comments about where veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill could end up in free agency. One intriguing possibility saw Tannehill returning to South Beach, his home for the first seven years of his NFL career, as a backup to Tua Tagovailoa. It seems likely that his time as a starter in the NFL has come to an end as most of the options discussed entail a position battle for a backup position.

5 Key Stories: 7/14/24 – 7/21/24

July 21st, 2024 at 2:32pm CST by Adam La Rose

The NFL’s brief downtime is set to come to an end with training camps about to open around the league. The past few days have already seen a number of key developments take place, however. In case you missed any of the top stories from the past seven days, here is a quick recap:

  • Aiyuk Requests Trade Amidst Stalled 49ers Talks: Throughout the offseason, Brandon Aiyuk and the 49ers have been unable to gain traction on extension talks. The pending free agent receiver has now submitted a trade request, although to no surprise San Francisco does not intend to deal him. Speculation has swirled during recent months regarding the 26-year-old’s future given the gap between his asking price and the team’s valuation of him. At least five teams were prepared to pay Aiyuk roughly $28MM per season upon trading for him at the draft, and the Patriots have remained interested since the window for a swap appeared to close. The start of training camp is a soft deadline for the 49ers to hammer out a contract, but they have experience with lengthy summer holdouts in recent history; team and player will hope this latest episode also results in a deal.
  • Broncos, Meinerz Agree To Extension: Three years into an unexpectedly successful NFL career, Quinn Meinerz has landed a sizable second contract. The 25-year-old guard agreed to a four-year, $80MM extension with the Broncos featuring $45MM guaranteed. A Division III product, Meinerz became a starter midway through his rookie campaign and has established himself as one of the league’s top guards since then. Denver has responded with the most lucrative O-line investment in team history, one made more notable by the expensive pacts already on the books up front. Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers each signed big-ticket deals in free agency last offseason, and Garett Bolles is attached to a $17MM-per-year deal. The latter is a pending free agent, though, and the Meinerz commitment will add to further doubts about his future in the Mile High City beyond 2024.
  • Barrett Retires Prior To Dolphins Debut: The Dolphins appeared to have a high-end insurance option along the edge in the form of Shaquil Barrett, but he will not play in Miami in 2024. The two-time Super Bowl winner announced his retirement from the NFL after nine seasons in the league. Barrett, 31, served as a complementary player with the Broncos before seeing his production take off in Tampa Bay. Across five Buccaneers campaigns, he racked up 45 sacks and a pair of Pro Bowl nods. Barrett inked a one-year Dolphins deal with Miami seeking edge depth behind the rehabbing Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. Given his retirement decision, the team will lean more on veteran Calais Campbell and first-round rookie Chop Robinson this year. Barrett departs the NFL with over $83MM in career earnings.
  • Fitterer Joins Commanders; Wright To Depart: A pair of notable changes are set to take place in the Commanders’ front office in 2024. Scott Fitterer – who spent the past three seasons as general manager of the Panthers – will join Washington’s staff as a personnel executive. His tenure in Carolina did not go as planned, and the blockbuster trade for the 2023 No. 1 pick and the handling of the Brian Burns situation will hurt his chances of landing a future GM gig. He will nevertheless be an experienced voice this year, one which will be Jason Wright’s last in the nation’s capital. The latter has resigned as president (the title he held since 2020) and he will depart the team no later than the end of this season. Wright’s absence after guiding a transition away from the Dan Snyder era will be felt as new owner Josh Harris moves forward.
  • Cowboys Prioritizing Lamb Over Prescott? The Cowboys have several big-money decisions to make in the near future. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are both set to enter the final year of their respective deals, and the former had been thought to be the higher priority ahead of training camp. The most recent report on the matter points to a Lamb extension actually being the top item on the to-do list, however. The receiver market has surged past $30MM per season this year, with Justin Jefferson’s $35MM AAV leading the way. Coming off a franchise record-setting campaign, Lamb could look to match that deal or at least come close to its value and guaranteed money. The 25-year-old skipped all spring workouts, and staying away from training camp is a distinct possibility. The progress of extension talks will thus be worth watching closely over the coming days.
Load More Posts